IPSOS presentation to IABC Calgary March 19 2009
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IPSOS presentation to IABC Calgary March 19 2009

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IPSOS presentation to IABC by Tim Moro, SVP IPSOS North America, Calgary March 19 2009. Uploaded and shared with permission from Mr. Moro by Doug Lacombe, MBA.

IPSOS presentation to IABC by Tim Moro, SVP IPSOS North America, Calgary March 19 2009. Uploaded and shared with permission from Mr. Moro by Doug Lacombe, MBA.

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  • 1. IABC/Calgary Luncheon - Turbulent Times and the Canadian Mindset Tim Moro Senior Vice President Ipsos North America March 19, 2009
  • 2. The Small Print… • Ipsos Reid has done no partisan polling for a political party since 1986… • We do $170 million of market research in Canada of which 2% is for Governments (federal and provincial, all of which are on the public record)… • We do $350 million of market research in North America and are part of the Ipsos group of market research companies spanning 45 countries with annual revenues in excess of $1.6 billion… • We are the media agency of record of CanWest News and Global TV in Canada, The McClatchy News Company in the United States, and Reuters International… Our Calgary office – which is quickly approaching its 20th anniversary – provides • full service research services through a local staff of 25 and the full resources of Ipsos North America. 2
  • 3. Recession Through the Media Lens …
  • 4. Its All About … Arrows 4
  • 5. And About … Images 5
  • 6. And, of course … Headlines 6
  • 7. But What About Canadians? - Some important context for business communicators
  • 8. The Old & New Worlds of Communication* *Acknowledgement to Neville Hobson. Presentation given to FEIEA 50 Conference, Brussels, Belgium October 2005
  • 9. The Old World Influencers Investors Potential employees MESSAGES Customers Employees Prospects Competitors Partners Press/Analysts 9
  • 10. The New World Influencers Investors Potential employees MESSAGES Customers Employees Prospects Competitors Partners Press/Analysts 10
  • 11. Communication Approaches New World Old World Engage & Participate Transmit Advocate Preach vs Influence & Persuade Command & Control Informal & Formal & Instructive Conversational Build Community Tell Your Audience 11
  • 12. Views on Corporations & Government
  • 13. North American & Global Views on Corporations % Agree % Agree “Major corporations are having a good influence on the way things are going in my country” Overall 55% High Singapore 87% Canada 49% Low France 28% 39% US “Large companies have too much influence on the decisions of government” Overall 74% Argentina High 85% & France 80% Canada Japan & Low 57% Poland 82% US Continued … Survey respondents are the most involved population in each country defined by internet access, voting behavior, instigating political, economic and social discussions, signing petitions and purchasing based on company’s ethical, social or environmental reputation. (n=1,000 adults in each country). Margin of error: 3.1 13 percentage points per country. October 2007
  • 14. North American & Global Views on Corporations continued % Agree % Agree “Government should have complete access to the private information of corporations doing business in their country” Overall 58% High Turkey 80% Canada 65% Low Poland 30% 55% US “Our government should be more aggressive in regulating the activities of national and multinational corporations” Overall 72% High Mexico 86% 77% Canada Low Japan 42% 67% US Survey respondents are the most involved population in each country defined by internet access, voting behavior, instigating political, economic and social discussions, signing petitions and purchasing based on company’s ethical, social or environmental reputation. (n=1,000 adults in each country). Margin of error: 3.1 percentage points per 14 country. October 2007
