SEPTEMBER 2011
1
ASX RESOURCES - GROUP 150
We are pleased to present the September edition (in English!!) of‘Gresham Group...
Top 150 ASX Listed Resource Companies - August
By Market Capitalisation
Group 150
2
Mkt Cap (A$m) % Mkt Cap (A$m) %
Aug Ju...
SEPTEMBER 2011
3
New Entrants - August			 	 Exits - August
119	 Tigers Realm Coal Limited (ASX:TIG)
135	 Azimuth Resources...
Group 150
4
509.8
Merger & Acquisitions - Announced in August
Date
Announced
Target Acquirer
Value
(A$m)
Percent
Sought
(%...
SEPTEMBER 2011
5
Resources Sector Takeover Premiums - Past 6 Years
Source: CapitalIQ
Corporate finance theory argues that ...
Group 150
6
Source: CapitalIQ
The analysis also supports the view that premiums paid for takeovers involving cash as consi...
SEPTEMBER 2011
7
Share Price Performance - August 2011
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011
Share Price Performanc...
Group 150
8
Share Price Performance - July 2011
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011
Share Price Performance - Sin...
SEPTEMBER 2011
9
Share Price Performance - July 2011
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011
Share Price Performance ...
Group 150
10
Share Price Performance - July 2011
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011
Share Price Performance - Si...
SEPTEMBER 2011
11
Share Price Performance - July 2011
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011
Share Price Performance...
Group 150
12
Share Price Performance - July 2011
Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011
Share Price Performance - Si...
SEPTEMBER 2011
13
Consensus Commodity Price Forecasts - August
Source: Bloomberg Consensus Estimates - Median / High / Low...
Group 150
14
Gresham Advisory Partners Limited
A.B.N. 97 003 344 269
Level 17, 167 Macquarie Street,
Sydney NSW 2000
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Gresham "Group 150" - September 2011

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Gresham "Group 150" - September 2011

  1. 1. SEPTEMBER 2011 1 ASX RESOURCES - GROUP 150 We are pleased to present the September edition (in English!!) of‘Gresham Group 150’, a ranking of the top 150 ASX listed resources companies (excluding oil and gas), by market capitalisation. The continuing global uncertainty ensured the returns for August followed the pattern of the past six months. August recorded a decline in the value of the Gresham Group 150, with the cumulative market value at the end of the month being $510 billion, down 5.3%. This is equivalent to the value of the Gresham Group 150 approximately 12 months ago. Entry into the Group 150 was $111.2 million, down from $119 million last month. The gold companies appear to be the main beneficiaries of the volatile markets conditions, but even their solid performances don’t appear to have kept pace with the escalating gold price. The ASX/S&P 200 Resources Index decreased 5.2% for the month, while both the ASX All Ordinaries and ASX/ S&P 200 Index both decreased 2.9%. WhiletheAustralianeconomyispartiallycushionedbythecommodityinfluence,volatilityintheglobaleconomy is likely to remain high until positive steps are undertaken by a number of global economies to implement a lasting solution. Some commentators are suggesting the global stock and bond markets are reminiscent of the financial crisis of late 2008, and with yields on Greek 2-year government bonds pushing closer to 50% by the day, this is understandable. Subject to the circumstance, we all talk about a“30% takeover premium”being required in a control transaction. In this edition we provide the results of our study of takeover premiums offered in the past 6 years.The 2011YTD average premium for announced transactions in the resources sector has been 33%. This has come down from levels witnessed in 2009 and 2010 which were 37% and 40% respectively. The analysis also supports the view that premiums paid in cash transactions are higher given the target shareholders exit the company and don’t receive the opportunity to participate in the enlarged entity. So far in 2011, the average scrip premium offered has been 29% versus cash premiums averaging 36%. It appears the old adage“that if you say it enough, it must be true”holds, when the takeover premium of“around 30%”is offered. Gresham Advisory Partners Limited Gresham Group 150 September 2011 Edition 18 Darren Martin Gresham Advisory Partners dmartin@gresham.com.au +61 8 9486 7077 +61 412 144 719 GreshamAdvisoryPartnersisaleadingAustralianmergersandacquisitions/corporateadvisory business and one of Australia’s largest and highest ranking independent corporate advisors.
