Emergency Preparedness - State of the Art - David Alexander University College London
Plan of this lesson:-Objective: to examine trendsand developments in emergencymanagement with respect to.... • organisation of the sector • counter-terrorism • information in emergencies • humanitarian relief.
Population (community) Plans, protection procedures, protocols Disaster risk reduction Hazardforecasting, Human monitoring, Incident and material etc. management resources
Knowledge Knowledge of of hazards community and their vulnerability impacts DRR Knowledge of copingDisaster capacity and Risk resilienceReduction
International Catastrophe National Disaster Major incident Regional Municipal Incident...but there are no quantitative definitions...
Some characteristics of large emergencies• events that cannot be managed with normal resources• 90% of emergencies do not require special procedures• 10% require a qualitative change in management techniques• the context of risk and vulnerability can transform an incident into a disaster.
Hazard monitoring & Disaster forecastingmanagement Policies Major Plans Human & incident Procedures materialmanagement Protocols resources Incidentmanagement Population (community) protection
Partly after Major Incidents Disasters CatastrophesTierney (2008) incidents Very Generally Widespread ExtremelyImpact localised localised and severe large Inter- Major Local Some mutualResponse governmental international efforts assistance response response Standard Emergency Emergency PlansPlans and operating plans plans fully potentiallyprocedures procedures activated activated overwhelmed Interregional Local Local Some outsideResources transfer of resources resources assistance resources overwhelmedPublic Very little Mainly not Public very Extensivelyinvolvement involvement involved involved involved Very few Few Major MassiveRecovery challenges challenges challenges challenges
Local incident Local response A Threshold of local capacitySmall regional Co-ordinated local response Bincident Threshold of intermunicipal capacityMajor regional Intermunicipal and Bincident regional response Threshold of regional capacityNational Intermunicipal, regional Cdisaster and national response Threshold of national capacityInternational Ditto, with more Ccatastrophe international assistance
International: exchange and support Nation: policies of Volontary compatibility, harmonisation sector: and co-ordinationsupport andintegration Province, region, state, county: co-ordination, assistance Private Municipality or other local sector: authority: emergency operations integration Disaster
Micro- Singleemergency municipality A hierarchy Meso- Several municipalitiesof emergencyemergency Macro- Regional plansemergency coordinationDisaster or Nationalcatastrophe coordination
A new class Natural: earthquakes, Technological: toxic spills, floods, transportationlandslides, etc. crashes, etc. Forms of disaster Social: Intentional: riots, mass acts of of disaster? gatherings,demonstrations terrorism
"Civil Civil contingencies" protection The management security industry Emergencies and disasters"Homeland Business security" continuity Complex management emergencies
Civil protection: What are the what degree of What role for limits of civil political support? the security contingencies industry in management? the general emergency? Emergencies Homeland and disasters What security: relationship is reduction of businessin civil liberties continuity acceptable? Complex emergencies: management How much aid from with civil donor countries? authorities?
Civil contingencies Business Civil Civilcontinuity protection defence management Resilience The risk environment
Paramilitary forces PMF (National Guard) PF MFPolice Militaryforces forces Italy Fire Public FB PAbrigades administrations CVF Civilian volunteer PMF PMF forces PF MFPF MF USA UKFB PA FB PA CVF CVF
Military CivilianArmed Civil administrationforces Volunteers (civil society) Emergency services (army) [residual role]Civil defence Civil protectionCommand and control Co-ordination and co-operationChain of command Autonomy
Effects of natural disasters on technological capital Natural Technologicaldisasters disasters Effects of technology on Technological vulnerability to of acts of terrorism natural disasters component Some links Social conditions as factors that incubate Social Intentional dissidencedisasters disasters
Homeland security• the age of CBRN?• civil protection with a more restricted scope?• emergency planning dominated by counter-terrorism preparations• the resurgence of civil defence• secrecy: "the public does not need to know".
Creation of the Department of HomelandSecurity was the greatest reorganisationof the US Federal Government since 1947About 2000 US universities have openedcentres for the study of terrorism,bioterrorism, CBRN or similar subjectsHowever, the US Federal Government hasnot reduced the number of declarations ofnatural disaster or states of emergencyfrom the 45-75 per year that was theaverage before 11 September 2001.
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 From 1980 to 1998 in the USA there were 455 Presidential declarations of disaster as a resultof hurricanes, floods and earthquakes.
Terrorism is a form ofteleological disaster (i.e., piloted)• it is potentially infinitely mutable• designing remedies is a very expensive process• the scenarios are highly debatable.
EXAMPLE: the Aum Shinrikyoattack in the Toyko subway withthe nerve gas Sarin (1995):• 12 dead• 4900 people went to hospital, of whom...• about 1000 were genuinely injured• ...about 3900 were suffering from MIPS - multiple ideopathic physical symptoms: i.e., hypochondria.
The principal effect of terrorism on the general public could be, not any direct involvement of people in an incident, but the disruption of normal daily life......with huge costs to society.
