Hazards, Risksand Disasters II David Alexander Global Risk Forum - Davos (CH)
Information and communication
Wisdom: ability to take decisions on the basis of principles, experience and knowledge Knowledge: understanding of howthings function (or should function) Information: description of physical and social situations Data: basic facts and statistics COMMUNICATION
Knowledge Knowledge of of hazards community and their vulerability impacts DRR Knowledge of copingDisaster capacity and Risk resilienceReduction
Shortage of Excess of information information Information critical but lackingImpact of disaster Time
Some effects of the information and communications technology revolution• flattening of the chain of command• IT support for disaster response• overload of information delivery systems• artificiality and isolation from the reality on the ground• the emergency manager must study new ways to inform himself and others.
Emergency manager input and consultation Display and analysis technology Ability to analyse data Predictive data analysis circuit models of events Data banks data emergency Disastermanagement relief circuit
Old ideas...• rigid structure• hierarchy• military doctrine• secrecy• cordon• command and control• security• civil defence.
New ideas...• planning• collaboration• flexible, adaptable management• limited "span of control"• information sharing• IT support• accredited journalists• involving the public• civil protection.
OptimisationTechnology Response Message Perception Plan Culture Social factors
Lesson: emergency communication isa powerful but imprecise process that is undergoing a profound revolution.
Public perception of disasters continues to be dominated by myths and inaccuracies enthusiastically propagated bythe mass media.
"Myth" no.1: Disasters are truly exceptional events.
"Myth" no.2: Disasters kill people without respect forsocial class or economic status.
"Myth" no.3: When disaster strikes panic and irrational behaviour arecommon reactions.
"Myth" no.4: People will flee inlarge numbers from a disaster area.
"Myth" no.5: After disaster has struck,survivors tend to be dazed and apathetic.
"Myth" no.6: People can survivefor many days when trapped underthe rubble of a collapsed building.
Percentage of people brought out alive from under collapsed builings 0 50 100 10.5 Hours 3 12 1Survival time Days 2 3 4 5 7 10 15
"Myth" no.7: After disaster people will not make rational decisions and will therefore inevitably tend to do thewrong thing unless authority guides them.
"Myth" no.8: Disasters usually give rise to widespread, spontaneousmanifestations of antisocial behaviour, including looting and violence.
"Myth" no.9: The mass mediacreate an accurate picture of the disasters on which they report.
"Myth" no.10: Unburied deadbodies constitute a health hazard.
"Myth" no.11: Disease epidemics are an almost inevitable result of the disruptionand poor health caused by major disasters.
"Myth" no.12: Great quantities and assortments of medicinesshould be sent to disaster areas.
"Myth" no.13: Field hospitals areparticularly useful for treating people injured by sudden impact disasters.
"Myth" no.14: In the aftermath ofdisaster mass vaccination is an excellentway of stopping the spread of diseases.
"Myth" no.15: Dead bodies, survivors, streets, rubble and other things should be sprayed with disinfectant to stop the spread of disease.
"Myth" no.16: Any kind of aid and relief is useful after disasterproviding it is supplied quickly enough.
"Myth" no.17: Companies, corporations, associations and governments are always very generous when invited to send aid and relief to disaster areas.
"Myth" no.18: Emergency responders will not report to work in a disaster,they will protect their families instead.
"Myth" no.19: In disastersthere are heroes and villains.
"Myth" no.20: Disastersalways happen to someone else.
"Myth" no.21: Disaster isalways a negative experience.
Our image of disasters is conditioned far too much by Hollywood!
Obligation Editorial to inform independence the public and freedom Mutual Emergency antipathy Representatives and disaster or of the mass managers collaborative media relationship? Public information Sales and centres; warnings ratings; and alerts; reputation; informing the revenue fromrelatives of victims advertising
Feedback Call Civil centre The protection general Direct service communication public Pressconferences, Consumercommuniques relations The mass Feedback media
DEMAND CREATE A NEW CULTURE OF CIVIL PROTECTION POTENTIAL TONEEDS BE EXPLOITED SUPPLY
SpontaneousSome publicstakeholders Individualin disaster citizens Kinship groups Disaster Workplace subcultures groups Citizens Emergent organisations Charitable groups Schools NGOsOrganised Established
The creation of a culture of civil protection HABIT INSTRUMENTS OF DISSEMINATION MASS • mass media EDUCATION CULTURE • targeted campaign PROGRAMME • social networks • internet SOCIAL CAPITAL Augmentation
Lesson: perception is a vital component of emergency planning and response, but it is also difficult to manage.
Common Common Commonculture objectives language Broad professional training in emergency management Professional experience and training Disciplinary training (e.g. bachelors degree)
SEVEN SCHOOLS Geography & OF THOUGHT anthropology: cultural (human) Sociology anthropology Physical &construction HAZARD, Psychology sciences & psychiatry RISK & DISASTER STUDIES and perhaps an eighth...Disaster medicine & epidemiology Economic & financial studies Criminal justice Development and forensic studies science
CONSTITUENT Earth & environmental sciences DISCIPLINES Ecology Geology Atmospheric & water sciences (& Geomorphology) Geophysics Climatology (inc. Seismology) Construction sciences Hydraulics Vulcanology Hydrology Architecture Meteorology Civil engineering Geotechnical engineering Structural engineering Mechanical & Information & HAZARD, electrical engineering Computational communication RISK & & analytical technology (ICT) DISASTER Computer technology sciences Remote sensing Cartography Risk analysis (inc. Development studies risk identification, Economics Nursing Geography, History estimation, Nutrition Jurisprudence & legal stds management & Pharmacology Urban & regional planning communication) General medicine Mass media studies Surgery & Psychology emergency medicine Sociology Public health, hygiene Social & spatial sciences Health sciences & epidemiology Veterinary sciences
Emergency management training and education ANALYSIS EX HAZARD ER FIE ES CIS RIS MET LD K M HOD ITIG S O ATI F CON ON C CE BASI EMERGENCY PT S PLANNING ND EM Y A ION R VE UCT NG MA ERGE O NA EC STR NNI GE NCY DIS CIO OLO ORM UBLIC R N ME EME N LA SO YC H NT O P NT NAG ATIO EC PS AS LOG GY R TE Y P R INF AN MA D
Research Experience Certification of competence Emerging Training professional programmes figure Recognition and an institutional role for thePolicies and professional figure Organi- legislation sation
Lesson: education is the key tobetter disaster risk reduction.
• losses in disaster will continue to increase steeplyFUTUROLOGY • poverty and vulnerability will define ever more closely the areas of greatest susceptibility to disasters • at the world scale, one or more great events will cause a drastic reorganisation disaster preparedness • the catalyst event may be a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, or a biological or radioactive incident.
• the job of the emergency manager will become more and more complex• emergency planning will have to tackle new kinds of event• emergency management will very slowly become a profession• the level of international participation in disasters will rise.
MILITARY WAR AND NATURAL CONFLICT DISASTERS VULNERABILITY HUMANITARIAN AND ASSISTANCE MARGINAL-The"Military ISATION Cross" POVERTY INSECURITY ASSISTANCE
Hijacking of assistance Justice Impartiality RobberyTotal What and rape war future? of victims Relief Humanitarianism Politicisation of relief suppies
Mitigation Preparations and reduction and of risks warning Links Recovery Emergency and relief actionsreconstruction Integration through emergency planning and training
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