  2. 2. Top 150 ASX Listed Resource Companies - August By Market Capitalisation Group 150 2 Mkt Cap (A$m) % Mkt Cap (A$m) % Aug Jul Company 31-Aug-11 31-Jul-11 Change Aug Jul Company 31-Aug-11 31-Jul-11 Change 1 1 BHP Billiton Ltd. (ASX:BHP) $211,587.9 $220,502.2 (4.0%) 51 51 Alkane Resources Limited (ASX:ALK) $517.9 $536.7 (3.5%) 2 2 Rio Tinto Ltd. (ASX:RIO) $138,409.4 $153,603.4 (9.9%) 52 48 Gryphon Minerals Ltd. (ASX:GRY) $517.4 $560.9 (7.8%) 3 3 Newcrest Mining Ltd. (ASX:NCM) $30,791.3 $30,255.8 1.8% 53 45 Northern Iron Limited (ASX:NFE) $487.3 $621.8 (21.6%) 4 4 Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (ASX:FMG) $18,836.7 $19,646.2 (4.1%) 54 52 Guildford Coal Limited (ASX:GUF) $480.1 $530.2 (9.4%) 5 5 Coal & Allied Industries Ltd. (ASX:CNA) $10,667.2 $8,877.5 20.2% 55 63 Integra Mining Ltd. (ASX:IGR) $472.4 $400.4 18.0% 6 6 Iluka Resources Ltd. (ASX:ILU) $6,830.7 $7,378.9 (7.4%) 56 72 Silver Lake Resources Limited (ASX:SLR) $465.1 $363.1 28.1% 7 8 MacArthur Coal Ltd. (ASX:MCC) $4,800.2 $4,697.5 2.2% 57 62 Ramelius Resources Ltd. (ASX:RMS) $445.1 $401.3 10.9% 8 7 Alumina Ltd. (ASX:AWC) $4,294.7 $5,319.6 (19.3%) 58 58 Cockatoo Coal Limited (ASX:COK) $431.9 $452.2 (4.5%) 9 9 New Hope Corp. Ltd. (ASX:NHC) $4,217.6 $4,458.3 (5.4%) 59 60 Kagara Ltd (ASX:KZL) $430.8 $437.9 (1.6%) 10 10 OZ Minerals Limited (ASX:OZL) $3,785.1 $4,414.1 (14.3%) 60 61 Gold One International Limited (ASX:GDO) $428.8 $412.6 3.9% 11 12 Atlas Iron Limited (ASX:AGO) $3,217.7 $3,347.5 (3.9%) 61 67 Summit Resources Ltd. (ASX:SMM) $413.1 $381.5 8.3% 12 11 Lynas Corporation Limited (ASX:LYC) $3,102.1 $3,684.3 (15.8%) 62 55 Ampella Mining Limited (ASX:AMX) $406.9 $494.0 (17.6%) 13 13 Whitehaven Coal Limited (ASX:WHC) $2,961.9 $3,253.6 (9.0%) 63 57 OM Holdings Limited (ASX:OMH) $406.7 $464.4 (12.4%) 14 14 Aquila Resources Ltd. (ASX:AQA) $2,396.0 $2,508.3 (4.5%) 64 54 Brockman Resources Limited (ASX:BRM) $404.9 $501.0 (19.2%) 15 16 Aston Resources Limited (ASX:AZT) $2,384.8 $2,208.9 8.0% 65 97 FerrAus Ltd. (ASX:FRS) $394.6 $249.6 58.1% 16 15 PanAust Limited (ASX:PNA) $2,161.7 $2,434.9 (11.2%) 66 73 Troy Resources NL (ASX:TRY) $393.4 $356.4 10.4% 17 19 Extract Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXT) $2,024.3 $1,964.1 3.1% 67 66 Kingsrose Mining Limited (ASX:KRM) $387.0 $382.3 1.2% 18 20 Mount Gibson Iron Ltd. (ASX:MGX) $1,802.5 $1,948.6 (7.5%) 68 56 Aditya Birla Minerals Limited (ASX:ABY) $380.7 $466.9 (18.5%) 19 18 Aquarius Platinum Ltd. (ASX:AQP) $1,796.0 $1,988.8 (9.7%) 69 65 Indophil Resources NL (ASX:IRN) $363.3 $388.2 (6.4%) 20 21 Gloucester Coal Ltd. (ASX:GCL) $1,795.7 $1,887.0 (4.8%) 70 64 Bougainville Copper Ltd. (ASX:BOC) $363.0 $393.0 (7.7%) 21 17 Paladin Energy, Ltd. (ASX:PDN) $1,632.4 $2,036.3 (19.8%) 71 71 Panoramic Resources Ltd. (ASX:PAN) $361.4 $368.6 (1.9%) 22 25 Perseus Mining Ltd. (ASX:PRU) $1,532.4 $1,319.6 16.1% 72 59 Metminco Limited. (ASX:MNC) $358.3 $438.8 (18.3%) 23 24 Medusa Mining Limited (ASX:MML) $1,515.3 $1,323.3 14.5% 73 85 Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (ASX:SAR) $356.8 $295.4 20.8% 24 22 Sundance Resources Ltd. (ASX:SDL) $1,371.6 $1,508.1 (9.0%) 74 