GLOBAL SEA LEVEL RISE AND THE CONSEQUENCES FOR THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT 5 JUNE 2008 PROFESSORS MARTIN FISCHER AND BEN SCHWEGLER NATHAN CHASE, VIVIEN CHUA, DAVID NEWELL Dammed if You Do, Damned if You Don’t Inundated areas resulting from 2m SLR http://flood.firetree.net/

Introduction

How we got here… “ With a little research and advice from the professors, putting together a basic dike design was fairly straightforward… after that, I was hooked! Countless hours later, the design process continues…” – Nathan Chase

Some striking results… David Newell Gravel shortages 50+ years for China 65+ years for India

David Newell

Gravel shortages

50+ years for China

65+ years for India

Some striking results… Vivien Chua The first step in reliable engineering design is modeling - we are closer to creating a better world!

Vivien Chua

The first step in reliable engineering design is modeling - we are closer to creating a better world!

Background and Need

Coastal Development & Ports Over half of world’s population lives within 200km of the coast (UN, 2001) 1 35% coastal pop. growth projected between 1995-2025 (Columbia U.) 2 7.187 billion metric tons of seaborne trade in 2006 (AAPA) 3

Over half of world’s population lives within 200km of the coast (UN, 2001) 1

35% coastal pop. growth projected between 1995-2025 (Columbia U.) 2

7.187 billion metric tons of seaborne trade in 2006 (AAPA) 3

Sea Level Rise – Fact or Fiction? Model does not include “future dynamical changes in ice flow”

Hurricane Katrina Hurricane Andrew Natural Disasters

Hurricane Katrina

Hurricane Andrew

Cyclone Nargis

Project Overview

Project Overview Analyze coastal protection design alternatives Quantify current/projected capacity of design & construction industry Model the response using 2D/3D/4D tools and disseminate information Compare capacity to what is needed

Analyze coastal protection design alternatives

Quantify current/projected capacity of design & construction industry

Model the response using 2D/3D/4D tools and disseminate information

Compare capacity to what is needed

Limited understanding of DCI capacity No official statistics for US Natural disasters can cause significant impact (e.g., Hurricane Katrina/Rita) Difficulty in compiling global data Resources are allocated on a regional or national basis e.g. cranes, dredges, steel

No official statistics for US

Natural disasters can cause significant impact (e.g., Hurricane Katrina/Rita)

Difficulty in compiling global data

Resources are allocated on a regional or national basis e.g. cranes, dredges, steel

How to Protect Ports Define the protection strategy and scope e.g. dikes, levees, landfill for port surface Develop a “minimum reasonable design” for the scope Obtain cost data reflective of regional conditions Compare the design and scope to global data on materials, weather, construction goods and services, etc.

Define the protection strategy and scope

e.g. dikes, levees, landfill for port surface

Develop a “minimum reasonable design” for the scope

Obtain cost data reflective of regional conditions

Compare the design and scope to global data on materials, weather, construction goods and services, etc.

Why ports? Fixed infrastructure that cannot be relocated easily High economic value, easy to measure Clear baseline of what will be protected Data availability Simplifying assumption (difficulties with residential/commercial developments, undeveloped areas, etc.)

Fixed infrastructure that cannot be relocated easily

High economic value, easy to measure

Clear baseline of what will be protected

Data availability

Simplifying assumption (difficulties with residential/commercial developments, undeveloped areas, etc.)

Port Selection 1 Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEU) is one 20-ft container (one 40-ft container = 2 TEUs)

Methodology for Case Studies Goal: evaluate and strengthen project by performing detailed case studies in different regions Overall procedure: Site identification Conceptual design alternatives evaluation Schematic design development Incorporation of results in overall project Tools have been developed to simplify the data collection and design element

Goal: evaluate and strengthen project by performing detailed case studies in different regions

Overall procedure:

Site identification

Conceptual design alternatives evaluation

Schematic design development

Incorporation of results in overall project

Tools have been developed to simplify the data collection and design element

Current Status

Current Status Port Characteristics World’s most important 177 ports, integrated into Google Earth

Port Characteristics

World’s most important 177 ports, integrated into Google Earth

Current Status GIS model “automatically” determines: - Protection length - Average protection height

GIS model “automatically” determines:

- Protection length

- Average protection height

Current Status Cost and availability/capacity data (US, Asia, Europe) RS Means UN Countrywatch Etc.

Cost and availability/capacity data (US, Asia, Europe)

RS Means

UN

Countrywatch

Etc.

