Disruptive Analysis  - OMA Messaging Workshop July 2012

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Disruptive Analysis - OMA Messaging Workshop July 2012

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Presentation given to the Open Mobile Alliance (OMA) Mobile Messaging Workshop on July 12th 2012 in Brooklyn NY. Focuses on the inevitable fragmentation of the messaging marketplace, and why new......

Presentation given to the Open Mobile Alliance (OMA) Mobile Messaging Workshop on July 12th 2012 in Brooklyn NY. Focuses on the inevitable fragmentation of the messaging marketplace, and why new standards such as RCS will fail

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  • 1. Fragmentation, intent & “The Death of Ubiquity”: why Telco-OTT strategies are inevitable OMA Mobile Messaging Workshop Brooklyn NY, 12th July 2012 dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean
  • 2. About Disruptive Analysis London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm Advisor to MNOs, vendors, regulators & investors Critic of mobile IMS since 2005 and RCS since 2008 Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012 Workshops on Future of Voice & #TelcoOTT  With Martin Geddes Consulting (credited for various slides here)  Next events in Orlando & London in OctoberTwitter @disruptivedean .Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.comJuly 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  • 3. Core thesis: Fragmentation is valuable Convergence & Fragmentation & standards innovation… new standardised services are neither necessary, nor sufficient. RCS is irrelevant at best, and actively damaging at worst. July 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  • 4. Messaging: key fragmentation drivers Different User Needs & contexts New Multiplying Business Ecosystems Models New Delivery Technologies Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd andJuly 2012 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012
  • 5. Scale & Context scope Why do people send Intent Functional messages, Different needs anyway? User Needs & Contexts New Multiplying Business Ecosystems Models New Delivery Technologies Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd andJuly 2012 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012
  • 6. Intent: 3 basic motivations for communications Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd andJuly 2012 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012
  • 7. Information transfer Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & MartinJuly 2012 Geddes Consulting 2012
  • 8. NarrativeJuly 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  • 9. Presence really means “feeling an essence” Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & MartinJuly 2012 Geddes Consulting 2012
  • 10. SMS vs. Intent Information Transfer Narrative Presence “Running 10 mins late. In “You’ll never believe “Miss you… looking taxi now” what happened last forward to Friday ;-) night :-O” xxx”July 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  • 11. Scale & Context scope Intent Functional needs Different User Needs New Multiplying Business Ecosystems Models New Delivery Technologies Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd andJuly 2012 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012
  • 12. Context: Messaging moves to in-app/web model … messaging APIs need to fit the app narrativeJuly 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  • 13. Service e.g. SMS Product e.g. WhatsApp Feature e.g. Zynga IM Function
  • 14. Context: Device diversity = OTT inevitable Probability of all of a user’s Internet / messaging devices being on a single telco’s network100% 90% Free 3rd party WiFi 80% Shared data plans only a 70% partial response 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 # connected devices ownedJuly 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  • 15. Scale & Context scope Intent Functional needs Different User Needs New Multiplying Business Ecosystems Models New Delivery Technologies Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd andJuly 2012 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012
  • 16. Scale & scope Communities  Unmet needs at every layer  Many combinations of Relationships information transfer, narrative & presence Conversations  Many ways to meet them Interactions  No application can do it all Rendezvous Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd andJuly 2012 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012
  • 17. Birthday party! +Lowest common denominator services used as a fallback when nothing better available July 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
  • 18. Scale & Context scope Intent Functional needs Different User Needs New Multiplying Business Ecosystems Models New Delivery Technologies Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd andJuly 2012 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012
  • 19. SMSC SMSC Roaming Customer Database InvoiceAlice Bob Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012
  • 20. Transmission Interoperability SMSC Storage SMSC Home Mobility Agent Availability Delivery Customer Accountability Database InvoiceUsability Ubiquity Urgency RelevanceAlice Governance Bob Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012
  • 21. Transmission SMS Governance Interoperability BBM Skype (mobile) Storage Facebook (mobile) Relevance DeliveryUsability Availability Mobility Accountability Ubiquity Urgency Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012
  • 22. Telco-style OTT-style services Transmission services Storage Delivery Mobility Interoperability Usability Ubiquity Relevance Governance Availability Urgency Accountability Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012
  • 23. Telco-style Familiar OTT-style services services Convenient Rentable Preinstalled Simple Billed Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012
  • 24. Telco-style Functionality OTT-style services Reach services Tailored Coolness Exclusivity Free/Freemium Affinity Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012
  • 25. Telco-style Familiar Functionality OTT-style services Transmission Reach services Convenient Storage Delivery Mobility Interoperability Tailored Rentable Ubiquity Usability Coolness Relevance Governance Preinstalled Exclusivity Availability Urgency Simple Accountability Personalised Affinity Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2012
  • 26. Interoperability is good but just another function PresenceJuly 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
  • 27. You can’t please all the people, all the time… Phone number Ubiquity Other identity Exclusivity Mobile primary Familiarity Web primary Novelty… at least, not with a single monolithic service or restrictive API July 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
  • 28.  Fragmentation is irreversible OTT solutions target specific use-cases optimally You can’t beat them through interoperable generic messaging So join them through OTT-style innovation…. … or be happy with being lowest-common denominator for the residual use cases Telco-OTT services or partnerships are inevitableJuly 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
  • 29. Telco-OTT is neither new, nor impossibleJuly 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
  • 30. Different models for Telco-OTT Telco OTT service Internet Normal “on net” users Off-net Telco extension user service Telco InternetBilling & IDJuly 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
  • 31. Key success factors for Telco-OTT services Organisation & governance Managing cannibalisation Design Software mindsetJuly 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
  • 32. Conclusions Messaging fragmentation is inevitable Consequence of myriad use-cases & human nature (Also because of technology, devices, ecosystems etc) There is a need for lowest-common denominator…. …. but it small & likely low-priced So-called OTT messaging is irreversible New standards won’t fix anything MNOs need to innovate, partner, stick with SMS, or exitJuly 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011
  • 33. www.disruptive-analysis.comdisruptivewireless.blogspot.com@disruptivedeanAVAILABLE FOR WORKSHOPS, CONSULTING & SPEAKINGdean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com+44 (0) 7941 100016 July 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2011