83 Noble Mineral Resources Ltd. (ASX:NMG) $324.5 $299.2 8.5% 25 28 Regis Resources Limited (ASX:RRL) $1,269.5 $1,176.5 7.9% 75 79 Metals X Limited (ASX:MLX) $323.8 $326.7 (0.9%) 26 26 Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (ASX:KCN) $1,235.1 $1,201.8 2.8% 76 84 Equatorial Resources Limited (ASX:EQX) $322.2 $295.8 8.9% 27 23 Zimplats Holdings Ltd. (ASX:ZIM) $1,184.0 $1,346.5 (12.1%) 77 75 Hunnu Coal Limited (ASX:HUN) $318.7 $339.6 (6.2%) 28 27 Independence Group NL (ASX:IGO) $1,109.9 $1,187.0 (6.5%) 78 69 Perilya Ltd. (ASX:PEM) $312.6 $375.6 (16.8%) 29 29 Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR) $1,101.9 $1,165.6 (5.5%) 79 70 Cape Lambert Resources Limited (ASX:CFE) $305.9 $369.6 (17.2%) 30 31 Western Areas NL (ASX:WSA) $1,056.8 $1,055.0 0.2% 80 98 WPG Resources Ltd (ASX:WPG) $299.8 $246.5 21.6% 31 38 Minara Resources Ltd. (ASX:MRE) $1,023.2 $783.5 30.6% 81 80 Adamus Resources Ltd. (ASX:ADU) $292.9 $315.5 (7.1%) 32 32 Coalspur Mines Limited (ASX:CPL) $988.5 $959.5 3.0% 82 78 Tiger Resources Ltd. (ASX:TGS) $291.9 $332.2 (12.1%) 33 37 CGA Mining Limited (ASX:CGX) $870.4 $820.2 6.1% 83 82 Aspire Mining Limited (ASX:AKM) $286.5 $299.7 (4.4%) 34 34 Mirabela Nickel Ltd. (ASX:MBN) $816.4 $934.4 (12.6%) 84 101 Focus Minerals Limited (ASX:FML) $284.0 $234.0 21.4% 35 35 Intrepid Mines Limited (ASX:IAU) $799.1 $929.7 (14.0%) 85 74 Rex Minerals Limited. (ASX:RXM) $280.4 $350.3 (20.0%) 36 36 Energy Resources of Australia Ltd. (ASX:ERA) $768.7 $875.5 (12.2%) 86 88 Catalpa Resources Limited (ASX:CAH) $276.2 $276.9 (0.3%) 37 44 Resolute Mining Ltd. (ASX:RSG) $760.2 $629.0 20.9% 87 87 Conquest Mining Limited (ASX:CQT) $271.2 $291.6 (7.0%) 38 39 Gindalbie Metals Ltd. (ASX:GBG) $722.1 $739.1 (2.3%) 88 77 Murchison Metals Limited (ASX:MMX) $271.2 $338.9 (20.0%) 39 47 ST Barbara Ltd. (ASX:SBM) $674.0 $595.9 13.1% 89 90 Tanami Gold NL (ASX:TAM) $270.1 $266.2 1.5% 40 30 Ivanhoe Australia Limited (ASX:IVA) $665.8 $1,071.9 (37.9%) 90 93 Straits Resources Limited (ASX:SRQ) $266.3 $256.6 3.8% 41 40 Bathurst Resources Ltd (ASX:BTU) $657.3 $719.3 (8.6%) 91 76 Mineral Deposits Ltd. (ASX:MDL) $264.3 $339.1 (22.0%) 42 41 Jupiter Mines Ltd. (ASX:JMS) $647.9 $718.1 (9.8%) 92 112 Northern Energy Corporation Ltd (ASX:NEC) $261.3 $196.0 33.3% 43 42 White Energy Company Limited (ASX:WEC) $629.0 $676.5 (7.0%) 93 113 Red 5 Ltd. (ASX:RED) $256.7 $192.6 33.3% 44 43 Discovery Metals Ltd. (ASX:DML) $605.4 $636.0 (4.8%) 94 86 Gujarat NRE Coking Coal Limited (ASX:GNM) $247.7 $292.3 (15.3%) 45 46 Grange Resources Limited (ASX:GRR) $594.1 $605.6 (1.9%) 95 92 BC Iron Limited (ASX:BCI) $246.7 $264.3 (6.7%) 46 49 Beadell Resources Ltd (ASX:BDR) $562.5 $555.9 1.2% 96 94 Carabella Resources Limited (ASX:CLR) $245.4 $255.3 (3.9%) 47 50 CuDeco Ltd. (ASX:CDU) $542.5 $537.4 0.9% 97 104 Galaxy Resources (ASX:GXY) $242.5 $219.9 10.3% 48 68 Sphere Minerals Limited (ASX:SPH) $540.1 $381.3 41.7% 98 89 Arafura Resources Limited (ASX:ARU) $233.7 $270.5 (13.6%) 49 53 Kangaroo Resources Limited (ASX:KRL) $532.3 $515.2 3.3% 99 96 Greenland Minerals and Energy Ltd (ASX:GGG) $231.9 $250.3 (7.4%) 50 33 Bandanna Energy Limited (ASX:BND) $521.7 $935.8 (44.3%) 100 95 Flinders Mines Limited. (ASX:FMS) $227.6 $254.9 (10.7%) IncludesASXResourcecompaniesexcludingoilandgas