  • 15. A Global Perspective on the Economy
  • 16. Methodology 22,000 online surveys. 22 countries. • Global @dvisor Semi annual study fielded in April & November. • N = 1,000 completes per country. • 95% confidence level, +/- 3.1% margin of error. • 75% of world’s GDP covered: – US, Canada, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, South Korea, China, Japan, Australia, Russia, India, Czech Republic, Poland, Turkey, Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and Great Britain. • Internet Representation balanced by age, gender, city population, and education levels, with minor added weights applied. • Sample audience is global elites known as the “Intelligaged™” – Upper 1/3 income with a college level degree •Intelligaged™ is a trademark used by Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs, Inc. (quot;Ipsos Public Affairsquot;) and shall not be reproduced or used in any manner without the prior written consent of Ipsos Public Affairs. 16 16
  • 17. Economic Meltdown Average of all countries (Very Good + Somewhat Good) 100% 90% 80% 70% 54% 60% 50% 55% 43% 40% 31% 30% 20% 10% 0% Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Nov-08 A3. Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [INSERT COUNTRY]? 17 17 Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
  • 18. Economic Meltdown All drop except LATAM; Canadians really come back to earth (Describe Economy as Very Good + Somewhat Good) 100% 87% 80% 80% 72% 71% 70% 61% 68% 62% 60% 56% 51% 53% 50% 48% 48% 48% 47% 45% 40% 40% 39% 34% 38% 35% 32% 32% 30% 22% 20% 19% 11% 0% Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Nov-08 LATAM USA APAC European Union G-8 Countries Bric BRIC = key emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India, China A3. Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [INSERT COUNTRY]? 18 18 Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
  • 19. Household Spending - % Cutting Back Total 72% 87% South Korea 84% Argentina Turkey 84% 83% Mexico 81% France 80% China The United States 80% 77% Great Britain 76% Brazil 76% India Australia 75% Italy 75% 73% Russia 73% Japan Canada 70% Belgium 70% 68% Poland 68% Spain The Czech Republic 59% 59% Germany 19 J3. Given the current state of the global economy, have you and your family had to cut back on your household spending recently? 19
  • 20. Specific Cut Backs Average of all countries vs Canada 76% Entertainment 81% 73% Vacations 79% 72% Luxury items 78% 59% Clothing 61% 53% Energy consumption 61% All Countries Canada 47% Gasoline/driving 60% 41% Groceries 48% 33% Cell Phone 27% 23% Cable TV 25% 11% Education 6% 20 20 J4. What are the specific things that you and your family are cutting back on these days? Base: respondents who have cut back in J3
  • 21. US Issues
  • 22. Tracking the US National Issue Agenda American Public Policy Issues: 2005 - 2009 February April January April January Apr January Apr % 2009 2008 2008 2007 2007 2006 2006 2005 Economy 76 39 20 6 13 14 18 19 War/Foreign affairs 7 25 40 47 48 47 36 32 Domestic issues (NET) 11 25 28 31 28 29 37 40 Political leaders 1 5 5 6 9 8 12 5 Energy crisis - 4 3 5 0 6 4 5 Morality 3 7 5 7 5 6 7 8 Education 1 2 3 1 2 1 1 3 Crime/Drugs - - 2 3 4 2 3 2 Environment - - 1 3 3 1 1 1 Other domestic issues 4 8 8 6 4 6 9 16 22
  • 23. Trendlines In the US National Issue Agenda American Public Policy Issues: 2005 - 2009 “ Economy (Net) Foreign Affairs (Net) Domestic Issues (Net) 76% 49% 48% 47% 47% 44% 44% 42% 42% 40% 40% 39% 36% 35% 40% 32% 37% 34% 28% 33% 33% 31% 31% 25% 24% 29% 29% 29% 28% 28% 26% 20% 25% 19% 18% 15% 15% 14% 14% 13% 9% 9% 7% 6% 11% Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Feb '05 '05 '05 '06 '06 '06 '06 '07 '07 '07 '07 '08 '08 '08 '09 23
