A further classification of vulnerability Deprived: Wilful:existing knowledge existing knowledge not utilised deliberately ignored Vulnerability Pristine: hazards not yet reduced
Vulnerability Total: life is generally precarious Economic: people lack adequate occupation Technological/technocratic: due to the riskiness of technology Delinquent: caused by corruption, negligence, etc. Residual: caused by lack of modernisation Newly generated: caused by changes in circumstances
Falling hazard RisingRisk: value of probable costs and losses Hazard: probability of occurrence with diminishing vulnerability Vulnerability: potential damage probability of with increasing occurrence seriousness of potential Vertical axis scales: consequences Risk as product of hazard and vulnerability Total annual predicted costs and losses Severity Fat-tailed distribution
Indeterminacy Climate change Collateral Cascading vulnerability effects Interaction Secondary between risks disasters "Fat-tailed" (skewed) distributions Probability of impacts
What is resilience [resiliency]?• a combination of resistance and adaptation (coping, capacity, capability)• ability to maintain livelihoods and tenor of life in the face of disaster shocks• local autonomy and self-sufficiency.
Attitude:• positive outlook RESILIENCE• ingenious approaches• searching for solutions• involving other people Redundancy • expensive but worthwhile • alternative solutionsPreparedness: • extra capacity• emergency plans• monitoring & forecasting• warning & evacuation• public information
RedundancyThe ingredientsof resilience Adaptability Attitude Participation ...and communication
Causes of disaster natural geophysical, technological, social RESILIENCE History Human Adaptation single and cultures to risk cumulative constraints impact and of pastopportunities disasters IMPACTS
Planning to manage emergencies
needs to be needs to be shortened lengthened impact warning and emergency evacuation management and rescue repair ofpreparation basic for the isolation services recovery andnext event reconstruction needs to beRisk reduction and disaster mitigation strengthened
Hazard monitoring & Disaster forecastingmanagement Policies Major Plans Human & incident Procedures materialmanagement Protocols resources Incidentmanagement Population (community) protection
The emergency plan should be...• generic: adaptable to many risks• a process, not merely an end in itself• flexible and constantly updated• based on ample research on scenarios of hazard, risk, etc.• composed of a synthesis, general lineaments and detailed appendixes.
On the first day of a typical emergency, 90% of assistance to victims will be supplied locally Therefore, if local resources areinsufficient, so will be the relief operations shortage reduced by supply efficient shortage mobilisationurban SAR supply demand demand time time Disaster Disaster
The challenges of emergency planning Reduce unmet needs Rationalise imported assistance and make it more timely UnmetQuantity Imported Local Increase local self-sufficiency Time
Some relevant concepts of emergency planning:-• microzonation of hazards and risks• economic and urban development only with risk reduction measures• evaluation of consequences of impacts and secondary hazards.
Preparatory study Creation andStakeholders updating Training opinions of plan Revision Dissemination Information Exercising Evaluation Activation Disaster
Feedback and revisionApparent chaos Model Plan Testing and revision Feedback Evaluation Disaster Result
HOSPITAL AIRPORT AND AND HEALTH TRANSPORT SYSTEM EMERGENCY EMERGENCY PLANS PLAN MUNICIPAL REGIONAL AND MUTUAL NATIONAL COUNTY ORASSISTANCE EMERGENCY PROVINCIAL EMERGENCY PACTS PLAN PLAN EMERGENCY PLANS INDUSTRIAL AND CULTURAL COMMERCIAL HERITAGE EMERGENCY EMERGENCY PLANS PLAN
CommandP Policies/Ethics function organisationE StrategiesS Tactics Emergency and technical servicesT OperationsOR Results Public administrators General and politicians public
Hierarchical divisions: Geographical national, divisions: regional, catchments, local, etc. jurisdictions, areas, etc. Division and integration Functional divisions: Organisational government, divisions: healthcare, police, fire,commerce, etc. ambulance, etc.
Technical Organisational Social Hazard Decision to warn Warning GeneralScientists Administrators Public RiskEvaluation communication Protective action The warning process
Attention! Perceiving the risk means verifying its existence THE SOCIAL PROCESS OF EVACUATION Dissemination of information Other news Activate the decision of imminent REMAIN IMPACT disaster Confirm, verify, Warning decide Choice of EVACUATE information Social context destination of theSocial context response toand technology the warning to warnings
hypothetical historical Scenario ingredients analysis methodology initial reference time in emergencyconditions event zero planning consequences evaluation of at time 1 the progress evolution of the scenario consequences development at time 2 of the evolution scenario consequences at time n Emergency Planning formal evaluation of the outcome of the scenario
Physical Human impact consequencesLARGE LARGESMALL SMALL
Towards a cultureof civil protection
DEMAND CREATION OF A NEW CULTURE OF CIVIL POTENTIAL PROTECTIONNEEDS TO BE EXPLOITED SUPPLY
Knowledge Knowledge of of hazards community and their vulnerability impacts DRR Knowledge of copingDisaster capacity and Risk resilienceReduction
National Family culture culture Regional culture Peer Value Personal group system cultureculture Work culture
The creation of a culture of civil protection HABIT INSTRUMENTS OF DISSEMINATION MASS • mass media EDUCATION CULTURE • targeted campaign PROGRAMME • social networks • internet SOCIAL CAPITAL Augmentation
OptimisationTechnology Response Message Perception Plan Culture Social factors
Secondary staging Mortuary area area Medical post medical post for personnel Advance Minor injuries Incident Triage Primary treatment command post area staging area Ambulance Control post Rescue loop loading area Mass MASS CASUALTY media INCIDENT post Helicopter ambulance Inner cordonManaging the emergency with incident command system
Policy outcomes Planning, Fusion with warning and sustainabilitypreparedness agenda Enhanced Organised structural non-structural protection protection Protection strategy
Resilience against disasters: Ten suggestions for action
Tell people what to do in a crisis.
Develop urban search and rescue capacity on site.
Reduce non-structural aswell as structural hazards.
Adapt and disseminate good practice.
Ensure that Disaster Risk Reduction(DRR) programmes are sustainable
Create a strategy for recovering from the next disaster.
Create a culture of resilience against disasters.
...and avoid the myth of panic:it should not be treated as a relevant factor in emergency planning
Conclusions:-Emergency planning must be:• multi-hazard• flexible• based on accurate zonation• based on scenarios which anticipate predicable developments• constantly updated.
What is sustainable vulnerability reduction? • it is centred upon the local level (but is harmonised from above) • through consultation it has the support and involvement of the population• plans tackle all the phases of the disaster cycle - in an integrative way• it is a fundamental, every-day service for the population and is taken seriously.
SUSTAINABILITY disaster risk reduction RISKSdaily: unemployment, poverty, disease, etc.major disaster: floods, storms, quakes, etc. emerging risks: pandemics, climate change resource consumption stewardship of the environment economic activities lifestyles SUSTAINABILITY
Hazards and risks: disaster preparedness Uncertain future:Governance: long-term democratic Livelihoods: trendsparticipation diversity climate in decision and security change making capacity to adapt RESILIENCE: managing risks adapting to change securing resources
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