County plan

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Presentation by Rose Baker and David Passmore at a trainign workshop held by the County Planning Directors Association of Pennsylvania in State College, Pennsylvania, USA, on November 4, 2010

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County plan

  1. 1. Rose M. Baker David L. Passmore County Planning Directors Association of Pennsylvania November 4, 2010
  2. 2.  Economic tools you use or would like to use  Local impacts of Marcellus Shale development  The great Pennsylvania Marcellus Shale severance tax pickle
  3. 3. What you use…..what you want
  4. 4. Not what you wish you could use….
  5. 5. Not what you use….
  6. 6.  Economic Base  Location Quotients  Multipliers  Shift-Share  Demographics  Industry & Occupational Employment  Occupational Competencies  TravelTo & From Work  Industry Unemployment  Regional Supply Purchases  Occupational Compatibility  Industry Labor Market Dynamics  Policy Modeling & Forecasting
  7. 7. Economic Base  Recognition of significant spending drivers of employment and earnings in region; identification of supply chain dependencies and strategic, supporting economic activity. Effects of regional spending on jobs and earnings.  Uses
  8. 8. Economic Base  State of  Pennsylvania  Example
  9. 9. LocationQuotients  Identification of clusters of employment and competence in the region and occupations within the clusters; initial industry information for revealing points of productivity as well as problems; outline of deployment of human capital assets. Concentration of employment and occupational competencies compared with Commonwealth and nation.  Uses
  10. 10. LocationQuotients  State of  Pennsylvania  Example 2009-2014
  11. 11. Multipliers  Specification of “ripple effects” throughout economy to understand need to plan for economic and workforce development in industries that support and are affected by region. Direct, indirect, and induced employment, output, value added, and taxes resulting from economic activity.  Uses
  12. 12. Multipliers  State of  Pennsylvania  Example Each additional 100 new jobs:
  13. 13. Shift-ShareAnalysis  Estimation of the extent to which improvements in worker productivity, reduction of costs, and alignment of prices could make regional industries more competitive compared with the Commonwealth and the nation. Decomposition of sources of changes over time in the numbers employed into national, industry mix, and competitive components.  Uses
  14. 14. Shift-Share  State of  Pennsylvania  Example 2009-2014
  15. 15. Demographics  Understanding of how age/sex/race composition of the regional labor force affects recruiting and retention in the region; documentation of the flow of human capital in and out of the region. Current and forecasted distribution of numbers of persons by sex, age, and race; in– and out– migration.  Uses
  16. 16. Demographics  State of  Pennsylvania  Example 2009-2014
  17. 17. Industry & Occupational Employment  Specification of recruitment and training needs created due to economic change and as a result of the need to replace people who die, retire, or otherwise leave occupations in the region. Current and forecasted numbers of people employed by compensation and job openings by occupation.  Uses
  18. 18. Industry & Occupational Employment  State of  Pennsylvania  Example 2009-2014
  19. 19. Occupational Competencies  Identification of human capital assets in the region. Knowledge, abilities, and skills of workers in occupations.  Uses
  20. 20. Occupational Competencies  State of  Pennsylvania  Example 2009-2014
  21. 21. Industry Unemployment  Estimation of the labor pool available and of the relative tightness of the local labor market in an industry compared with the Commonwealth and the nation. Unemployment rate by last or most recent industry employed.  Uses
  22. 22. Industry Unemployment  State of  Pennsylvania  Example July 2010
  23. 23. Regional Supply Purchases  Possibilities for regional employment growth if regional industries become more active in the supply chain for the region. Percentage of regional purchases of regional products in the region.  Uses
  24. 24. Regional Supply Purchases  State of  Pennsylvania  Example Opportunity for growth
  25. 25. Occupational Compatibility  Recognition of redundant human capital assets in the regional economy that could be redeployed to fill vacancies in industries and occupations in demand. Qualifications of workers in occupations in the region who have knowledge, abilities, and skills applicable in other occupations in the region.  Uses
  26. 26. Occupational Compatibility  State of  Pennsylvania  Example
  27. 27. Industry Labor Market Dynamics  Description of the nature and structure of changes in employment in a region as well as opportunities for new labor force entrants. From longitudinal employment data for industries, net job flows, job creation, new hires, separations, turnover, monthly earnings of incumbent workers and new hires.  Uses
  28. 28. Industry Labor Market Dynamics  Harrisburg–Carlisle  Pennsylvania  Example Harrisburg–Carlisle, all industries
  29. 29. TravelTo & FromWork  Specification of the geography of labor markets for a region. Identification of travel shed and commute shed traffic patterns for a region using origin/destination data from employment records (more recent than Census 2000 travel patterns data) and with some industrial detail.  Uses
  30. 30. TravelTo & FromWork  Pittsburgh  Pennsylvania  Example
  31. 31. Policy Modeling & Forecasting  Consideration of the detailed impacts of actual and anticipated economic and demographic events and trends. Simulation of policy alternatives and counterfactuals (“what-if” analyses) related to economic and demographic performance and competitiveness in Pennsylvania.  Uses
  32. 32. Policy Modeling & Forecasting  State of  Pennsylvania  Example
  33. 33. Policy Modeling & Forecasting  Economic &  Workforce Briefs
  34. 34. Policy Modeling & Forecasting  Economic &  Workforce Briefs Over 100 Brief reports completed….
  35. 35. Local impacts
  36. 36. Local impacts
  37. 37. Possible positive impacts…. Positive
  38. 38. Possible negative impacts…. Negative
  39. 39. CONSIDINE/WATSON, 2009 CONSIDINE/WATSON/BLUMSA CK, 2010
  40. 40.  Can you be part of the supply chain?  Where, when, and how will royalties and lease payments be spent?  Will other economic activities be offset by Marcellus Shale?  Can infrastructure be built and maintained?
  41. 41. Will it help or hurt?
  42. 42. Ways it will help locally….. Will help
  43. 43. Ways it will hurt locally….. Will hurt
  44. 44. Released on September 13, 2010
  45. 45. Rose M. Baker David L. Passmore County Planning Directors Association of Pennsylvania November 4, 2010

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