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Financial lessons from nature

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The realisation that dynamic systems in economic and social domains behave in a similar manner to those found in nature is gaining momentum...but, unless the comparisons are drawn again and again the ...

The realisation that dynamic systems in economic and social domains behave in a similar manner to those found in nature is gaining momentum...but, unless the comparisons are drawn again and again the lessons will be overlooked by those whose belief systems cannot see beyond the models...no matter how flawed...that brought us to this point. I hope this presentation helps your understanding in some way. If so spread the word we NEED to get to work!

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  • The bewildering, entrancing, unpredictable nature of nature and people, the richness, diversity and changeability of life come from that evolutionary dance generated by cycles of growth, collapse, reorganisation, renewal and re-establishment. We call that the adaptive cycle. Holling, 2009
  • In an adaptive cycle, early growth is rapid as individuals of many species arrive in a newly opened space and seek to exploit a plethora of vacant ecological niches. Genetic diversity and biomass, both living and dead, increase quickly in this expansion phase. Ecological connections are initially simple and sparse, but over time many interconnections and mutual dependencies develop. The system therefore increases in both 'wealth' and connectedness, as flows of energy and materials become larger and more complex. Biological 'wealth' confers the potential for novelty, allowing the system to adapt in disparate directions as circumstances warrant. Connectedness permits increasing stability, through the development of negative feedback loops, which help to regulate conditions conducive to life.
  • As time passes, rapid growth gives way to conservation. Inter-dependencies become highly specialized and self-regulation becomes fine-tuned and sophisticated. Efficiency is maximized as niches are fully occupied, and flows of energy and nutrients are tightly controlled by the existing biota. This represents the end of the growth phase. Relatively few opportunities are left for newcomers or novel strategies, hence diversity stabilizes or declines. The system is 'rich', but becomes more rigid, and therefore less resilient in the face of potential shocks, which can propagate rapidly through a highly inter-connected system with smaller margins for error than it had in its generalist phase. An increasingly brittle ecosystem becomes, in Holling's words, "an accident waiting to happen".
  • When something does push the ecosystem outside of the boundaries it can tolerate, the long growth phase can morph into a rapid and chaotic release and reorganisation phase, where nutrients and energy stores previously tied up can suddenly be liberated. This can be associated with a considerable loss of complexity, but also with much greater potential for generalist strategies and for novelty.
  • When collapse occurs it can be a natural part of the pattern of adaptation and learning. That is what happens in forests when they burn or are attacked by natural enemies. Recovery typically replaces the old with a similar but new pattern that is similar because of the memory reserved in seeds and vegetation of the understory. But when the collapse occurs as a consequence of long effort to freeze the system into one paradigm of development and management, then it might involve collapse of a level of the panarchy, which in turn threatens other levels. The collapse of ancient societies has this character- the top religious and political controls can collapse, triggering the gradual collapse of institutions till the family is left as the sole source of survival. It leads to a "poverty trap." Holling, 2009
  • Where higher and lower order cycles are very tightly coupled, they may synchronize, becoming trapped in a extended growth phase at many scales at once, thereby risking synchronous collapse. This need not be triggered at a large-scale level, but can begin anywhere in a set of nested adaptive cycles and proceed both upwards and downwards. A destabilizing event arising from below, for instance a disease outbreak leading to widespread morbidity and further adverse consequences, is called a 'revolt'. A synchronous collapse, which can take the form of a "pancaking implosion", to use Holling's term, can lead to a poverty trap, or persistent maladaptive state characterized by low 'wealth' and connectivity, which is very much more difficult to recover from than a localized reversal would have been.
  • Resilience arises from a redundancy that has the appearance of inefficiency and a lack of critical structural dependency on specialized hierarchy, neither of which conditions are likely to be met at the peak of the growth phase of an adaptive cycle. For these to be achieved from this point at least a partial, or localized, collapse to a simpler level of organisation would have to occur. There can potentially be a fine line between a retreat from rigidity to this level of resilience and a 'poverty trap', where a collapse has proceeded so far and so fast that the system has been stripped of the wealth (biological or otherwise) that it would need to rebuild. Where adaptive cycles have become synchronized, so that the likelihood of deep collapse is increased, striking a balance of resilience would be far more difficult.
  • Crisis timetableSeptember 2007 Funding problems at Northern Rock triggers the first run on a British bank. It is nationalised in February 2008.April 2008 Bear Stern faces bankruptcy after a run on the company wipes out cash reserves in less than two days. Backed by the Federal Reserve, JPMorgan buys up shares at far below market value.September 2008 Lehman Brothers files for bankruptcy protection, becoming the first major bank to collapse since the start of the credit crisis.December 2008 Bernard Madoff arrested for operating the largest Ponzi scheme in history.January 2009 The Bank of England launches £200bn quantitative easing.March 2010 Former chairman of Anglo Irish bank Sean Fitzpatrick is arrested in Dublin after failing to disclose details of loans worth millions from the bank.April 2010 Northern Rock former directors, David Baker and Richard Barclay, are fined £504,000 and £140,000 for deliberately misleading analysts prior to nationalisation.April 2010 The US Securities and Exchange Commission accuses Goldman Sachs of "defrauding investors by misstating and omitting key facts".

