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ITU Telecom 2013 Workshop: New Telecom Opportunities in Voice and Messaging

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Presentation slides from workshop run by Martin Geddes & Dean Bubley, at the ITU Telecom World 2013 conference in Bangkok, November 2013. …

Presentation slides from workshop run by Martin Geddes & Dean Bubley, at the ITU Telecom World 2013 conference in Bangkok, November 2013.

Covers the evolution of the "phone call" towards new forms of voice communication, the end of telecom services ubiquity, the rise of the OTT model, opportunities from Hypervoice, Telco-OTT services and the new technology of WebRTC. Also covers other areas of VoIP, IMS, SMS, RCS / joyn & the challenge for regulators and telco organisations

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  • Third wave of social web revolution:- “Social documents” - Web 1.0/hypertext- “Social messaging” - Web 2.0/hypermessaging- “Social conversations” - Web 3.0/hypervoice

Transcript

  • 1. New Opportunities in Voice and Messaging ITU Telecom World 2013, Bangkok Dean Bubley & Martin Geddes dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com mail@martingeddes.com
  • 2. About Disruptive Analysis         London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm Cross-silo, contrarian, visionary, independent Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors Covering VoIP since 1997 & 3G/4G mVoIP since 2007 Critic of RCS since 2008 Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012 Report on WebRTC, Feb 2013, updated Jun & Nov 2013 Workshops on WebRTC, Future of Voice & TelcoOTT Twitter @disruptivedean November 2013 Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 3. About Martin Geddes Consulting       Strategy consulting on broadband, voice and cloud services Industry thought leader – Sprint, BT, Telco 2.0 Focus on network performance and next-gen voice services Blogging and speaking on OTT and Future of Voice since 2003 Co-founder and Executive Director of Hypervoice Consortium Workshops on Future of Voice & TelcoOTT Twitter @martingeddes November 2013 Free newsletter: martingeddes.com Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 4. To learn more… www.disruptive-analysis.com www.martingeddes.com MORE November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 5. Declaration of relevant business interests  Martin:        Board member: Voxygen Client: HarQen Advisory board: VoiceSage Business advisor: Predictable Network Solutions Paid by Hypervoice Consortium members Many other consulting clients Dean:   Many research and consulting clients across telecoms ecosystem (too many to list them all here!) Advisor: Voxygen, Temasys, Movirtu November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 6. A map of the „new world‟ of voice November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 7. Agenda   Overview of the Future of Voice (Martin) The Death of Ubiquity (Dean)  Beyond telephony: Value-added voice & Hypervoice (Martin) Beyond telephony: WebRTC (Dean)  So what and what next for telcos?  November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 8. Overview of the Future of Voice
  • 9. Telephony is like a Marks & Spencer sandwich     Perishable product Beautiful packaging Own-branded only No personalisation  “Hold   November 2013 the mayo…” The highest quality… …but at a high price
  • 10. Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating 2003 … … … 2011 … 2013 … 2015 “Telepocalypse” November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 11. Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating 2003 … … … 2011 … 2013 … 2015 Slow growth of OTTs & UC Slow shift of TDM to IP for voice Lots of good ideas, hard to implement Broadband and smartphone explosion… …but no change to core telephony offer November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 12. Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating 2003 … … … 2011 … 2013 … 2015 First Future of Voice Workshop November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 13. Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating 2003 … … … 2011 … 2013 … 2015 Today November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 14. Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating Two years ago Now Volume & value Predicting declines in “peak telephony” mature markets November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 15. Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating Two years ago Now Risk of voice over-supply Risk of voice under-demand November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 16. Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating Two years ago Now OTT = threat OTT = opportunity November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 17. Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating Two years ago Now Voice-in-apps as concept APIs, WebRTC & cloud telephony November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 18. Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating Two years ago Now 4G voice & messaging doubts VoLTE and RCS problems real November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 19. Mainstream opinion is finally catching up… “After decades of stagnation, the voice landscape is undergoing a seismic shift. Migration is in full swing to richer IP-based communication, and Web real-time communication is expected to significantly disrupt the value chain. CSPs should reassess their strategy to avoid being disenfranchised.” “The Future Evolution of CSP Voice Services” Gyanee Dewnarain, Research Director, Gartner 14 November 2013 November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 20. Voice is suddenly changing fast 2003 … … … 2011 … 2013 … 2015 ? November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 21. Voice gets “app stored”  Demand-driven future    No two users have the exact same needs Hyper-personalised There is no “one-size-fits-all” voice solution  Supply-centric outlook = death November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 22. From ubiquity to Hi-Lo mix of communications Sunglasses: $100 Jacket: $1000 Uniform: $150 Leggings: $10 November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 23. Your fate if you don‟t adapt to changing context! Marks & Spencer has revealed a 9.1% fall in half-year profits as underlying sales of clothing and homewares slipped back for the ninth consecutive quarter. Tuesday 5 November 2013 November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 24. To learn more… Sign up to the Future of Communications newsletter http://eepurl.com/dSkfz MORE November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 25. For IP Communications, Ubiquity is Dead ITU Telecom World 2013, Bangkok Dean Bubley & Martin Geddes dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com
