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Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
Electric bikes
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Electric bikes

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  • 1. Electric 2-wheelers in China:Impact on Future Vehicle Electrification Presentation to the CaFCP Working Group Sept 11, 2007 Jonathan Weinert, PhD Candidate, ITS-Davis
  • 2. Motivation & Purpose
  • 3. Motivation & Purpose1. China’s 2-wheeler market: unprecedented case of electric drive competing successfully against gasoline/ICEs
  • 4. Motivation & Purpose1. China’s 2-wheeler market: unprecedented case of electric drive competing successfully against gasoline/ICEs2. Important to understand why and whether this trend will continue
  • 5. Motivation & Purpose1. China’s 2-wheeler market: unprecedented case of electric drive competing successfully against gasoline/ICEs2. Important to understand why and whether this trend will continue3. Could this adoption lead to EVs in China?
  • 6. Table of Contents1. Introduction to electric 2-wheelers (E2Ws)2. Forces driving and resisting E2W growth in China3. Impact on vehicle electrification
  • 7. Part 1:Introduction to E2Ws
  • 8. FAQs of E2Ws Cost $150-300 Speed 25-40 km/hr Power 240-500 W Range 30-70 kmFuel Efficiency 70-80 km/kWh
  • 9. Motorized Vehicle Sales in China 15M Motorcycles Electric 2-wheelers personal cars 10MVehicles /yr 5M 0M ‘91 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06Source: E-bikes: Jamerson and Benjamin “Electric Bike World Report (2007 edition)”, Personal car & autos: China Bureau of Statistics 2006, Motorcycles: Ohara (2006), Honda Annual Report (2003 and 2006)
  • 10. Observed 2-wheel Vehicle Proportions in Chinese Cities 2006-2007 E-bike Motorcycle or scooter Bicycle 100% 50% 0% e _ du g an n y Ta s n W g g jin g rb jin n an ijin cit ag i’a i’a Jin ua an ng bu er eif an X i- Be zh Ti he ha Av su N ijia g C i- an l na ha Sh Sh io g an at Sh N- Sample Size: Total 7,933. Chengdu 487, Nanjing 224, Jinan 356, , Xian 193, Shanghai-city 3,226, Shanghai-outersuburbs 1,270, Tai An 219, Weifang 41, Tianjin 976, Shijiazhuang 600,Beijing 341- Data was obtained by measuring vehicle flow at various intersections throughout each city.
  • 11. Why E2Ws so successful in China?Timely convergence of 3 factors:• Many cities banned gasoline scooters/ motorcycles in late 90s• Incomes rising • majority of E2W users shifting from bicycle and public transit• E2Ws became cheaper as technology improved
  • 12. Well to Wheels Energy Consumption 15 Tank-to- Well-to-Tank Wheels 12 MJ/ 9 Motorcycle (50cc)100km 6 3 Electric 2-wheeler 0 Efficiency Raw Fuel Fuel Transmission Charging Vehicle Assumptions Extraction Production / Distribution Motorcycle 93% 83% 96% n/a 29 km/litre E-bike 90% 33% 93% 82% 75 km/kWhSources: Wang (2002), Cherry (2007), GM European Well-to-wheels Study (2002), Burke et al (2000). For reference, car consumes 330 MJ/100km WTW
  • 13. Vehicle Ownership in China (Based on Annual Sales Data) 200M Motorcycles Electric 2-wheelers 160M personal carsVehicles 120M 80M 40M 0M ‘91 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06Assumptions: Average vehicle lifetime: E2W=5yrs, MC=10yrs, Car=12yrs. Annual Sales data from China Bureau of Statistics 2006, Motorcycles: Ohara (2006), Honda Annual Report (2003 and 2006)
  • 14. Vehicle Well-to-Wheel Energy Demand 8.5B Vehicles Motorcycle (gasoline) (2006) E2W (Electricity, 75% coal based) 6.8B Personal Car (gasoline) 15M 33M 5.1BGJ 3.4B 120M 1.7B 0B ‘91 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 Assumptions: WTW Fuel Use (MJ/km): MC=12, E2W=1.9, car=33.2. Average VMT (km/yr): MC=4,300, E2W=3,000, car=14,000
  • 15. Levelized Cost of Common Private Transport Modes 15 Vehicle Purchase Fuel (or bus fare) Maintenance 10 Battery Replacement License Fee $/100km 5 0 Bicycle E-bike Motorcycle Compact carSource: Interviews with Shanghai e-bike and scooter retailers, Annual mileage from Cherry and Cervero 2006Assumptions: fuel economy: e-bike=15Wh/km, scooter=25km/l, compact car 10km/l. Fuel cost: gasoline cost=4.5RMB/l, electricitycost=8.6RMB/kWh, bus fare=2RMB/trip.Vehicle lifetime: bicycle and e-bike=7yr, scooter and motorcycle=10yr, car=15yrs.