  • 24. Budget 2009 - Fielded January 27-29, 2009
  • 25. Overall Views on the Budget Based on what you have seen, read or heard, would you say that the budget, overall, is: 24% 27% 22% Good and you'd symbolically 25% give it two thumbs up 32% 11% 16% 18% 17% 12% Bad and you'd symbolically 13% give it two thumbs down 18% 23% 19% 58% Total (n=1027) BC (n=146) 56% AB (n=95) Neither good nor bad and 65% SK/MB (n=74) you'd symbolically just 63% ONT (n=363) shrug your shoulders 50% QC (n=265) 66% ATL (n=84) 65% 25 Base: N=1.027 MOE +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded Jan 27 – 29, 2009
  • 26. Perceived Personal Impact of the Budget Based on what you have seen, read or heard about the budget, do you think this budget… 23% 22% 26% Will personally help you 24% 26% 15% 27% 7% 8% 6% Will personally hurt you 5% 7% 5% 9% 51% 51% 38% Neither 47% 46% 67% Total (n=1027) 49% BC (n=146) 19% AB (n=95) 19% SK/MB (n=74) 30% ONT (n=363) Don't know/Refused 24% QC (n=265) 21% ATL (n=84) 13% 15% 26 Base: N=1.027 MOE +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded Jan 27 – 29, 2009
  • 27. Tax Cuts – How Would You Spend the Money? One of the things in the budget announced Tuesday is a tax cut. Say that the tax cut worked out to be $1,000 for you and your family, which of the following would you spend it on: Pay down debt and credit cards 49% 26% Putting money into savings Putting money into tax-sheltered vehicles like RRSP's, RESP's, 13% new savings accounts Spend on a big ticket item 7% like a car or appliance Put it towards or buy a house 6% None of the above 12% 27 Base: N=1.027 MOE +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded Jan 27 – 29, 2009
  • 28. Do you agree that … Agree Summary table (strongly/somewhat agree) 1) The Harper Government is committed to 61% doing what it takes to get Canada's economy back on track 2) This budget gives me the confidence to 32% start spending again 3) The size of the deficit announced Tuesday shows that the Harper government doesn’t 53% know what it's doing when it comes to managing spending 4) The opposition coalition would have presented a better budget for these tough 39% economic times than the Harper government has 5) Helps the people most vulnerable to the 51% current economic situation 28 Base: N=1.027 MOE +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded Jan 27 – 29, 2009
  • 29. 2009 Housing Market Outlook Study - Fielded January 6-9, 2009
  • 30. Tracking Views On Housing as an Investment “Do you feel that buying a house or condominium is currently a very good investment, a good investment, not a very good investment, or not a good investment at all?” Very good/Good investment Not a very good/Not a good investment at all 90% 90% 87% 86% 85% 85% 84% 82% 79% 77% 76% 72% 25% 19% 17% 17% 17% 15% 14% 13% 12% 12% 10% 10% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009: 2026 respondents; 2008: 3023 respondents; 2007: 2404 respondents; 2006: 2158 Respondents; 2005: 2,001 Respondents; 2004: 2,000 Respondents; 2002 30 & 2003: 1,500 Respondents; Previous years: 1,200 Respondents
  • 31. The Best Time to Buy A Home Do you think it makes more sense to buy a house now, or wait until next year? 2009 2008 2007 58% 52% 52% 48% 48% 42% Buy now Wait until next year 31 2009: 2026 Respondents; 2008: 3023 Respondents; 2007: 2404 Respondents
  • 32. Views On the Local Economy, Jobs & Personal Finances February 2009
  • 33. Views On the Local Economy - Today “Compared to six months ago, do you feel that your local economy is stronger or weaker today?” Weaker Same Stronger Somewhat weaker Much weaker Much stronger Somewhat stronger Feb ‘09 33% 22% 11% 1 6% 7% 54% Jan ‘09 9% 6% 15% 27% 22% 5% 59% % Weak BC AB SK/ ON QUE ATL MB Feb ‘09 31% 29% 18% 54% 29% 42% 33 Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009