  • 26. Neuroscience explains reluctance to change  Predictable irrationality  Endowment effect Optimism bias Confirmation bias Defence of belief systems    November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 27. Convergence & standards Fragmentation & differentiation Telephony & SMS will continue to exist, but there will be NO more standard, interoperable services
  • 28. Comforting myths about demand “Voice” = ubiquitous phone calls Good quality is critical Interoperability is essential Minutes / messages = value November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 29. Uncomfortable demand reality Phone calls are becoming less useful Good quality is only sometimes critical Interoperability is essential for basic lowest-common denominator services only Intention & outcomes = value October 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 30. Essential supply consequences Need personalisation and contextualisation capabilities Range of levels of network quality and cost… …from unmanaged to assured Shift focus to embedded voice Need new demand-driven services model November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 31. In the beginning – “Proxi-phone” Near voice November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 32. Pretty good for the 19th century... Old distant voice [Tele-phone] >100 years ago November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 33. ... but really not good enough for 21st century “Hegemony of the caller”
  • 34. Fragmentation of communications models Standalone Circuit calls Good to have “lowest common denominator” IP Embedded app/web calls Ubiquity no/negative benefit November 2013 Non-call comms Maybe ubiquitous in a niche Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 35. Intent & context.... Why do people make phone calls (or send messages, share media or use video), anyway? November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 36. The chart you‟ll never see… Calls by purpose Gossip Meeting up Flirting Spam Showing off Work Wasting time November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 37. Different contexts Out walking Public transport Living room Board room Bar November 2013 At work Airline lounge Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 38. 1 OR 2 “UBIQUITOUS” SERVICES CANNOT FULFILL ALL THESE PURPOSES WELL November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 39. Tools are cheap/free. So we pick the right ones SMS November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 40. So how important is quality? % calls Must have I'll call back Nice to have Meh. I want free November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 41. Beyond “the minute” as a metric & model      We don‟t pay for movies or flights by the minute Short calls often more valuable than long Minutes = easy to count (and must be counted) Locks telecom industry to obsolete business model Regulator mindset needs to shift too November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 42. Service Product Feature Function November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 43. Ubiquity is dead. And that‟s a good thing. November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 44. To learn more… Sign up to the Disruptive Wireless newsletter http://eepurl.com/wAqC5 Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013 MORE
  • 45. Voice Value-added Services ITU Telecom World 2013, Bangkok Dean Bubley & Martin Geddes dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com mail@martingeddes.com
  • 46. Voice VAS Standard fixed + mobile feature set Next-gen “mobile, social, cloud” feature set Standard feature set (caller ID, voicemail, forwarding, etc.) Voice, video and messaging Audio conferencing Call recording Premium voice Visual call control Ringback tones Source tracking Centrex Next-generation conference calling November 2013 Translation Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013 “Hypervoice”
  • 47. Singtel – concierge-type services  “Next-generation Yellow Pages + search, for voice”    More than 150,000 local businesses and 7,000 hawker locations Singapore English and local terms Mobile-app based November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 48. Yes, you can compete with Google (and win!) “We have spent a lot of effort to ensure the app is able to understand the way Singaporeans speak English, and this sets deF!ND apart from other voice recognition apps that have been developed abroad” November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 49. If you can‟t beat them… Nigeria + November 2013 Philippines + Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 50. DoCoMo - automatic voice translation service  World‟s first commercial mobile service for translation of conversations between people speaking Japanese and other languages.    Hanashite Hon‟yaku provides translations between Japanese and the receiver‟s language. Translations are provided both as screen text and voice readouts. Dial the other party using an Android app for DOCOMO smartphones and tablets running Android 2.2 or higher. November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 51. Tropo Ameche – telco-centric “voice apps store”   Integrated with telco core network Wide range of capabilities (e.g. voice whisper) November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 52. CallTrunk – consumer call recording Capture November 2013 Cloud integration Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013 Search and analyse
  • 53. VoiceBase – enterprise call search November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 54. Cloud/SaaS integration is important November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 55. Op3nVoice - Call recording seems to be „hot‟ November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 56. C2B Inbound call source/lead tracking   Optimise the ROI of your marketing campaigns Compare response rates of different marketing channels with unique trackable phone numbers November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 57. SME: Telefonica Azul - Rich visual call control 1:1 call Group or conference call November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 58. Adds mute, earmuff, kick participants or put them on hold.
