TREB Housing Market Update

        The Condo Network

         October 30, 2009

             Jason Mercer
   Senior Mana...
Low Rates Have Had The Desired Effect

Bank of Canada
Target for the Overnight Lending Rate
6%

5%

4%

3%

2%
1%

0%



S...
Low Rates Have Had The Desired Effect

Average 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate
22%


17%


12%


  7%


  2%



Source: Statist...
GTA Housing Has Remained Affordable

TREB Affordability Indicator
Share of Average Household Income Used for Mortgage Prin...
2010 Sales Will Remain Strong

TREB MLS® Sales Projection: 2010
35,000                              90-Per Cent Confidence...
Condo Share of Sales is Increasing

            24 Per cent
       2008 Condo Apartment Share of MLS®




                ...
Geography of Condo Sales
Geography of Condo Sales
New Listings Will Grow in 2010

TREB MLS® New Listings Projection: 2010
55,000                               90-Per Cent C...
…Especially for Condos

Toronto CMA Condominium Apartment Completions
(12-Month Moving Average)
1,400
1,200
1,000
  800
  ...
More Condo Completions in 2010

Toronto CMA Condominium Apartments
Under Construction
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
1...
More Balanced Market in 2010

TREB MLS® Sales-to-New Listings Ratio/Price Growth Projection
                              ...
Average Price Growth Will Be Positive in 2010

TREB MLS® Average Price Projection: 2010
475,000                           ...
Geography of Condo Price

Top 10 and Bottem 10 Average Condo Apartment Prices
 N17
 E11
 W05
 W18
 E10
 E17
 E12
 W04
 W24...
Geography of Condo Price

Top 10 and Bottem 10 Average Condo Apartment Prices
 E02
 W16
 E12
 E16
 W21
 W29
 C09
 C10
 N07...
Condo Share of Total GTA Rental Stock

GTA Rental Apartment Stock Shares
         Condominium
          Rental, 12%




  ...
Condo Rental Stock Up; Average Rent Down
32 Per Cent           51 Per Cent
Rental Transactions   Rental Listings
  May-Aug...
Wrap-Up

Leading Indicators: The Road to Recovery

   Historic interest rate cuts have provided stimulus.
    Average GDP...
Wrap-Up
GDP and Lagging Indicators: Sustainable Growth?

   June GDP release starting to confirm consensus
    view that ...
Accessing TREB Economic Commentaries
Accessing TREB Economic Commentaries
Accessing TREB Economic Commentaries
QUESTIONS?
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Condo Network October 30 2009

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Condo Network October 30 2009

  1. 1. TREB Housing Market Update The Condo Network October 30, 2009 Jason Mercer Senior Manager of Market Analysis Toronto Real Estate Board
  2. 2. Low Rates Have Had The Desired Effect Bank of Canada Target for the Overnight Lending Rate 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Source: Bank of Canada
  3. 3. Low Rates Have Had The Desired Effect Average 5-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate 22% 17% 12% 7% 2% Source: Statistics Canada
  4. 4. GTA Housing Has Remained Affordable TREB Affordability Indicator Share of Average Household Income Used for Mortgage Principal and Interest, Property Taxes and Utilities on the Averaged Priced GTA Resale Home 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Data and Calculation; Statistics Canada
  5. 5. 2010 Sales Will Remain Strong TREB MLS® Sales Projection: 2010 35,000 90-Per Cent Confidence Interval 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 50-Per Cent Confidence Interval 10,000 Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
  6. 6. Condo Share of Sales is Increasing 24 Per cent 2008 Condo Apartment Share of MLS® 20 Per cent 1999 Condo Apartment Share of MLS®
  7. 7. Geography of Condo Sales
  8. 8. Geography of Condo Sales
  9. 9. New Listings Will Grow in 2010 TREB MLS® New Listings Projection: 2010 55,000 90-Per Cent Confidence Interval 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 50-Per Cent Confidence Interval 15,000 Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
  10. 10. …Especially for Condos Toronto CMA Condominium Apartment Completions (12-Month Moving Average) 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Source: CMHC; TREB Adjustment
  11. 11. More Condo Completions in 2010 Toronto CMA Condominium Apartments Under Construction 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Source: CMHC
  12. 12. More Balanced Market in 2010 TREB MLS® Sales-to-New Listings Ratio/Price Growth Projection 80% Sales-to-New Listings Ratio (Left Scale) 30% Average Annual Price Growth Sales-to-New Listings Ratio Average Annual Price Growth (Right Scale) 70% 20% 60% 10% 50% 0% 40% -10% 30% -20% Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
  13. 13. Average Price Growth Will Be Positive in 2010 TREB MLS® Average Price Projection: 2010 475,000 90-Per Cent Confidence Interval 450,000 425,000 400,000 375,000 50-Per Cent Confidence Interval 350,000 325,000 Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
  14. 14. Geography of Condo Price Top 10 and Bottem 10 Average Condo Apartment Prices N17 E11 W05 W18 E10 E17 E12 W04 W24 W10 W02 C01 E02 E01 C10 C03 N12 C02 C12 C09 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 Thousands of Dollars
  15. 15. Geography of Condo Price Top 10 and Bottem 10 Average Condo Apartment Prices E02 W16 E12 E16 W21 W29 C09 C10 N07 N06 W22 C12 W18 N11 N18 E06 E14 C11 N08 W13 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
  16. 16. Condo Share of Total GTA Rental Stock GTA Rental Apartment Stock Shares Condominium Rental, 12% Purpose-Built Source: CMHC Rental, 88%
  17. 17. Condo Rental Stock Up; Average Rent Down 32 Per Cent 51 Per Cent Rental Transactions Rental Listings May-Aug. 2009 May-Aug. 2009 One Per Cent Rental Transactions May-Aug. 2009
  18. 18. Wrap-Up Leading Indicators: The Road to Recovery  Historic interest rate cuts have provided stimulus. Average GDP growth likely by end of 2010.  Low rates initially prompted a recovery in big- ticket consumer spending on homes and cars.  Broader retail spending has improved as well, pointing to stronger consumer confidence. Still waiting on stronger US demand leading to X increased exports, especially auto-related
  19. 19. Wrap-Up GDP and Lagging Indicators: Sustainable Growth?  June GDP release starting to confirm consensus view that Q3 will experience economic growth The unemployment rate will be volatile and could ? get worse before it gets better. Should start to see job market recovery in second half of 2010. If the Bank of Canada is correct about inflation, ? we should see orderly, incremental rate increases. Value of Canadian dollar now more of a concern. ? Bank of Canada has “pushed forward” outlook.
  20. 20. Accessing TREB Economic Commentaries
  21. 21. Accessing TREB Economic Commentaries
  22. 22. Accessing TREB Economic Commentaries
  23. 23. QUESTIONS?
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