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    Naumova Naumova Presentation Transcript

    • The Energy Outlook to 2030: globaltrends and what can bend them?Alexander NaumovCambridge, December 2011
    • Outline Global trends What can bend the trend?Energy Outlook 2030 2 © BP 2011
    • Historical trends and patterns of development Energy use per unit of GDPtoe per thousand $2009 PPP Forecast 0.6 UK 0.4 0.2 0.0 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 3 © BP 2011
    • Historical trends and patterns of development Energy use per unit of GDPtoe per thousand $2009 PPP Forecast0.6 US UK0.40.2 Japan0.0 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Energy Outlook 2030 4 © BP 2011
    • Historical trends and patterns of development Energy use per unit of GDPtoe per thousand $2009 PPP Forecast0.6 Russia/USSR US0.40.2 Japan0.0 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Energy Outlook 2030 5 © BP 2011
    • Historical trends and patterns of development Energy use per unit of GDPtoe per thousand $2009 PPP 0.6 Forecast0.4 China US0.2 World India0.0 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Energy Outlook 2030 6 © BP 2011
    • The long view: Energy consumption and fuel mix World commercial energy use Contribution to total energy growthBillion toe % p.a.18 5 Renewables * Nuclear15 Hydro 4 Gas12 Oil 3 Coal 9 2 6 1 3 0 0 1870 1910 1950 1990 2030 1850- 1910- 1970- 1990- 2010- * Includes biofuels 1910 1970 1990 2010 2030Energy Outlook 2030 7 © BP 2011
    • Non-OECD drive energy growth, while fuel shares converge Primary energy by region Shares of world primary energyBillion toe18 50% Oil1614 40%12 30% Coal10 8 Non-OECD 20% 6 Gas 4 10% OECD Hydro 2 Nuclear Renewables* 0 0% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1970 1990 2010 2030 * Includes biofuelsEnergy Outlook 2030 8 © BP 2011
    • Policies to constrain carbon emissions gradually tighten Global CO2 emissions from energy use by region by fuel vs GDP and energyBillion tonnes CO2 Billion tonnes CO2 Index (1990=100)40 40 400 350 GDP30 30 Coal 30020 20 250 Non-OECD Gas Energy 20010 10 CO 2 Oil 150 OECD 0 0 100 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030Energy Outlook 2030 9 © BP 2011
    • What can bend the trend? © BP 2011
    • 1. The future path of global economic growth Primary energy consumption Differences from Base Case, 2030Billion toe20 20% GDP High GDP Case Base 15% Case Primary15 10% Energy Oil Low GDP 5% Case10 0% Gas -5% Coal 5 -10% Non-fossil -15% 0 -20% High Low 2000 2010 2020 2030 Case CaseEnergy Outlook 2030 11 © BP 2011
    • 2. China’s pathway Industrialisation Energy per capita Industry share - % of GDP Toe / person50 9 US 1820-2009 China 200945 8 Japan 1885-2009 740 635 530 Japan 1870-2009 425 320 US 1879-2009 215 1 China 1913-203010 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 GDP per capita ($2009PPP, Thousands) GDP per capita ($2009PPP, Thousands)Energy Outlook 2030 12 © BP 2011
    • 3. Stronger policy action on climate change CO2 emissions from energy use Sources of carbon abatement versus Base Case, 2030Billion tonnes CO240 2030 Base Case 2020 Iraq 5.4 billion tonnes35 reduction CCS Policy Fuel Case30 switching25 IEA “450 Scenario” * Energy efficiency20 2000 2010 2020 2030 * a back-cast which illustrates what is required to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 ppm from IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010Energy Outlook 2030 13 © BP 2011
    • 4. Energy securityMtoe OECD Europe US China1500 100%1250 Oil & gas consumption 75%1000 750 50% 500 Oil & gas production 25% 250 0 0% 1990 1990 – 2030 2010 20301990 1990 – 2030 2010 2030 1990 1990 – 2030 2010 2030 Net imports as % of consumption (rhs): Oil Gas Energy Outlook 2030 14 © BP 2011
    • Q&A A trend is a trend is a trend. But the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course Through some unforeseen force And come to a premature end? (Alec Cairncross)Energy Outlook 2030 15For more detail see the full outlook on our website: www.bp.com/Energyoutlook2030 © BP 2011