Keynote presentation by Dean Bubley, at the Upperside conference on WebRTC, December 11-12 in Roissy, Paris. Covers forecast device support, use-cases, strategic issues & benefits, browser vs. mobile support & value chain trends

1. WebRTC Market Status & Forecasts:
Beyond the Phone Call
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
WebRTC Paris, December, 2013
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com
@disruptivedean

2. About Disruptive Analysis







London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm
Cross-silo, contrarian, visionary, independent
Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors
Covering VoIP since 1997 & 3G/4G mVoIP since 2007
Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012
Full report on WebRTC, Feb 2013, updated Jun & Oct’13
Workshops on Future of Voice & TelcoOTT
Twitter @disruptivedean
Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
Contact information@disruptive-analysis.com for details
on WebRTC analyst report & for speaking engagements
December 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

3. Intent & context....
Why do people make
phone calls (or send
messages, share media
or use video), anyway?
December 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

4. The chart you’ll never see… calls by “purpose”
Gossip
Meeting up
Flirting
Spam
Showing off
Work
Wasting time
December 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

5. Out walking
Different contexts
Using an app
Public transport
Living room
Board room
Bar
December 2013
& Multi-tasking
Concentrating
Drunk
Asleep
At work
Airline lounge
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

6. 1 OR 2 “UBIQUITOUS
SERVICES” CANNOT
FULFILL ALL THESE
PURPOSES WELL
(MORE LIKE “DUMB SERVICES” THAN
UBIQUITOUS ONES)
December 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

7. Fragmentation of communications models
Standalone
Circuit calls
Good to have “lowest
common denominator”
IP
Embedded
app/web
voice &
video
Non-call
comms
Maybe ubiquitous
in a niche
Ubiquity no/negative
benefit
December 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

8. The vision: voice & video comms everywhere
December 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

9. WebRTC & HTML5 are game-changers
Service
e.g. SMS, Telephony
Product
e.g. Lync, Uberconference
Feature
e.g. Business social
Function
December 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

10. Why is WebRTC important?










WebRTC is maybe most exciting thing in comms for 10 years
Already here & being used
A “movement” as well as a standard
“Democratisation” of voice & video into web & apps
Goes beyond traditional “call” model of user interaction
Low bar to experimentation (eg open-source)
Realtime data will be the real surprise
Not just about browsers
A new ecosystem for developers, telcos & cloud players
Billions of devices & users!
December 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

11. ... although not quite as “easy as it looks” yet
Signalling
Oct 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

12. 3-way support for WebRTC now expanding
Enterprise
Network
tools
Devices
WebRTC
Consumer
Web
Telco
TV &
gaming
Oct 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

13. View Oct’13: lead WebRTC use-cases
Early enterprise adoption
Live &
commercial
Initial consumer web apps/devices
Pilots / precommercial
Trials &
demos
December 2013
Verticals & corporate
Telco, Entertainment, M2M, other…
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

14. WebRTC supported on >4bn devices by 2016
Contact information@disruptiveanalysis.com for details on
WebRTC analyst report & for
speaking engagements
Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Strategy Report update October 2013
December 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

15. WebRTC rapidly expanding past “calls”
December 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

16. The future?
Sleep Apnoea (snoring + breathing) monitoring & diagnosis:
not a “phone call”!
December 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

17. Beyond browsers: mobile apps & API platforms
3000
Installed base, m
2500
Total WebRTC mobile devices
2000
- Browser support
1500
- Non-browser support
1000
500
0
Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Strategy Report update October 2013
December 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

18. For telcos WebRTC is really a magnifier/catalyst
Now
With WebRTC
Bigger opportunities
Worse threats
Faster speed
December 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

19. Main WebRTC strategies for SPs?
Extend onnet services
& IMS / SS7
Strengthen
enterprise &
verticals
Turbocharge
Telco-OTT
apps
TV, entertai
n- ment &
digital
services
Sell
packaged
WebRTC
services to
subscriber
Enhance
developer
platform(s)
December 2013
IMS should be <30% total
WebRTC effort &
investment. Too slow, too
call-centric
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
Also: invest / incubate
Improve own CRM & systems
Maybe M2M, devices etc

20. WebRTC about to fragment?
Javascript APIs
Original concept for
WebRTC
Standalone
PC or mobile
app
Now
Codecs &
network
& security
protocols
Codecs & network
& security
protocols
3rd party APIs
Codecs &
network & security
protocols
Browser
or apps
Native OS
APIs
OS
Codecs &
network &
security
protocols
Future
December 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

21. WebRTC made easier via 3rd-party APIs
CU-RTC-Web?
December 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

22. WebRTC in 2014: what to expect?

1.7bn WebRTC-supporting devices end-’14



Active WebRTC user base 600m




Some fragmentation is inevitable
Several major Internet players using WebRTC
Enterprise use-cases still leading, consumer catching up
Telco use patchy, centred on developers / Telco-OTT


Includes “lightweight”/background WebRTC usage
Apple & Microsoft weakly supporting WebRTC


Mobile devices almost 500m
Non-browser support growing rapidly
Slow deployment & uptake of IMS-integrated WebRTC
Surprises! Especially around data use of WebRTC
December 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

23. Contact
information@disruptiveanalysis.com for details
on WebRTC analyst
report & for speaking
engagements
www.disruptive-analysis.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
information@disruptive-analysis.com
December 2013
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013