Financial lessons from nature Financial lessons from nature Presentation Transcript

  • Financial lessons from nature
    “Systems thinking”, the growth of complexity and requirements for resilience
  • Fractal [self similar] systems
    Adaptive cycles are the foundation of both natural ecological and human socio-economic systems, and have been investigated independently from very different perspectives by ecologists and financial analysts who, until some “thought leadership” from the highest levels within Bank of England, had almost certainly never collaborated.
    It is interesting then to look at the strong correspondence of the self-similar hierarchical patterns, best described as fractals, which emerge from both fields. This form of organisation seems to be a fundamental dynamic in many areas.
  • Growth phase
    During the growth phase the system finds an abundance of resources available. Expansion and exploration of new opportunities are key concepts within this stage. “When new ecological spaces open up – due, for instance, to forest fires, or retreating glaciers, or many other things- resources needed for other species to grow are made available. There’s more light reaching the soil surface when large trees are toppled, or burned to the ground, for example.”
  • Conservation [consolidation) phase
    “The "r" phase is transitory, and as the system matures, it is replaced by the K phase. Eventually slower growing, long lived species or entities enter the system. Resources become less widely available as they become “locked up”… The K phase is sometimes called the conservation phase, because energy acquired goes into maintaining or conserving existing structure, rather than building new structure. In this phase, a few dominant species or companies or countries … have acquired many of the resources and are controlling the way they can be used.”
  • Release phase
    “Often systems rapidly pass into a phase called omega. This is also referred to as the release (or creative destruction) phase because structure, relationships, capital or complexity accumulated during the r and K phases is released (often in a dramatic or abrupt fashion). … Plants may die … or a company may go bankrupt, releasing workers and decommissioning factories or offices.”
  • Reorganisation phase
    “The fourth, or alpha phase, is a period of reorganisation, in which some of the entities previously released begin to re-structure but not necessarily as they were before. This phase can mark the beginning of another trip through an adaptive cycle … Many new entities may enter the system, and innovation becomes more probable.” 
  • Nested adaptive cycles: in nature and economy
    Adaptive cycles do not exist in isolation. Local ecosystem cycles are embedded in larger and slower-moving regional cycles operating over years and decades, which are in turn part of global climate and elemental cycles (carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus etc.) that may unfold over centuries or millennia.
    These larger cycles can act as stabilising factors by adding a 'memory effect', or wealth reservoir, enabling rapid regeneration following a localized setback, but only if the larger cycle is not in its own contraction and reorganisation phase.
    In addition to being part of larger cycles, dynamic ecosystems are also composed of smaller and faster-moving cycles of growth and decay, operating on much shorter time horizons. This nested set of self-similar structures allows for both persistence and innovation.
    "We had the complete collapse of a model based on consumer spending, a housing bubble, an overweight banking system - three banks, each of them with a balance sheet larger than the British economy.
    "It was a disaster waiting to happen and it did happen. It has done profound damage and it is damage that is going to last a long time."
    Vince Cable, Business Secretary
  • The “butterfly effect” and the nature of systemic risk
    We have become very accomplished at assessing and managing many risks i.e. the potential for losses arising from events that we have past experience of.
