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Marcellus Shale Natural Gas Development and the Implications for Pennsylvania Schools,,,,K, Schafft
 

Marcellus Shale Natural Gas Development and the Implications for Pennsylvania Schools,,,,K, Schafft

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  • Depending on how Marcellus Development is framed it can appear as a situation representing massive opportunity or massive risk
  • Depending on how Marcellus Development is framed it can appear as a situation representing massive opportunity or massive risk

Marcellus Shale Natural Gas Development and the Implications for Pennsylvania Schools,,,,K, Schafft Marcellus Shale Natural Gas Development and the Implications for Pennsylvania Schools,,,,K, Schafft Presentation Transcript

  • Marcellus Shale Natural Gas Development and the Implications for Pennsylvania Schools Kai A. Schafft Department of Education Policy Studies Center on Rural Education and Communities Penn State UniversityUnderstanding and Preparing for Marcellus Shale Impacts in Your School District March 15, 2012 Nittany Lion Inn, Penn State
  • Why is Marcellus Shale natural gasdevelopment an issue for schools and communities?
  • Why is Marcellus Shale natural gasdevelopment an issue for schools and communities? Rapid pace and scale of development;
  • >3100 Wells by July, 2011As many as 60,000 or more wells may be drilled in theMarcellus Shale in Pennsylvania in the coming decades.
  • Why is Marcellus Shale natural gasdevelopment an issue for schools and communities? Rapid pace and scale of development;  Gas development in PA so far is uneven, but it is spreading.
  • Why is Marcellus Shale natural gasdevelopment an issue for schools and communities? Rapid pace and scale of development;  Gas development in PA so far is uneven, but it is spreading;  Schools key players/stakeholders in managing risk and oppty associated with community change.
  • Framing of Marcellus Development:Massive Opportunity or Massive Risk?Opportunity Risk• Economic Development • Economic Exploitation• Revitalized Communities • Boom-Bust Communities• Local Job Creation • Low Skill Job Creation• Opportunities for Youth • Environmental Damage• Greener energy source • Further dependence on carbon-based fuels
  • Framing of Marcellus Development: Massive Opportunity or Massive Risk? Opportunity Risk • Economic Development • Economic Exploitation • Revitalized Communities • Boom-Bust Communities • Local Job Creation • Low Skill Job Creation • Opportunities for Youth • Environmental Damage • Greener energy source • Further dependence on carbon-based fuelsHow can Risks and Opportunities be best managed?
  • Examination of School District and CTC Perceptions of and Responses to Marcellus Development: Research Questions• What are the key opportunities and challenges associated with Marcellus-related community change?;• How are Pennsylvania schools (CTCs) across Pennsylvania’s Marcellus region adjusting educational offerings and workforce development efforts?;• What are the secondary factors (economic and demographic change, housing cost and availability, effects on community infrastructure) associated with Marcellus development that may affect the capacity of schools and CTCs to meet the needs of Pennsylvania’s young people as they make post-secondary transitions?
  • Map of Pennsylvania School Districts Showing Marcellus Shale Coverage, Area of Survey Administration, and Marcellus Wells * Greyscale = Area of Survey Administration * Diagonal Hatching = Marcellus Shale coverage
  • Opportunities and Challenges Economic Development; Physical Infrastructure and Environment; Local Demographic Change; Housing Impacts; Curricular Change & Workforce Development.
  • Economic Development Respondents from High Drilling Activity Districts Only All Others N% reporting significantactivity as a result ofgas industrydevelopmentJob creation 35.6 6.6 316Local wealth creation 32.2 6.3 311Business start-up 20.0 4.3 308
  • Economic Development Respondents from High Drilling Activity Districts Only All Others N% reporting significantactivity as a result ofgas industrydevelopmentJob creation 35.6 6.6 316Local wealth creation 32.2 6.3 311Business start-up 20.0 4.3 308
