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Gresham "Group 150" - November 2010

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Gresham Group 150 - November 2010

Gresham Group 150 - November 2010

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  • 1. NOVEMBER 2010 1 ASX RESOURCES - GROUP 150 We are pleased to present the November edition of‘Group 150’, a ranking of the top 150 ASX listed resources companies (excluding oil and gas), by market capitalisation. The market value of the Group 150 at the end of September was $545 billion, up 7.6% from September and an incredible 56.9% increase from $360 billion since 30 June 2009. The entry point into the Group 150 for October was $103 million versus $95 million for September. The ASX/S&P 200 Resources Index rose 5.1% in the month, while the ASX All Ordinaries and ASX/S&P 200 Index increased 2.1% and 1.7% respectively. During October we witnessed a resurrection in resource sector M&A, with a special shine on copper. Activity involving the “bellwether metal”included Equinox’s offer for Citadel, Kingsgate’s offer for Laguna, Perilya’s offer for GlobeStar Mining and Kagara’s offer for Copper Strike, as well as Sandfire and LS-Nikko mutually agreeing to terminate the heads of agreement. While both primary and secondary copper supply remains constrained, we would not be surprised to see this level of M&A activity continue. In this edition of the Group 150 we provide an overview of the relative market rating of the ASX listed copper peers using Enterprise Value/lb of copper resource, adjusted for the cost of near term “committed” development expenditure. Market fundamentals remain strong with China currently consuming ~40% of the world’s copper production while only holding ~6% of the worlds reserves domestically which is likely to support prices at current, if not higher levels. Copper finished the month at US$8,225/t, up 26% from US$6,515 at 30 June 2010. At these price levels, any sound operating mine even a 4th quartile producer should be generating reasonable levels of cashflow. While the MRRT remains a potential impost for the domestic resources sector, we have witnessed a resurgence of risk capital returning to the sector with numerous miners having executed successful capital raisings in the past 2 months. West African gold and companies with offshore coal projects have been the major beneficiaries of recent equity raisings. During October both Paladin and Western Areas refinanced corporate bonds to extend the debt maturity profiles. The average market value of domestic focussed companies since the proposed MRRT was announced has increased 55.5% compared to international focussed peers increasing by 74.1%. Global diversified companies have increased in value by nearly 100% during the same period. Gresham Advisory Partners Limited Group 150 November 2010 Edition 8 Darren Martin Gresham Advisory Partners dmartin@gresham.com.au +61 8 9486 7077 +61 412 144 719 GreshamAdvisoryPartnersisaleadingAustralianmergersandacquisitions/corporateadvisory business and one of Australia’s largest and highest ranking independent corporate advisors.
