Studied by the Club of Rome (1970) › Population › Agricultural production › Industrial production › Natural resources › Pollution These factors grow at exponential rate Revision for exponential rate
Lilies on a pond -example The apparent suddenness with which the exponential growth of a phenomenon approaches to a fixed limit. If the predicted growth of world population is correct then there is an alarmingly short space of time for preventive action.
Physical necessities that support all physiological and industrial activity (like food, raw materials and fuels) Social neccesities (like peace, stability and education)
Team assumed that there would be no great changes in human values in future and produced this graph.
If present trends continue, the limits to growth will be reached in the next 100 years – the result will probably be a sudden and uncontrollable decline in population and industrial capabilities. It is possible to alter these growth trends and to establish a condition of ecological and economic stability that is sustainable into the future.
It’s a world model: not distinguish between different parts of the world. Ignores spatial distribution of population, resources, agriculture, industry and pollution. People and resources do not always coincide with space. Their distribution and size are part of the world’s problem. The model emphasizes exponential growth and not the rate of discovery of new resources or of new users of resources.