  • 34. Views On the Local Economy – In Six Months “Six months from now, do you feel the economy in your local area will be stronger or weaker?” Weaker Same Stronger Somewhat weaker Much weaker Much stronger Somewhat stronger Feb ‘09 26% 23% 3 2 19% 21% 54% Jan ‘09 31% 25% 6% 2 14% 16% 51% % Strong BC AB SK/MB ON QUE ATL Feb ‘09 21% 27% 15% 24% 12% 24% Jan ‘09 14% 17% 18% 18% 11% 27% NET +7 +10 -3 +5 +1 -3 34 Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009
  • 35. Perceived Job Security “Compared to six months ago, are you more confident about your job security for you, your family, or for others?” Less Confident More Confident 8% Feb ‘09 46% 29% Jan ‘09 54% % More Confident SK/ BC AB ON QUE ATL MB Feb ‘09 8% 13% 9% 9% 6% 7% Jan ‘09 21% 34% 41% 23% 36% 29% NET -13 -21 -32 -14 -30 -22 35 Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009
  • 36. Job Loss Anxiety “Are you, or is anyone in your household worried about losing their job or being laid off?” All Canadians All Canadians 40 35 35 32 (Percentage of respondents) 30 26 25 25 22 21 21 20 20 20 19 19 18 18 18 17 17 17 17 16 16 16 16 15 15 15 14 14 10 5 0 /O 08 Ja 7 M 08 A7 08 Se 5 Fe 8 Fe 09 02 03 Fe 4 90 93 95 97 99 00 01 A8 M5 N 06 9 N 08 Fe 5 A6 Ja 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 '0 '0 ' 19 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 Se Aug ug pr pr ay ay n b b b ct p ov n b ov pt Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009 36
  • 37. Job Loss Anxiety – By Region “Are you, or is anyone in your household worried about losing their job or being laid off?” 21% (+8) 18% 10% (+4) 7% (-2) (-9) 27% 22% (-4) (+7) 37 Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009
  • 38. Your Current Personal Financial Situation “Compared to six months ago, is your personal financial situation …?” Stronger Stable Weaker Feb ’09 17% 50% 34% 26% 50% 22% Jan ‘09 % Stronger SK/ BC AB ON QUE ATL MB Feb ‘09 14% 22% 12% 16% 18% 12% Jan ‘09 25% 32% 20% 22% 29% 28% NET -11 -10 -8 -6 -11 -16 Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009 38
  • 39. Your Personal Financial Situation – In Six Months “Do you feel that six months from now, your financial situation will be stronger or weaker?” Weaker Same Stronger Much stronger Somewhat stronger Somewhat weaker Much weaker Feb ‘09 9% 30% 35% 9% 8% 1 55% Jan ‘09 5% 19% 24% 10% 8% 2 66% % Stronger SK/ BC AB ON QUE ATL MB Feb ‘09 38% 46% 39% 40% 24% 22% Jan ‘09 23% 26% 17% 30% 18% 19% NET +15 +20 +22 +10 +6 +2 39 Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009
  • 40. Comfort In Making Major Household Purchases “Compared to six months ago, are you comfortable in making major household purchases such as a home or a car?” More Comfortable No Change Less Comfortable Feb ’09 10% 41% 48% 21% 18% 60% Jan ‘09 % More Comfortable SK/ BC AB ON QUE ATL MB Feb ‘09 9% 15% 7% 10% 10% 12% Jan ‘09 17% 25% 25% 20% 24% 17% NET -8 -10 -18 -10 -14 -5 Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009 40
  • 41. Confidence In Investing “Compared to six months ago, are you confident to invest for the future, save money for retirement/children's education, etc?” More Confident No Change Less Confident Feb ’09 10% 39% 51% 28% 13% 55% Jan ‘09 % More Confident SK/ BC AB ON QUE ATL MB Feb ‘09 13% 13% 10% 10% 6% 11% Jan ‘09 33% 32% 29% 25% 31% 23% NET -20 -19 -19 -15 -25 -12 41 Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009
  • 42. Time to Invest in the Stock Market? No Yes 31% 65% Feb ‘09 35% 64% Jan ‘09 % Yes SK/M BC AB ON QUE ATL B Feb ‘09 40% 47% 30% 36% 26% 32% 42 Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009
