Commanding heights

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Commanding heights

  1. 1. COMMANDING HEIGHTS Jon Fischer | R. Scott Livengood | Kyle Loosli | Jeff Morgan | Trent Snarr T H E B A T T L E F O R T H E W O R L D E C O N O M Y
  2. 2. THE BATTLE OF IDEAS
  3. 3. THE OLD ORDER FAILS <ul><li>Early 20 th century was the first age of globalization </li></ul><ul><li>This was shattered by World War I </li></ul><ul><li>Disillusioned, people gravitated to communism </li></ul><ul><ul><li>No commerce, trade, or private property </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Promised to end the “economic exploitation of man by man” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>In the West, the Allies were trying to squeeze reparations out of defeated Germany </li></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS The Old Order Fails Communism on the Heights Capitalist Collapse Global Depression Worldwide War THE AGONY OF REFORM NEW RULES OF THE GAME
  4. 4. COMMUNISM ON THE HEIGHTS <ul><li>The Austrian School: Markets work; governments don’t </li></ul><ul><li>Communist experiment in Russia was already failing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lenin’s “New Economic Policy” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Allowed small business, private property </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>State controlled “Commanding Heights” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>After Lenin’s death, Stalin consolidated control of the economy </li></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS The Old Order Fails Communism on the Heights Capitalist Collapse Global Depression Worldwide War THE AGONY OF REFORM NEW RULES OF THE GAME
  5. 5. CAPITALIST COLLAPSE <ul><li>War reparations sparked hyperinflation </li></ul><ul><li>Boom and bust in the United States </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mass-market investing, high-flying radio stocks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Stock market crash prompted bank runs, halted investment, drove unemployment </li></ul></ul><ul><li>European unrest threatened not only capitalism, but democracy </li></ul><ul><li>Keynes begins developing theories of fiscal intervention </li></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS The Old Order Fails Communism on the Heights Capitalist Collapse Global Depression Worldwide War THE AGONY OF REFORM NEW RULES OF THE GAME
  6. 6. GLOBAL DEPRESSION <ul><li>Roosevelt’s New Deal was a “war on the Great Depression” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Relief Programs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Employment Programs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increased regulation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Typical example of Keynesian counter-cyclical spending </li></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS The Old Order Fails Communism on the Heights Capitalist Collapse Global Depression Worldwide War THE AGONY OF REFORM NEW RULES OF THE GAME
  7. 7. WORLDWIDE WAR <ul><li>War spending pulled the country out of depression, vindicating Keynesians </li></ul><ul><li>Friedric von Hayek published The Road to Serfdom as a counter argument to Keynes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Rejected government planning and intervention </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Keynes’ ideas triumphed at Bretton Woods with creation of IMF and World Bank </li></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS The Old Order Fails Communism on the Heights Capitalist Collapse Global Depression Worldwide War THE AGONY OF REFORM NEW RULES OF THE GAME
  8. 8. POST-WAR PLANNING IN EUROPE <ul><li>In Britain: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Wartime hero Winston Churchill is defeated </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Labor Party takes power, promising to build a “New Jerusalem.” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Similar nationalization of the commanding heights of the economy was occurring in Russia, under Joseph Stalin. </li></ul><ul><li>The Battle of Ideas - Keynes vs. Hayek </li></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS Post-war Planning in Europe Planning Sweeps the Globe University of Chicago United States – 1970’s Britain’s Mixed Economy Founders Thatcher/Reagan “ The Heights” up for sale Was The Battle Decided? THE AGONY OF REFORM NEW RULES OF THE GAME
