Risk Assessment and Reduction


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Risk Assessment and Reduction

  1. 1. Prof. David Alexander University of Florence, Italy RISK assessment and reduction
  2. 2. Trends in disaster losses are unsustainable. In the second half of the 20th century the world experienced increases of: <ul><li>250% in the number of recorded disasters </li></ul><ul><li>500% in number of disasters with victims </li></ul><ul><li>500% in the number of affected people </li></ul><ul><li>1640% in the cost </li></ul><ul><li>of insured damage . </li></ul><ul><li>1500% in the total </li></ul><ul><li>cost of disasters </li></ul>
  3. 3. Then (1950s) Now (2009) Under-reporting of disasters More complete recording Counting only direct effects Quantifying indirect effects Smaller population of hazardous places Larger population, greater densities Less inequality Growing inequality and marginalisation Less fixed capital at risk Relentless accumulation of fixed capital Simpler socio-economic networks More complex networks
  4. 4. Impact Emergency isolation During the emergency Emergency response Before the impact Preparations and warning After the impact Period of quiescence Risk mitigation Recovery and reconstruction The Phases of Disaster Disaster risk reduction Civil contingencies management Civil protection Emergency preparedness
  5. 5. Risk assessment
  6. 6. Human activity involves risk and benefit A working definition of safety : &quot; a thing is safe if its risks are judged to be acceptable . &quot; A definition of risk for human societies : &quot;the probability that a certain number of people will die in a given impact during a given interval of time.&quot;
  7. 7. After Ian Davis (2005) The components of risk Physical disaster Magnitude Frequency Duration Human vulnerability Exposition Location of hazard Environment Resistance Lifestyle and earnings Health Resilience Adjustments Risk reduction activities Preparations for disaster
  8. 8. Earthquake Tsunami Volcanic eruption Cyclone Tornado Snow avalanche Flood Drought Forest fire Transportation crash Industrial explosion Radioactive contamination Water pollution episode Riot Food adulteration Smoking Mountain climbing Voluntary Involuntary Intense Diffuse Natural Anthropogenic
  9. 9. Hazard x Vulnerability = Risk Release rate Dose rate Exposure Impact Response
  10. 10. A person who spends five minutes twice a day crossing a bridge that is at risk of collapse is exposed to that risk for 10/(60x24x7) = 0.00098 of a week . <ul><li>under threat for a given period of time </li></ul><ul><li>at risk to a given extent of possible loss </li></ul>Different definitions of exposure :
  11. 11. R t = E•R s = E (H•V) R t = total risk E = elements at risk (population, built environment, economic activities) R s = (H • V) = specific risk H = hazard V = vulnerability
  12. 12. RELEASE RATE DOSE RATE EXPOSURE An asset is not vulnerable unless it is threatened by something A hazard is not hazardous unless it threatens something COPING, CAPACITY, CAPABILITY, RESILIENCE RISK HAZARD VULNER- ABILITY ELEMENTS AT RISK
  13. 13. Magnitude Frequency Logarithm of return period Magnitude What does the magnitude-frequency rule mean in real-life situations?
  14. 14. Vertical scales: Hazard : probability of occurrence Vulnerability : potential damage Risk : value of probable costs and losses
  15. 15. Fat-tailed distributions of hazard: big events may be more likely than probability theory suggests Hazard, vulnerability & risk levels
  16. 16. The relationship between hazard and vulnerability is non-linear
  17. 17. VULNERABILITY RISK Intolerable risk and vulnerability Tolerable risk and vulnerability Risk/vulnerability curve Disaster threshold Society sets a level of risk toleration
  18. 18. Low Hazard High environment goods life High Probability Low certainty zero In risk assessment probability and consequence are non-linearly related. high risk medium risk low risk
  19. 19. Society places arbitrary tolerance levels upon risk Cost of risk reduction Risk Arbitrary tolerance levels COST/RISK=1
  20. 20. Number of casualties Cost of retrofitting a building The example of seismic retrofitting unreinforced completely reinforced completely reinforced largely unreinforced Cost of retrofitting a building Cost per life saved
  21. 21. Perceived risk is the assessment of hazard made subjectively by individuals <ul><li>Risk aversion : </li></ul><ul><li>intolerance of a risk that is </li></ul><ul><li>perceived to be unacceptably high </li></ul><ul><li>desire to reduce it to negligible levels . </li></ul>Objective risk can be calculated from statistical data on past events. Not all risks can be measured.
