• Save
Creative Modeling for Tech Visionaries
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Like this? Share it with your network

Share

Creative Modeling for Tech Visionaries

  • 3,397 views
Uploaded on

Introductory presentation from course of the same name. Discusses challenges of creative new product design, importance of qualitative models & little quantitative models.

Introductory presentation from course of the same name. Discusses challenges of creative new product design, importance of qualitative models & little quantitative models.

More in: Business , Technology
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to comment
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
3,397
On Slideshare
3,394
From Embeds
3
Number of Embeds
1

Actions

Shares
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
1

Embeds 3

http://entrepreneurialengineer.blogspot.com 3

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Creative Modeling for Technology Visionaries Qualitative & Simplified Quantitative Modeling for Product Creation Module 1: Modeling for Postmodern Product Design David E. Goldberg University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Urbana, Illinois 61801 [email_address]
  • 2. Welcome to CMTV
    • CMTV = Creative modeling for technology visionaries.
    • Companion to TEE = The Entrepreneurial Engineer.
    • Traditional modeling increasingly inadequate for product design.
    • Where do we turn?
  • 3. My Background
    • BSE & MSE in early 70s at Michigan.
    • Worked in small startup in 1976.
    • Returned to school for PhD.
    • Sidetracked by research/teaching career at Alabama and Illinois.
    • Better known work on genetic algorithms and computational innovation.
    • Currently Jerry S. Dobrovolny Distinguished Professor in Entrepreneurial Engineering.
    • Chief Scientist for Nextumi, www.nextumi.com .
    • Broadly interested in history, philosophy, business & economics.
  • 4. This Module
    • Three current needs:
      • The need for technology visionaries.
      • The need for creativity.
      • The need for simplified qual-quant modeling.
    • Review of course topics:
      • Creativity & technology visionaries
      • Postmodern modeling and engineering knowledge.
      • Qualitative models.
      • Little quantitative models.
  • 5. Need for Technology Visionaries
    • Term TVs comes from UIUC research by Ray Price and Bruce Vojak.
    • Finding that a small number of technologists & engineers responsible for large amount of product success.
    • Creative in their approach to technology, organizations, and markets.
    • This course grew out of GA work & conversations about TV research.
    Ray Price
  • 6. Engineering and Science Different
    • Used simplified quantitative modeling to develop scalable genetic algorithms.
    • Discussed connection to methodology of invention of the Wright brothers.
    • Needs of design places premium on search for alternatives and configuration.
    • Also requires design decomposition, a qualitative decomposition of problem
  • 7. Chief Scientist in a Web Startup
    • Interested in commercial potential of genetic algorithms.
    • Asked to evaluate an idea inspired by my book on genetic algorithms.
    • Ended up as co-founder and chief scientist.
    • Unsettling to design product that has not existed.
    • Philosophical reflection most helpful tool.
    • This inspired idea for course teaching creative modeling techniques
  • 8. The Need for Creativity
    • The times they are a changing.
    • Reaction to the cold war.
    • Technoeconomic forces.
    • Pink’s analysis.
    • Category creators, not enhancers.
    • Extant design methods assume existence of stable product categories.
  • 9. The Times They Are a Changin’ Bob Dylan, b. 1941
      • Work in brand new product categories.
      • Work in well established categories.
      • Work in organizations of all sizes and ages.
      • Work in large, well-established companies.
      • Work at disciplinary boundaries.
      • Work in well-defined disciplines.
      • Work as engineers & non-engineers.
      • Work as engineers.
    Engineering students today Engineering students used to
  • 10. A Reaction to the Cold War
    • We are in final days of the Vannevar Bush era.
    • Headed wartime Office of Scientific Research and Development.
    • Report, The Endless Frontier, set stage for NSF and ongoing funding of scientific research.
    • Curriculum, funding, P&T, and institution adapted to this change.
    Vannevar Bush (1890-1974)
  • 11. The Missed Revolutions
    • The paradigm was OK for WW2 & Cold War.
    • Engineering education slow to adapt to external changes thereafter.
    • Missed revolutions since WW2:
      • Quality revolution.
      • Entrepreneurial revolution.
      • IT revolution.
      • Conceptual revolution.
  • 12. A Technoeconomic Framework
    • The missed revolutions have been enabled by a number of technoeconomic effects:
      • Transport and communication improvements.
      • Transaction costs.
      • Network effects.
    • Understand these:
      • Puts past in perspective.
      • Helps project future trends.
  • 13. Transportation & Communications
    • History of 20 th century history of faster, cheaper communication & transport.
    • Communications: mail  telegraph  telephone  fax  internet.
    • Transport: horse  train  auto  airplane  jet plane.
    • Affects commerce directly: Example, Japanese onslaught of 70s facilitated by jet travel & faxes.
  • 14. Ronald Coase & X-Costs
    • Why has change been so relentless over past 50 years?
    • In institutional economics, a major determinant of organization size & structure are transaction costs.