  • 2. Top 150 ASX Listed Resource Companies - October By Market Capitalisation Group 150 2 Mkt Cap (A$m) % Mkt Cap (A$m) % Oct Sep Company 31-Oct-10 30-Sep-10 Change Oct Sep Company 31-Oct-10 30-Sep-10 Change 1 1 BHP Billiton Ltd. (ASX:BHP) $233,318.4 $216,565.4 7.7% 51 43 Murchison Metals Limited (ASX:MMX) $675.6 $722.7 (6.5%) 2 2 Rio Tinto Ltd. (ASX:RIO) $162,227.9 $150,608.4 7.7% 52 50 Summit Resources Ltd. (ASX:SMM) $642.0 $571.2 12.4% 3 3 Newcrest Mining Ltd. (ASX:NCM) $30,550.0 $30,327.2 0.7% 53 52 Resolute Mining Ltd. (ASX:RSG) $589.1 $540.2 9.1% 4 4 Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (ASX:FMG) $19,447.2 $16,207.5 20.0% 54 55 Gujarat NRE Coking Coal Limited (ASX:GNM) $578.7 $538.3 7.5% 5 5 Coal & Allied Industries Ltd. (ASX:CNA) $9,697.5 $9,027.3 7.4% 55 57 Brockman Resources Limited (ASX:BRM) $576.4 $526.7 9.4% 6 7 Alumina Ltd. (ASX:AWC) $4,953.5 $4,416.7 12.2% 56 63 Kagara Ltd (ASX:KZL) $537.9 $460.1 16.9% 7 6 OZ Minerals Limited (ASX:OZL) $4,927.4 $4,541.1 8.5% 57 67 Cockatoo Coal Limited (ASX:COK) $528.6 $412.5 28.1% 8 8 New Hope Corp. Ltd. (ASX:NHC) $4,076.4 $4,192.7 (2.8%) 58 56 Bougainville Copper Ltd. (ASX:BOC) $521.4 $533.4 (2.2%) 9 9 Equinox Minerals Ltd. (ASX:EQN) $3,949.6 $4,105.3 (3.8%) 59 58 Northern Iron Limited (ASX:NFE) $517.5 $526.0 (1.6%) 10 11 MacArthur Coal Ltd. (ASX:MCC) $3,599.7 $3,430.8 4.9% 60 74 Coalspur Mines Limited (ASX:CPL) $504.7 $350.7 43.9% 11 10 Andean Resources Ltd. (ASX:AND) $3,477.2 $3,444.3 1.0% 61 61 Giralia Resources NL (ASX:GIR) $495.4 $486.4 1.9% 12 12 Whitehaven Coal Limited (ASX:WHC) $3,435.8 $3,040.9 13.0% 62 51 Panoramic Resources Ltd. (ASX:PAN) $484.1 $555.5 (12.9%) 13 15 Paladin Energy, Ltd. (ASX:PDN) $2,945.4 $2,579.1 14.2% 63 68 Indophil Resources NL (ASX:IRN) $476.2 $393.8 20.9% 14 17 Iluka Resources Ltd. (ASX:ILU) $2,807.4 $2,502.9 12.2% 64 62 Straits Resources Ltd. (ASX:SRL) $476.0 $472.1 0.8% 15 13 Aquila Resources Ltd. (ASX:AQA) $2,786.6 $2,647.5 5.3% 65 60 Allied Gold Ltd. (ASX:ALD) $473.2 $509.7 (7.2%) 16 14 Aquarius Platinum Ltd. (ASX:AQP) $2,719.2 $2,594.1 4.8% 66 59 Ampella Mining Limited (ASX:AMX) $456.0 $517.4 (11.9%) 17 18 Riversdale Mining Ltd. (ASX:RIV) $2,530.4 $2,466.2 2.6% 67 80 Bandanna Energy Limited (ASX:BND) $451.2 $295.8 52.5% 18 16 Energy Resources of Australia Ltd. (ASX:ERA) $2,481.5 $2,536.8 (2.2%) 68 64 Sphere Minerals Limited (ASX:SPH) $426.7 $440.4 (3.1%) 19 19 Centennial Coal Co. Ltd. (ASX:CEY) $2,434.0 $2,437.9 (0.2%) 69 65 Silver Lake Resources Limited (ASX:SLR) $414.7 $427.3 (2.9%) 20 20 Lynas Corp. Ltd. (ASX:LYC) $2,427.5 $2,261.8 7.3% 70 76 Arafura Resources Limited (ASX:ARU) $404.0 $328.4 23.0% 21 21 PanAust Limited (ASX:PNA) $2,201.0 $1,920.2 14.6% 71 71 Metals X Limited (ASX:MLX) $389.2 $375.6 3.6% 22 22 Mount Gibson Iron Ltd. (ASX:MGX) $2,186.8 $1,889.2 15.8% 72 73 Gryphon Minerals Ltd. (ASX:GRY) $389.1 $362.1 7.5% 23 24 Extract Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXT) $1,861.3 $1,486.6 25.2% 73 66 Integra Mining Ltd. (ASX:IGR) $385.6 $415.8 (7.3%) 24 23 Gloucester Coal Ltd. (ASX:GCL) $1,481.7 $1,755.6 (15.6%) 74 72 Aditya Birla Minerals Limited (ASX:ABY) $380.7 $365.1 4.3% 25 25 Atlas Iron Limited (ASX:AGO) $1,355.6 $1,252.8 8.2% 75 75 NKWE Platinum Ltd. (ASX:NKP) $358.0 $345.5 3.6% 26 28 Ivanhoe Australia Limited (ASX:IVA) $1,329.6 $1,190.9 11.6% 76 69 Mincor Resources NL (ASX:MCR) $357.1 $383.2 (6.8%) 27 26 Zimplats