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Gresham "Group 150" - September 2011

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ASX Resource - Gresham Group 150

ASX Resource - Gresham Group 150

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  • 1. SEPTEMBER 2011 Gresham Group 150 September 2011 Darren Martin Gresham Advisory Partners dmartin@gresham.com.au +61 8 9486 7077 +61 412 144 719ASX RESOURCES - GROUP 150We are pleased to present the September edition (in English!!) of ‘Gresham Group 150’, a ranking of the top 150ASX listed resources companies (excluding oil and gas), by market capitalisation.The continuing global uncertainty ensured the returns for August followed the pattern of the past six months.August recorded a decline in the value of the Gresham Group 150, with the cumulative market value at theend of the month being $510 billion, down 5.3%. This is equivalent to the value of the Gresham Group 150approximately 12 months ago. Entry into the Group 150 was $111.2 million, down from $119 million last month.The gold companies appear to be the main beneficiaries of the volatile markets conditions, but even their solidperformances don’t appear to have kept pace with the escalating gold price.The ASX/S&P 200 Resources Index decreased 5.2% for the month, while both the ASX All Ordinaries and ASX/S&P 200 Index both decreased 2.9%.While the Australian economy is partially cushioned by the commodity influence, volatility in the global economyis likely to remain high until positive steps are undertaken by a number of global economies to implement alasting solution. Some commentators are suggesting the global stock and bond markets are reminiscent of thefinancial crisis of late 2008, and with yields on Greek 2-year government bonds pushing closer to 50% by theday, this is understandable.Subject to the circumstance, we all talk about a “30% takeover premium” being required in a control transaction.In this edition we provide the results of our study of takeover premiums offered in the past 6 years. The 2011YTDaverage premium for announced transactions in the resources sector has been 33%. This has come down fromlevels witnessed in 2009 and 2010 which were 37% and 40% respectively. The analysis also supports the viewthat premiums paid in cash transactions are higher given the target shareholders exit the company and don’treceive the opportunity to participate in the enlarged entity. So far in 2011, the average scrip premium offeredhas been 29% versus cash premiums averaging 36%. It appears the old adage “that if you say it enough, it mustbe true” holds, when the takeover premium of “around 30%” is offered.Gresham Advisory Partners Limited Gresham Advisory Partners is a leading Australian mergers and acquisitions/corporate advisoryEdition 18 business and one of Australia’s largest and highest ranking independent corporate advisors. 1