  9. 9. THE ECONOMY IN GERMANY <ul><li>The war left Germany in ruins. Its economy had disintegrated. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Markets didn’t function </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Shops were empty </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Raging hyperinflation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Worthless currency </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Black markets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>American cigarettes were the currency </li></ul></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS Post-war Planning in Europe Planning Sweeps the Globe University of Chicago United States – 1970’s Britain’s Mixed Economy Founders Thatcher/Reagan “ The Heights” up for sale Was The Battle Decided? THE AGONY OF REFORM NEW RULES OF THE GAME
  10. 10. THE ECONOMY IN GERMANY &quot;What have you done? You have changed the Allied price controls.&quot; Erhard was asked. He replied, &quot;Herr General, I haven't changed them; I've abolished them.” The General said, &quot;My advisors tell me it is a big mistake.&quot; Erhard replied, &quot;Herr General, my advisors tell me the same thing.&quot; THE BATTLE OF IDEAS Post-war Planning in Europe Planning Sweeps the Globe University of Chicago United States – 1970’s Britain’s Mixed Economy Founders Thatcher/Reagan “ The Heights” up for sale Was The Battle Decided? THE AGONY OF REFORM NEW RULES OF THE GAME
  11. 11. PLANNING SWEEPS THE GLOBE <ul><li>State-led model for industrial growth </li></ul><ul><li>Public sector must occupy what came to be known as the “commanding heights” of the economy: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Electricity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Telephones </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Water </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Oil </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Gas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Coal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Steel </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Trains, planes </li></ul></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS Post-war Planning in Europe Planning Sweeps the Globe University of Chicago United States – 1970’s Britain’s Mixed Economy Founders Thatcher/Reagan “ The Heights” up for sale Was The Battle Decided? THE AGONY OF REFORM NEW RULES OF THE GAME
  12. 12. UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO <ul><li>Hayek went to teach at the University of Chicago </li></ul><ul><li>8 professors and 11 other economists would go on to win Nobel Prizes </li></ul><ul><li>In Washington, however, Keynes remained king. </li></ul>MILTON FRIEDMAN: “The Chicago School meant a strong belief in minimal government and an emphasis on free market as a way to control the economy.” THE BATTLE OF IDEAS Post-war Planning in Europe Planning Sweeps the Globe University of Chicago United States – 1970’s Britain’s Mixed Economy Founders Thatcher/Reagan “ The Heights” up for sale Was The Battle Decided? THE AGONY OF REFORM NEW RULES OF THE GAME
  13. 13. UNITED STATES – 1970’S <ul><li>Stagflation – inflation and unemployment rising at the same time </li></ul><ul><li>Nixon implemented wage and price controls </li></ul><ul><li>The Results: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Shortages were created </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Prices kept on rising </li></ul></ul>RICHARD NIXON, U.S. President, 1969-1974: “The time has come for a new economic policy for the United States. Its targets are unemployment, inflation.” THE BATTLE OF IDEAS Post-war Planning in Europe Planning Sweeps the Globe University of Chicago United States – 1970’s Britain’s Mixed Economy Founders Thatcher/Reagan “ The Heights” up for sale Was The Battle Decided? THE AGONY OF REFORM NEW RULES OF THE GAME
  14. 14. BRITAIN’S MIXED ECONOMY FLOUNDERS <ul><li>Britain faced stagflation </li></ul><ul><li>Conservative party opted for wage, price controls – just as in U.S. </li></ul><ul><li>Keith Joseph and other conservatives voted out of office </li></ul>Joseph began to preach the virtues of free markets. In a series of pamphlets, he went on the intellectual offensive, attacking the mixed economy, making the case for capitalism. THE BATTLE OF IDEAS Post-war Planning in Europe Planning Sweeps the Globe University of Chicago United States – 1970’s Britain’s Mixed Economy Founders Thatcher/Reagan “ The Heights” up for sale Was The Battle Decided? THE AGONY OF REFORM NEW RULES OF THE GAME
  15. 15. MARGARET THATCHER <ul><li>While at Oxford, Thatcher once slammed Hayek's book down on a table and announced, “This is what we believe!” </li></ul><ul><li>THATCHER: “The spirit of enterprise had been sat upon for years by socialism, by too-high taxes, by too-high regulation, by too-public expenditure. The philosophy was nationalization, centralization, control, regulation. Now this had to end.” </li></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS Post-war Planning in Europe Planning Sweeps the Globe University of Chicago United States – 1970’s Britain’s Mixed Economy Founders Thatcher/Reagan “ The Heights” up for sale Was The Battle Decided? THE AGONY OF REFORM NEW RULES OF THE GAME
