What fundamentals drive world migration?
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What fundamentals drive world migration?

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CONTENTS
- Themes surrounding world migration and migration
theory
- The age of European mass migration
- What drives immigrants to the United States?
- Migration in and from Africa
- World migration and the future of South-North and
South-South migration

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    What fundamentals drive world migration? What fundamentals drive world migration? Presentation Transcript

    • What fundamentals drive world migration? Timothy J. Hatton and Jeffrey G. Williamson National Bureau of Economic Research September 2002 Presentation by Elia Mancinelli and Stefano Tombolini 16-17 April 2013 Welcome Intro Europe United States Africa World
    • 16-17 April 2013 Outline Contents Intro Europe United States Africa World ● Themes surrounding world migration and migration theory ● The age of European mass migration ● What drives immigrants to the United States? ● Migration in and from Africa ● World migration and the future of South-North and South-South migration
    • Introduction 16-17 April 2013 Introduction Intro Europe United States Africa World
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World ● How do the standard theories of migration perform when confronted with evidence drawn from more than a century of world migration experience? ● How do inequality and poverty influence international migration? ● Is it useful to distinguish between migration pressure and migration ex-post, or between the potential demand for visas and the actual use of them? Three questions Introduction
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World World migrants Year Total number of people Share of world population 1965 75 millions 2.3% 1990 120 millions 2.3% Introduction
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World Migrant stocks in the developed world 1965 1990 0 2 4 6 8 All developed countries North America, Western Europe, and Australasia Year % Introduction
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World This measure of the rising globalization of world labor markets is certainly impressive, but the rise in these migrant stock shares is still smaller than the rise in the trade/GDP ratio or the foreign capital/world capital stock ratio. Introduction
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World Poverty paradox ● Emigration rates of really poor countries are very low, while they are much higher out of moderately poor countries. ● One possible explanation for the paradox is that the structural and demographic changes coincident with industrialization generate more migration in early stages than later on. ● Another, not necessarily competing, explanation is that poverty constrains migration since financing investment in a long-distance move is difficult for the very poor. Introduction
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World Since World War II, what used to be “free” world migration has become tightly constrained by tough immigration policies that undoubtedly suppress a vast amount of potential migration that might otherwise have taken place. Introduction
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World Immigration policy is endogenous, probably influenced by the same forces that drive world migration pressure. One way to get useful answers about fundamentals is to compare the experience in the age of “free” migration before 1914 with “constrained” migration of more recent times. Introduction
    • European mass migration 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World European mass migration
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World More than 50 millions of migrants departed for the New World between 1820 and 1913. 60% 40% Destination United States Other (Other: Canada, South America, Australasia, and Southern Africa) European mass migration
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World Period Migrants per year 1846-1876 300,000 1876-1896 600,000 1896-1906 1,000,000+ European mass migration
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World Period Dominant source 1800-1850 Britain 1850-1870 Germany, Scandinavia, Northwestern Europe 1880-1890 Italy, Austro-Hungarian Empire 1890-1900 Poland, Russia, Spain, Portugal European mass migration
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World Who were migrants? ● Migrants were typically young and single: more than 75% of the immigrants entering the United States were aged 16-40, at a time when 42% of the US population was in this age group. ● About 2/3 of them were men. ● They were also relatively unskilled, but adventurous and enterprising. Why did they move? Some of them moved in response to famines, persecution or political issues, but the vast majority moved in response to economic incentives. European mass migration
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World Emigration rates ● Different average rates across countries: the highest were from Ireland, averaging 13 per thousand per annum between 1850 and 1913; Norway and Sweden had emigration rates approaching five per thousand from 1870 to 1913, while those from Germany were under two per thousand and France was close to zero. ● Different trends in rates across countries: emigration from Ireland declined from the 1860s, and from Germany and Norway it declined from the 1880s. Almost at the same time emigration from Italy and Spain began a steep ascent. European mass migration
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World The variability of decade-average emigration rates pooled across 12 European countries between 1860 and 1913 can be explained as a function of four key fundamentals. European mass migration
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World European mass migration
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World ● Differential mobility between urban and rural populations (as measured by the share of the labor force in agriculture): weakly negative effect; ● Wage gap (as represented by the PPP-adjusted real wage, source country to a weighted average of destinations): strongly negative effect; ● Demographic growth (direct effect, by rising the young adult share, and indirect effect, by glutting the home labor market): largely positive; ● Migrant networks (as proxied by the stock of previous emigrants): positive effect. European mass migration
    • Immigration to the United States 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World Immigration to the United States
    • Immigration to the United States 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World Immigration to the United States