    • Get up in morning and sell services to highest bidder? No, join organizations.
    • Using the free market is not free.
    • Relentless reduction in communication and transportation costs has reduced transaction costs over all of this century.
    Ronald H. Coase (b. 1910)
  • 15. Arthur & Network Returns
    • Reduced X-costs -> small is good:
      • Outsourcing.
      • Sticking to core competence as mantra.
    • Countervailing force: network returns:
      • Telecommunications.
      • Operating systems.
      • Interoperable search/advertising networks.
      • Big is better.
    W. Brian Arthur
  • 16. Future: A Conceptual Age?
    • Daniel Pink outlines four ages:
      • Agricultural age
      • Industrial age
      • Information age
      • Conceptual age
    • Each age rewards different skill sets.
    • New conceptual age rewards right brain—creative thought—in place of analytical thought valued in information age.
    • Quibble: Creativity + analytical not Creativity replacing analytical.
  • 17. The Three As
    • Abundance : Widespread material wealth has devalued merely functional stuff.
    • Automation : Widespread automation has routinized many jobs & trend is spreading to accounting, law, & other knowledge work.
    • Asia : Low cost, highly skilled workers in India & China can do more for less than knowledge workers in US.
  • 18. Left Brain, Right Brain Distinction
    • Roger Sperry’s experiments on split brain patients (removed corpus callosum).
    • LB, RB  right side, left side.
    • LB, RB  sequential, simultaneous.
    • LB, RB  text, context.
    • LB, RB  detail, big picture.
    • Premium on right brain function.
    Roger W. Sperry (1913-1994)
  • 19. 6 Senses (Skills) for WNM
    • Design : Beyond function to meaning.
    • Story : Beyond data to narrative.
    • Symphony : Beyond specialization to integration.
    • Empathy : Beyond logic to empathy.
    • Play : Beyond seriousness to lightheartedness, games, & humor.
    • Meaning : Beyond material plenty to transcendence & meaning.
  • 20. Category Creators v. Enhancers
    • Premium is on category creators —those who creates new categories of product and service.
    • This requires different skill set.
    • Right-brained thinking: integrative, creative, intuitive.
    • MFA + Engineer vs. MBA + Engineer.
  • 21. Need for Creative Modeling
    • Normal enhancement of existing categories.
    • Creation of new products requires return to basics.
    • New product creation demands
      • Asking and answering the right questions.
      • Language to discuss features.
      • Dimensionalization of product space.
      • Rough quantification.
      • Little quantitative models of essential product functions.
  • 22. Engineers Taught to Enhance
    • Key problem with engineering education today.
    • Taught to enhance.
    • Use fancy mathematics and science to refine existing product categories.
    • Age of opportunity  Opportunities at the frontiers.
    • More radical innovation is necessary for success.
  • 23. The Problem w/ Tabula Rasa
    • Tabula rasa = blank slate.
    • Tough to get started from TR.
    • Can talk about SUVs easily.
    • Features known.
    • Have language to talk about things.
    • Enhancement is about taking existing product category with known features, and making improvements within.
    • SUV recent category, but built on century of automotive progress.
    • This course is about modeling at the beginning, not at the end.
  • 24. Course Topics
    • Models of creativity
    • Brainstorming
    • What is a model? Modeling for TVs
    • Epistemology for postmodern engineering design
    • 2 techniques from Athens
    • Visualization and napkintalk
    • Canonical dimensionalization: Porter’s models
    • Creative dimensionalization: Facebook
    • Advice from the trenches
    • Aristotle revisited & the qual-quant shift
    • Little models
    • Golden-mean models
    • Patchquilt integration of little models
  • 25. Models of Creativity
    • Survey theories of creativitity.
    • Read Ray & Myers, Creativity in Business.
    • Extract key principles.
    • Course not general course on creativity, however.
    • Interested in models.
  • 26. What is a Model?
    • Engineers are inveterate modelers.
    • Rarely question what we mean by a model.
    • Will do so, and will look at the economics of models.
    • Will probe further into current questions of knowledge & existence (epistemology and ontology).
    John R. Searle (b. 1932)
  • 27. Techniques Borrowed from Athens
    • Qualitative modeling as we wish is basically a form of philosophical reflection.
    • Will borrow techniques from the masters of Greek philosophy: Socrates, Plato, Aristotle.
    Aristotle (384-322 BCE)
  • 28. Application to New Product Design
  • 29. The Qual-Quant Divide
    • Much knowledge about our species is not theoretically quantitative:
      • Philosophical.
      • Historical.
      • Spiritual.
      • Mythical.
      • Statistical.
    • The schism of 1920: B-schools went one way, engineering another (Wharton, 1881, Harvard MBA, 1921).
  • 30. First Quantitative Moves
    • Quantification of a dimension.
    • Little models.
    • Simple economic analyses.
    • Dimensional analysis: Lift & drag coefficients, scaling laws.
    • Simplified equations of motions.
    Moody diagram a patchquilt
  • 31. Bottom Line
    • Times demand more creative approach to engineering design.
    • Curriculum assumes existing categories and well known analyses.
    • Must break out of habits of mature technology.
    • Develop reflection and first analytical methods in systematic way for product success.