  16. 16. “REAGANOMICS” <ul><li>RONALD REAGAN: They just can't accept that their discredited policies of tax and tax, spend and spend, are at the root of our current problems. </li></ul>MILTON FRIEDMAN : There's no doubt in my mind that those actions of Reagan, lowering tax rates, plus his emphasis on deregulating - unleashed the basic constructive forces of the free market, and from 1983 on, it's been almost entirely up. <ul><li>Reaganomics had four key principles: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The concept of sound money </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Deregulation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Modest tax rates </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Limited government spending </li></ul></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS Post-war Planning in Europe Planning Sweeps the Globe University of Chicago United States – 1970’s Britain’s Mixed Economy Founders Thatcher/Reagan “ The Heights” up for sale Was The Battle Decided? THE AGONY OF REFORM NEW RULES OF THE GAME
  17. 17. “THE HEIGHTS” GO UP FOR SALE <ul><li>MARGARET THATCHER: So the whole efficiency of nationalized industries was running down. Why should they be efficient? They had access to the Treasury purse. </li></ul><ul><li>Thatcher’s plan for the Commanding Heights: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>End their dependence on government subsidies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Subject them to the discipline of the marketplace </li></ul></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS Post-war Planning in Europe Planning Sweeps the Globe University of Chicago United States – 1970’s Britain’s Mixed Economy Founders Thatcher/Reagan “ The Heights” up for sale Was The Battle Decided? THE AGONY OF REFORM NEW RULES OF THE GAME
  18. 18. WAS THE BATTLE DECIDED? Video
  19. 19. THE AGONY OF REFORM A Look At Russia, Poland, Chile & Bolivia
  20. 20. LENIN’S REVOLUTION <ul><li>The Essence of Soviet Power </li></ul><ul><li>Central Planning </li></ul><ul><li>Socialism </li></ul><ul><li>Control </li></ul><ul><li>Government Ownership </li></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS THE AGONY OF REFORM Lenin’s Revolution Behind the Iron Façade Russia Poland The Phone Call That Ended the Cold War Poland’s Answer Soviet Free Fall NEW RULES OF THE GAME
  21. 21. BEHIND THE IRON FAÇADE <ul><li>What Gordievsky knew </li></ul><ul><li>The true cost of military power </li></ul><ul><li>The result was empty shelves </li></ul><ul><li>Collapse of an Empire </li></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS THE AGONY OF REFORM Lenin’s Revolution Behind the Iron Façade Russia Poland The Phone Call That Ended the Cold War Poland’s Answer Soviet Free Fall NEW RULES OF THE GAME
  22. 22. RUSSIA <ul><li>A campfire conspiracy </li></ul><ul><li>Michael Gorbachev </li></ul><ul><li>The Pantyhose Commission </li></ul><ul><li>Pressure from the West </li></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS THE AGONY OF REFORM Lenin’s Revolution Behind the Iron Façade Russia Poland The Phone Call That Ended the Cold War Poland’s Answer Soviet Free Fall NEW RULES OF THE GAME Video
  23. 23. POLAND <ul><li>The Shipyards of Gdansk </li></ul><ul><li>Solidarity Party </li></ul><ul><li>Professor Sachs </li></ul><ul><li>“There is not milk in this city” </li></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS THE AGONY OF REFORM Lenin’s Revolution Behind the Iron Façade Russia Poland The Phone Call That Ended the Cold War Poland’s Answer Soviet Free Fall NEW RULES OF THE GAME
  24. 24. THE PHONE CALL THAT ENDED THE COLD WAR <ul><li>Berlin 1953 </li></ul><ul><li>Budapest 1956 </li></ul><ul><li>Prague 1968 </li></ul><ul><li>Warsaw 1989 - Different Answer </li></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS THE AGONY OF REFORM Lenin’s Revolution Behind the Iron Façade Russia Poland The Phone Call That Ended the Cold War Poland’s Answer Soviet Free Fall NEW RULES OF THE GAME Video
  25. 25. POLAND’S ANSWER <ul><li>Rapid and Massive </li></ul><ul><li>Shock Therapy </li></ul><ul><li>The “Egg Test” </li></ul><ul><li>The hardest hit had helped most </li></ul><ul><li>Solidarity loses support </li></ul><ul><li>Poland’s Entrepreneurial Drive </li></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS THE AGONY OF REFORM Lenin’s Revolution Behind the Iron Façade Russia Poland The Phone Call That Ended the Cold War Poland’s Answer Soviet Free Fall NEW RULES OF THE GAME