Holdings Ltd. (ASX:ZIM) $1,318.6 $1,237.8 6.5% 77 70 Discovery Metals Ltd. (ASX:DML) $354.8 $380.5 (6.8%) 28 27 Perseus Mining Ltd. (ASX:PRU) $1,259.7 $1,221.8 3.1% 78 82 CuDeco Ltd. (ASX:CDU) $347.5 $274.6 26.5% 29 30 Aston Resources Limited (ASX:AZT) $1,254.0 $1,167.4 7.4% 79 90 Beadell Resources Ltd (ASX:BDR) $342.1 $236.3 44.8% 30 32 White Energy Company Limited (ASX:WEC) $1,167.4 $1,108.7 5.3% 80 79 Rex Minerals Limited. (ASX:RXM) $330.5 $302.6 9.2% 31 34 Citadel Resource Group Limited (ASX:CGG) $1,148.3 $935.1 22.8% 81 99 Metminco Limited. (ASX:MNC) $326.3 $204.6 59.5% 32 31 Western Areas NL (ASX:WSA) $1,058.4 $1,117.8 (5.3%) 82 77 Catalpa Resources Limited (ASX:CAH) $323.9 $327.1 (1.0%) 33 37 Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR) $1,055.2 $911.3 15.8% 83 87 Jabiru Metals Limited (ASX:JML) $309.1 $248.4 24.4% 34 36 Medusa Mining Limited (ASX:MML) $1,044.8 $917.3 13.9% 84 88 Dominion Mining Limited (ASX:DOM) $308.5 $247.4 24.7% 35 29 Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (ASX:KCN) $1,013.9 $1,172.6 (13.5%) 85 78 Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (ASX:SAR) $300.2 $307.5 (2.4%) 36 35 CGA Mining Limited (ASX:CGX) $975.9 $929.3 5.0% 86 84 Moly Mines Ltd. (ASX:MOL) $297.0 $271.5 9.4% 37 38 Avoca Resources Ltd. (ASX:AVO) $952.5 $907.1 5.0% 87 81 Troy Resources NL (ASX:TRY) $293.0 $290.4 0.9% 38 41 Gindalbie Metals Ltd. (ASX:GBG) $896.8 $777.8 15.3% 88 91 Perilya Ltd. (ASX:PEM) $283.5 $236.3 20.0% 39 33 Minara Resources Ltd. (ASX:MRE) $887.7 $946.1 (6.2%) 89 83 Galaxy Resources (ASX:GXY) $279.2 $274.4 1.7% 40 39 OceanaGold Corporation (ASX:OGC) $867.1 $858.3 1.0% 90 95 Highlands Pacific Limited (ASX:HIG) $277.4 $225.4 23.1% 41 42 ST Barbara Ltd. (ASX:SBM) $810.8 $761.7 6.4% 91 104 Conquest Mining Limited (ASX:CQT) $275.8 $186.1 48.2% 42 40 OM Holdings Limited (ASX:OMH) $809.2 $804.3 0.6% 92 86 Adamus Resources Ltd. (ASX:ADU) $272.9 $264.2 3.3% 43 47 Independence Gold NL (ASX:IGO) $798.4 $677.2 17.9% 93 85 Kingsrose Mining Limited (ASX:KRM) $270.2 $269.3 0.3% 44 46 Sundance Resources Ltd. (ASX:SDL) $785.9 $677.5 16.0% 94 93 Gold One International Limited (ASX:GDO) $270.1 $233.8 15.5% 45 45 Grange Resources Limited (ASX:GRR) $783.4 $708.5 10.6% 95 92 Cape Lambert Resources Limited (ASX:CFE) $256.6 $234.7 9.3% 46 44 Mirabela Nickel Ltd. (ASX:MBN) $776.7 $722.0 7.6% 96 102 Deep Yellow Ltd. (ASX:DYL) $253.3 $197.0 28.6% 47 54 Mantra Resources Limited (ASX:MRU) $755.2 $545.7 38.4% 97 96 Iron Ore Holdings Limited (ASX:IOH) $232.9 $213.9 8.9% 48 53 Intrepid Mines Limited (ASX:IAU) $715.9 $548.3 30.6% 98 103 Orocobre Limited (ASX:ORE) $221.6 $186.7 18.7% 49 48 Mineral Deposits Ltd. (ASX:MDL) $698.0 $633.7 10.1% 99 100 Berkeley Resources Ltd. (ASX:BKY) $220.2 $202.9 8.5% 50 49 Regis Resources Limited (ASX:RRL) $678.2 $623.1 8.8% 100 98 Tanami Gold NL (ASX:TAM) $219.2 $211.4 3.7% IncludesASXResourcecompaniesexcludingoilandgas