  • 2. Group 150 Top 150 asX LisTed resource companies - auGusT By Market Capitalisation Mkt Cap (A$m) % Mkt Cap (A$m) % Aug Jul Company 31-Aug-11 31-Jul-11 Change Aug Jul Company 31-Aug-11 31-Jul-11 Change 1 1 BHP Billiton Ltd. (ASX:BHP) $211,587.9 $220,502.2 (4.0%) 51 51 Alkane Resources Limited (ASX:ALK) $517.9 $536.7 (3.5%) 2 2 Rio Tinto Ltd. (ASX:RIO) $138,409.4 $153,603.4 (9.9%) 52 48 Gryphon Minerals Ltd. (ASX:GRY) $517.4 $560.9 (7.8%) 3 3 Newcrest Mining Ltd. (ASX:NCM) $30,791.3 $30,255.8 1.8% 53 45 Northern Iron Limited (ASX:NFE) $487.3 $621.8 (21.6%) 4 4 Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (ASX:FMG) $18,836.7 $19,646.2 (4.1%) 54 52 Guildford Coal Limited (ASX:GUF) $480.1 $530.2 (9.4%) 5 5 Coal & Allied Industries Ltd. (ASX:CNA) $10,667.2 $8,877.5 20.2% 55 63 Integra Mining Ltd. (ASX:IGR) $472.4 $400.4 18.0% 6 6 Iluka Resources Ltd. (ASX:ILU) $6,830.7 $7,378.9 (7.4%) 56 72 Silver Lake Resources Limited (ASX:SLR) $465.1 $363.1 28.1% 7 8 MacArthur Coal Ltd. (ASX:MCC) $4,800.2 $4,697.5 2.2% 57 62 Ramelius Resources Ltd. (ASX:RMS) $445.1 $401.3 10.9% 8 7 Alumina Ltd. (ASX:AWC) $4,294.7 $5,319.6 (19.3%) 58 58 Cockatoo Coal Limited (ASX:COK) $431.9 $452.2 (4.5%) 9 9 New Hope Corp. Ltd. (ASX:NHC) $4,217.6 $4,458.3 (5.4%) 59 60 Kagara Ltd (ASX:KZL) $430.8 $437.9 (1.6%) 10 10 OZ Minerals Limited (ASX:OZL) $3,785.1 $4,414.1 (14.3%) 60 61 Gold One International Limited (ASX:GDO) $428.8 $412.6 3.9% 11 12 Atlas Iron Limited (ASX:AGO) $3,217.7 $3,347.5 (3.9%) 61 67 Summit Resources Ltd. (ASX:SMM) $413.1 $381.5 8.3% 12 11 Lynas Corporation Limited (ASX:LYC) $3,102.1 $3,684.3 (15.8%) 62 55 Ampella Mining Limited (ASX:AMX) $406.9 $494.0 (17.6%) 13 13 Whitehaven Coal Limited (ASX:WHC) $2,961.9 $3,253.6 (9.0%) 63 57 OM Holdings Limited (ASX:OMH) $406.7 $464.4 (12.4%) 14 14 Aquila Resources Ltd. (ASX:AQA) $2,396.0 $2,508.3 (4.5%) 64 54 Brockman Resources Limited (ASX:BRM) $404.9 $501.0 (19.2%) 15 16 Aston Resources Limited (ASX:AZT) $2,384.8 $2,208.9 8.0% 65 97 FerrAus Ltd. (ASX:FRS) $394.6 $249.6 58.1% 16 15 PanAust Limited (ASX:PNA) $2,161.7 $2,434.9 (11.2%) 66 73 Troy Resources NL (ASX:TRY) $393.4 $356.4 10.4% 17 19 Extract Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXT) $2,024.3 $1,964.1 3.1% 67 66 Kingsrose Mining Limited (ASX:KRM) $387.0 $382.3 1.2% 18 20 Mount Gibson Iron Ltd. (ASX:MGX) $1,802.5 $1,948.6 (7.5%) 68 56 Aditya Birla Minerals Limited (ASX:ABY) $380.7 $466.9 (18.5%) 19 18 Aquarius Platinum Ltd. (ASX:AQP) $1,796.0 $1,988.8 (9.7%) 69 65 Indophil Resources NL (ASX:IRN) $363.3 $388.2 (6.4%) 20 21 Gloucester Coal Ltd. (ASX:GCL) $1,795.7 $1,887.0 (4.8%) 70 64 Bougainville Copper Ltd. (ASX:BOC) $363.0 $393.0 (7.7%) 21 17 Paladin Energy, Ltd. (ASX:PDN) $1,632.4 $2,036.3 (19.8%) 71 71 Panoramic Resources Ltd. (ASX:PAN) $361.4 $368.6 (1.9%) 22 25 Perseus Mining Ltd. (ASX:PRU) $1,532.4 $1,319.6 16.1% 72 59 Metminco Limited. (ASX:MNC) $358.3 $438.8 (18.3%) 23 24 Medusa Mining Limited (ASX:MML) $1,515.3 $1,323.3 14.5% 73 85 Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (ASX:SAR) $356.8 $295.4 20.8% 24 22 Sundance Resources Ltd. (ASX:SDL) $1,371.6 $1,508.1 (9.0%) 74 83 Noble Mineral Resources Ltd. (ASX:NMG) $324.5 $299.2 8.5% 25 28 Regis Resources Limited (ASX:RRL) $1,269.5 $1,176.5 7.9% 75 79 Metals X Limited (ASX:MLX) $323.8 $326.7 (0.9%) 26 26 Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (ASX:KCN) $1,235.1 $1,201.8 2.8% 76 84 Equatorial Resources