Current Status Coastal Protection Design tool Offshore dike, navigation lock, pump station, maintenance dredging Dike Lock Pump Port Open Ocean Dredge River flooding Silt Wave overtopping, scour

Coastal Protection Design tool

Offshore dike, navigation lock, pump station, maintenance dredging

Long Beach Harbor a Case Study “ Manual” design 10.5 miles long 25m high - Cost: $1693 million Time to construct: 21.1 years “ Model” design 10 miles long 9m high - Cost: $712 million - Time to construct: 9.7 years

“ Manual” design 10.5 miles long 25m high

- Cost: $1693 million

Time to construct: 21.1 years

“ Model” design 10 miles long 9m high

- Cost: $712 million

- Time to construct: 9.7 years

Case study: San Francisco Bay

1 meter sea level rise predicted by 2100!!! Sea level record at Golden Gate

Areas at risk in San Francisco Bay GIS modeling 2D hydrodynamic modeling 1 meter sea level rise http://flood.firetree.net

GIS modeling

2D hydrodynamic modeling

Sacramento-San Joaquin delta Golden Gate channel Calibration at NOAA station Golden Gate (9414290)

What if we do nothing? 2D hydrodynamic modeling Flooding risks Changes to circulation patterns Deterioration of water quality Disappearing habitats/ecosystems Modifications to sediment distributions

2D hydrodynamic modeling

Flooding risks

Changes to circulation patterns

Deterioration of water quality

Disappearing habitats/ecosystems

Modifications to sediment distributions

Erosion of salt ponds & submerging tidal marshes Average depth of tidal marshes and salt ponds = 0.1 m 1 m sea level rise

Action plan: Partial intrusion barrage at Golden Gate Regulate amount of sea water entering and leaving the bay Sea water entering bay as flood tide

Regulate amount of sea water entering and leaving the bay

Sea water entering bay as flood tide

A tidal power barrage? Estimate of tidal power at Golden Gate where ρ = density of sea water = 1000 kg/m 3 , Q = flow rate, g = acceleration due to gravity = 9.81 m 2 /s, h = tidal amplitude In a neap-spring cycle, Max Q = 5000 m 3 /s Max h = 2 m Max P = 1x10 8 W

Estimate of tidal power at Golden Gate

Results

Measuring our Results

Google Earth Demonstration Netherlands Stanford/S.F. Bay San Pedro Bay (L.A.) Port Characteristics Port Polygons 4D Model

Netherlands

Stanford/S.F. Bay

San Pedro Bay (L.A.)

Port Characteristics

Port Polygons

4D Model

Future Directions

Collaborations, Raising Awareness New collaborations in Netherlands, India, etc. Stanford Engineering & Public Policy Framework Project: Climate Change and its Impact on the Built Environment Write journal articles Make GoogleEarth project data available

New collaborations in Netherlands, India, etc.

Stanford Engineering & Public Policy Framework Project: Climate Change and its Impact on the Built Environment

Write journal articles

Make GoogleEarth project data available

Fall 2008 Undergrad/Grad Course 3 unit CEE course, but need students in economics, public policy, computer science Focus: Principles & practices for designing a marine construction project, as applied to the Stanford Engineering Framework project Week 1: Introduction, project background, reading on case studies (Netherlands, Japan, Hurricane Katrina) Week 2: Marine Construction industry: equipment, materials, labor (guest lecturer from industry) Week 3: Site selection and characterization (guest lecture on coastal development) Week 4-6: Conceptual design (guest lecture) Week 7-9: Schematic design (guest lecture on hydrologic modeling) Week 10: Writing up and presenting results (in class presentations, final reports) Other elements: intensive collaboration session with students from Delft, Madras/Chennai

3 unit CEE course, but need students in economics, public policy, computer science

Focus: Principles & practices for designing a marine construction project, as applied to the Stanford Engineering Framework project

Week 1: Introduction, project background, reading on case studies (Netherlands, Japan, Hurricane Katrina)

Week 2: Marine Construction industry: equipment, materials, labor (guest lecturer from industry)

Week 3: Site selection and characterization (guest lecture on coastal development)

Week 4-6: Conceptual design (guest lecture)

Week 7-9: Schematic design (guest lecture on hydrologic modeling)

Week 10: Writing up and presenting results (in class presentations, final reports)

Other elements: intensive collaboration session with students from Delft, Madras/Chennai

Acknowledgements Fred Raichlen, California Institute of Technology Kyle Johnson, Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Bob Bittner, Ben C. Gerwick Inc. Andrew Peterman, Walt Disney Imagineering Chris Holm, Walt Disney Co. Austin Becker, Rhode Island Sea Grant Christian Brockmann, Bremen University of Applied Sciences Prior Stanford students: Mike Dvorak, Lakshmi Alagappan, Evridiki Fekka, Elisa Zhang

Fred Raichlen, California Institute of Technology

Kyle Johnson, Great Lakes Dredge & Dock

Bob Bittner, Ben C. Gerwick Inc.

Andrew Peterman, Walt Disney Imagineering

Chris Holm, Walt Disney Co.

Austin Becker, Rhode Island Sea Grant

Christian Brockmann, Bremen University of Applied Sciences

Prior Stanford students: Mike Dvorak, Lakshmi Alagappan, Evridiki Fekka, Elisa Zhang

Questions?