  • 3. NOVEMBER 2010 3 New Entrants - October Exits - October 117 Atlantic Ltd (ASX:ATI) 130 Aspire Mining Limited (ASX:AKM) 133 Elemental Minerals Limited (ASX:ELM) 136 Nyota Minerals Limited (ASX:NYO) 138 Macquarie Harbour Mining Limited (ASX:MHM) 145 Chesser Resources Limited (ASX:CHZ) 146 Kentor Gold Limited (ASX:KGL) Basedonmarketcapitalisationasat 31October2010vs30September2010 Mkt Cap (A$m) % Mkt Cap (A$m) % Oct Sep Company 31-Oct-10 30-Sep-10 Change Oct Sep Company 31-Oct-10 30-Sep-10 Change 101 89 Flinders Mines Limited. (ASX:FMS) $218.4 $245.7 (11.1%) 126 112 Golden West Resources Limited (ASX:GWR) $140.2 $156.4 (10.4%) 102 105 Tiger Resources Ltd. (ASX:TGS) $217.7 $181.8 19.7% 127 137 Bendigo Mining Ltd. (ASX:BDG) $140.2 $107.0 31.0% 103 97 Platinum Australia Limited (ASX:PLA) $211.9 $213.6 (0.8%) 128 123 Norton Gold Fields Limited (ASX:NGF) $137.1 $134.3 2.1% 104 108 Red 5 Ltd. (ASX:RED) $210.4 $161.3 30.4% 129 127 Red Hill Iron Ltd (ASX:RHI) $135.7 $126.0 7.7% 105 94 Ramelius Resources Ltd. (ASX:RMS) $209.8 $228.8 (8.3%) 130 191 Aspire Mining Limited (ASX:AKM) $134.1 $59.6 125.0% 106 129 Northern Energy Corporation Ltd (ASX:NEC) $208.0 $122.0 70.5% 131 122 Astron Ltd. (ASX:ATR) $132.8 $137.3 (3.3%) 107 124 Marengo Mining Limited (ASX:MGO) $199.5 $129.3 54.3% 132 125 Robust Resources Limited (ASX:ROL) $131.9 $125.7 4.9% 108 101 Sylvania Resources Ltd. (ASX:SLV) $199.4 $208.2 (4.2%) 133 159 Elemental Minerals Limited (ASX:ELM) $128.1 $83.6 53.2% 109 120 Guildford Coal Limited (ASX:GUF) $198.0 $136.8 44.7% 134 142 Stanmore Coal Limited (ASX:SMR) $127.5 $102.5 24.4% 110 111 BC Iron Limited (ASX:BCI) $196.3 $158.2 24.1% 135 138 Noble Mineral Resources Ltd. (ASX:NMG) $123.1 $106.3 15.8% 111 119 Greenland Minerals and Energy Ltd (ASX:GGG) $194.1 $137.7 41.0% 136 157 Nyota Minerals Limited (ASX:NYO) $122.3 $125.1 (2.2%) 112 106 Alkane Resources Limited (ASX:ALK) $193.0 $173.1 11.5% 137 139 Toro Energy Ltd (ASX:TOE) $120.6 $106.1 13.7% 113 117 Hunnu Coal Limited (ASX:HUN) $185.1 $143.4 29.1% 138 - Macquarie Harbour Mining Ltd (ASX:MHM) $119.6 $50.8 135.4% 114 107 Exco Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXS) $181.9 $171.5 6.1% 139 133 Centrex Metals Limited (ASX:CXM) $119.5 $116.3 2.8% 115 113 Nucoal Resources NL (ASX:NCR) $181.8 $152.5 19.2% 140 130 Dragon Mining Limited (ASX:DRA) $118.0 $121.7 (3.0%) 116 144 Continental Coal Limited (ASX:CCC) $177.1 $137.6 28.7% 141 135 IMX Resources Ltd. (ASX:IXR) $117.1 $113.2 3.4% 117 - Atlantic Ltd (ASX:ATI) $168.8 $52.2 223.4% 142 149 Sihayo Gold Limited (ASX:SIH) $116.1 $97.5 19.1% 118 118 Azumah Resources Ltd (ASX:AZM) $161.3 $140.3 15.0% 143 126 Magma Metals Ltd. (ASX:MMW) $113.5 $125.2 (9.3%) 119 115 Mungana Goldmines Ltd (ASX:MUX) $153.1 $150.7 1.6% 144 134 WPG Resources Ltd (ASX:WPG) $112.0 $114.4 (2.1%) 120 109 FerrAus Ltd. (ASX:FRS) $152.2 $161.1 (5.5%) 145 174 Chesser Resources Limited (ASX:CHZ) $108.3 $70.4 53.8% 121 121 Chalice Gold Mines Ltd. (ASX:CHN) $151.0 $135.2 11.7% 146 164 Kentor Gold Limited (ASX:KGL) $106.7 $80.6 32.4% 122 147 Jupiter Mines Ltd. (ASX:JMS) $149.5 $98.0 52.6% 147 132 Resource Generation Limited (ASX:RES) $106.0 $116.9 (9.3%) 123 116 Alliance Resources Ltd. (ASX:AGS) $146.7 $146.7 0.0% 148 143 Morning Star Gold NL (ASX:MCO) $104.5 $101.9 2.6% 124 110 Focus Minerals Limited (ASX:FML) $146.0 $160.3 (8.9%) 149 128 Talisman Mining Ltd (ASX:TLM) $103.4 $123.1 (16.0%) 125 114 Hillgrove Resources Ltd. (ASX:HGO) $144.8 $152.1 (4.8%) 150 140 Thundelarra Exploration Ltd. (ASX:THX) $103.2 $105.7 (2.4%) Group 150 Leaders and Laggers - Market Capitalisation Performance - October Leaders Laggers Source:CapitalIQ *Includedplacement,acquisitionand/ormaterialoptionconversionduringmonth Reed Resources Ltd. (ASX:RDR) Australasian Resources Ltd (ASX:ARH) Crescent Gold Limited (ASX:CRE) Citigold Corporation Limited (ASX:CTO) Bathurst Resources Ltd (ASX:BTU) Terramin Australia Ltd. (ASX:TZN) Kangaroo Resources Limited (ASX:KRL)