Limited (ASX:EQX) $322.2 $295.8 8.9% 27 23 Zimplats Holdings Ltd. (ASX:ZIM) $1,184.0 $1,346.5 (12.1%) 77 75 Hunnu Coal Limited (ASX:HUN) $318.7 $339.6 (6.2%) 28 27 Independence Group NL (ASX:IGO) $1,109.9 $1,187.0 (6.5%) 78 69 Perilya Ltd. (ASX:PEM) $312.6 $375.6 (16.8%) 29 29 Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR) $1,101.9 $1,165.6 (5.5%) 79 70 Cape Lambert Resources Limited (ASX:CFE) $305.9 $369.6 (17.2%) 30 31 Western Areas NL (ASX:WSA) $1,056.8 $1,055.0 0.2% 80 98 WPG Resources Ltd (ASX:WPG) $299.8 $246.5 21.6% 31 38 Minara Resources Ltd. (ASX:MRE) $1,023.2 $783.5 30.6% 81 80 Adamus Resources Ltd. (ASX:ADU) $292.9 $315.5 (7.1%) 32 32 Coalspur Mines Limited (ASX:CPL) $988.5 $959.5 3.0% 82 78 Tiger Resources Ltd. (ASX:TGS) $291.9 $332.2 (12.1%) 33 37 CGA Mining Limited (ASX:CGX) $870.4 $820.2 6.1% 83 82 Aspire Mining Limited (ASX:AKM) $286.5 $299.7 (4.4%) 34 34 Mirabela Nickel Ltd. (ASX:MBN) $816.4 $934.4 (12.6%) 84 101 Focus Minerals Limited (ASX:FML) $284.0 $234.0 21.4% 35 35 Intrepid Mines Limited (ASX:IAU) $799.1 $929.7 (14.0%) 85 74 Rex Minerals Limited. (ASX:RXM) $280.4 $350.3 (20.0%) 36 36 Energy Resources of Australia Ltd. (ASX:ERA) $768.7 $875.5 (12.2%) 86 88 Catalpa Resources Limited (ASX:CAH) $276.2 $276.9 (0.3%) 37 44 Resolute Mining Ltd. (ASX:RSG) $760.2 $629.0 20.9% 87 87 Conquest Mining Limited (ASX:CQT) $271.2 $291.6 (7.0%) 38 39 Gindalbie Metals Ltd. (ASX:GBG) $722.1 $739.1 (2.3%) 88 77 Murchison Metals Limited (ASX:MMX) $271.2 $338.9 (20.0%) 39 47 ST Barbara Ltd. (ASX:SBM) $674.0 $595.9 13.1% 89 90 Tanami Gold NL (ASX:TAM) $270.1 $266.2 1.5% 40 30 Ivanhoe Australia Limited (ASX:IVA) $665.8 $1,071.9 (37.9%) 90 93 Straits Resources Limited (ASX:SRQ) $266.3 $256.6 3.8% 41 40 Bathurst Resources Ltd (ASX:BTU) $657.3 $719.3 (8.6%) 91 76 Mineral Deposits Ltd. (ASX:MDL) $264.3 $339.1 (22.0%) 42 41 Jupiter Mines Ltd. (ASX:JMS) $647.9 $718.1 (9.8%) 92 112 Northern Energy Corporation Ltd (ASX:NEC) $261.3 $196.0 33.3% 43 42 White Energy Company Limited (ASX:WEC) $629.0 $676.5 (7.0%) 93 113 Red 5 Ltd. (ASX:RED) $256.7 $192.6 33.3% 44 43 Discovery Metals Ltd. (ASX:DML) $605.4 $636.0 (4.8%) 94 86 Gujarat NRE Coking Coal Limited (ASX:GNM) $247.7 $292.3 (15.3%) 45 46 Grange Resources Limited (ASX:GRR) $594.1 $605.6 (1.9%) 95 92 BC Iron Limited (ASX:BCI) $246.7 $264.3 (6.7%) 46 49 Beadell Resources Ltd (ASX:BDR) $562.5 $555.9 1.2% 96 94 Carabella Resources Limited (ASX:CLR) $245.4 $255.3 (3.9%) 47 50 CuDeco Ltd. (ASX:CDU) $542.5 $537.4 0.9% 97 104 Galaxy Resources (ASX:GXY) $242.5 $219.9 10.3% 48 68 Sphere Minerals Limited (ASX:SPH) $540.1 $381.3 41.7% 98 89 Arafura Resources Limited (ASX:ARU) $233.7 $270.5 (13.6%) 49 53 Kangaroo Resources Limited (ASX:KRL) $532.3 $515.2 3.3% 99 96 Greenland Minerals and Energy Ltd (ASX:GGG) $231.9 $250.3 (7.4%) 50 33 Bandanna Energy Limited (ASX:BND) $521.7 $935.8 (44.3%) 100 95 Flinders Mines Limited. (ASX:FMS) $227.6 $254.9 (10.7%)Includes ASX Resource companies excluding oil and gas 2