  • “Although there is some economicdevelopment from the Marcellusgas industry I am not seeing howthe school districts can benefitfrom this.”- Survey respondent
  • Shale gas development and dropouts?% agreeing or strongly Respondents fromagreeing High Drilling Activity All Districts Only Others NMarcellus-relatedworkforce demands hasincreased dropoutlikelihood 17.4 11.0 319
  • Shale gas development and dropouts?Average change in school district by level ofMarcellus drilling activity, 2007-08 to 2009-10 0 wells 1-5 wells 6-19 wells 20+ wellsDropout -.07 -.10 -.30 -.03RateN= 398 55 21 25
  • Physical Infrastructure and Environment Respondents from High Drilling Activity All Districts Only Others N% reporting significantactivity as a result of gasindustry developmentRoad congestion/wear &tear 53.3 16.2 319Water and/orenvironmental problems 33.3 9.6 288
  • Physical Infrastructure and Environment Respondents from High Drilling Activity All Districts Only Others N% reporting significantactivity as a result of gasindustry developmentRoad congestion/wear &tear 53.3 16.2 319Water and/orenvironmental problems 33.3 9.6 288
  • Local Demographic Change Respondents from High Drilling Activity Districts Only All Others N% reporting significantactivity as a result of gasindustry developmentStrains on public services 39.6 5.3 300New in-migrants 24.1 3.8 318Displacement of low/fixedincome residents 20.0 2.4 308Increases in EnglishLanguage Learner (ELL) 12.1 1.5 326
  • Local Demographic Change Respondents from High Drilling Activity Districts Only All Others N% reporting significantactivity as a result of gasindustry developmentStrains on public services 39.6 5.3 300New in-migrants 24.1 3.8 318Displacement of low/fixedincome residents 20.0 2.4 308Increases in EnglishLanguage Learner (ELL) 12.1 1.5 326
  • Average Change in School District, by Level of MarcellusDrilling Activity, 2007/08 to 2009/2010 (number of districts) Amount of Marcellus Shale Drilling ActivityOther 0 Wells 1-5 Wells 6-19 Wells 20+ WellsStudentEnrollment(Average Daily -1.48% -3.18% -2.78% -3.33%Membership) (398) (55) (21) (25)
  • Marcellus drilling activity and changes in student enrollment inschool districts through the end of the 2009–2010 academic year
  • Local Housing Impacts Respondents from High Drilling Activity All Districts Only Others N% reporting significantactivity as a result of gasindustry developmentIncreased rents 40.0 7.1 288Housing shortage 35.1 5.0 295Increased property values 29.1 6.7 290
  • Curricular Change and Workforce Development School District Respondents CTCs% agreeing or strongly High Drilling High Drillingagreeing: Activity Activity Districts DistrictsLack sufficient info aboutworkforce needs to makecurricular changes 61.4 76.8 41.6Investing in workforcedevelopment is risky givenuncertain time horizon ofMarcellus jobs 47.1 47.5 30.4
  • “What happens after the shale isdepleted of natural gas? Does theindustry leave us high and dry likethe coal barons did?”- survey respondent
  • Curricular Change and Workforce Development School District Respondents CTCs% agreeing or strongly High Drilling High Drillingagreeing: Activity Activity Districts DistrictsFinancial constraints limitcurricular response toMarcellus wkforce needs 64.3 68.6 65.2Marcellus jobs more likelyto be filled by men thanwomen 83.6 67.7 81.8
  • Largely Unanticipated Outcomes of Rapid Gas Development• New forms of residential mobilities and transiency;• Displacement;• For schools: difficulty recruiting and retaining teachers and staff (“institutional capture” by gas industry)• Uncertainty regarding workforce development/opptys for women?;
  • Conclusions• Rapidly changing conditions – environmentally, economically, politically – make outcomes highly unpredictable;• How can Marcellus development be part of a longer term strategy for economic (and environmental) sustainability in PA communities?• How can schools as educational institutions (and not simply providers of workforce development) help to manage the challenges and opportunities associated with rapid gas development?