Natural Disaster RiskA Global Perspective       David Alexander       Global Risk Forum - Davos (CH)
Trends in disaster losses are unsustainable.  In the second half of the 20th century    the world experienced increases of...
Then (1950s)            Now (2007)Under-reporting of     More completedisasters              recordingCounting only direct...
An asset is not            A hazard is notvulnerable unless           hazardous unlessit is threatened Resilience   it thr...
Primary              • cause and effect             VULNERABILITY     Secondary                 Complex• interaction of ca...
Total: life isNewly             generallygenerated:       precarious      Economic:caused by                        people...
Indeterminacy     Climate                  change        Collateral        Cascading       vulnerability       effects    ...
Falling hazard          RisingRisk: value of probable costs and losses   Hazard: probability of occurrence       with dimi...
Population                (community)       Plans,                 protection    procedures,                              ...
Knowledge                       Knowledge of    of hazards                        community     and their                 ...
RedundancyThe ingredientsof resilience   Adaptability                   Attitude                  Participation           ...
Disaster Risk Reduction          ResilienceCivil Contingencies Management       Civil Protection          Disaster        ...
Civil contingencies Business     Civil       Civilcontinuity protection   defence          management           Resilience...
Community disaster planning    Volunteerism                            Donations        Self-organisation            Commu...
The creation of a culture of civil protection                 HABIT                              INSTRUMENTS OF           ...
Hazards                   and risks:                    disaster                  preparedness                            ...
needs to be           needs to be shortened   lengthened              impact     warning       and              emergency ...
Perception                    Knowledge                 Risk              assessment   Risk                          Risk ...
Organisational                    Naturalsystems:                         systems:management                        functi...
OptimisationTechnology                  Response Message                    Perception   Plan                      Culture...
In times of peace  Planning,        Fusion with warning and      sustainabilitypreparedness         agenda Enhanced       ...
Health                       Contingencysystem                          planningEmergency                        Search   ...
MAJOR DISASTER                     RISKS                 (e.g. floods, drought,                 landslides, heatwaves)EMER...
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A Global Perspective on Disaster Management

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A Global Perspective on Disaster Management

  1. 1. Natural Disaster RiskA Global Perspective David Alexander Global Risk Forum - Davos (CH)
  2. 2. Trends in disaster losses are unsustainable. In the second half of the 20th century the world experienced increases of:• 250% in the number of recorded disasters• 500% in number of disasters with victims• 500% in the number of affected people• 1500% in the total cost of disasters Disasters• 1640% in the cost 1900-2009 of insured damage.
  3. 3. Then (1950s) Now (2007)Under-reporting of More completedisasters recordingCounting only direct Quantifying indirecteffects effectsSmaller population of Larger population,hazardous places greater densitiesLess inequality Growing inequality and marginalisationLess fixed capital at Relentless accumulationrisk of fixed capitalSimpler socio-economic More complex networksnetworks
  4. 4. An asset is not A hazard is notvulnerable unless hazardous unlessit is threatened Resilience it threatens by something something Hazard RISK VulnerabilityExtreme Elements events at risk Exposure
  5. 5. Primary • cause and effect VULNERABILITY Secondary Complex• interaction of causes • complicated • coincidences interactions
  6. 6. Total: life isNewly generallygenerated: precarious Economic:caused by people lackchanges in adequatecircumstances occupation Vulnerability TechnologicalDelinquent: technocratic:caused by caused bycorruption, the riskinessnegligence, Residual: caused by of technologyetc. lack of modernisation
  7. 7. Indeterminacy Climate change Collateral Cascading vulnerability effects Interaction Secondary between risks disasters "Fat-tailed" distributions Probability of impacts
  8. 8. Falling hazard RisingRisk: value of probable costs and losses Hazard: probability of occurrence with diminishing vulnerability Vulnerability: potential damage probability of with increasing occurrence seriousness of potential Vertical axis scales: consequences Risk as product of hazard and vulnerability Total annual predicted costs and losses Severity Fat-tailed distribution
  9. 9. Population (community) Plans, protection procedures, protocols Disaster risk reduction Hazardforecasting, Human monitoring, Incident and material etc. management resources
  10. 10. Knowledge Knowledge of of hazards community and their vulerability impacts DRR Knowledge of copingDisaster capacity and Risk resilienceReduction
  11. 11. RedundancyThe ingredientsof resilience Adaptability Attitude Participation ...and communication
  12. 12. Disaster Risk Reduction ResilienceCivil Contingencies Management Civil Protection Disaster Management Broader Changing scope and objectives outcomes of emergency management
  13. 13. Civil contingencies Business Civil Civilcontinuity protection defence management Resilience The risk environment
  14. 14. Community disaster planning Volunteerism Donations Self-organisation Community resources Organisation Resources Imposed Governmental organisation resources Laws, protocols, directivesStandards, norms, guidelines International resources
  15. 15. The creation of a culture of civil protection HABIT INSTRUMENTS OF DISSEMINATION MASS • mass media EDUCATION CULTURE • targeted campaign PROGRAMME • social networks • internet SOCIAL CAPITAL Augmentation
  16. 16. Hazards and risks: disaster preparedness UncertainGovernance: future: democratic Livelihoods: long-termparticipation diversity trends in decision and security climate making change capacity RESILIENCE: to adapt managing risks adapting to change securing resources
  17. 17. needs to be needs to be shortened lengthened impact warning and emergency evacuation management and rescue repair ofpreparation basic for the isolation services recovery andnext event reconstruction needs to beRisk reduction and disaster mitigation strengthened
  18. 18. Perception Knowledge Risk assessment Risk Risk Disastermanagement analysis threat RiskInstitutional communication Adaptation learning
  19. 19. Organisational Naturalsystems: systems:management function Hazard Vulnerability ResilienceSocial Technicalsystems: systems:behaviour malfunction
  20. 20. OptimisationTechnology Response Message Perception Plan Culture Social factors
  21. 21. In times of peace Planning, Fusion with warning and sustainabilitypreparedness agenda Enhanced Organised structural non-structural protection protection In times of crisis
  22. 22. Health Contingencysystem planningEmergency Search Emergencymedical andresponse response rescueEmergency Emergencycommunications management
  23. 23. MAJOR DISASTER RISKS (e.g. floods, drought, landslides, heatwaves)EMERGING DAILY RISKS SUSTAINABILITY RISKS(e.g. climate OF DISASTER (e.g. food change, RISK REDUCTION security, pandemics) poverty) GENERAL SUSTAINABILITY (e.g. lifestyles, economic activities, environment)
  24. 24. d.alexander@alice.itemergency-planning.blogspot.comwww.slideshare.com/dealexander
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