  • 3. SEPTEMBER 2011 Mkt Cap (A$m) % Mkt Cap (A$m) % Aug Jul Company 31-Aug-11 31-Jul-11 Change Aug Jul Company 31-Aug-11 31-Jul-11 Change 101 105 Marengo Mining Limited (ASX:MGO) $225.5 $218.9 3.0% 126 146 ABM Resources NL (ASX:ABU) $146.7 $125.4 17.0% 102 102 Exco Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXS) $224.0 $231.8 (3.3%) 127 126 YTC Resources Limited (ASX:YTC) $146.7 $161.6 (9.2%) 103 91 Moly Mines Ltd. (ASX:MOL) $219.4 $265.6 (17.4%) 128 123 Metrocoal Ltd. (ASX:MTE) $146.7 $169.7 (13.5%) 104 99 Cokal Limited (ASX:CKA) $217.6 $239.2 (9.0%) 129 122 Altona Mining Limited (ASX:AOH) $145.2 $171.2 (15.2%) 105 109 Hillgrove Resources Ltd. (ASX:HGO) $210.3 $206.4 1.9% 130 128 Azumah Resources Ltd (ASX:AZM) $142.2 $157.7 (9.8%) 106 103 Iron Ore Holdings Limited (ASX:IOH) $205.9 $222.6 (7.5%) 131 127 African Energy Resources Limited (ASX:AFR) $142.0 $161.6 (12.1%) 107 107 South Boulder Mines Ltd. (ASX:STB) $203.9 $216.9 (6.0%) 132 125 Cerro Resources NL (ASX:CJO) $140.1 $165.2 (15.2%) 108 134 Northern Star Resources Ltd. (ASX:NST) $198.1 $140.4 41.1% 133 138 Crusader Resources Limited (ASX:CAS) $138.2 $134.3 2.9% 109 115 Atlantic Ltd (ASX:ATI) $193.8 $187.0 3.6% 134 132 Alcyone Resources Ltd (ASX:AYN) $138.2 $144.8 (4.5%) 110 116 Kula Gold Limited (ASX:KGD) $191.4 $180.2 6.2% 135 169 Azimuth Resources Limited (ASX:AZH) $136.4 $97.6 39.8% 111 106 Gold Road Resources Limited (ASX:GOR) $190.3 $217.2 (12.4%) 136 135 Indo Mines Limited (ASX:IDO) $128.7 $137.9 (6.7%) 112 118 Astron Ltd. (ASX:ATR) $186.6 $178.2 4.7% 137 131 Sylvania Resources Ltd. (ASX:SLP) $128.0 $146.1 (12.4%) 113 100 Nucoal Resources NL (ASX:NCR) $181.1 $236.1 (23.3%) 138 151 Reed Resources Ltd. (ASX:RDR) $124.4 $117.8 5.6% 114 114 Deep Yellow Ltd. (ASX:DYL) $180.6 $191.7 (5.8%) 139 143 Robust Resources Limited (ASX:ROL) $122.3 $129.1 (5.3%) 115 110 Highlands Pacific Limited (ASX:HIG) $178.4 $205.8 (13.3%) 140 130 Peninsula Energy Limited (ASX:PEN) $121.1 $151.2 (19.9%) 116 117 Mincor Resources NL (ASX:MCR) $176.2 $178.8 (1.4%) 141 156 Tribune Resources Limited (ASX:TBR) $120.7 $108.7 11.1% 117 111 Ausgold Limited (ASX:AUC) $172.7 $201.4 (14.3%) 142 142 Industrial Minerals Corporation Ltd. (ASX:IDM) $120.4 $130.8 (8.0%) 118 108 Orocobre Limited (ASX:ORE) $171.3 $214.4 (20.1%) 143 162 Dragon Mining Limited (ASX:DRA) $119.5 $103.0 16.1% 119 - Tigers Realm Coal Limited (ASX:TIG) $163.8 - - 144 139 Finders Resources Limited (ASX:FND) $118.8 $133.9 (11.3%) 120 136 Norton Gold Fields Limited (ASX:NGF) $160.6 $137.1 17.1% 145 137 Northern Minerals Limited (ASX:NTU) $118.1 $135.4 (12.8%) 121 120 Cobar Consolidated Resources Ltd (ASX:CCU) $160.0 $171.7 (6.8%) 146 144 IMX Resources Ltd. (ASX:IXR) $114.2 $128.7 (11.2%) 122 133 Blackgold International Hold. Ltd (ASX:BGG) $157.5 $144.0 9.4% 147 129 Stanmore Coal Limited (ASX:SMR) $113.8 $153.4 (25.8%) 123 119 Resource Generation Limited (ASX:RES) $154.7 $176.1 (12.2%) 148 145 Continental Coal Limited (ASX:CCC) $113.7 $126.8 (10.4%) 124 121 NKWE Platinum Ltd. (ASX:NKP) $152.5 $171.2 (10.9%) 149 153 Iron Road Limited (ASX:IRD) $112.1 $111.5 0.5% 125 124 African Iron Limited (ASX:AKI) $151.0 $165.4 (8.7%) 150 140 Resource and Investment NL (ASX:RNI) $111.2 $132.3 (15.9%)Source: Capital IQnew enTranTs - auGusT eXiTs - auGusT119 Tigers Realm Coal Limited (ASX:TIG) Elemental Minerals Limited (ASX:ELM)135 Azimuth Resources Limited (ASX:AZH) Territory Resources Limited (ASX:TTY)138 Reed Resources Ltd. (ASX:RDR) Australasian Resources Ltd (ASX:ARH)141 Tribune Resources Limited (ASX:TBR) Mungana Goldmines Ltd (ASX:MUX)143 Dragon Mining Limited (ASX:DRA) Platinum Australia Limited (ASX:PLA)149 Iron Road Limited (ASX:IRD) Centrex Metals Limited (ASX:CXM)Based on market capitalisation as at 31 August vs 31 JulyGroup 150 Leaders and LaGGers - markeT capiTaLisaTion performance - auGusT Leaders Laggers * Included material placement, acquisition and/or option conversion during month 3
  • 4. Group 150Group 150 markeT capiTaLisaTion +9.2% 509.8 +41.7% Market Valuation (A$b) - Group 150asX indeX performance - auGusT Group 150 mkT cap - By commodiTymerGer & acquisiTions - announced in auGusT Percent Premium - Premium - Date Value Consideration Target Acquirer Sought 1 Day Prior 1 Month Prior Announced (A$m) Offered (%) (%) (%)29-Aug-2011 Northern Energy Corporation Ltd (ASX:NEC) Arkdale Pty. Ltd. 50.1 19 29.0 33.3 Cash26-Aug-2011 Hillgrove Antimony-Gold Project Ancoa NL 40.0 100 - - Combinations26-Aug-2011 Zari Exploration Limited Peak Resources Limited (ASX:PEK) 16.7 100 - - Combinations24-Aug-2011 Minara Resources Ltd. (ASX:MRE) Glencore Investment Pty Ltd. 270.2 27 35.9 23.4 Cash23-Aug-2011 Blackwood Coal Pty Ltd. Convergent Minerals Limited (ASX:CVG) 17.2 100 - - Cash; Equity22-Aug-2011 Southern Iron & Central Iron & Coober Pedy Res OneSteel Limited (ASX:OST) 346.0 100 - - Cash21-Aug-2011 Adamus Resources Ltd. (ASX:ADU) Endeavour Mining Corporation (TSX:EDV) 359.7 100 4.0 -4.8 Common Equity18-Aug-2011 Cape Lambert - Sappes Gold Project Glory Resources Limited (ASX:GLY) 45.9 100 - - Combinations15-Aug-2011 Greenland Minerals and Energy (Trading) A/S Greenland Minerals and Energy Ltd (ASX:GGG) 43.1 39 - - Combinations6-Aug-2011 Coal & Allied Industries Ltd. (ASX:CNA) Rio Tinto / Mitsubishi Development Pty., Ltd. 1,525.0 14 37.4 21.3 Cash4-Aug-2011 Cazaly - Parker Range Iron Ore Project - 95.0 100 - - Cash Source: Capital IQ4 Announced Australian Resources (excluding oil and gas) Mergers and Acquisitions >A$10m
  • 5. SEPTEMBER 2011resources secTor Takeover premiums - pasT 6 yearsCorporate finance theory argues that shares traded on public exchanges (ie ASX) are usually for minorityinterests and the resultant passive shareholding provides limited influence over the company’s decisionmaking process, other than directing questions at directors during the AGM.The argument is extended that in a takeover scenario, the acquirer is seeking 100% control to influence thebusiness and operations of the target and for that right the acquirer should pay a premium. Subject to thecircumstance, industry participants all talk about a “30% takeover premium” being required to be offeredto target shareholders in a control transaction.We have undertaken a review of takeover premiums offered since 2005, involving announced merger andacquisition transactions with a value greater than $10 million in the mining and metals industry.The average premium offered for transactions announced so far in 2011 has been 33% to the closing priceon the day prior to announcement. This average has come down from levels recorded in 2009 and 2010which were 37% and 40% respectively, to levels consistently witnessed in 2005 through 2007. Takeover Premiums Announced Transactions - Since 2005Source: Capital IQ 5