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World Policy effects ● Until the 1960s, the dominance of Europe was favored by the national origin quotas introduced in the 1920s, especially for Britain, Ireland, and Germany. ● The Immigration Act (1965) abolished national origins quotas, replacing them with separate quotas for Western and Eastern hemispheres. ● Opening the door to poorer parts of the world produced a much larger pool of potential immigrants. Immigration to the United States
    • Immigration to the United States 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World A number of interesting factors emerge from the analysis of a panel of immigration rates into the US from 81 countries over the years 1971-1998. Immigration to the United States
    • Immigration to the United States 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World Immigration to the United States
    • Immigration to the United States 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World ● Relative income (PPP-adjusted per capita income, source country to US): significantly negative effect; ● Relative skills levels (years of education, source country to US): significantly positive effect; ● Return to skills (relative inequality, source country to US): inverted U-shape (peak at 1.33); ● Migrant networks (stock of previous immigrants): significantly positive effect; ● Poverty variable: negative effect; (Thus, a rise in source-country per capita income has two opposite effects.) Immigration to the United States
    • Immigration to the United States 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World ● Distance between source and destination country: strongly negative effect; ● Landlocked countries: strongly negative effect; ● English-speaking countries: strongly positive effect; ● Policy dummies:  Merging the Eastern and Western hemispheres quotas after 1976 sharply relaxed the constraint on immigration from Eastern hemisphere countries;  IRCA legalization program in 1989-1991 doubled the Mexican immigration rate during those years. Immigration to the United States
    • Migration in and from Africa 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World Migration in and from Africa
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World ● Considering that real incomes in Africa are a tiny fraction of those in Europe and North America, the incentive to emigrate should be huge, but the reality is far different… ● Three possible explanations for this apparent paradox:  OECD immigration policies;  Poverty constraint as a consequence of large income gaps for most poor Africans;  Africans are less mobile than other populations and they are inclined to return to their homeland as soon as possible, usually because of political issues. (ed. and they do rap…) Migration in and from Africa
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World The determinants of net migration to and from countries across sub-Saharan Africa can be inferred by demographic accounting, where net migration is simply calculated as a residual. However, we do not know where emigrants went or where immigrants came from, but the vast bulk of the movements across African borders are not overseas. Migration in and from Africa
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World Migration in and from Africa
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World ● Net outward movement of refugees: positive effect (although the estimated coefficient is less than one – crowding out?); ● Share of the home country population aged 15 to 29: positive effect; ● Relative income (PPP-adjusted unskilled wage rate, foreign to home): strongly positive effect; ● Growth of domestic output: negative effect; ● Poverty constraint: weakly negative effect. Migration in and from Africa
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World Poverty constraints were more important for migration out of Africa, since the poorer the family, the more likely its members would remain in Africa. Networks of friends and relatives influence the direction of these migrations. Migration in and from Africa
    • World migration 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World World migration
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World Despite the disproportionate attention that has been given to immigration pressures on the United States and other OECD countries, there have been other major migration streams around the world. The UN calculates annual average net immigration rates over five-year intervals for most countries. How well might a simple migration model explain a panel of five-year periods 1970-1975 to 1995-2000 for 80 countries? World migration
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World World migration
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World ● The share of population aged 15-29 in a receiving country has a negative effect on its immigration. ● The immigrant stock has a positive effect on net immigration. ● Refugee movements are captured by the share of years during which the country was embroiled in civil war. A civil war in the receiving region reduces annual immigration (chiefly through refugee outflows). World migration
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World ● The effects on total net migration of education- adjusted income gaps (home to foregin) relative to the world as a whole and within the region are positive, so that a rise in domestic income relative to the world and relative to the region both increase a country's net immigration. ● An increase in mean income has different effects at different income levels, the effect of increasing incomes at home for the poorest countries is to increase net emigration (poverty constraint effect). Africa is the only region where the overall effect of a rise in home income is negative for net immigration. World migration
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World Future trends are likely to be determined largely by policy choices. However, we can ask how migration pressure is likely to develop. World migration
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World South-North migration ● Demographic projections for African countries suggest that migration pressure should be increasing. ● Successful development in the Third World will most certainly release the poverty constraint. ● There is a growing imbalance between the shrinking young adult shares in the OECD and the rising young adult shares in the Third World. ● As foreign-born migrants increase as a share of total residents in high-wage countries, the pressure on annual immigration flows will rise too. World migration
    • 16-17 April 2013 Intro Europe United States Africa World South-South migration ● There may be more skills to learn in a newly industrial country's manufacturing job than in a post-industrial country's domestic service job, which is also farther away. ● These opportunities will most assuredly change the direction of South-North flows in a more South- South direction, easing the pressure on OECD migration policy, but creating new problems for the newly industrial countries. World migration
    • Thank you 16-17 April 2013 End Any questions? Intro Europe United States Africa World