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Defrag 2012




        The Arab Spring of Software:
          Developers are the New
                Kingmakers



Donnie Berkholz                                Lauren Cooney
Analyst, Redmonk        Sr. Director, Software Strategy, Cisco
dberkholz@redmonk.com              lauren.cooney@cisco.com
Twitter: @dberkholz                         Twitter: @lcooney
The First Kingmaker




  Richard Neville, 16th Earl of Warwick
                                          Photo courtesy Wikia
“A „platform‟ is a system that can be
programmed and therefore customized
by outside developers – users - and in
that way, adapted to countless needs
and niches that the platform’s original
developers could not have possibly
contemplated, much less had time to
accommodate…”


                   Marc Andreessen, 2007
Open Source:
The DeFacto Standard
Cloud
Shadow IT &
The Consumerization of IT




                            Photo Courtesy NCJ
Code Sharing & Reuse
Commonalities:
               Open Building Blocks
                        &
               Technology Availability
                                                           How Developers Became Kingmakers
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.                                      Cisco Confidential   8
Affecting The Vendor Landscape

                  What IT Decision
                  Makers THINK is
                    Being Used




What Developers                      What is Actually
  Want to Use                         Being Used
The Goldfish is Really the Shark
“We have a decision-by-experiment
 culture. Instead of declaring, „here is the
 future functionality we will have in 24
 months and 36 months‟ and doggedly
 building to that, we are now running
 experiments in hours and days. If
 something works, we double-down on
 it. If it doesn’t, we discard and move
 on.”

                        Brad Smith, CEO, Intuit
                                       2012
“How Can I Configure a
            Router, A Firewall, A Load
              Balancer, Server &
            Storage through APIs?””

© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.   Cisco Confidential   12
So Yes, The World is Flat




  Make it Work for You
IT’S AN ARAB SPRING


IT’S ALL ABOUT THE BUILDING BLOCKS.
      WE NEED TO CREATE THEM.



AND THAT’S A MUST FOR OUR
        SURVIVAL.
A Puzzling Pattern in VC Deals
A Brave New World
He Who Has the Best DX Wins




         ProgrammableWeb, February 2012
Funnels: Not Just for Sales
It's All About Barriers to Entry
The Four Stages
      of
   Software
  Production
STAGE 1


“The money is in the
      hardware,
  not the software”
STAGE 2
“Actually, the money is in
     the software”
STAGE 2.5
“Maybe the money is in
  the integration?”
STAGE 3

“The money is not in the
          software,
 but it is differentiating”
STAGE 4

“Software is not even
   differentiating,
the value is the data”
Who is Leading in Data?
Who is Leading in Inner-Sourcing?
Who is Leading in
Default to Open?
Who is Leading in Services?
A Glimpse of the Future
   GitHub rules ALM
   Everyone writes to a PaaS
   Open building blocks will win
   Default to open, else inner-sourced
   Developers take over Ops and Data

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The Arab Spring of Software: Developers are the New Kingmakers

  • 1. Defrag 2012 The Arab Spring of Software: Developers are the New Kingmakers Donnie Berkholz Lauren Cooney Analyst, Redmonk Sr. Director, Software Strategy, Cisco dberkholz@redmonk.com lauren.cooney@cisco.com Twitter: @dberkholz Twitter: @lcooney
  • 2. The First Kingmaker Richard Neville, 16th Earl of Warwick Photo courtesy Wikia
  • 3. “A „platform‟ is a system that can be programmed and therefore customized by outside developers – users - and in that way, adapted to countless needs and niches that the platform’s original developers could not have possibly contemplated, much less had time to accommodate…” Marc Andreessen, 2007
  • 6. Shadow IT & The Consumerization of IT Photo Courtesy NCJ
  • 8. Commonalities: Open Building Blocks & Technology Availability How Developers Became Kingmakers © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 8
  • 9. Affecting The Vendor Landscape What IT Decision Makers THINK is Being Used What Developers What is Actually Want to Use Being Used
  • 10. The Goldfish is Really the Shark
  • 11. “We have a decision-by-experiment culture. Instead of declaring, „here is the future functionality we will have in 24 months and 36 months‟ and doggedly building to that, we are now running experiments in hours and days. If something works, we double-down on it. If it doesn’t, we discard and move on.” Brad Smith, CEO, Intuit 2012
  • 12. “How Can I Configure a Router, A Firewall, A Load Balancer, Server & Storage through APIs?”” © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 12
  • 13. So Yes, The World is Flat Make it Work for You
  • 14. IT’S AN ARAB SPRING IT’S ALL ABOUT THE BUILDING BLOCKS. WE NEED TO CREATE THEM. AND THAT’S A MUST FOR OUR SURVIVAL.
  • 15. A Puzzling Pattern in VC Deals
  • 16. A Brave New World
  • 17. He Who Has the Best DX Wins ProgrammableWeb, February 2012
  • 18. Funnels: Not Just for Sales
  • 19. It's All About Barriers to Entry
  • 20. The Four Stages of Software Production
  • 21. STAGE 1 “The money is in the hardware, not the software”
  • 22. STAGE 2 “Actually, the money is in the software”
  • 23. STAGE 2.5 “Maybe the money is in the integration?”
  • 24. STAGE 3 “The money is not in the software, but it is differentiating”
  • 25. STAGE 4 “Software is not even differentiating, the value is the data”
  • 26. Who is Leading in Data?
  • 27. Who is Leading in Inner-Sourcing?
  • 28. Who is Leading in Default to Open?
  • 29. Who is Leading in Services?
  • 30. A Glimpse of the Future  GitHub rules ALM  Everyone writes to a PaaS  Open building blocks will win  Default to open, else inner-sourced  Developers take over Ops and Data

Editor's Notes

  1. The network effect & building blocks that enable platform to have the network effect w/in the ecosystemOpen interfaces – pluggable, interoperable & working well x-vendorGitHub, Services, APIs – all provide foundation for this new ecosystemThis is what vendors need to embrace.
  2. It’s Not An Evolution, It’s A Transformation Democratization & Flattening of IT (Developers Choose, Not Their Managers, Not the CIO)More Developers than ever before are empowered to spend in the $10K to $50K price-range.*Cross Platform Tooling Wins, with Choice of Languages, Tools, Integration into Existing Systems Required.Dev/Ops, No-Ops, Continuous Dev, Test, Deploy at Speed Business versus Systems move.
  3. SO WHAT MATTERSOnly 55% of developers last year tried half of the software they downloaded – the rest tried even less. In order to get your software or platform considered for users to build services on top of it – there are few musts, all tied to consistent and amazing user experience from beginning to endDownload & Documentation -Install (product & requirements)Test bed/sandbox/ttroubleshooting tools included in the packageDeployMust be FreeDo *not* underestimate the install experience. Majority of software users stop trying to use a product if it can’t/won’t install properly or does not have baseline requirements most developers use.