  • 6. Group 150resources secTor Takeover premiums - pasT 6 yearsThe analysis also supports the view that premiums paid for takeovers involving cash as consideration arehigher given the target shareholders exit the company and don’t receive the opportunity to participate inthe enlarged entity.In each of the years analysed, the average premium offered to shareholders involving cash considerationhas been above transactions offering scrip consideration. To date in 2011, the average scrip premiumoffered has been 29% versus cash premiums averaging 36% to the closing price on the day prior toannouncement .It appears the old adage “that if you say it enough, it must be true” holds, when the takeover premium of“around 30%” is offered. Cash vs Scrip Takeover Premiums Announced Transactions - Since 2005Source: Capital IQ6
  • 7. SEPTEMBER 2011Base meTaLs - secTor performance Share Price Performance - August 2011 Copper Nickel ZincShare Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 31 December 2011Share Price Performance 7
  • 8. Group 150coaL - secTor performance Share Price Performance - July 2011Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 31 December 2011Share Price Performance8
  • 9. SEPTEMBER 2011diversified - secTor performance indusTriaL mineraLs - secTor performance Share Price Performance - July 2011Share Price Performance Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011Share Price Performance Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 31 December 2011Share Price Performance Share Price Performance 9
  • 10. Group 150GoLd - secTor performance Share Price Performance - July 2011Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 31 December 2011Share Price Performance10
  • 11. SEPTEMBER 2011iron ore - secTor performance Share Price Performance - July 2011Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 31 December 2011Share Price Performance 11
  • 12. Group 150pLaTinum - secTor performance uranium - secTor performance Share Price Performance - July 2011Share Price Performance Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011Share Price Performance Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 31 December 2011Share Price Performance Share Price Performance12
  • 13. SEPTEMBER 2011consensus commodiTy price forecasTs - auGusTGold (US$/oz) Silver (US$/OZ) $2,500 $60 $1,826 $41.56 $2,000 $50 $1,551 $1,446 $36.75 $1,340 $1,259 $40 $30.00 $1,500 $27.50 $27.74 $30 $1,000 $20 $500 $10 $0 $0 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015Copper (US$/lb) Nickel (US$/lb) $6.00 $16.00 $4.21 $4.50 $5.00 $4.12 $11.00 $10.30 $3.77 $12.00 $10.07 $10.07 $9.98 $3.42 $4.00 $3.00 $8.00 $2.00 $4.00 $1.00 $0.00 $0.00 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015Zinc (US$/lb) Lead (US$/lb) $1.50 $1.23 $2.00 $1.04 $1.11 $1.10 $1.01 $1.25 $1.50 $1.17 $1.21 $1.00 $1.11 $1.00 $1.00 $0.50 $0.50 $0.00 $0.00 