  • 16. Air Emissions of E2Ws vs. Motorcycles Motorcycle E-bike 60 45g/km 30 15 0 CO2 CO VOC PM NOx SO2 (x10^-2 g/km) (x10^-2 g/km) (x10^-2 g/km) Source: Cherry (2007), Zhang et al (2001), and Meszler (2007)
  • 17. 2006 Worldwide E2W Sales China India Japan Europe SE Asia USA 14 million 0.7 millionJamerson and Benjamin “Electric Bike World Report” (2007) www.ebwr.com ”
  • 18. Batteries for E2Ws• 90% use valve regulated lead-acid (VRLA) • 7% Li-ion, 3% Ni-MH/Cad VRLA Li-ion Specific Energy (Wh/kg) 35 110 Energy Density (Wh/L) 86 170 Power Density (W/L) 240 350 Cost ($/kWh) 125 505 Cycle Life 300 800
  • 19. Part 2: Driving and ResistingForces for E2W Growth
  • 20. Methodology: Force Field AnalysisA tool for analyzing the forces pushing a system toward change and the forces resisting it Steps 1. Identify system of focus and boundaries 2. List driving and restraining “forces” 3. Determine inter-relatedness of forces 4. Chart force field diagram
  • 21. Forces Driving E2W Market GrowthRoot Cause Secondary Causes Resulting Force Modular Product Architecture Open-Modular E2W & Battery Performance & Industry Cost Improvement Module Technology Structure Innovation Options Module Standardization High Demand for Weak IPR “Low-end” Private Local E2W Protection Motorized Transport Policy SupportLarge lower classof bicycle/transit users Increased Travel Strained Public Demand Transit Rising Income Traffic Urbanization Local Congestion Motorcycle Bans HousingRestrictions Lifted Poor Air QualityNational Energy Nat’l E2WEfficiency Goals Policy Support Note: = inverse relationship
  • 22. E2W Cost and Performance: Signs of Innovation1. Battery & motor technology improved: 1. energy density (30%), battery lifetime (160%), motor efficiency (60%)2. E2W costs fell 30% from 1999 to 20063. Increased use of advanced battery technology in E2W (~0 to 10% by 2006)
  • 23. The E2W Industry Structure Closed-Integral Open-Modular A B Assemblers A B C X Y Suppliers X Y Z J K “vertical” “horizontal”Ge, D. and T. Fujimoto, Quasi-open Product Architecture and Technological Lock-in: An Exploratory Study onthe Chinese Motorcycle Industry, 2004
  • 24. Comparison of Industry Structures Closed-integral Open-Modular Steady accumulation of “Creative destruction” tacit knowledge within of many smaller firms, Driver of Innovation long-lived corporation simultaneous competition and cross-pollination Product development Top-down Bottom-up R&D capability high low Costs high lowCompatibility of parts between low high different brands and models Assembler barriers to entry high low Ohara, M., Interfirm relations under late industrialization in China : the supplier system in the motorcycle industry 2006 Steinfeld, E.S., Chinese Enterprise Development and the Challenge of Global Integration. 2002
  • 25. E-bike Industry Structure 1,680 E2W Assemblers KeyModules Battery Electric Motor Controller ~300 VRLA Brushless 100s MOSFET 100s Brush 10s Li-ion 10s Ni-MH