  26. 26. SOVIET FREE FALL <ul><li>Hard-liners strike back </li></ul><ul><li>The Soviet Union disintegrates </li></ul><ul><li>The boys in pink shorts </li></ul><ul><li>Voucher Capitalism </li></ul><ul><li>Red Directors vs. Oligarchs </li></ul><ul><li>Russia defaults, Yeltsin resigns </li></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS THE AGONY OF REFORM Lenin’s Revolution Behind the Iron Façade Russia Poland The Phone Call That Ended the Cold War Poland’s Answer Soviet Free Fall NEW RULES OF THE GAME Video
  27. 27. TROUBLE IN LATIN AMERICA <ul><li>Mid-late 1900’s </li></ul><ul><li>Rich in Raw Materials </li></ul><ul><li>Poor Economies </li></ul><ul><li>Dependency Theory </li></ul><ul><li>Increased Government Intervention </li></ul><ul><li>Political Unrest </li></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS THE AGONY OF REFORM … Trouble in Latin America Dependency Theory Example: Chile The Chicago Boys Example: Bolivia Reform in Latin America NEW RULES OF THE GAME
  28. 28. DEPENDENCY THEORY <ul><li>Goal: Economic Growth </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Put up barriers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tariffs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Invest in domestic industries </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Reality: Economic Stagnation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cut-off from technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>No external investment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Less domestic productivity </li></ul></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS THE AGONY OF REFORM … Trouble in Latin America Dependency Theory Example: Chile The Chicago Boys Example: Bolivia Reform in Latin America NEW RULES OF THE GAME
  29. 29. EXAMPLE: CHILE THE BATTLE OF IDEAS THE AGONY OF REFORM … Trouble in Latin America Dependency Theory Example: Chile The Chicago Boys Example: Bolivia Reform in Latin America NEW RULES OF THE GAME Video
  30. 30. THE CHICAGO BOYS <ul><li>University of Chicago School of Economics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Milton Friedman Visited Chile </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Inflation Problem </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Pinochet </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Encouraged Free Markets </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ Decisive and Immediate” Action </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Painful Reforms (High unemployment) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Damage of association of repressive government and free market reforms. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Painful” Economic Growth as a Result </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Freedom Follows Free Markets </li></ul></ul>Friedman Pinochet THE BATTLE OF IDEAS THE AGONY OF REFORM … Trouble in Latin America Dependency Theory Example: Chile The Chicago Boys Example: Bolivia Reform in Latin America NEW RULES OF THE GAME
  31. 31. EXAMPLE: BOLIVIA <ul><li>Poorest of Latin American Countries </li></ul><ul><li>Hyperinflation (July 1985, 60,000%) </li></ul><ul><li>Instability (President of the Week) </li></ul><ul><li>Government Spending (30x Tax Income) </li></ul><ul><li>Most Severe Case in Latin America </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Jeffrey Sachs, Harvard University </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Introduced “Shock Therapy” to Bolivia’s Economy </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Pattern for all of Latin America </li></ul></ul></ul>Sachs THE BATTLE OF IDEAS THE AGONY OF REFORM … Trouble in Latin America Dependency Theory Example: Chile The Chicago Boys Example: Bolivia Reform in Latin America NEW RULES OF THE GAME
  32. 32. EXAMPLE: BOLIVIA THE BATTLE OF IDEAS THE AGONY OF REFORM … Trouble in Latin America Dependency Theory Example: Chile The Chicago Boys Example: Bolivia Reform in Latin America NEW RULES OF THE GAME Video
  33. 33. REFORM IN LATIN AMERICA <ul><li>Led by Leading U.S. Scholars </li></ul><ul><li>Extremely Painful at First: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Political Unrest </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Anti-American Sentiment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>High Prices; High Unemployment </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Results: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increased Stability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic Growth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Political Freedom </li></ul></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS THE AGONY OF REFORM … Trouble in Latin America Dependency Theory Example: Chile The Chicago Boys Example: Bolivia Reform in Latin America NEW RULES OF THE GAME