  22. 22. A risk classification Voluntary -- Involuntary Chronic -- Catastrophic Common (tolerated) -- Exceptional (dreaded) Injurious -- Fatal Known to those who are exposed -- Unknown to those who are exposed Known to science -- Unknown to science Can be mitigated or controlled -- Cannot be mitigated or controlled Old -- New
  23. 23. HOW PEOPLE PERCEIVE RISK ABILITY TO PERCEIVE RISK EXPERIENCE WITH RISK PROPENSITY TO DENY RISK ACCESS TO INFORMATION <ul><li>ABILITY TO </li></ul><ul><li>REDUCE RISK: </li></ul><ul><li>money </li></ul><ul><li>expertise </li></ul><ul><li>knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>resources </li></ul>WHETHER RISK HAS BEEN ABATED PEOPLE'S IDEAS ABOUT POSSIBLE DAMAGE AND LOSS
  24. 24. John Adams's &quot;risk thermostat&quot; Balancing behaviour &quot;Accidents&quot; Perceived danger Rewards Propensity to take risks Cultural filter Cultural filter
  25. 25. Filter Perception Culture Decision Action Result Positive Negative Risk Accurate Inaccurate
  26. 26. Vulnerability: the main component of risk
  27. 27. Vulnerability is... <ul><li>the actual or potential degree of loss </li></ul><ul><li>resulting from a particular hazard or </li></ul><ul><li>set of hazards of a given magnitude </li></ul><ul><li>the potential for harm </li></ul><ul><li>something that is constructed socially </li></ul><ul><li>the inverse of capability </li></ul><ul><li>(coping, resilience ) . </li></ul>
  28. 28. Disaster management Risk management Crisis management Emergency management Hypothetical Concrete Concentrated Diffuse Vulnerability management
  29. 29. A model of vulnerability types Vulnerability Total: life is generally precarious Residual: caused by lack of modernisation Newly generated: caused by changes in circumstances Delinquent: caused by corruption, negligence, etc. Economic: people lack adequate occupation Technological, technocratic: caused by the riskiness of technology
  30. 30. <ul><li>Primary </li></ul><ul><li>cause and effect </li></ul><ul><li>Secondary </li></ul><ul><li>interaction of causes </li></ul><ul><li>coincidences </li></ul><ul><li>Complex </li></ul><ul><li>complicated </li></ul><ul><li>interactions </li></ul>VULNERABILITY
  31. 31. Total vulnerability equals Risk amplification processes minus Risk mitigation measures plus or minus Risk perception factors
  32. 32. Human cultures constraints, opportunities History single and cumulative impact of past disasters Causes of disaster natural geophysical, technological, social Adaptation to risk IMPACTS
  33. 33. Large disaster Expenditure Complacency Risk-expenditure cycle Deaths, injuries, damage, disruption, hardship Review Reduced risk No disaster Reduced expenditure Increased risk
  34. 34. Public outcry Rhetoric Logic Laws Safety culture The evolution of a safety culture Disaster
  35. 37. What exactly is resilience?
  36. 38. Vulnerability = 1 / resilience Resilience: mechanisms for avoiding impacts or absorbing them by coping <ul><li>Coping strategies: </li></ul><ul><li>indigenous </li></ul><ul><li>imported </li></ul>
  37. 39. Organisation Resources Self-organisation Imposed organisation Volunteerism Community disaster planning Laws, protocols, directives Standards, norms, guidelines Community resources Governmental resources Donations International resources
  38. 40. The four dimensions of RESILIENCE:- <ul><li>robustness : resist stress </li></ul><ul><li>without loss of function </li></ul><ul><li>redundancy : ability to continue </li></ul><ul><li>functioning during periods of disruption </li></ul><ul><li>ingenuity : ability to identify </li></ul><ul><li>problems and mobilise resources </li></ul><ul><li>rapidity : ability to satisfy objectives </li></ul><ul><li>and priorities so as to reduce losses . </li></ul>
  39. 41. Recovery after disaster Physical recovery Buildings, infrastructure, transport, agriculture, etc. The recovery triangle Social and psychological recovery Reducing post- traumatic stress Economic recovery Re-establishing production and economic activities Political, cultural and environmental context .
