Risk Assessment and ReductionPresentation Transcript
Prof. David Alexander University of Florence, Italy RISK assessment and reduction
Trends in disaster losses are unsustainable. In the second half of the 20th century the world experienced increases of:
250% in the number of recorded disasters
500% in number of disasters with victims
500% in the number of affected people
1640% in the cost
of insured damage .
1500% in the total
cost of disasters
Then (1950s) Now (2009) Under-reporting of disasters More complete recording Counting only direct effects Quantifying indirect effects Smaller population of hazardous places Larger population, greater densities Less inequality Growing inequality and marginalisation Less fixed capital at risk Relentless accumulation of fixed capital Simpler socio-economic networks More complex networks
Impact Emergency isolation During the emergency Emergency response Before the impact Preparations and warning After the impact Period of quiescence Risk mitigation Recovery and reconstruction The Phases of Disaster Disaster risk reduction Civil contingencies management Civil protection Emergency preparedness
Human activity involves risk and benefit A working definition of safety : " a thing is safe if its risks are judged to be acceptable . " A definition of risk for human societies : "the probability that a certain number of people will die in a given impact during a given interval of time."
After Ian Davis (2005) The components of risk Physical disaster Magnitude Frequency Duration Human vulnerability Exposition Location of hazard Environment Resistance Lifestyle and earnings Health Resilience Adjustments Risk reduction activities Preparations for disaster
A person who spends five minutes twice a day crossing a bridge that is at risk of collapse is exposed to that risk for 10/(60x24x7) = 0.00098 of a week .
under threat for a given period of time
at risk to a given extent of possible loss
Different definitions of exposure :
R t = E•R s = E (H•V) R t = total risk E = elements at risk (population, built environment, economic activities) R s = (H • V) = specific risk H = hazard V = vulnerability
RELEASE RATE DOSE RATE EXPOSURE An asset is not vulnerable unless it is threatened by something A hazard is not hazardous unless it threatens something COPING, CAPACITY, CAPABILITY, RESILIENCE RISK HAZARD VULNER- ABILITY ELEMENTS AT RISK
Magnitude Frequency Logarithm of return period Magnitude What does the magnitude-frequency rule mean in real-life situations?
Vertical scales: Hazard : probability of occurrence Vulnerability : potential damage Risk : value of probable costs and losses
Fat-tailed distributions of hazard: big events may be more likely than probability theory suggests Hazard, vulnerability & risk levels
The relationship between hazard and vulnerability is non-linear
VULNERABILITY RISK Intolerable risk and vulnerability Tolerable risk and vulnerability Risk/vulnerability curve Disaster threshold Society sets a level of risk toleration
Low Hazard High environment goods life High Probability Low certainty zero In risk assessment probability and consequence are non-linearly related. high risk medium risk low risk
Society places arbitrary tolerance levels upon risk Cost of risk reduction Risk Arbitrary tolerance levels COST/RISK=1
Number of casualties Cost of retrofitting a building The example of seismic retrofitting unreinforced completely reinforced completely reinforced largely unreinforced Cost of retrofitting a building Cost per life saved
Perceived risk is the assessment of hazard made subjectively by individuals
Risk aversion :
intolerance of a risk that is
perceived to be unacceptably high
desire to reduce it to negligible levels .
Objective risk can be calculated from statistical data on past events. Not all risks can be measured.
A risk classification Voluntary -- Involuntary Chronic -- Catastrophic Common (tolerated) -- Exceptional (dreaded) Injurious -- Fatal Known to those who are exposed -- Unknown to those who are exposed Known to science -- Unknown to science Can be mitigated or controlled -- Cannot be mitigated or controlled Old -- New
HOW PEOPLE PERCEIVE RISK ABILITY TO PERCEIVE RISK EXPERIENCE WITH RISK PROPENSITY TO DENY RISK ACCESS TO INFORMATION
WHETHER RISK HAS BEEN ABATED PEOPLE'S IDEAS ABOUT POSSIBLE DAMAGE AND LOSS
John Adams's "risk thermostat" Balancing behaviour "Accidents" Perceived danger Rewards Propensity to take risks Cultural filter Cultural filter
Filter Perception Culture Decision Action Result Positive Negative Risk Accurate Inaccurate
A model of vulnerability types Vulnerability Total: life is generally precarious Residual: caused by lack of modernisation Newly generated: caused by changes in circumstances Delinquent: caused by corruption, negligence, etc. Economic: people lack adequate occupation Technological, technocratic: caused by the riskiness of technology
cause and effect
interaction of causes
Total vulnerability equals Risk amplification processes minus Risk mitigation measures plus or minus Risk perception factors
Human cultures constraints, opportunities History single and cumulative impact of past disasters Causes of disaster natural geophysical, technological, social Adaptation to risk IMPACTS
Large disaster Expenditure Complacency Risk-expenditure cycle Deaths, injuries, damage, disruption, hardship Review Reduced risk No disaster Reduced expenditure Increased risk
Public outcry Rhetoric Logic Laws Safety culture The evolution of a safety culture Disaster
What exactly is resilience?