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015Tin (US$/lb) Uranium (US$/lb) $20.00 $100 $17.50 $14.42 $70.00 $75.00 $65.00 $15.00 $11.07 $11.00 $75 $10.36 $48.85 $50.00 $12.50 $10.00 $50 $7.50 $5.00 $25 $2.50 $0.00 $0 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015AUD:USD NYMEX (US$/bbl) $1.25 $1.07 $1.06 $1.05 $200 $0.95 $0.99 $1.00 $150 $111.25 $115.00 $113.00 $104.00 $0.75 $88.81 $100 $0.50 $0.25 $50 $0.00 $0 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015Source: Bloomberg Consensus Estimates - Median / High / Low 13
  • 14. recenT resources TransacTions Group 150 Mergers and Acquisitions Mergers and Acquisitions 2010 2009 GRAM 2009 2009 2008 2008 2006 Advised BHP Advised BG Advised Guandong Advised Allied Gold Advised Kalahari Advised Gem Advised IAMGOLD Billiton on its Group on its $1bn Rising on its $216m on its $54m Minerals on its Diamonds on its Corporation on its $204m offer for takeover offer for cornerstone acquisition of $140m proposed $300m acquisition $265m acquisition United Minerals Pure Energy investment in Pan Australian merger with of Kimberley of Gallery Gold. Corporation. Resources Aust. Solomons Gold. Extract Resources. Diamonds. Limited. TakeoverDefence Takeover Defence 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2007 2007 Advised Polaris Advised Indophil Advised Advised Energy Advised Brandrill Advised Summit Advised Tethyan on Metals NL on on $545m Centaurus Metals on its $86m Limited on its Resources on its its $220m $178m takeover recommended Resources on its proportional takeover $45m takeover A$1.2bn takeover competing takeover offer by Mineral offer from Zijin $20m merger offer by China offer by Ausdrill by Paladin Energy. offer by Crosby and Resources with Glengarry Guangdong Nuclear Limited. Antogafasta/Barrick. Limited. Resources. Power Group. Strategic Advisory, JointJoint Ventures and Capital Markets Strategic Advisory, Ventures and Capital Markets 2010 2010 2009 2008 2009/08 2008 2008 Advised BHP Introduced Advised BHP Advised Advised Iluka on its Advised Advised Iluka Billiton on its Denham Capital to Billiton on the Bannerman $114m Murchison Metals Resources on its US$116bn iron Trans Tasman disposal of the Resources on its institutional on its joint venture $54m Narama coal ore production Resources resulting Yabulu Nickel financing with placement and with Mitsubishi. divestment to joint venture with in NZ iron sands refinery. Resource Capital $353m accelerated Xstrata. Rio Tinto. investment. Funds. right issue. Gresham Advisory Partners Limited A.B.N. 97 003 344 269 Level 17, 167 Macquarie Street, Level 10, 1 Collins Street, Level 3, 28 The Esplanade, Sydney NSW 2000 Melbourne VIC 3000 Perth WA 6000 Telephone: 61 2 9221 5133 Telephone: 61 3 9664 0300 Telephone: 61 8 9486 7077 Facsimile: 61 2 9221 6814 Facsimile: 61 3 9650 7722 Facsimile: 61 8 9486 7024 Website: www.gresham.com.auTerms and ConditionsInformation contained in this publicationThe opinions, advice, recommendations and other information contained in this publication, whether express or implied, are published or made by Gresham Advisory Partners Limited (ABN 88 093 611 413), Australian financial