  40. 42. How to estimate vulnerability in the field Elements: <ul><li>buildings and physical structures </li></ul><ul><li>lifelines and infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>patterns of activity </li></ul><ul><li>that put people at risk </li></ul><ul><li>perceptions of hazard </li></ul><ul><li>concentrations and patterns </li></ul><ul><li>of elements at risk . </li></ul>
  41. 43. Vulnerability in the connection between wall and joist leads to collapse of the structure in an earthquake
  42. 44. Random rubble masonry with powdery lime mortar is a major source of vulnerability in historic and old buildings.
  43. 45. Collapse often begins at roof level if roof structure is too rigid and poorly tied to vertical load-bearing members.
  44. 46. Cornices,parapets and other façade details are particularly vulnerable to damage in earthquakes.
  45. 47. Inadequately constructed frame buildings are vulnerable to progressive collapse
  46. 48. Battering by adjacent buildings with different fundamental periods of vibration.
  47. 49. Zone of interference Differential movements
  48. 50. Pre-earthquake roof-line Replacement stonework
  49. 51. Stairwells are often the most vulnerable part of the building during earthquakes, and the first part that people use as they try to escape.
  50. 52. Self-protection during earthquakes and tornadoes is NOT fostered by the myth that it is safe to shelter under desks and tables.
  51. 53. Seismic landslide takes centre out of town three days after large earthquake
  52. 54. Rotational slumping: the ancient (1777) and modern (1982)
  53. 55. Sea coast Massive landslide Push effect Urban areas
  54. 56. Forward thrust Nodes are first to fail Columns shear through under sustained pressure Landslide direction
  55. 57. Landslide headscarp Extensional movement Pull-apart upslope of headscarp
  56. 58. Bedrooms where four people died Spontaneous toppling failure in unconsolidated sands Backward rotation of toppled blocks
  57. 59. Spontaneous total failure of foundations Spontaneous total failure of r-c frame bldg ...with some forward thrust
  58. 60. Historic urban landscape (with castle, etc.) and a nice, historic urban landslide
  59. 61. Tranquil Alpine scene ...with debris flow ...and several brand-new hotels at its foot
  60. 62. Unstable slopes of clastic weathered rocks subject to mass movements
  61. 64. Exposure Sensitivity Capacity to adapt VULNERA- BILITY <ul><li>Dimensions of </li></ul><ul><li>vulnerability: </li></ul><ul><li>exposure </li></ul><ul><li>sensitivity </li></ul><ul><li>capacity </li></ul><ul><li>to adapt </li></ul>Components of the dimensions Measures of the components
  62. 65. <ul><li>Vulnerability </li></ul><ul><li>Dimensions </li></ul><ul><li>Components </li></ul><ul><li>Measures </li></ul>Esposure Sensitivity Capacity to adapt VULNERA- BILITY Physical dimensions Age of the infrastructure Age and income of the population Demo- graphy Technology Res- ponse Management structure Access to information and technology Exposed res- ources Exposed population Intensity Frequency Location Number Wealth and well being Tax revenues Emergency plans Level of education Information services
  63. 66. Risk & disaster management
  64. 67. Risks must be: <ul><li>identified </li></ul><ul><li>estimated </li></ul><ul><li>analysed </li></ul><ul><li>compared </li></ul><ul><li>communicated to people </li></ul><ul><li>who are at risk </li></ul><ul><li>managed . </li></ul>
  65. 68. Risk identification : what are the risks? Risk assessment or analysis : how serious are the risks and what do they consist of? Risk management : how can risks be reduced? Risk perception and communication : how can risks be communicated to the public, mass media or others? How experts deal with risk:
  66. 69. Risk assessment procedure: <ul><li>identify hazard : identify and </li></ul><ul><li>characterize source of hazard </li></ul><ul><li>assess dose-response : estimate </li></ul><ul><li>relationship between exposure and </li></ul><ul><li>probability of negative effects </li></ul><ul><li>assess exposure : determine the </li></ul><ul><li>intensity, frequency and duration </li></ul><ul><li>of exposure to the source of harm </li></ul><ul><li>characterise risk : estimate the </li></ul><ul><li>level of risk in relation to dose, </li></ul><ul><li>exposure and response . </li></ul>