Vulnerability = 1 / resilience Resilience: mechanisms for avoiding impacts or absorbing them by coping
Organisation Resources Self-organisation Imposed organisation Volunteerism Community disaster planning Laws, protocols, directives Standards, norms, guidelines Community resources Governmental resources Donations International resources
The four dimensions of RESILIENCE:-
robustness : resist stress
without loss of function
redundancy : ability to continue
functioning during periods of disruption
ingenuity : ability to identify
problems and mobilise resources
rapidity : ability to satisfy objectives
and priorities so as to reduce losses .
Recovery after disaster Physical recovery Buildings, infrastructure, transport, agriculture, etc. The recovery triangle Social and psychological recovery Reducing post- traumatic stress Economic recovery Re-establishing production and economic activities Political, cultural and environmental context .
How to estimate vulnerability in the field Elements:
buildings and physical structures
lifelines and infrastructure
patterns of activity
that put people at risk
perceptions of hazard
concentrations and patterns
of elements at risk .
Vulnerability in the connection between wall and joist leads to collapse of the structure in an earthquake
Random rubble masonry with powdery lime mortar is a major source of vulnerability in historic and old buildings.
Collapse often begins at roof level if roof structure is too rigid and poorly tied to vertical load-bearing members.
Cornices,parapets and other façade details are particularly vulnerable to damage in earthquakes.
Inadequately constructed frame buildings are vulnerable to progressive collapse
Battering by adjacent buildings with different fundamental periods of vibration.
Zone of interference Differential movements
Pre-earthquake roof-line Replacement stonework
Stairwells are often the most vulnerable part of the building during earthquakes, and the first part that people use as they try to escape.
Self-protection during earthquakes and tornadoes is NOT fostered by the myth that it is safe to shelter under desks and tables.
Seismic landslide takes centre out of town three days after large earthquake
Rotational slumping: the ancient (1777) and modern (1982)
Sea coast Massive landslide Push effect Urban areas
Forward thrust Nodes are first to fail Columns shear through under sustained pressure Landslide direction
Landslide headscarp Extensional movement Pull-apart upslope of headscarp
Bedrooms where four people died Spontaneous toppling failure in unconsolidated sands Backward rotation of toppled blocks
Spontaneous total failure of foundations Spontaneous total failure of r-c frame bldg ...with some forward thrust
Historic urban landscape (with castle, etc.) and a nice, historic urban landslide
Tranquil Alpine scene ...with debris flow ...and several brand-new hotels at its foot
Unstable slopes of clastic weathered rocks subject to mass movements
Exposure Sensitivity Capacity to adapt VULNERA- BILITY
Components of the dimensions Measures of the components
Esposure Sensitivity Capacity to adapt VULNERA- BILITY Physical dimensions Age of the infrastructure Age and income of the population Demo- graphy Technology Res- ponse Management structure Access to information and technology Exposed res- ources Exposed population Intensity Frequency Location Number Wealth and well being Tax revenues Emergency plans Level of education Information services
Risk & disaster management
Risks must be:
communicated to people
who are at risk
Risk identification : what are the risks? Risk assessment or analysis : how serious are the risks and what do they consist of? Risk management : how can risks be reduced? Risk perception and communication : how can risks be communicated to the public, mass media or others? How experts deal with risk:
Risk assessment procedure:
identify hazard : identify and
characterize source of hazard
assess dose-response : estimate
relationship between exposure and
probability of negative effects
assess exposure : determine the
intensity, frequency and duration
of exposure to the source of harm
characterise risk : estimate the
level of risk in relation to dose,
exposure and response .
HAZARD VULNERABILITY EXPOSURE LOW MEDIUM HIGH A simple risk assessment matrix
Severit y negligible marginal moderate serious catastrophic Probability of occurrence frequent probable occasional improbable impossible acceptable significant critical Risk level:
BCM risk assessment matrix
Constructing a risk register
all employees should be encouraged
to contribute to the identification ,
discussion and exploration of risks
institute a "no fault, no blame"
culture for the identification of risks
appoint and train a risk manager
in each department of the organisation
have frequent and open discussions
about how to manage the risks .
