Organisational Political Naturalsystems: systems: systems:management decisions function Hazard Vulnerability ResilienceSocial Technicalsystems: systems:behaviour malfunction
Vulnerability Total: life is generally precarious Economic: people lack adequate occupation Technological/technocratic: due to the riskiness of technology Delinquent: caused by corruption, negligence, etc. Residual: caused by lack of modernisation Newly generated: caused by changes in circumstances
Knowledge Knowledge of of hazards community and their vulnerability impacts DRR Knowledge of copingDisaster capacity and Risk resilienceReduction
Uncertainty cannot always betransformed into probability or fact.
Indeterminacy Climate change Collateral Cascading vulnerability effects Interaction Secondary between risks disasters "Fat-tailed" (skewed) distributions Probability of impacts
THE KNOWN DETERMINISM Cause Effect PROBABILITY Grey (constrained uncertainty) area Cause Single, multiple or cascading effectsPURE UNCERTAINTY Causal relationship unknown THE UNKNOWN
Organisation for disaster risk reductionmust be integrated across broad areas of science and public administration.
Disaster Risk Reduction ResilienceCivil Contingencies Management Civil Protection Disaster Management Broader Changing scope and objectives outcomes of emergency management
Population (community) Plans, protection procedures, protocolsHazardforecasting, Major eventmonitoring, managementetc. Human and material Incident resources management
Community disaster planning Volunteerism Donations Self-organisation Community resources Organisation Resources Imposed Governmental organisation resources Laws, protocols, directivesStandards, norms, guidelines International resources
needs to be needs to be shortened lengthened impact warning and emergency evacuation management and rescue repair ofpreparation basic for the isolation services recovery andnext event reconstruction needs to beRisk reduction and disaster mitigation strengthened
Technical Organisational Social Hazard Decision to warn WarningScientists Administrators General Public RiskEvaluation communication Protective action The warning process
Technology creates a revolution in disaster response and resilience,but it also creates new vulnerability.
Sociocentrism Technocentrism Technology as riskindividual mitigation Cultural filterfamily Research,peer group developmentorganisation and investmentcommunity in technologysocietyinternational Technology as a source of vulnerability
Technology as a source of risk reduction Benign Ceaseless developmentMalignant of technologyTechnology as Technologyan inadvertent as a deliberatesource of risk source of risk Risk Cultural management filter practices
Recovery from disaster is a political as much as a technical process.
DESTRUCTION OF HOUSING EVACUATION PRECAUTIONARY SEMI-PERMANENT PERMANENT pending survey pending repair pending resettlement SPONTANEOUS SOLUTIONS INFORMAL SHELTER BUSES AND AUTOMOBILES PUBLIC BUILDINGS ORGANISED FIRST-AID TENTS MOBILE TRAILERS HOTELS SPONSORED OUT- MIGRATION ORGANISED RESETTLEMENT with temporary urbanisation of the site PREFAB CONTAINER HOMES PREFAB CHALET-STYLE HOUSING UNITS ORGANISED RECONSTRUCTION with permanent reurbanisation of the site RECONSTRUCTION PLANS, HEARINGS, APPEALS REDEVELOPMENT NEW DEVELOPMENT
Good Amelioration (functionality maintained) Suff- Reco- ering Transitional veryEarth- Permanent housing and quake reconstruction settlement Public image Bad of politicians (functional National problems)Political Political impact Regional Electionsresponse on reconstruction Local A reconstruction model
Experience Change and and theory innovation Learning• Unexpected event processes• New Lesson to Lesson circumstance learned be learned• Error• New practice Improved Recognition and safety comprehension
BENIGN (healthy) at the service of the peopleIDEOLOGY interplay dialectic CULTURE MALIGN (corrupt) at the service of vested interestsJustification Development [spiritual, cultural, political, economic]
MAGNITUDE EVENTS& FREQUENCY LAG SCIENCE KNOWLEDGE LAG IMPLEMENTATIONLEGISLATION LAG CUMULATIVE COMPLIANCE LAG