In the case of an attack with chemical weapons these aspects of decontamination protocols are highly debatable:• the chemical agents employed to neutralise toxic substances• the question of whether to take off clothes before being treated• the decontamination techniques utilised in relation to the identification of the toxic substance• how many people can be decontaminated realistically per unit time.
Armed aggression on the part of states Natural disasters Civil defence Civil protection"Homeland security" "Civil contingencies" (civil defence) (resilience) Armed aggression "Generic" disasters on the part of groups of dissidents
Emergency management: an evolutionary approach Civil defence...............Civil protection Proxy ParticipatoryCommand and control CollaborationVertical chain Task forcesof command Population consultedPopulation excluded and includedLaw and order Problem solvingSecrecy Openness
Shortage of Excess of information information Deficit Information Surplus critical but lackingImpact of disaster Time
Events can be subject to different interpretations...• in the World Trade Center collapse 500 of the victims were aliens, some without visas and US residency permits• in the Bam earthquake many residents dug frantically among the ruins of their homes .... trying to recover staches of heroin etc. More realism and less image is needed.
But public perception of disasters continues to be dominated by myths and inaccuracies enthusiastically propagated bythe mass media.
"Myth" no. 1: In general terms, disastersare truly exceptional events.
"Myth" no. 2:Disasters kill people without respect to differences of social class.
"Myth" no. 3: Hiding under desks offers goodprotection if there is an earthquake.
What is self-protective behaviour?• roll up into a corner?• get under a doorway?• dont rush out all together• avoid falling objects• protect your head, neck and back• ....or what?
"Myth" no. 4: Trapped people survive for many daysunder the rubble of collapsed buildings.
Percentage of people brought out alive from under collapsed builings 0 50 100 10.5 Hours 3 12 1Survival time Days 2 3 4 5 7 10 15
Bam, Iran In the Bam quake (26.12.03) 1600 rescuersDicembre 2003 from 43 nations saved only 30 people. It was not an unusual situation....
Technical rescue should not be imported from The solution: far away.• encourage the formation of local search-and-rescue groups in the areas of major risk• promote the transfer of technology and training• international twinning of SAR groups.
"Myth" no. 5:Disasters cause a great deal of chaos and thus cannot be managed systematically.
"Myth" no. 6:Usually, the first assistance in disasteris supplied by the emergency services.
"Myth" no. 7: When a disaster occurs there is usually a shortage of resources and for thisreason the event cannot be managed well.
"Myth" no. 8:When disasters occur people should donate used clothes.
"Myth" no. 10:When disaster happens, people tend to panic.
Terrorism: a climate of fear.... Many eminent people in prominentpositions in public life (top civil servants,politicians, scientists, police chiefs, etc.) have given the mass media their opinions on the probable behaviour of the general public during a disaster,opinions absolutely without any foundation of research in the social sciences (sociology, social psychology, etc.).
"Myth" no. 11:People will flee in large numbers from a disaster area.
"Myth" no. 12:After disaster has struck, peopletend to be dazed and apathetic.
"Myth" no. 13: Disasters commonly give rise to spontaneous manifestations of antisocial, behaviour, such as outbreaks of looting.Instead we have the therapeutic community
"Myth" no. 14:Unburied dead bodies constitute ahealth hazard and will contaminate water supplies.
The mass media continually state that thepresence of unburied bodies after disaster can and will cause disease epidemics.
"Myth" no. 15: Spraying bodies, rubbleand survivors with disinfectant stops the spread of disease.
"Myth" no. 16: Disease epidemics are a very commonresult of the disruption and poor health caused by major disasters.
"Myth" no. 17:Field hospitals are useful forthe treatment of the injured.
"Myth" no. 18: Great quantities and assortments ofmedicines should be sent to disaster areas.
"Myth" no. 20:Technology will save the world from disasters.
Toulouse21 September 2001Explosion in a nitrogen fertilizer factory • 12 dead, 180 injured (30 seriously) • major damage over a 5 km radius • toxic cloud of ammoniaThe factory that exploded was situated next to another that made space rocket fuel !!!
"Myth" no. 22:Earthquake magnitude is alwaysmeasured on the Richter scale.
"Myth" no. 23:There is such a thing as "earthquake weather".
Our image of disasters is conditioned far too much by Hollywood!
Obligation Editorial to inform independence the public and freedom Mutual Emergency antipathy Representatives and disaster or of the mass managers collaborative media relationship? Public information Sales and ratings; centres; warnings reputation; and alerts; revenue from informing the advertisingrelatives of victims
Feedback Call Civil centre Theprotection general Direct service communication public Pressconferences, communiques Consumer relations The mass Feedback media
Information 2: role of technology in the management of information
Wisdom: ability to make decisions on the basis of principles, experience and knowledge Knowledge: understanding of howthings function (or should function) Information: description of physical and social situations Data: basic facts and statistics COMMUNICATION
Old ideas...• rigid structure• hierarchy• military doctrine• secrecy• cordon• command and control• security• civil defence.
New ideas...• planning• collaboration• flexible, adaptable management• limited "span of control"• information sharing• IT support• accredited journalists• involving the public• civil protection.
