48.17mil 30.64mil 14.7 mil 4.3 mil Thanks to supporters like you, Democrats have won back-to-back wave elections(+30 seats in ’06, +24 seats in ’08, 3 straight competitive special elections in ‘09/’10)
In addition to protecting our 2006 and 2008 gains, Democrats face a historical headwind this year
Right-Wing Outside Groups Outside Groups Aiding GOP Cause This Cycle 48.17mil Aided by the Citizens United ruling, groups like Karl Rove’s “American Crossroads are set to spend millions on swift-boat style attack ads
2010 DCCC Game Plan Prepare our Frontline Members & Swing District Members Stay on Offense Capitalize on GOP’s Problems and Make Election a Choice Mobilization
Making the Elections A Choice Democrats: Working to get the economy on track, creating jobs, fighting for the middle class, and protecting Social Security. Republicans:
more unpaid tax cuts for the wealthiest that add billions to the deficit
Capitalizing on GOP Problems:GOP Brand "The Republican brand is in the trash can...if we were dog food, they would take us off the shelf.“ --Tom Davis, former NRCC Chair
Republican Self ID is at its lowest since 1983– about 20%, and voters’ perception of the party is abysmal.
Democrats are trusted more than Republicans to handle the economy by an 8 point margin. [Washington Post/ABC News poll, 07/07/10]
Only 26 percent of likely voters have confidence in the Republicans in Congress to make the right decisions for the country‘s future, trailing both Congressional Democrats and President Obama. [Washington Post/ABC News poll, 07/07/10]
PA-12 Special Election (May 18, 2010) MarkCritz53% Tim Burns 45%
Critz won all but three counties and outperformed Obama in 7 of 9 counties
Republican groups outspent Dems $1.5 million to $1.3 million
Only district in the country that voted for Kerry and McCain
What the Pundits Said about the PA-12 GOP Failure “There are two parts to any Republican House campaign: the in-state campaign effort and the independent expenditure side run by the NRCC. In this case, like so many other special elections, neither was up to snuff. Democrats out-thought, out-planned and out-executed Republicans on both sides of the equation. This was not a candidate problem, but a problem in messaging, organization, and technical proficiency…” --Charlie Cook “Republicans failed spectacularly, losing on a level playing field where, in this favorable environment, they should have run roughshod over the opposition. Given the resources the GOP poured into the effort to capture the seat and the decisiveness of the defeat outcome casts serious doubt on the idea that the Democratic House majority is in jeopardy.”
PA-12 Lessons Learned Candidates and campaigns matter. Elections are a choice, not a referendum. Democrat vs. Republican message test case: Middle class message trumped GOP effort to nationalize race. Republican agenda effective against Republican candidates. Outsourcing, Privatizing Social Security and Medicare, & the National Sales Tax. DCCC field program is effective and ready. Overcame GOP “enthusiasm gap.”
Capitalizing on GOP Problems:Tea Party Influence The tea party has presented three problems for Republicans: 48.17mil Extreme Tea Party candidate beats moderate (and more electable) Republican candidate 4.3 mil In November 2009, Democrats won a district that had been held by Republicans for 120 years by defeating a tea party candidate backed by Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh, and Glenn Beck
Tea Party: Young Gun Misfires Parker GriffithAL-05 (Griffith) Vaughn WardID-01 (Minnick) Coulson & Green IL-10 (Kirk-Open) Ethan Hastert IL-14 (Foster) Jim Gibbons IA-03 (Boswell) Jeff Reetz KY-03 (Yarmuth) Lou Huddleston NC-08 (Kissell) Paul Huber PA-03 (Dahlkemper)
Capitalizing on GOP Problems:Tea Party Influence The tea party has presented three problems for Republicans: Republican candidates are being forced to take unpopular extreme positions to satisfy the ideological base. 48.17mil 4.3 mil In November 2009, Democrats won a district that had been held by Republicans for 120 years by defeating a tea party candidate backed by Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh, and Glenn Beck
Capitalizing on GOP Problems:Tea Party Influence The tea party has presented three problems for Republicans: Tea Party candidates run as third party candidates which is splitting the Republican vote. There are more than 100 conservative third party candidates on the ballot. 48.17mil 4.3 mil In November 2009, Democrats won a district that had been held by Republicans for 120 years by defeating a tea party candidate backed by Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh, and Glenn Beck
Third Party Candidates MI-07 (Schauer): US Taxpayer Scott Aughney NY-23 (Owens): Conservative Doug Hoffman OH-18 (Space): Libertarian Lindsey Sutton TX-17 (Edwards): Libertarian Richard Kelly SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin): Independent Thomas Marking VA-05 (Perriello): Independent Jeffery Clark VA-02 (Nye): Independent Kenny Golden FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart-Open): TEA Party RolyArrojo MI-01 (Stupak-Open): Independent Glen Wilson
Flawed Republican Candidates NJ-03 (Adler) Jon Runyan
Flawed Republican Candidates Jon RunyanNJ-03 (Adler)
Runyan is trying to run as a fiscal conservative, but has abused the farmland assessment program to get an absurd break on his own property taxes and has repeatedly failed to pay his own taxes on time.
Michelle RollinsDE-AL (Castle-Open)
Her compensation quadrupled when her bank received millions in TARP money on taxpayers’ dime
Jim RenacciOH-16 (Boccieri)
Trying to run as a fiscal conservative but has abused the farmland assessment program to get an absurd break on his own property taxes and has repeatedly failed to pay his own taxes on time.
David HarmerCA-11 (McNerney)
While Harmer constantly rails against TARP, the company he worked for paid him a bonus and severance after it took bailout funds.
Support our Democratic Candidates dccc.org/frontline dccc.org/redtoblue
You Drive Our Success Your support has never been more critical. Join our Victory Partners Program today by visiting www.dccc.org/victory