  3. 3. SEPTEMBER 2011 3 New Entrants - August Exits - August 119 Tigers Realm Coal Limited (ASX:TIG) 135 Azimuth Resources Limited (ASX:AZH) 138 Reed Resources Ltd. (ASX:RDR) 141 Tribune Resources Limited (ASX:TBR) 143 Dragon Mining Limited (ASX:DRA) 149 Iron Road Limited (ASX:IRD) Basedonmarketcapitalisationasat 31Augustvs31July Mkt Cap (A$m) % Mkt Cap (A$m) % Aug Jul Company 31-Aug-11 31-Jul-11 Change Aug Jul Company 31-Aug-11 31-Jul-11 Change 101 105 Marengo Mining Limited (ASX:MGO) $225.5 $218.9 3.0% 126 146 ABM Resources NL (ASX:ABU) $146.7 $125.4 17.0% 102 102 Exco Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXS) $224.0 $231.8 (3.3%) 127 126 YTC Resources Limited (ASX:YTC) $146.7 $161.6 (9.2%) 103 91 Moly Mines Ltd. (ASX:MOL) $219.4 $265.6 (17.4%) 128 123 Metrocoal Ltd. (ASX:MTE) $146.7 $169.7 (13.5%) 104 99 Cokal Limited (ASX:CKA) $217.6 $239.2 (9.0%) 129 122 Altona Mining Limited (ASX:AOH) $145.2 $171.2 (15.2%) 105 109 Hillgrove Resources Ltd. (ASX:HGO) $210.3 $206.4 1.9% 130 128 Azumah Resources Ltd (ASX:AZM) $142.2 $157.7 (9.8%) 106 103 Iron Ore Holdings Limited (ASX:IOH) $205.9 $222.6 (7.5%) 131 127 African Energy Resources Limited (ASX:AFR) $142.0 $161.6 (12.1%) 107 107 South Boulder Mines Ltd. (ASX:STB) $203.9 $216.9 (6.0%) 132 125 Cerro Resources NL (ASX:CJO) $140.1 $165.2 (15.2%) 108 134 Northern Star Resources Ltd. (ASX:NST) $198.1 $140.4 41.1% 133 138 Crusader Resources Limited (ASX:CAS) $138.2 $134.3 2.9% 109 115 Atlantic Ltd (ASX:ATI) $193.8 $187.0 3.6% 134 132 Alcyone Resources Ltd (ASX:AYN) $138.2 $144.8 (4.5%) 110 116 Kula Gold Limited (ASX:KGD) $191.4 $180.2 6.2% 135 169 Azimuth Resources Limited (ASX:AZH) $136.4 $97.6 39.8% 111 106 Gold Road Resources Limited (ASX:GOR) $190.3 $217.2 (12.4%) 136 135 Indo Mines Limited (ASX:IDO) $128.7 $137.9 (6.7%) 112 118 Astron Ltd. (ASX:ATR) $186.6 $178.2 4.7% 137 131 Sylvania Resources Ltd. (ASX:SLP) $128.0 $146.1 (12.4%) 113 100 Nucoal Resources NL (ASX:NCR) $181.1 $236.1 (23.3%) 138 151 Reed Resources Ltd. (ASX:RDR) $124.4 $117.8 5.6% 114 114 Deep Yellow Ltd. (ASX:DYL) $180.6 $191.7 (5.8%) 139 143 Robust Resources Limited (ASX:ROL) $122.3 $129.1 (5.3%) 115 110 Highlands Pacific Limited (ASX:HIG) $178.4 $205.8 (13.3%) 140 130 Peninsula Energy Limited (ASX:PEN) $121.1 $151.2 (19.9%) 116 117 Mincor Resources NL (ASX:MCR) $176.2 $178.8 (1.4%) 141 156 Tribune Resources Limited (ASX:TBR) $120.7 $108.7 11.1% 117 111 Ausgold Limited (ASX:AUC) $172.7 $201.4 (14.3%) 142 142 Industrial Minerals Corporation Ltd. (ASX:IDM) $120.4 $130.8 (8.0%) 118 108 Orocobre Limited (ASX:ORE) $171.3 $214.4 (20.1%) 143 162 Dragon Mining Limited (ASX:DRA) $119.5 $103.0 16.1% 119 - Tigers Realm Coal Limited (ASX:TIG) $163.8 - - 144 139 Finders Resources Limited (ASX:FND) $118.8 $133.9 (11.3%) 120 136 Norton Gold Fields Limited (ASX:NGF) $160.6 $137.1 17.1% 145 137 Northern Minerals Limited (ASX:NTU) $118.1 $135.4 (12.8%) 121 120 Cobar Consolidated Resources Ltd (ASX:CCU) $160.0 $171.7 (6.8%) 146 144 IMX Resources Ltd. (ASX:IXR) $114.2 $128.7 (11.2%) 122 133 Blackgold International Hold. Ltd (ASX:BGG) $157.5 $144.0 9.4% 147 129 Stanmore Coal Limited (ASX:SMR) $113.8 $153.4 (25.8%) 123 119 Resource Generation Limited (ASX:RES) $154.7 $176.1 (12.2%) 148 145 Continental Coal Limited (ASX:CCC) $113.7 $126.8 (10.4%) 124 121 NKWE Platinum Ltd. (ASX:NKP) $152.5 $171.2 (10.9%) 149 153 Iron Road Limited (ASX:IRD) $112.1 $111.5 0.5% 125 124 African Iron Limited (ASX:AKI) $151.0 $165.4 (8.7%) 150 140 Resource and Investment NL (ASX:RNI) $111.2 $132.3 (15.9%) Group 150 Leaders and Laggers - Market Capitalisation Performance - August Leaders Laggers Source:CapitalIQ *Includedmaterialplacement,acquisitionand/oroptionconversionduringmonth Elemental Minerals Limited (ASX:ELM) Territory Resources Limited (ASX:TTY) Australasian Resources Ltd (ASX:ARH) Mungana Goldmines Ltd (ASX:MUX) Platinum Australia Limited (ASX:PLA) Centrex Metals Limited (ASX:CXM)
  4. 4. Group 150 4 509.8 Merger & Acquisitions - Announced in August Date Announced Target Acquirer Value (A$m) Percent Sought (%) Premium - 1 Day Prior (%) Premium - 1 Month Prior (%) Consideration Offered 29-Aug-2011 Northern Energy Corporation Ltd (ASX:NEC) Arkdale Pty. Ltd. 50.1 19 29.0 33.3 Cash 26-Aug-2011 Hillgrove Antimony-Gold Project Ancoa NL 40.0 100 - - Combinations 26-Aug-2011 Zari Exploration Limited Peak Resources Limited (ASX:PEK) 16.7 100 - - Combinations 24-Aug-2011 Minara Resources Ltd. (ASX:MRE) Glencore Investment Pty Ltd. 270.2 27 35.9 23.4 Cash 23-Aug-2011 Blackwood Coal Pty Ltd. Convergent Minerals Limited (ASX:CVG) 17.2 100 - - Cash; Equity 22-Aug-2011 Southern Iron & Central Iron & Coober Pedy Res OneSteel Limited (ASX:OST) 346.0 100 - - Cash 21-Aug-2011 Adamus Resources Ltd. (ASX:ADU) Endeavour Mining Corporation (TSX:EDV) 359.7 100 4.0 -4.8 Common Equity 18-Aug-2011 Cape Lambert - Sappes Gold Project Glory Resources Limited (ASX:GLY) 45.9 100 - - Combinations 15-Aug-2011 Greenland Minerals and Energy (Trading) A/S Greenland Minerals and Energy Ltd (ASX:GGG) 43.1 39 - - Combinations 6-Aug-2011 Coal & Allied Industries Ltd. (ASX:CNA) Rio Tinto / Mitsubishi Development Pty., Ltd. 1,525.0 14 37.4 21.3 Cash 4-Aug-2011 Cazaly - Parker Range Iron Ore Project - 95.0 100 - - Cash Source:CapitalIQ AnnouncedAustralianResources(excludingoilandgas)MergersandAcquisitions>A$10m Group 150 Market Capitalisation ASX Index Performance - August +41.7% Group 150 Mkt Cap - By Commodity MarketValuation(A$b)-Group150 +9.2%
  5. 5. SEPTEMBER 2011 5 Resources Sector Takeover Premiums - Past 6 Years Source: CapitalIQ Corporate finance theory argues that shares traded on public exchanges (ie ASX) are usually for minority interests and the resultant passive shareholding provides limited influence over the company’s decision making process, other than directing questions at directors during the AGM. The argument is extended that in a takeover scenario, the acquirer is seeking 100% control to influence the business and operations of the target and for that right the acquirer should pay a premium. Subject to the circumstance, industry participants all talk about a “30% takeover premium”being