Company Board and CEO Business continuity management board
BCM project team (and leader)
ensure appropriate resources
[Departmental] working group [Departmental] working group Risk register
Risk analysis should express:-
probability of event of given size
impact magnitude / population size
basic conditions and assumptions
uncertainty and confidence levels
how predictions were obtained .
single or multiple risks considered?
total or partial risk?
voluntary or involuntary exposure?
how analysis will affect
management of the risk .
Risk analysis should express:-
Factors that limit risk mitigation:
environmental hazard levels
poor understanding of
inadequate training and education .
Risk communication messages should:-
come from an official source
clearly explain risk and its likelihood
say what sort of impact is expected
describe probable effect of impact
and where to get more information .
explain what to do ...
Risk communication messages should:-
present information in sequence
encourage people to share information
with colleagues, family and friends
repeat message many times .
explain importance of message
and the need for action
The essence of disaster management:- To tackle pressing needs with maximum efficiency and speed but with scarce resources and in the absence of necessary information BUT emergency planning is still a young field: it lacks international consensus on standards, procedures, and legal and institutional imperatives
Modern emergency plans are generic ( "all hazards" ):-
adaptable to all emergencies
focussed on the emergencies deemed
most likely to occur in the local area
technical sophistication must
be balanced by ease of use .
Set procedures Co-ordinating plan Spontaneous improvisation Set procedures Co-ordinating plan Spontaneous improvisation Emergency environment Emergency environment
Continuity of production Preservation of organisation's good name Safeguarding of assets Maintenance of market position
Generic crisis typology
Some typical risks:-
loss of customer records
breakdown of the supply chain
failure of essential services on which
production or customer support depends
inability to deliver the product for a
significant period of time for any reason
negative perceptions of the company by
clients, customers or the public .
Some reasons why supplies may fail:-
industrial action halts production
faulty components leads to product recall
supplier ceases trading (goes into
bankruptcy or receivership)
fire, flood or natural disaster
strikes supplier's premises
computer systems fail .
Possible impact of interruptions to supplies and suppliers:-
loss of independence
inability to fulfill orders
loss of confidential or sensitive info.
increased exposure to fraud
and unauthorised transactions
loss of data
loss of audit trail
failure of purchasing and
scheduling software systems
legal liability due to failure to
fulfill contractual obligations .
OPERATIONS (ACHIEVEMENTS) REPUTATION Perception Communication
Some risk reduction measures:-
separation of high-risk storage
data storage redundancy
product and building security .
CITY DISASTER PLAN Where business continuity management fits in: PROVINCIAL, COUNTY, STATE OR REGIONAL DISASTER PLAN NATIONAL DISASTER PLAN AIRPORT EMERGENCY PLAN INDUSTRIAL CONTINGENCY PLAN COMMERCIAL FACILITIES CONTINGENCY PLAN EMS NETWORK CONTINGENCY PLAN HOSPITAL EMS PLAN HOSPITAL EMS PLAN MEDICAL FACILITY PLAN BCM
Strategic, tactical & operational planning Aftermath Disaster Monitoring prediction & warning Permanent emergency plan Business continuity plan Recovery and reconstruction planning
An crisis management plan:-
should be simple in conception
is a living document that needs
should define the ground rules for
co-ordinating emergency activities
should be able to deal with internally
and externally generated crises .
Specifying an incident management structure:-
means of co-ordinating groups and teams
command and control structures
communications channels & media contact
inter-departmental and inter-
organisational co-ordination measures .
Construction of operational scenarios of hazard, risk, impact and emergency response Existence of various states of hazard and vulnerabilit y Census of available resources Emergency action plan Processes of constant adaptation of the plan
Initial study Revision Testing Evaluation Activation Disaster Dissemination Information Formulation and updating of plan Stakeholders' input Training
Evaluation Plan Apparent chaos Model Testing Disaster Outcome Feedback Feedback
Initiating the process Planning for business continuity Implementing the plan Managing the crisis
Changing the mindset
Business impact analysis Create the BCM plan Business impact evaluation Objectives -> Risks -> Priorities -> Scenarios
products and services
activities and resources
supply chain analysis
Disaster opens a window of opportunity for positive change and greater security
What is sustainable disaster risk reduction?
it is centred upon the local level
(but is harmonised from above)
through consultation it has the support
and involvement of the population
plans tackle all the phases of the
disaster cycle - in an integrative way
it is a fundamental, every-day service
for the population and is taken seriously .
needs to be shortened needs to be lengthened preparation for the next event warning and evacuation recovery and reconstruction repair of basic services emergency management and rescue isolation impact needs to be strengthened Risk reduction and disaster mitigation
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