  67. 70. HAZARD VULNERABILITY EXPOSURE LOW MEDIUM HIGH A simple risk assessment matrix
  68. 71. Severit y negligible marginal moderate serious catastrophic Probability of occurrence frequent probable occasional improbable impossible acceptable significant critical Risk level:
  69. 72. BCM risk assessment matrix
  70. 73. Constructing a risk register <ul><li>all employees should be encouraged </li></ul><ul><li>to contribute to the identification , </li></ul><ul><li>discussion and exploration of risks </li></ul><ul><li>institute a &quot;no fault, no blame&quot; </li></ul><ul><li>culture for the identification of risks </li></ul><ul><li>appoint and train a risk manager </li></ul><ul><li>in each department of the organisation </li></ul><ul><li>have frequent and open discussions </li></ul><ul><li>about how to manage the risks . </li></ul>
  71. 74. Company Board and CEO Business continuity management board <ul><li>BCM project team (and leader) </li></ul><ul><li>direct project </li></ul><ul><li>ensure appropriate resources </li></ul><ul><li>ensure quality </li></ul>[Departmental] working group [Departmental] working group Risk register
  72. 75. Risk analysis should express:- <ul><li>probability of event of given size </li></ul><ul><li>impact magnitude / population size </li></ul><ul><li>basic conditions and assumptions </li></ul><ul><li>uncertainty and confidence levels </li></ul><ul><li>how predictions were obtained . </li></ul>
  73. 76. <ul><li>single or multiple risks considered? </li></ul><ul><li>total or partial risk? </li></ul><ul><li>voluntary or involuntary exposure? </li></ul><ul><li>how analysis will affect </li></ul><ul><li>management of the risk . </li></ul>Risk analysis should express:-
  74. 77. Factors that limit risk mitigation: <ul><li>environmental hazard levels </li></ul><ul><li>human activities </li></ul><ul><li>unclear responsibilities </li></ul><ul><li>poor understanding of </li></ul><ul><li>organisational networks </li></ul><ul><li>inadequate training and education . </li></ul>
  75. 78. Risk communication messages should:- <ul><li>come from an official source </li></ul><ul><li>clearly explain risk and its likelihood </li></ul><ul><li>say what sort of impact is expected </li></ul><ul><li>describe probable effect of impact </li></ul><ul><li>and where to get more information . </li></ul><ul><li>explain what to do ... </li></ul>
  76. 79. Risk communication messages should:- <ul><li>present information in sequence </li></ul><ul><li>encourage people to share information </li></ul><ul><li>with colleagues, family and friends </li></ul><ul><li>repeat message many times . </li></ul><ul><li>explain importance of message </li></ul><ul><li>and the need for action </li></ul>
  77. 80. The essence of disaster management:- To tackle pressing needs with maximum efficiency and speed but with scarce resources and in the absence of necessary information BUT emergency planning is still a young field: it lacks international consensus on standards, procedures, and legal and institutional imperatives
  78. 81. Modern emergency plans are generic ( &quot;all hazards&quot; ):- <ul><li>adaptable to all emergencies </li></ul><ul><li>focussed on the emergencies deemed </li></ul><ul><li>most likely to occur in the local area </li></ul><ul><li>technical sophistication must </li></ul><ul><li>be balanced by ease of use . </li></ul>
  79. 82. Set procedures Co-ordinating plan Spontaneous improvisation Set procedures Co-ordinating plan Spontaneous improvisation Emergency environment Emergency environment
  80. 83. Continuity of production Preservation of organisation's good name Safeguarding of assets Maintenance of market position
  81. 84. Generic crisis typology
  82. 85. Some typical risks:- <ul><li>loss of customer records </li></ul><ul><li>breakdown of the supply chain </li></ul><ul><li>failure of essential services on which </li></ul><ul><li>production or customer support depends </li></ul><ul><li>inability to deliver the product for a </li></ul><ul><li>significant period of time for any reason </li></ul><ul><li>negative perceptions of the company by </li></ul><ul><li>clients, customers or the public . </li></ul>
  83. 86. Some reasons why supplies may fail:- <ul><li>industrial action halts production </li></ul><ul><li>faulty components leads to product recall </li></ul><ul><li>supplier ceases trading (goes into </li></ul><ul><li>bankruptcy or receivership) </li></ul><ul><li>fire, flood or natural disaster </li></ul><ul><li>strikes supplier's premises </li></ul><ul><li>computer systems fail . </li></ul>