required to be offered to target shareholders in a control transaction. We have undertaken a review of takeover premiums offered since 2005, involving announced merger and acquisition transactions with a value greater than $10 million in the mining and metals industry. The average premium offered for transactions announced so far in 2011 has been 33% to the closing price on the day prior to announcement. This average has come down from levels recorded in 2009 and 2010 which were 37% and 40% respectively, to levels consistently witnessed in 2005 through 2007. Takeover Premiums Announced Transactions - Since 2005
  6. 6. Group 150 6 Source: CapitalIQ The analysis also supports the view that premiums paid for takeovers involving cash as consideration are higher given the target shareholders exit the company and don’t receive the opportunity to participate in the enlarged entity. In each of the years analysed, the average premium offered to shareholders involving cash consideration has been above transactions offering scrip consideration. To date in 2011, the average scrip premium offered has been 29% versus cash premiums averaging 36% to the closing price on the day prior to announcement . It appears the old adage “that if you say it enough, it must be true”holds, when the takeover premium of “around 30%”is offered. Cash vs Scrip Takeover Premiums Announced Transactions - Since 2005 Resources Sector Takeover Premiums - Past 6 Years
  7. 7. SEPTEMBER 2011 7 Share Price Performance - August 2011 Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011 Share Price Performance - Since 31 December 2011 Base Metals - Sector Performance SharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformance Copper Nickel Zinc
  8. 8. Group 150 8 Share Price Performance - July 2011 Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011 Share Price Performance - Since 31 December 2011 Coal - Sector Performance SharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformance
  9. 9. SEPTEMBER 2011 9 Share Price Performance - July 2011 Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011 Share Price Performance - Since 31 December 2011 Diversified - Sector Performance SharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformance Industrial Minerals - Sector Performance SharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformance
  10. 10. Group 150 10 Share Price Performance - July 2011 Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011 Share Price Performance - Since 31 December 2011 Gold - Sector Performance SharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformance
  11. 11. SEPTEMBER 2011 11 Share Price Performance - July 2011 Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011 Share Price Performance - Since 31 December 2011 Iron ore - Sector Performance SharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformance
  12. 12. Group 150 12 Share Price Performance - July 2011 Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2011 Share Price Performance - Since 31 December 2011 Platinum - Sector Performance SharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformance Uranium - Sector Performance SharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformance
  13. 13. SEPTEMBER 2011 13 Consensus Commodity Price Forecasts - August Source: Bloomberg Consensus Estimates - Median / High / Low Gold (US$/oz) Silver (US$/OZ) Copper (US$/lb) Nickel (US$/lb) Zinc (US$/lb) Lead (US$/lb) Tin (US$/lb) Uranium (US$/lb) AUD:USD NYMEX (US$/bbl) $1,826 $1,551 $1,446 $1,340 $1,259 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 $41.56 $36.75 $30.00 $27.50 $27.74 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 $4.21 $4.50 $4.12 $3.77 $3.42 $0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 $10.07 $11.00 $10.30 $10.07 $9.98 $0.00 $4.00 $8.00 $12.00 $16.00 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 $1.04 $1.11 $1.23 $1.10 $1.01 $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 $1.17 $1.21 $1.25 $1.11 $1.00 $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 $11.07 $14.42 $11.00 $10.36 $0.00 $2.50 $5.00 $7.50 $10.00 $12.50 $15.00 $17.50 $20.00 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 $48.85 $65.00 $70.00 $75.00 $50.00 $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 $1.07 $1.06 $1.05 $0.95 $0.99 $0.00 $0.25 $0.50 $0.75 $1.00 $1.25 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 $88.81 $104.00 $111.25 $115.00 $113.00 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015
  14. 14. Group 150 14 Gresham Advisory Partners Limited A.B.N. 97 003 344 269 Level 17, 167 Macquarie Street, Sydney NSW 2000 Telephone: 61 2 9221 5133 Facsimile: 61 2 9221 6814 Level 10, 1 Collins Street, Melbourne VIC 3000 Telephone: 61 3 9664 0300 Facsimile: 61 3 9650 7722 Level 3, 28 The Esplanade, Perth WA 6000 Telephone: 61 8 9486 7077 Facsimile: 61 8 9486 7024 Website: www.gresham.com.au Terms and Conditions Information contained in this publication The opinions, advice, recommendations and other information contained in this publication, whether express or implied, are published or made by Gresham Advisory Partners Limited (ABN 88 093 611 413), Australian financial services license (247113), and by its officers and employees (collectively“Gresham Advisory Partners”) in good faith in relation to the facts known to it at the time of preparation. Gresham Advisory Partners has prepared this publication without consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any individual investor, and you should not rely on the publication for the purpose of making a financial decision. To whom this information is provided This publication is only made available to persons who are wholesale clients within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. This publication is supplied on the condition that it is not passed on to any person who is a retail client within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. Disclaimer and limitation of liability To the maximum extent permitted by law, Gresham Advisory Partners will not be liable in any way for any loss or damage suffered by you through use or reliance on this information. Gresham Advisory Partners’liability for negligence, breach of contract or contravention of any law, which cannot