  • 59. B2B: Next-generation conference calling “Links what you say to what you do.”
  • 60. How?  Not just traditional “network services” and call control    Multiple commercial options: Build, partner, re-sell   New architectures expose or defer call control Many value-added integration points (Hosting, security, etc.) E.g. Vodafone OneNet vs Cisco UC + SingTel UCaaS Enterprise segment tends to lead    Long history of making money from reselling 3rd party applications and services and supplying appropriate connectivity Used to re-selling PBX, video conferencing + service wrapper “OTT” – has always been that way in the enterprise world! November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 61. WHERE NEXT? November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 62. What is hypervoice? Voice as 2-way audio November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013 Voice as information
  • 63. Problems we are solving Voice has value at a single instant November 2013 Voice has value beyond a single instant Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 64. Defining characteristics Activity stream Recordable Shareable Workflow integration Searchable Rich UI
  • 65. Web 1.0 Hypertext Web 2.0 Hypermessaging Web 3.0 Hypervoice ? November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 66. Summary Hypervoice conversations are the „social‟ version of telephony and unified communications. November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 67. To learn more… White paper, newsletter, blog at www.hypervoice.org MORE November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 68. WebRTC Market Status & Opportunities ITU Telecom World 2013, Bangkok Dean Bubley & Martin Geddes dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com mail@martingeddes.com
  • 69. The vision: voice & video everywhere November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 70. Talked about for years, but hard to achieve • • • • • • • Expensive Inflexible Poor developer support Limited use-cases Reliance on “call” model Poor audio/video Hard to integrate = Patchy adoption & little developer enthusiasm / buzz November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 71. But now…. November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 72. WebRTC – what is it?  An easy way to put voice & video into web browsers… … and also apps, and devices and more High quality, network-intelligent (eg firewalls) Also with “context”, realtime data & encryption Developer-friendly & user-friendly Excitement, buzz & “cool factor” “Democratises” voice & video. Cheap, easy innovation More than just a tech standard. A “movement”.  Huge disruption potential for telcos & others        November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 73. When? NOW Already being commercialised & monetised… …before it is standardised November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 74. Who‟s involved? & 200+ startups & 1000’s of developers November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 75. Original 3-way support for WebRTC expanding Enterprise Network tools Devices WebRTC Consumer Web Telco TV & gaming November 2013
  • 76. WebRTC rapidly expanding past “calls” November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 77. WebRTC supported on >4bn devices by 2016 Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Strategy Report update November 2013 November 2013
  • 78. View Oct‟13: lead WebRTC use-cases Early enterprise adoption Live & commercial Initial consumer web apps/devices Pilots / precommercial Trials & demos November 2013 Verticals & corporate Telco, Entertainment, M2M, other… Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 79. For telcos WebRTC is really a magnifier/catalyst Now With WebRTC Bigger opportunities Worse threats Faster speed November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 80. Main WebRTC strategies for SPs? Extend onnet services & IMS / SS7 Strengthen enterprise & verticals Turbocharge Telco-OTT apps TV, entertai n- ment & digital services Sell packaged WebRTC services to subscriber Enhance developer platform October 2013 IMS should be <30% total WebRTC effort & investment Also: invest / incubate Improve own CRM & systems Maybe M2M, devices etc
  • 81. Policy impact of WebRTC ? (but urgent) November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 82. For WebRTC report & quarterly update details see: http://disruptivewireless.blogspot.com/p/blog-page.html Or email information@disruptiveanalysis.com October 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  • 83. What next? ITU Telecom World 2013, Bangkok Dean Bubley & Martin Geddes dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com mail@martingeddes.com
  • 84. Which way do you want to go? Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 85. Operators  Milk the cash cow…       Re-think credit control More bundling with new VAS Refine segmentation Customers, not devices New payment models …and recognise and engage with inevitable change    Can‟t limit user behaviour “Don‟t fight demand” Lots of opportunity so accept change November 2013
  • 86. Operators should do these five things now! 1. 2. 3. Build off-net (TelcoOTT) service capability Measure and manage on-net OTT voice quality Create a value-added voice strategy  Integrated 4. 5. with core voice offer only where appropriate Re-examine responsibility for voice Engage regulator in pro-active dialogue November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 87. Regulatory and policy considerations  This is good for consumers!    Potential huge area for digital economy + R&D    Will increase pressure on telcos in some cases Protecting „national champion‟ incumbent players may backfire Regulation is going to get more complex    Service innovation and competition Treat like the rest of the web – progress & diversity is good „Voice‟ is becoming 1000‟s of apps, not just “calls”? Revisit rules & laws to reflect new world of voice/video Difficult issues around privacy, security, encryption November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  • 88. Also available… Workshops, Briefings, Consultancy Dean.Bubley@disruptive-analysis.com mail@martingeddes.com November 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013