services license (247113), and by its officers and employees(collectively “Gresham Advisory Partners”) in good faith in relation to the facts known to it at the time of preparation.Gresham Advisory Partners has prepared this publication without consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any individual investor, and you should not rely on the publication for the purpose of making a financial decision.To whom this information is providedThis publication is only made available to persons who are wholesale clients within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. This publication is supplied on the condition that it is not passed on to any person who is a retail client within the meaning of section 761G of theCorporations Act 2001.Disclaimer and limitation of liabilityTo the maximum extent permitted by law, Gresham Advisory Partners will not be liable in any way for any loss or damage suffered by you through use or reliance on this information. Gresham Advisory Partners’ liability for negligence, breach of contract or contravention of any law, whichcannot be lawfully excluded, is limited, at Gresham Advisory Partners’ option and to the maximum extent permitted by law, to resupplying this information or any part of it to you, or to paying for the resupply of this information or any part of it to you.No warranties made as to contentGresham Advisory Partners makes no warranty, express or implied, concerning this publication. The publication provided by us on an “AS IS” basis at your sole risk. Gresham Advisory Partners expressly disclaims, to the maximum extent permitted by law, any implied warranty of merchant-ability or fitness for a particular purpose, including any warranty for the use or the results of the use of the publication with respect to its correctness, quality, accuracy, completeness, or reliability.CopyrightCopyright in this publication is owned by Gresham Advisory Partners. You may use the information in this publication for your own personal use, but you must not (without Gresham Advisory Partners’ consent) alter, reproduce or distribute any part of this publication, transmit it to any otherperson or incorporate the information into any other document.General mattersThese Terms and Conditions are governed by the law in force in the State of Victoria, and the parties irrevocably submit to the non-exclusive jurisdiction of the courts of Victoria and courts of appeal from them for determining any disputes concerning the Terms and Conditions.If the whole or any part of a provision of these Terms and Conditions are void, unenforceable or illegal in a jurisdiction it is severed for that jurisdiction. The remainder of the Terms and Conditions have full force and effect and the validity or enforceability of that provision in any other jurisdictionis not affected. This clause has no effect if the severance alters the basic nature of the Terms and Conditions or is contrary to public policy.If Gresham Advisory Partners do not act in relation to a breach by you of these Terms and Conditions, this does not waive Gresham Advisory Partners’ right to act with respect to subsequent or similar breaches. 14