  • 4. Group 150 4 Group 150 Sector Market Capitalisation - October Merger & Acquisitions - Announced in October Date Announced Target Acquirer Value (A$m) Percent Sought (%) Premium - 1 Day Prior (%) Premium - 1 Month Prior (%) Consideration Offered 25-Oct-2010 Laguna Resources NL (ASX:LRC) Kingsgate Consolidated Ltd (ASX:KCN) 22.4 100 33.7 82.3 Equity 25-Oct-2010 Citadel Resource Group Ltd (ASX:CGG) Equinox Minerals Ltd. (ASX:EQN) 1,204.0 100 19.7 32.1 Combinations 20-Oct-2010 Dominion Mining Limited (ASX:DOM) Kingsgate Consolidated Ltd (ASX:KCN) 370.2 100 33.0 44.6 Equity 12-Oct-2010 Copper Strike Ltd. (ASX:CSE) Kagara Ltd (ASX:KZL) 14.2 99 15.8 37.5 Cash 8-Oct-2010 Northern Energy Corp Ltd (ASX:NEC) Arkdale Pty. Ltd. 183.2 95 34.5 70.5 Cash Source:CapitalIQ AnnouncedAustralianResources(excludingoilandgas)MergersandAcquisitions>A$10m Group 150 Market Capitalisation ASX Index Performance - October MarketCapitalisation(A$b)
  • 5. NOVEMBER 2010 5 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Sep-1990 Jan-1994 May-1997 Sep-2000 Jan-2004 May-2007 Sep-2010 Jan-2014 May-2017 Sep-2020 Stockpiles(tonnes'000) CopperPrice(USc/lb) Copper (A) LME stockpiles Copper LME (Nominal) Foward Curve (USc/ln) ForwardCurve Copper – A Bellwether Metal During October we witnessed a resurrection in resource sector M&A, with a particular special shine on copper. Activity in the sector included Equinox’s offer for Citadel, Kingsgate’s offer for Laguna and Kagara’s offer for Copper Strike and Perilya’s offer for GlobeStar Mining, as well as Sandfire and LS-Nikko mutually agreeing to terminate the heads of agreement. While both primary and secondary copper supply remains constrained, we would not be surprised to see this level of M&A activity continue. Copper finished the month at US$8,225/t, up 26% from US$6,515 at 30 June 2010. Global copper market fundamentals remain strong with China currently consuming ~40% of the world’s copper production while only holding ~6% of the worlds reserves domestically. Market commentators consider of the base metals, copper has the best fundamentals, with the markets forecast to move to a deficit in CY2011 and hence support the copper price for the 1 - 2 years. The charts below provide an overview of the copper market and relative market rating of the ASX listed copper peers. Source:Gresham,CompanyReports Source:IRESS,Companyreports.Tradingasat1November2010.NetDebt(forEnterpriseValuecalculation)takenasat30June2010withtheexceptionofAdityaBirlaMinerals(31March2010)andHillgrove(31July2010) 20 Year Relative Movements & Copper Forward Curve Cu Resource (billion lb) 0 3 6 9 12 15 Indophil Equinox OZ Marengo PanAust Anvil AdityaBirla Discovery Altona TigerRes Rex Citadel Sandfire Avalon Havilah Exco Blackthorn Straits Cudeco Hillgrove CopperStrike Venturex Redbank QLDMining CuResource(billionlb) 30 19 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 Citadel Sandfire Straits OZ PanAust Cudeco CopperStrike Exco Redbank Hillgrove Venturex Anvil Equinox Altona QLDMining Rex Discovery TigerRes Avalon Blackthorn AdityaBirla Havilah Marengo Indophil EVA$/lb(Cu) EV / lb of Cu Resource (A$/lb) Additional bar represents cost of near term“committed” development expenditure