  34. 34. DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD OF GLOBALIZATION Video
  35. 35. THE GOOD <ul><li>Opening of new markets </li></ul><ul><li>New sources of capital </li></ul><ul><li>Broader opportunities for investment </li></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS THE AGONY OF REFORM NEW RULES OF THE GAME The Good The Bad NAFTA Technology Spurs Expansion Liquid Money Averting a Disaster Mo Money, Mo Prahlems Asia: Ready for Success Contagion Illustrated New Rules of the Game
  36. 36. THE BAD <ul><li>Global responsibility </li></ul><ul><li>Increased risk due to the unknown </li></ul><ul><li>Contagion </li></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS THE AGONY OF REFORM NEW RULES OF THE GAME The Good The Bad NAFTA Technology Spurs Expansion Liquid Money Averting a Disaster Mo Money, Mo Prahlems Asia: Ready for Success Contagion Illustrated New Rules of the Game
  37. 37. NAFTA <ul><li>First great debate of the globalization era </li></ul><ul><li>Great sucking sound </li></ul><ul><li>Transformation of Northern Mexico (TV’s) </li></ul><ul><li>Trade from $40B to $280B in 6 years </li></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS THE AGONY OF REFORM NEW RULES OF THE GAME The Good The Bad NAFTA Technology Spurs Expansion Liquid Money Averting a Disaster Mo Money, Mo Prahlems Asia: Ready for Success Contagion Illustrated New Rules of the Game
  38. 38. TECHNOLOGY SPURS EXPANSION <ul><li>Internet </li></ul><ul><li>Information flow </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge of cultures and new markets </li></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS THE AGONY OF REFORM NEW RULES OF THE GAME The Good The Bad NAFTA Technology Spurs Expansion Liquid Money Averting a Disaster Mo Money, Mo Prahlems Asia: Ready for Success Contagion Illustrated New Rules of the Game
  39. 39. LIQUID MONEY <ul><li>What do you think of when we say “trade?” </li></ul><ul><li>Goods and services. </li></ul><ul><li> Trade in goods and services: $8 trillion </li></ul><ul><li>Stocks, bonds, and currencies </li></ul><ul><li> Trade in currencies: $288 trillion </li></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS THE AGONY OF REFORM NEW RULES OF THE GAME The Good The Bad NAFTA Technology Spurs Expansion Liquid Money Averting a Disaster Mo Money, Mo Prahlems Asia: Ready for Success Contagion Illustrated New Rules of the Game Video
  40. 40. AVERTING A DISASTER – MEXICAN MELTDOWN <ul><li>The very day NAFTA came into effect, Zapatista rebels launched an uprising in Southern Mexico. Shortly afterward, the leading presidential candidate was assassinated. Worried about stability, foreign investment began to flee. The global economy was about to face a new kind of crisis. </li></ul><ul><li>Bailout of $40 Billion to Mexico. </li></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS THE AGONY OF REFORM NEW RULES OF THE GAME The Good The Bad NAFTA Technology Spurs Expansion Liquid Money Averting a Disaster Mo Money, Mo Prahlems Asia: Ready for Success Contagion Illustrated New Rules of the Game Video
  41. 41. MO MONEY, MO PRAHLEMS THE BATTLE OF IDEAS THE AGONY OF REFORM NEW RULES OF THE GAME The Good The Bad NAFTA Technology Spurs Expansion Liquid Money Averting a Disaster Mo Money, Mo Prahlems Asia: Ready for Success Contagion Illustrated New Rules of the Game
  42. 42. ASIA: READY FOR SUCCESS? <ul><li>Huge influx of capital </li></ul><ul><li>Institutional weakness </li></ul><ul><li>Underdeveloped markets </li></ul><ul><li>Inadequate securities laws </li></ul><ul><li>“Pegging” as monetary policy </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of positive NPV projects </li></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS THE AGONY OF REFORM NEW RULES OF THE GAME The Good The Bad NAFTA Technology Spurs Expansion Liquid Money Averting a Disaster Mo Money, Mo Prahlems Asia: Ready for Success Contagion Illustrated New Rules of the Game Video
  43. 43. CONTAGION ILLUSTRATED Thailand Malaysia Indonesia S. Korea Russia LTCM Global Interconnectedness THE BATTLE OF IDEAS THE AGONY OF REFORM NEW RULES OF THE GAME The Good The Bad NAFTA Technology Spurs Expansion Liquid Money Averting a Disaster Mo Money, Mo Prahlems Asia: Ready for Success Contagion Illustrated New Rules of the Game Video
  44. 44. NEW RULES OF THE GAME <ul><li>Required reserves </li></ul><ul><li>Lending restrictions </li></ul><ul><li>Exchange rate monitoring </li></ul><ul><li>Increased transparency </li></ul>THE BATTLE OF IDEAS THE AGONY OF REFORM NEW RULES OF THE GAME The Good The Bad NAFTA Technology Spurs Expansion Liquid Money Averting a Disaster Mo Money, Mo Prahlems Asia: Ready for Success Contagion Illustrated New Rules of the Game Video
  45. 46. QUESTIONS

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