Unit 4 4 The Election Process

The Election Process Running for President and for Congress

“ Running for President”
The formal campaign has 3 stages:
The Nomination
The Convention
The General Election

The Nomination
Stage 1
THE NOMINATION - when running for President, you must first win the nomination of your party before you can get on the ballot.
Our political system has two major parties: the democrats and the republicans.
The decision of when to start campaigning varies. Early decisions are increasingly necessary.

The Nomination
How do you get on the ballot if you want to run?
Primaries- elections within the party to choose favorite candidate from that party.
Open primary- any registered voter can vote Texas has an open primary system
Closed primary- only declared party members can vote- it discourages raiding.
Wide open primary (Alaska and Washington)-no parties are listed on the ballot.

The Nomination
Mounting a Primary Campaign:
The first step is to build a personal organization (getting to know people, serving in civic causes, helping other candidates)
Next step-hire managers , buy TV ads, conduct polls, raise money (difficult before you win the nomination of the party)
A candidate’s main hurdle is gaining visibility -to be mentioned in the media. Candidates rely on hand shaking and door-to-door campaigning.

The Nomination
Caucuses- Still exists in some states (Iowa) is a key caucus state.
Voters in Iowa ( caucus ) and New Hampshire ( primary ) bask in media attention because they cast their ballots first this has the effect of limiting choices of other voters in states who hold their primaries later in the process.

Evaluating the Primary/Caucus System
 Disproportionate attention goes to the early caucuses and primaries -neither state is truly representative of the country (both rural, small minority populations, Iowa is more liberal than nation as a whole).
 Primaries cause disunity within the party
 Prominent politicians find it hard time wise to leave their duties to run for office.
 Money plays a gigantic role - early quitters were unable to raise money quick enough.

Evaluating the Primary/Caucus System
 Participation is low and unrepresentative -50% vote in November, 20% in primaries, less in caucuses because of time spent attending the caucus, so 5% in caucus-except for Iowa.
 System gives too much power to the media -media have replaced the party bosses-deciding who has the momentum at any given moment-the press labels winners and losers.

Should we keep the primaries?
FOR Keeping the Primaries
The main argument FOR primaries is that they open the nominating process to more voters than do caucus or convention methods.
We can judge a candidates abilities to organize a campaign, communicate through the media, stand up against pressure, avoid making mistakes, adjust their appeals to shifting events, and different regions.

The Nomination
Nomination by Petition- It is possible to get on the ballots without a party backing you.
John Anderson and Ross Perot met the state petition requirements and filing fees to earn their way onto the ballots
In some states, you need as few as 200 signatures to get on the ballot.
In other states, you need as many as 3% of the registered voters-in Washington State, that meant 72,784 voters.

Party Unity…

The Nomination
How do they determine who wins the primaries?
Winner-Takes-All – the candidate with the most votes wins. The winner doesn’t necessarily need a majority.
In a multi-candidate race, the winner may have only a plurality , (simply more than the other candidates.
In Texas, and ONLY IN PRIMARIES , we have a run-off election when no candidate gets a clear majority.
(two top vote getters run against each other to find the majority winner)!

Let’s look at the results of the primaries of 2008
Democrats on the wall
Republicans

Party Unity… Reunification after the Primaries

Party Unification
Primaries tend to be a fierce political battle between opponents from the same party.
To bring about party unity, losers from the primary speak during the convention, putting their support to the winning candidate.
2000 and 1992 RNC

Stage 2 “THE CONVENTION”

REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION

National Party Conventions- Historically, delegates arrived at the convention with differing degrees of commitment to candidates. Some were pledged to no candidate, others to a specific candidate.
Network TV coverage of the major conventions were reduced to a few hours of prime time because viewer-ship has been down compared to previous years.
THE CONVENTION

THE CONVENTION
1st day is devoted to the keynote address and other speeches talking up the party.

Clinton in ‘88

Barack Obama in 2004

Giuliani and Warner in 2008

The Convention
2nd day is devoted to committee reports and rules and the party platform .
The Platform is made up of planks (issues) put together that spell out where the party stands on the issues. The platform is not binding and is more likely to hurt a candidate than help him or her.

REPUBLICAN PLATFORM 2000
Renewing America's Purpose. Together. Preamble The American Dream: Prosperity With a Purpose Old Truths For The New Economy The Republican Congress Taxes And Budget: Render to Caesar, But Let The People Keep Their Own Homeownership Small Business: Where Prosperity Starts Work Place of the Future Trade: The Force Of Economic Freedom Technology And The New Economy: The Force For Change Privacy and Secure Technologies Education and Opportunity: Leave No American Behind

The Convention
The 4th day choosing the running mate , and accepting the nomination.
The Vice Presidential Nominee - more often the choice is made before the convention, the announcement is timed to enhance the media.
Sarah Palin, McCain’s choice in ‘08 was made to energize the McCain campaign, which it did!

The Convention
Traditionally, the candidate will try to balance the ticket if candidate is from small state, pick someone from a big state. If candidate is from North, pick a southern running mate, if conservative, pick someone liberal.
Mondale picked the 1st woman in 1984, Geraldine Ferraro -they did not win.
Bush senior did poorly with women and baby boomer voters, so he picked Quayle.
Bill Clinton and Al Gore do not represent a balanced ticket.