  • 6. Group 150 6 Group 150 -“MRRT Impact”- Based on Project/s Location Only148companiesinOctober,SeptemberandAugustdatasetasAstronResourcesandGuildfordCoalwerenewIPO’sduringtheperiod Only149companiesinJulydatasetasGuildfordCoalwasnewIPO’s duringtheperiod Monthly Performance Overseas Domestic Overseas/ Domestic Total End of October Spread of "Group 150" by Project/s Location 53 77 18 148 - Simple Average Return 74.1% 55.5% 99.5% End of September Spread of "Group 150" by Project/s Location 51 81 16 148 - Simple Average Return 49.1% 42.3% 27.3% End of August Spread of "Group 150" by Project/s Location 47 85 16 148 - Simple Average Return 14.1% 20.0% 13.7% End of July Spread of "Group 150" by Project/s Location 49 84 16 149 - Simple Average Return 7.6% 15.4% 14.3% MarketCapitalisation-PerformanceSinceProposedMRRTAnnounced While the MRRT remains a potential impost for the domestic resources sector, we have witnessed a resurgence of risk capital returning to the resources sector. Numerous miners have executed successful capital raisings in the past 2 months as the risk appetite of investors has improved. West African gold and companies with offshore coal projects have been the major beneficiaries of recent equity raisings. During October both Paladin and Western Areas refinanced corporate bonds to extend the debt maturity profiles. The average market value of domestic focussed companies since the proposed MRRT was announced has increased 55.5% compared to international focussed peers increasing by 74.1%. Global diversified companies have increased in value by nearly 100% during the same period.
  • 7. NOVEMBER 2010 7 Share Price Performance - October 2010 Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010 Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010 Base Metals - Sector Performance SharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformance Copper Nickel Zinc
  • 8. Group 150 8 Share Price Performance - October 2010 Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010 Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010 Coal - Sector Performance SharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformance
  • 9. NOVEMBER 2010 9 Share Price Performance - October 2010 Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010 Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010 Diversified - Sector Performance SharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformance Industrial Minerals - Sector Performance SharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformance
  • 10. Group 150 10 Share Price Performance - October 2010 Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010 Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010 Gold - Sector Performance SharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformance
  • 11. NOVEMBER 2010 11 Share Price Performance - October 2010 Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010 Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010 Iron ore - Sector Performance SharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformance
  • 12. Group 150 12 Share Price Performance - October 2010 Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010 Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010 Uranium - Sector Performance SharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformanceSharePricePerformance
  • 13. NOVEMBER 2010 13 Consensus Commodity Price Forecasts - October Source: Bloomberg Consensus Estimates - Median / High / Low Gold (US$/oz) Silver (US$/OZ) Copper (US$/lb) Nickel (US$/lb) Zinc (US$/lb) Lead (US$/lb) Tin (US$/lb) Uranium (US$/lb) AUD:USD NYMEX (US$/bbl) $1,340 $1,313 $1,250 $1,150 $1,084 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 $23.84 $20.13 $20.00 $19.81 $18.32 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 $3.78 $3.67 $3.91 $3.65 $3.80 $0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 $10.48 $10.40 $11.02 $9.60 $9.25 $0.00 $4.00 $8.00 $12.00 $16.00 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 $1.13 $1.07 $1.19 $1.02 $1.10 $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 $1.14 $1.07 $1.17 $0.98 $1.00 $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 $11.91 $9.69 $8.70 $6.80 $0.00 $2.50 $5.00 $7.50 $10.00 $12.50 $15.00 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 $52.50 $62.00 $60.00 $60.00 $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 $0.97 $0.95 $0.87 $0.85 $0.80 $0.00 $0.25 $0.50 $0.75 $1.00 $1.25 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 $81.50 $84.00 $93.00 $105.00 $95.00 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014
  • 14. Group 150 14 Gresham Advisory Partners Limited A.B.N. 97 003 344 269 Level 17, 167 Macquarie Street, Sydney NSW 2000 Telephone: 61 2 9221 5133 Facsimile: 61 2 9221 6814 Level 10, 1 Collins Street, Melbourne VIC 3000 Telephone: 61 3 9664 0300 Facsimile: 61 3 9650 7722 Level 3, 28 The Esplanade, Perth WA 6000 Telephone: 61 8 9486 7077 Facsimile: 61 8 9486 7024 Website: www.gresham.com.au Terms and Conditions Information contained in this publication The opinions, advice, recommendations and other information contained in this publication, whether express or implied, are published or made by Gresham Advisory Partners Limited (ABN 88 093 611 413), Australian financial services license (247113), and by its officers and employees (collectively“Gresham Advisory Partners”) in good faith in relation to the facts known to it at the time of preparation. Gresham Advisory Partners has prepared this publication without consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any individual investor, and you should not rely on the publication for the purpose of making a financial decision. To whom this information is provided This publication is only made available to persons who are wholesale clients within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. This publication is supplied on the condition that it is not passed on to any person who is a retail client within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. Disclaimer and limitation of liability To the maximum extent permitted by law, Gresham Advisory Partners will not be liable in any way for any loss or damage suffered by you through use or reliance on