  • 43. Climate Change & The Economy - Fielded February 17 – 23, 2009
  • 44. Desired Timing of Action on Climate Change To what extent do you agree with the following statement: “Serious action on climate change should wait until the recession is behind us.” 13% 12% 20% Strongly agree 8% 14% 10% 12% 32% 27% 37% Somewhat agree 36% 33% 32% 21% 34% 43% % Disagree: 32% Somewhat disagree •Total: 55% 34% 32% •BC: 61% 32% Total (n=1003) •AB: 43% 39% BC (n=132) •SK/MB: 56% 21% AB (n=101) 18% SK/MB (n=69) •ONT: 52% 11% ONT (n=375) •QC: 57% Strongly disagree 21% QC (n=238) 20% •ATL: 67% ATL (n=88) 25% 28% 44 Base N=1,003 Margin of Error +1 – 3.1 percentage points Fielded Fed 17 to 23, 2009
  • 45. Climate Change Vs. Higher Deficits To what extent do you agree with the following statement: “Canada should take serious action on climate change right now, even it if means higher deficits.” 19% 16% % Agree: 11% Strongly agree 25% •Total: 57% 18% •BC: 53% 21% 30% •AB: 42% 37% •SK/MB: 52% 36% •ONT: 55% 31% Somewhat agree 27% •QC: 65% 37% •ATL: 68% 44% 38% 31% 29% 38% Somewhat disagree 34% 33% 29% Total (n=1003) 24% BC (n=132) 12% AB (n=101) 18% SK/MB (n=69) 20% ONT (n=375) Strongly disagree 15% QC (n=238) 12% ATL (n=88) 6% 8% 45 Base N=1,003 Margin of Error +1 – 3.1 percentage points Fielded Fed 17 to 23, 2009
  • 46. Climate Change Vs. Jobs To what extent do you agree with the following statement: “It is more important for the Canadian government to focus on jobs than climate change at the moment.” 30% 34% % Agree: 33% Strongly agree 27% •Total: 71% 32% •BC: 75% 26% 16% •AB: 81% 42% •SK/MB: 66% 41% •ONT: 75% 48% Somewhat agree 39% •QC: 66% 42% •ATL: 58% 40% 42% 21% 16% 13% Somewhat disagree 24% 19% 25% Total (n=1003) 33% BC (n=132) 8% AB (n=101) 9% SK/MB (n=69) 7% ONT (n=375) Strongly disagree 10% QC (n=238) 6% ATL (n=88) 9% 9% 46 Base N=1,003 Margin of Error +1 – 3.1 percentage points Fielded Fed 17 to 23, 2009
  • 47. Economic Stimulus & the Environment To what extent do you agree with the following statement: “The Canadian government should only adopt economic stimulus measures that are environmentally sustainable.” 23% 21% % Agree: 18% Strongly agree 26% •Total: 73% 19% •BC: 64% 30% 32% •AB: 62% 49% •SK/MB: 67% 44% •ONT: 72% 44% Somewhat agree 41% •QC: 81% 53% •ATL: 83% 51% 51% 22% 27% 29% Somewhat disagree 32% 22% 14% Total (n=1003) 10% BC (n=132) 6% AB (n=101) 8% SK/MB (n=69) 9% ONT (n=375) Strongly disagree 1% QC (n=238) 6% ATL (n=88) 5% 7% 47 Base N=1,003 Margin of Error +1 – 3.1 percentage points Fielded Fed 17 to 23, 2009
  • 48. Canadian Federal Politics - Fielded Feb 24 – March 5, 2009
  • 49. Federal Voting Intention Thinking of how you feel right now, if a FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties’ candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support 37% The Conservative Party 70% 33% The Liberals 15% 12% The New Democratic Party 10% 10% The Bloc Quebecois n/a 8% The Green party 6% National (N=2,002) Alberta (N=182) 49 Base: Decided voters – Leaners included – N=1,735 MOE +/- 2.4 percentage points
  • 50. Tracking Federal Voting Intentions Federal Party Support Conservative Liberal October 14, 2008 37.65% 26.26% – Election Results = 143 seats = 77 seats December 2 – 3, 2008 46% 23% January 6 – 8, 2009 39% 28% February 3 – 5, 2009 37% 31% February 24 – March 5 37% 33% 50
  • 51. From the Perspective of Employees
  • 52. Concern & Absent Communications • The Ipsos Better Workplace Syndicated Study was fielded in January 2009. A sample of 1,100 employees across Canada told us about their workplace, job security, career goals and overall wellness at work. • Key findings of the study include: – 24% said their employer has or had plans to lay off staff – 50% had received no communications from their employer about the issue of job security / layoffs etc – 45% who did receive some communication said that it was not effective • Effective communication is a cornerstone of employee loyalty and engagement. For many organizations, these findings do not bode well for their efforts to attract and retain the best, brightest and most effective staff. 52