  • 26. Highly Modular Product Architecture • Major components “stand alone” structurally and functionally • Simple electrical information exchange between components • Flexible interfaces • wires, connectorsBaldwin, C. and K. Clark, Managing in the Age of Modularity. Harvard Business Review, 1997Ulrich, K., The role of product architecture in the manufacturing firm. Research Policy, 1995
  • 27. Advantages of Modularity in Manufacturing• Standardization of components ➡ cost reduced through mass production• Assemblers and suppliers independently design and produce components ➡ Rate of innovation increases because of enhanced competitive dynamics
  • 28. Forces Resisting E2W Market GrowthRoot Cause Secondary Causes Resulting Force Innovation in MotorcyclePoor Air Quality Exhaust After- treatment High Power Superior Motorcycle Strong Demand Engines Performance for Motorcycles Gasoline: widelyavailable, quick refuel Regulation Limiting E2W Lead Pollution Speed, PowerVRLA Battery Life Limitations Low-quality E2Ws ReducedLoose Regulationof E2W Standard Higher Traffic Safety/ E2W Bans Efficiency Power E2Ws Growth in Traffic conflict Local Support for Improved Public Rising Incomes Automobile between auto Transit Service Ownership and 2-wheeler Public TransitNational Automotive Industry Support Note: = inverse relationship
  • 29. Force-Field AnalysisDriving Forces Chinese 2-Wheeler Market Restraining Forces Local Motorcycle Bans Strong Demand for Motorcycles Performance & Cost Improvement E2W Bans Local E2W Policy Support Better Public Transit Strained Public Transit Limited E2W Growth Strong E2W Growth
  • 30. Part 3:Impact on Vehicle Electrification
  • 31. Transition to EVs Depends on...1. Continued battery cost and performance improvement2. Switch from VRLA to Li-ion3. Development of bigger, more powerful, more sophisticated vehicles.
  • 32. Technology Innovation• E2W application: serves as Li-ion battery technology “incubator”.• Cost, performance improvements
  • 33. VRLA vs. Li-ion Battery Comparison for E2W Assumptions: • 48V • 60km range (0.9 kWh) • 350W motor VRLA Li-ion Cost ($) 113 424 Mass (kg) 26 8 Lifetime (yrs) 3 9 Volume (l) 10 5 Recharging Safety high lowTemperature Effects moderate high
  • 34. E2W vs EVs: Power System ComparisonBattery pack capacity ( kWh) 0.8-1.0 5-10 Max Current (A) 20-30 270 Voltage (V) 48-60 48 Modules/pack (typical) 4-5 8 Cells in series 24 Peak motor power (kW) 0.5-1.0 13 Weight 70-90 700
  • 35. Product Line Expansion• Expansion into more powerful, sophisticated, higher-margin product lines
  • 36. Obstacles• Fundamental differences between E2W and EV battery systems 1. Size (Cost) 2. Safety (high voltage system, Li-ion battery recharging) 3. Cell Variability affects lifetime• Recharging Infrastructure
  • 37. Conclusions:• A modular product (with right political & market conditions) led to an open, decentralized industry • Intense competition: cost and performance improve• E2W industry expanding into bigger product lines. • increasingly competitive with motorcycles• Key is shift to Li-ion battery technology
  • 38. Acknowledgements• ITS-Davis, China Center for Energy and Transportation• Advisors: Prof. Joan Ogden, Prof. Dan Sperling, Dr. Andy Burke,• Collaborators: Chris Cherry, Chaktan Ma

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