Some effects of the information and communications technology revolution• flattening of the chain of command• IT support for disaster response• overload of information delivery systems• artificiality and isolation from the reality on the ground• the emergency manager must study new ways to inform himself and others.
Emergency manager input and consultation Display and analysis technology Ability to analyse data Predictive data analysis circuit models of events Data banks data emergency Disastermanagement relief circuit
Technology as a source of risk reduction Benign Ceaseless developmentMalignant of technologyTechnology as Technologyan inadvertent as a deliberatesource of risk source of risk Risk Cultural management filter practices
Complex emergencies: situations ofpolitical, economic and military collapseand damage to the fabric of society Aceh (Indonesia) Afghanistan Kenya Africa meridionale Kosovo e i Balcani Angola Liberia Burundi Pakistan settentrionale Cecenia Palestina e Israele Colombia Rwanda Corea del Nord Sierra Leone Eritrea e Ethiopia Somalia Grandi Laghi Africani Sri Lanka Haiti il Sudan Il Caucaso Timor Orientale Iraq Uganda
The "complex emergencies":-• around the world are about 25• 60 million refugees and 25 million internally displaced persons (IDPs)• the gap between rich and poor is widening• powerful interests direct global traffic in arms, people and drugs• increasing dilemma of neutrality• increasing risk of revenge attacks.
The "Military Cross" War and conflict Military assistance Insecurity Poverty Vulnerability and marginalisationHumanitarian assistance Natural disasters
Science Military Humanitarian assistance assistance Global Informal and exploitation black economy Creation "Capacity of poverty, building":marginalisation, creation ofprecariousness resilience The international community
Hijacking of assistance Justice Impartiality RobberyTotal What and rape war future? of victims Relief Humanitarianism Politicisation of relief suppies
• losses in disaster will continue to increase steeplyFUTUROLOGY • poverty and vulnerability will define ever more closely the areas of greatest susceptibility to disasters • at the world scale, one or more great events will cause a drastic reorganisation disaster preparedness • the catalyst event may be a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, or a biological or radioactive incident.
Emerging risks... Radio- Great active geophysical emissions events: volcanic eruptions, Toxicearthquakes, CBRN spills extra- terrestrial Epidemics, impacts, Pandemics epizoozics, etc. epiphytotics
In civil protectionhistory does tendto repeat itself...
Lisbon earthquake,1755, and New York attacks, 2001
History can help us tounderstand the presentand predict the future.... ....it is a vital element of planning scenarios.
• the job of the emergency manager will become more and more complex• emergency planning will have to tackle new kinds of event• emergency management will very slowly become a profession• the level of international participation in disasters will rise.
SEVEN SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT Geography & anthropology: cultural (human) Sociology anthropology Physical &construction HAZARD, Psychology sciences & psychiatry RISK & DISASTER STUDIES and perhaps an eighth...Disaster medicine & epidemiology Economic & financial studies Criminal justice Development and forensic studies science
CONSTITUENT Earth & environmental sciences DISCIPLINES Ecology GeologyAtmospheric & water sciences (& Geomorphology) Geophysics Climatology (inc. Seismology) Construction sciences Hydraulics Vulcanology Hydrology Architecture Meteorology Civil engineering Geotechnical engineering Structural engineering Mechanical & Information & HAZARD, electrical engineeringComputational communication RISK & & analytical technology (ICT) DISASTER Computer technology sciences Remote sensing Cartography Risk analysis (inc. Development studies risk identification, Epidemiology Economics estimation, Nursing Geography, History management & Nutrition Jurisprudence & legal stds communication) Pharmacology Urban & regional planning General medicine Mass media studies Surgery & Psychology emergency medicine Sociology Public health, hygiene Social & spatial sciences Health sciences & epidemiology Veterinary sciences
Emergency management training and education ANALYSIS EX HAZARD ER FIE ES CIS RIS MET LD K M HOD ITIG S O ATI F CON ON C CE BASI EMERGENCY PT S PLANNING ND EM Y A ION R VE UCT NG MA ERGE O NA EC STR NNI GE NCY DIS CIO OLO ORM UBLIC R N ME EME N LA SO YC H NT O P NT NAG ATIO EC PS AS LOG GY R TE Y P R INF AN MA D
Research Experience Certification of competence Emerging Training professional programmes figure Recognition and an institutional role for thePolicies and professional figure Organi- legislation sation
Emergency Restoration of planning and basic services organisation of security systemsSafety and security measures Emergency Warning and action and preparations; damage damage limitation prevention measures measures
Mitigation and risk Preparation reduction and warning Linkages Recovery Emergency and actionreconstruction Integration through planning
DEMAND CREATION OF A NEW CULTURE OF CIVIL POTENTIAL PROTECTIONNEEDS TO BE EXPLOITED SUPPLY
Government Satisfaction paternalism Social Inclusive ...or... exclusion outcomes Public participation in Discontent decision making Discontent(must be informed)
Sustainable emergency management:-• is centred upon the local level (but is harmonised from above)• has the support and involvement of the population• is based on plans that are fully disseminated and frequently revised• is a fundamental, every-day service for the population and is taken seriously.