  84. 87. Possible impact of interruptions to supplies and suppliers:- <ul><li>loss of independence </li></ul><ul><li>inability to fulfill orders </li></ul><ul><li>loss of confidential or sensitive info. </li></ul><ul><li>increased exposure to fraud </li></ul><ul><li>and unauthorised transactions </li></ul><ul><li>loss of data </li></ul><ul><li>loss of audit trail </li></ul><ul><li>failure of purchasing and </li></ul><ul><li>scheduling software systems </li></ul><ul><li>legal liability due to failure to </li></ul><ul><li>fulfill contractual obligations . </li></ul>
  85. 88. OPERATIONS (ACHIEVEMENTS) REPUTATION Perception Communication <ul><li>Concrete </li></ul><ul><li>developments </li></ul><ul><li>positive </li></ul><ul><li>negative </li></ul>CRISIS
  86. 89. Some risk reduction measures:- <ul><li>stock reduction </li></ul><ul><li>separation of high-risk storage </li></ul><ul><li>design changes </li></ul><ul><li>safety training </li></ul><ul><li>data security </li></ul><ul><li>data storage redundancy </li></ul><ul><li>product and building security . </li></ul>
  88. 91. Strategic, tactical & operational planning Aftermath Disaster Monitoring prediction & warning Permanent emergency plan Business continuity plan Recovery and reconstruction planning
  89. 92. An crisis management plan:- <ul><li>should be simple in conception </li></ul><ul><li>is a living document that needs </li></ul><ul><li>continual updating </li></ul><ul><li>should define the ground rules for </li></ul><ul><li>co-ordinating emergency activities </li></ul><ul><li>should be able to deal with internally </li></ul><ul><li>and externally generated crises . </li></ul>
  90. 93. Specifying an incident management structure:- <ul><li>call-out arrangements </li></ul><ul><li>means of co-ordinating groups and teams </li></ul><ul><li>command and control structures </li></ul><ul><li>communications channels & media contact </li></ul><ul><li>inter-departmental and inter- </li></ul><ul><li>organisational co-ordination measures . </li></ul>
  91. 94. Construction of operational scenarios of hazard, risk, impact and emergency response Existence of various states of hazard and vulnerabilit y Census of available resources Emergency action plan Processes of constant adaptation of the plan
  92. 95. Initial study Revision Testing Evaluation Activation Disaster Dissemination Information Formulation and updating of plan Stakeholders' input Training
  93. 96. Evaluation Plan Apparent chaos Model Testing Disaster Outcome Feedback Feedback
  94. 97. Initiating the process Planning for business continuity Implementing the plan Managing the crisis <ul><li>scope </li></ul><ul><li>policy </li></ul><ul><li>structure </li></ul><ul><li>resources </li></ul><ul><li>mechanisms </li></ul>Changing the mindset
  95. 98. Business impact analysis Create the BCM plan Business impact evaluation Objectives -> Risks -> Priorities -> Scenarios <ul><li>Internal analysis </li></ul><ul><li>products and services </li></ul><ul><li>activities and resources </li></ul><ul><li>dependencies </li></ul><ul><li>External analysis </li></ul><ul><li>market environment </li></ul><ul><li>stakeholder analysis </li></ul><ul><li>supply chain analysis </li></ul>
  96. 99. Conclusions
  97. 100. Disaster opens a window of opportunity for positive change and greater security
  98. 101. What is sustainable disaster risk reduction? <ul><li>it is centred upon the local level </li></ul><ul><li>(but is harmonised from above) </li></ul><ul><li>through consultation it has the support </li></ul><ul><li>and involvement of the population </li></ul><ul><li>plans tackle all the phases of the </li></ul><ul><li>disaster cycle - in an integrative way </li></ul><ul><li>it is a fundamental, every-day service </li></ul><ul><li>for the population and is taken seriously . </li></ul>
  99. 102. needs to be shortened needs to be lengthened preparation for the next event warning and evacuation recovery and reconstruction repair of basic services emergency management and rescue isolation impact needs to be strengthened Risk reduction and disaster mitigation
  100. 103. emergency-planning.blogspot.com [email_address] Thank you for your attention! www.terrapublishing.net
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