  • 53. Some Thoughts & Observations
  • 54. Some Thoughts & Observations Canadians are sending very mixed messages … but there are some keys for business communicators to remember: • Participation, engagement & building community are requirements for success in the new media ecosystem. These requirements have not changed and will only grow in importance. • Canadians believe that corporations have too much influence and that greater transparency and regulation should be imposed on their activities. It is likely that these views have or will grow stronger and become greater challenges to corporate communications. • As the ‘hewers of wood’ and suppliers of energy to the world, global and US public opinion suggests that our economic circumstances will continue to deteriorate. But Canada has what the world wants and needs. Our recovery be among the most rapid. 54
  • 55. Some Thoughts & Observations • Many Canadians expect improvement in their local economy and personal financial situations, but nonetheless have told us that they intend to keep their wallets closed. • There are causes for optimism - relatively low job anxiety, positive views on homes being good investments, a majority (55% in January) believing that Canada is on the right track - however the ‘paradox of thrift’ remains strongly in place. • Emotion and psychology are critical determinants. Positive leadership and effective messages can make a significant difference to the economic behavior of Canadian businesses and citizens. There is clearly room for improvement in this regard. • The months ahead are certain to be difficult. Nonetheless a steadfast commitment to effective communication (inform, educate, advocate) and relationship building is required to build / reinforce the foundation for the turnaround when it comes. 55
  • 56. Closing With Some Irreverent Data for Communicators
  • 57. Most Trusted Professions Extremely Trustworthy (6, 7) Trustworthy (5, 6, 7) 89% 94% Firefighters 77% 87% Nurses 57% 85% Doctors 49% 79% Teachers 45% 73% The Police 25% 52% Accountants 16% 42% Plumbers 24% 40% Pollsters 18% 40% Chiropractors 17% 40% Financial Advisors 12% 36% TV and Radio Personalities 11% 29 Lawyers 7% 27% The Press 7% 21% CEOs 10% Car Salespeople 9% National Politicians 57
  • 58. From Canadian Teens - Level of Coolness “How cool is your [mom/dad] on a scale of one to ten?” 58% Cool 36% 35% In between 40% 6% Uncool 9% Mom Dad 1% Don’t know 15% 58 Ipsos Reid Canadian Teens Panel May / June 2004
  • 59. From Canadian Teens - Performance on Sex Ed “How did you find your [mom’s/dad’s] attempts to explain sex to you?” 22% Excellent 7% 32% Pretty good 16% 20% Satisfactory 15% 7% Could have done better 8% 2% Mom Hopeless Dad 6% 16% Has not explained sex to me at all 34% 59 Ipsos Reid Canadian Teens Panel May / June 2004
  • 60. The Question “Why?” “How do you answer your child aged 2 to 5 when he/she asks “Why?” about something you don’t know the answer to?” I tell him/her I don't know 14% I tell him/her I don't know and will try to 12% find the answer on my own I tell him/her I don't know and we try to 64% find the answer together I make up an answer 4% I know the answer to everything 3% 60 Base: Canadian adults N=1,09 Margin of error: 3.0 percentage points March 2007
  • 61. www.ipsos.ca Tim Moro Jamie Duncan Senior Vice President Associate Vice President Tim.Moro@ipsos.com Jamie.Duncan@ipsos.com 403-294-7379 403-294-7385