Stage 3: THE GENERAL ELECTION
Most voters vote on the basis of party and candidate appeal .
The Media and Image - Candidates devote a ton of attention to defining themselves positively and the opposition negatively. The media plays a big role in allowing this to happen.

Stage 3: THE GENERAL ELECTION Presidential Debates- TV debates are now a major feature of the elections. The 1960 debate of Nixon and JFK was famous because it elevated the role of TV in our politics.

Stage 3: THE GENERAL ELECTION
The debates of 1992 generated a large viewing audience.
This debate did not change people’s minds though.
Most debates usually just reinforce people’s attitudes .

The Electoral College
Each state is free to determine how its electors are selected.
Electors are usually long time party workers.
They are expected to vote for their party’s candidate.
Each state gets and electoral number based on number of representatives and senators your state gets.
Texas has 32 representatives and 2 Senators, thus 34.

Bush Lead in 2000 Gore lead in 2000
These were the toss-up states in 2000

The Electoral College:
The candidate, who wins a plurality of the popular vote, gets all electoral votes of that state.
The winning electors go their state capital on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December to cast their vote.
The ballots are sent to Congress early in January and Congress formally counts the ballots and declares the winner.
If no candidate gets the 270 needed, the House chooses the President and the Senate chooses the VP
Which Congress will select the new President, the outgoing Congress or the incoming Congress?
Each state only gets one vote, what if the state’s delegation can not agree on a candidate?

Election 2004 Blue States-Democrat Red-Republican

Most electoral rules remain matters of state law - but every 2 years there is a Congressional election, every 4 years, a Presidential election.
Elections for members of Congress and the President occur the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November on even numbered years. (in the Constitution)

Running for Congress
Most office holders have “ Safe seats ”- little competition, no need to fight for seat.
Either will be uncontested or with no serious competition

Most Congressional elections are NOT close.
Incumbents enjoy a fund-raising advantage and there is often little competition.
(name recognition)

Campaigning for the General Election
Incumbent campaigns
Since 1970, over 95% of incumbents in the House have won, they outspend their challengers 3 to 1.
Senate incumbents outspend their challengers 2 to 1.
The following things lend to incumbent advantage:
Franking privilege (large staff, use of mail).
Name recognition
Media contacts
Doing favors, building constituent trust.
Open Seat Campaigns
No incumbent is running, it is an open seat. This sets up a competitive election again

It is common for the President’s party to lose seats in Congress in the midterm-election
Election in which there is no Presidential election.
Republicans lost a lot of seats in 2006
(Bush was re-elected in 2004)
Democrats lost a lot of seats in 1994
(Clinton was elected in 1992)

The coattail effect can have a positive effect for candidates for both House and Senate.
Created by straight ticket voting
Strong candidate at the top of the ballot will pull in votes for bottom of ticket.
Bush in 2000
Obama in 2008???

The House of Representatives
Every 2 years, all 435 are up for election
usually that includes about 400 incumbents!
All House members up for election every two years, leading to perpetual campaigning.

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=28

Congressional Elections
Who Wins Elections?
Incumbents : Those already holding office (running for re-election), especially in the HOUSE.
Most win by more than 60% of the vote
Figure 12.1

Turnover Rates in the House – When incumbent decide to retire, or seek other office, the seat becomes open. Open seats will allow for women and minorities to gain an opening
Redistricting (redrawing the district lines) every ten years forces incumbents to run in a new district.
Many Republicans will retire in 2008, due to new status as minority party

Other things you should know…
Reapportionment
done every 10 years after the Census.
Reshuffling the power in the House based on a population change
Will occur next (2012) after next census in 2010

North Carolina-12 th District Eligible voters-412,000 Black-53.3% White 46.7% Why would North Carolina draw a district in this shape? Which party do you think was in control of North Carolina’s state legislature? What are the consequences of gerrymandering?

Other things you should know…
Redistricting
the majority party in the STATE legislature redraws CONGRESSIONAL district lines.
Sometimes they get GERRYMANDERED
giving them an advantage politically!

How redistricting might look: Mystery state A: 60% Rep and 40% Dem

Version A--three safe Rep districts

Version B--two safe Rep, one safe Dem district 1 2 3

You live in Congressional District #31 - Your Representatives name is John Carter (R)

The Senate
big-time politics, competition is intense, the costs are in the millions.
Senate candidates have to raise a lot of money, get people involved, and make as many personal contacts as possible.
Senate candidates are much more visible.
Senators also lose races more often than Representatives

Staggered terms – not all offices up for election at the same time.
1/3 of the Senators are up for election at the same time http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=28
The 35 Senate seats up for election in 2008

Unlimited Terms!!!
Proposals for term limitations have repeatedly lost when they have come to a vote in Congress in recent sessions.
The Court (5-4) declared that states have no power to impose limits on the number of terms for which its members of the U.S. Congress are eligible (would need an amendment)
The 22nd amendment limits the president’s term to two terms (1951)

Pop Quiz!!! Get out a blank sheet of paper (you can use your notes) Don’t forget there is a TEST next class!!!

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/
http://www.presidentelect.org/index.html

How would you vote if the Democratic primary for President was tomorrow?
http://racerelations.about.com/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?site=http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm

How would you vote if the Republican primary for President was tomorrow?
http://racerelations.about.com/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?site=http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm

Who’s running in 2008?
http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008-presidential-candidates/

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Unit 4 4 The Election Process

by David Osman on Jul 10, 2008

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Unit 4 4 The Election Process — Presentation Transcript