this information. Gresham Advisory Partners’liability for negligence, breach of contract or contravention of any law, which cannot be lawfully excluded, is limited, at Gresham Advisory Partners’option and to the maximum extent permitted by law, to resupplying this information or any part of it to you, or to paying for the resupply of this information or any part of it to you. No warranties made as to content Gresham Advisory Partners makes no warranty, express or implied, concerning this publication. The publication provided by us on an“AS IS”basis at your sole risk. Gresham Advisory Partners expressly disclaims, to the maximum extent permitted by law, any implied warranty of merchant- ability or fitness for a particular purpose, including any warranty for the use or the results of the use of the publication with respect to its correctness, quality, accuracy, completeness, or reliability. Copyright Copyright in this publication is owned by Gresham Advisory Partners. 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If Gresham Advisory Partners do not act in relation to a breach by you of theseTerms and Conditions, this does not waive Gresham Advisory Partners’right to act with respect to subsequent or similar breaches. Advised BHP Billiton on its $204m offer for United Minerals Corporation. Advised BG Group on its $1bn takeover offer for Pure Energy Resources Limited. Advised IAMGOLD Corporation on its $265m acquisition of Gallery Gold. Advised Gem Diamonds on its $300m acquisition of Kimberley Diamonds. Advised Polaris Metals NL on $178m takeover offer by Mineral Resources Limited. Advised Tethyan on its $220m competing takeover offer by Crosby and Antogafasta/Barrick. Advised Iluka on its $114m institutional placement and $353m accelerated right issue. Advised Bannerman Resources on its financing with Resource Capital Funds. Advised Iluka Resources on its $54m Narama coal divestment to Xstrata. Advised Murchison Metals on its joint venture with Mitsubishi. 2010 2010 Advised BHP Billiton on its US$116bn iron ore production joint venture with Rio Tinto. 2010 Introduced Denham Capital to Trans Tasman Resources resulting in NZ iron sands investment. 2010 2009 Advised Indophil on $545m recommended offer from Zijin 2010 Advised BHP Billiton on the disposal of the Yabulu Nickel refinery. 2009 Advised Allied Gold on its $54m acquisition of Australian Solomons Gold. 2009 Advised Brandrill Limited on its $45m takeover offer by Ausdrill Limited. 2009 2008 Advised Kalahari Minerals on its $140m proposed merger with Extract Resources. 2008 Advised Centaurus Resources on its $20m merger with Glengarry Resources. 2010 2009/08 2008 Advised Summit Resources on its A$1.2bn takeover by Paladin Energy. 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008 Advised Guandong Rising on its $216m cornerstone investment in Pan Aust. GRAM 2009 Advised Energy Metals on its $86m proportional takeover offer by China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group. 2009 MergersandAcquisitions TakeoverDefence StrategicAdvisory,JointVenturesandCapitalMarkets Recent Resources Transactions Takeover Defence Strategic Advisory, Joint Ventures and Capital Markets Mergers and Acquisitions

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