be lawfully excluded, is limited, at Gresham Advisory Partners’option and to the maximum extent permitted by law, to resupplying this information or any part of it to you, or to paying for the resupply of this information or any part of it to you. No warranties made as to content Gresham Advisory Partners makes no warranty, express or implied, concerning this publication. The publication provided by us on an“AS IS”basis at your sole risk. Gresham Advisory Partners expressly disclaims, to the maximum extent permitted by law, any implied warranty of merchant- ability or fitness for a particular purpose, including any warranty for the use or the results of the use of the publication with respect to its correctness, quality, accuracy, completeness, or reliability. Copyright Copyright in this publication is owned by Gresham Advisory Partners. 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If Gresham Advisory Partners do not act in relation to a breach by you of theseTerms and Conditions, this does not waive Gresham Advisory Partners’right to act with respect to subsequent or similar breaches. Advised BHP Billiton on its $204m offer for United Minerals Corporation. Advised BG Group on its $1bn takeover offer for Pure Energy Resources Limited. Advised IAMGOLD Corporation on its $265m acquisition of Gallery Gold. Advised Gem Diamonds on its $300m acquisition of Kimberley Diamonds. Advised Polaris Metals NL on $178m takeover offer by Mineral Resources Limited. Advised Tethyan on its $220m competing takeover offer by Crosby and Antogafasta/Barrick. Advised Iluka on its $114m institutional placement and $353m accelerated right issue. Advised Bannerman Resources on its financing with Resource Capital Funds. Advised Iluka Resources on its $54m Narama coal divestment to Xstrata. Advised Murchison Metals on its joint venture with Mitsubishi. 2010 2010 Advised BHP Billiton on its US$116bn iron ore production joint venture with Rio Tinto. 2010 Introduced Denham Capital to Trans Tasman Resources resulting in NZ iron sands investment. 2010 2009 Advised Indophil on $545m recommended offer from Zijin 2010 Advised BHP Billiton on the disposal of the Yabulu Nickel refinery. 2009 Advised Allied Gold on its $54m acquisition of Australian Solomons Gold. 2009 Advised Brandrill Limited on its $45m takeover offer by Ausdrill Limited. 2009 2008 Advised Kalahari Minerals on its $140m proposed merger with Extract Resources. 2008 Advised Centaurus Resources on its $20m merger with Glengarry Resources. 2010 2009/08 2008 Advised Summit Resources on its A$1.2bn takeover by Paladin Energy. 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008 Advised Guandong Rising on its $216m cornerstone investment in Pan Aust. GRAM 2009 Advised Energy Metals on its $86m proportional takeover offer by China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group. 2009 MergersandAcquisitions TakeoverDefence StrategicAdvisory,JointVenturesandCapitalMarkets Recent Resources Transactions Takeover Defence Strategic Advisory, Joint Ventures and Capital Markets Mergers and Acquisitions

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