Is this a fair reflection of disaster costs? YES: population is rising, especially in major hazard zones YES: climate change is intensifying meteorological hazards YES: polarisation and marginalisation are increasing the vulnerability of the poor YES: fixed capital at risk is accumulating in hazard zones.
Is this a fair reflection of disaster costs? NO: very recent inclusion of indirect and hidden costsNO: artificial inflation of cost estimates NO: aggrandisement of disaster management institutions NO: out of context with respect to world resources NO: disaster is an economic stimulus.
Reality check• there are no "black swans"• there are large and increasing areas of uncertainty caused by rising complexity• applied science must constantly adapt itself its focus and methods to changes in hazard and societal vulnerability• societys priorities and preoccupations change constantly over time.
Treatment of uncertainty
Modified Rumsfeld Classification unknown known knowns knowns - - things we things we know dont realise we know known unknown unknowns - unknowns - things we things we know we dont dont know we know dont know
Knowledge accumulates and accretes. As it is not fixed over time, neither is indeterminacy.
Indeterminacy Climate change Collateral Cascading vulnerability effects Interaction Secondary between risks disasters "Fat-tailed" (skewed) distributions Probability of impacts
THE KNOWN DETERMINISM Cause Effect PROBABILITY Grey (constrained uncertainty) area Cause Single, multiple or cascading effectsPURE UNCERTAINTY Causal relationship unknown THE UNKNOWN
MAGNITUDE EVENTS& FREQUENCY LAG SCIENCE KNOWLEDGE LAG IMPLEMENTATIONLEGISLATION LAG CUMULATIVE COMPLIANCE LAG
OptimisationTechnology Response Message Perception Plan Culture Social factors
Evolution of fields and institutions
Experience Change and and theory innovation Learning• Unexpected event processes• New Lesson to Lesson circumstance learned be learned• Error• New practice Improved Recognition and safety comprehension
Environmental context Latent organisational Active Active context context organisational (members tools) context Practical Knowledge experience After: Argote and Spektor (2011)
Armed aggression on the part of states Natural disasters Civil defence Civil protection"Homeland security" "Civil contingencies" (civil defence) (resilience) Armed aggression "Generic" disasters on the part of groups of dissidents
Civil contingencies Business Civil Civilcontinuity protection defence management Resilience The risk environment
Command function principle: command and control modelInformation Management technology decisions Support function principle: collaborative and cooperation model
Knowledge Knowledge of of hazards community and their vulnerability impacts DRR Knowledge of copingDisaster capacity and Risk resilienceReduction
Organisational Political Naturalsystems: systems: systems:management decisions function Hazard Vulnerability ResilienceSocial Technicalsystems: systems:behaviour malfunction
Disaster research Public News and Information and participation information communications in disasterdissemination technology risk reduction Disaster management
Hazards and risks: disaster preparedness Uncertain future:Governance: long-term democratic Livelihoods: trendsparticipation diversity climate in decision and security change making capacity to adapt RESILIENCE: managing risks adapting to change securing resources
IMPACTVarying context: EMERGENCY • political RESPONSE • economic • social SHORT-TERM RECOVERY P E S MEDIUM-TERM RECOVERY P E S LONG-TERM RECOVERY P E S STAGNATION RECONSTRUCTION
SUSTAINABILITY disaster risk reduction RISKSdaily: unemployment, poverty, disease, etc.major disaster: floods, storms, quakes, etc. emerging risks: pandemics, climate change resource consumption stewardship of the environment economic activities lifestyles SUSTAINABILITY
The creation of a culture of civil protection HABIT INSTRUMENTS OF DISSEMINATION MASS • mass media EDUCATION CULTURE • targeted campaign PROGRAMME • social networks • internet SOCIAL CAPITAL Augmentation
BENIGN (healthy) at the service of the peopleIDEOLOGY interplay dialectic CULTURE MALIGN (corrupt) at the service of vested interestsJustification Development [spiritual, cultural, political, economic]
Obstacles to progress in DRR:-• corruption and the black economy• the arms trade, proxy wars and fomentation of conflict• denial and curtailment of human and civil rights• manufactured consent and the manipulation of politics• governance must be participatory democracy.
Adapting to a changing physical AND social world• the information technology revolution• technology and command: seismic shift• the socialisation of mass media: opportunity or complication?• the Geldorf-Bono factor - who leads?
Disaster risk reduction: we areapproaching a turning point in history• The opportunities for positive change have never been greater.• Likewise, the tools and mechanisms.• The obstacles have never been more formidable.• Likewise, the challenges.
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