    But our lack of experience in dealing with the “emerging risks” and uncertainties of non-linear systems has already been demonstrated by the collapse of global banking and a succession of natural disasters.
    The ability to apply lessons learnt, from the behaviour of complex natural systems to the, Globally inter-connected, dynamic [non-linear] business systems now exists .
    Our awareness of the nature and cost of “low probability, high impact “[Black Swan] events illustrate the need to build resilient systems and networks that rely upon inter-connectedness for their survival. Otherwise the characteristics of fragile, self-similar, systems are communicated [butterfly effect] to those connected to it …failure can lead to sudden collapse across domains…
    Collapse, if and when it comes again, will this time be global. No longer can any individual nation collapse. World civilization will disintegrate as a whole. Competitors who evolve as peers collapse in like manner.  J Tainter
  • "It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change."
    Charles Darwin
  • The complexity of inter-connectedness can be plainly seen in every area of modern life – this map shows UK internet density.
    But interdependence is a feature of the most successful and resilient systems: ecological; biological; societal; economic.
    Inter-connectedness is the conduit for risk and uncertainty that are generated and communicated among systems and across networks.
    We define resilience, formally, as the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganise while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure and feedbacks - and therefore the same “functionality”.
    Resilience: amid growing complexity
  • Assessing the health of a business system [SME]
    “Imagine assessing the robustness of the electricity grid with data on power stations but not on the power lines connecting them”
    But that is, essentially, what we do by sampling the type of information used for Accounting purposes - shown (right).
    It serves as a means to benchmark against past or peer performance – although data can be 12 (or more) months old and is subject to manipulation to achieve a specific outcome – but fails to inform as to the “health” of the system…
    …vital information for:
    a company owner
    a firm involved in “risk transfer”
    suppliers or customers
    establishing a resilient economy!
  • Characteristics of a Highly Complex Business or System
    Difficult to manage
    Highly exposed
    Vulnerable
    Unhealthy
    Fragile
    Unsustainable
  • What’s in a name – a logo – a brand?…what goes around comes around
    You don’t have to be BIG, bent, bad at business or just plain greedy to get things wrong or to suffer from unforeseen circumstances …ALTHOUGH it doesn’t help!
    It hurts. Many people have suffered and will continue to do so for some time but…
    what have WE learnt?
    what have THEY learnt?
    what chance real CHANGE?
    what price TRANSPARENCY?
  • …the dynamic systems of the new modernity are non-linear and, therefore, IMPOSSIBLE to measure and manage utilising conventional tools.
    Creator
    User
    SYSTEM owners are accountable to STAKEHOLDERS across the ECOSYSTEM, including supply chain PARTNERS and inter-connected NETWORKS . SHARING the responsibility to deliver SUSTAINABLE CUSTOMER VALUE. TRANSPARENCY is the foundation for the TRUST required for a truly INTERDEPENDENT system.
  • Ontonix UK
    Contact:
    David G Wilson, CEO
    m. + 44 (0) 7919 917150
    e. david@ontonix.com
    w. www.ontonix.com
     
    Want to connect with me on Linkedin? http://www.linkedin.com/in/davidlongshanks
    Webpage and blog:
    Credit: Much of the inspiration and content for this presentation came from the analysis of Buzz Hollings’ work by: http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com
    Ontonix UK Ltd. Registered number: SC380992. Registered office: The C'a'doro, 45 Gordon Street, Glasgow, G1 3PE