Some posible futures of e-learning: Lessons and Enablers David Jones
Overview Context Current Practice Possible Futures Lessons Enablers
Context: Who am I <ul><li>Kiersey architect </li></ul><ul><li>Ex-IS academic </li></ul><ul><li>Head of E-Learning & Materi...
Glass half empty http://flickr.com/photos/aviatordave/7007033/
Context: E-Learning? <ul><li>the use of information and communications technology to support and enhance learning and teac...
Context: Benfits <ul><li>It can be demonstrated that the use of  new technologies  can provide  benefits  by  improving  t...
Context: Determinism #1 <ul><li>… the  relationship  between  educational progress  and  technological innovation  is one ...
Context: Determinism #2 <ul><li>For both research and practice, an appreciation of the complex and  unpredictable  dynamic...
Overview Context Current Practice Possible Futures Lessons Enablers
Overview Context Current Practice Possible Futures Lessons Enablers
Overview Context Possible Futures Lessons Enablers Current Practice
Overview Context Lessons Enablers Current Practice Possible Futures
Context http://scottmcleod.typepad.com/dangerouslyirrelevant/2007/01/gone_fischin.html
How did I find this Blog post pointed me to
 
Which I tagged on  del.icio.us
<ul><ul><li>Which I re-found when preparing for this talk </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>And found this remix </li></ul></ul>
<ul><ul><li>Where I got the movie </li></ul></ul>
<ul><ul><li>And added the blog to my feeds </li></ul></ul>
<ul><ul><li>Actually, that's a lie </li></ul></ul>
Where are we? Context Possible Futures Lessons Enablers Current Practice
T2, 2006 - CQU On-line #1 <ul><li>427 online courses (71.2% of courses) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>121 Webfuse </li></ul></ul><...
T2, 2006 - CQU On-line #2 <ul><li>60% had discussion board </li></ul><ul><ul><li>62% Bb, 59% Wf  Avg: .93 posts/student </...
Elsewhere? <ul><li>Best practice implementations report no more than 55% staff adoption rates </li></ul>Sausner, R. (2005)...
Elsewhere? Allen, I.E. and J. Seaman (2005). Growing by Degrees: Online Education in the  United States, 2005. Needham, MA...
Elsewhere? <ul><li>Universities have not employed technology to the same degree or effect as the business community  </li>...
Overview Context Current Practice Possible Futures Enablers Lessons
Lessons <ul><li>Universities as a business </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Misguided transplantation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>People a...
University as a business <ul><li>Declining revenues  and public support … coupled with  increased competition, performance...
But what type of business? http://flickr.com/photos/joelip/403947420/ http://flickr.com/photos/monceau/134884500/ http://f...
What type of business? <ul><li>Two aspects…create the  special management challenges  of the  professional service firm . ...
What type of business? <ul><li>Management  principles  and approaches  from the industrial or mass-consumer sectors , base...
Lessons <ul><li>Universities as a business </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Misguided transplantation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>People a...
People are changing <ul><li>Our  students have changed radically . Today’s students are no longer the people our education...
People are changing <ul><li>For the first time in history  children are more comfortable, knowledgeable, and literate than...
Can you hear this? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teen_Buzz
http://www.educause.edu/content.asp?PAGE_ID=5989&bhcp=1
Some disagreement <ul><li>… young people..are.. claiming greater online self-efficacy  and skills than…their parents  (Liv...
More complex continuum <ul><li>Per tool brakedown </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Digital Voyeur  Knowing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li...
Literacy Everyone Everyone Programmers Priests, wealthy, educated Specialised technicians Scribes Programming Writing
Literacy http://techrepublic.com.com/5100-10878_11-5053961.html Everyone Everyone Programmers Priests, wealthy, educated S...
Lessons <ul><li>Universities as a business </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Misguided transplantation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>People a...
How do you design? <ul><li>You have won a holiday to China and Russia </li></ul><ul><li>You have  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>30...
 
 
Design extremes Lucas Introna (1996). &quot;Notes on ateleological information systems development.&quot;  Information Tec...
Evolution of IT planning http://www.educause.edu/er/erm05/erm0522.asp?bhcp=1  Focus on sensing, not planning  Modular in...
Does teleological work? <ul><li>If a  major project  is  truly innovative , you  cannot  possibly  know  its  exact cost  ...
Lessons <ul><li>Universities as a business </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Misguided transplantation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>People a...
Learning &quot;Orthodoxy&quot; <ul><li>Behaviourist </li></ul><ul><li>Cognitivist </li></ul><ul><li>Constructivist </li></ul>
Connectivism <ul><li>At its heart, connectivism is the thesis that  knowledge is distributed across a network of connectio...
Overview Context Current Practice Possible Futures Lessons Enablers
Enablers <ul><li>Web 2.0 - the read/write web </li></ul><ul><li>Software as a service </li></ul><ul><li>3D worlds </li></u...
http://flickr.com/photos/kosmar/62381076/
Watch the video <ul><li>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsa5ZTRJQ5w The boring version </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.youtube...
The Challenge <ul><li>Streaming of CQU 2007 T&L Showcase </li></ul><ul><li>http://learning.cqu.edu.au/showcase2007/cqu_pre...
Enablers <ul><li>Web 2.0 - the read/write web </li></ul><ul><li>Software as a service </li></ul><ul><li>3D worlds </li></u...
 
Up the abstraction layer
Enablers <ul><li>Web 2.0 - the read/write web </li></ul><ul><li>Software as a service </li></ul><ul><li>3D worlds </li></u...
Second Life
Enablers <ul><li>Web 2.0 - the read/write web </li></ul><ul><li>Software as a service </li></ul><ul><li>3D worlds </li></u...
Everything is open <ul><li>Three rules  (Polese, 2004)  :  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Nobody owns it  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><l...
CQU site #2
Produce/consumer
Students as co-producers <ul><li>Romantic Audience Project </li></ul><ul><li>http://ssad.bowdoin.edu:9780/snipsnap/eng242-...
Scarcity and changes <ul><li>Lecture -- scarce books </li></ul><ul><ul><li>&quot;action of reading, that which is read&quo...
The long tail
CQU's Long Tail
Scarcity - enrolment <ul><li>IT and the network makes it  possible to serve the long tail </li></ul><ul><li>Though practic...
Overview Context Current Practice Lessons Enablers Possible Futures
Possible futures <ul><li>Greater use of SaaS </li></ul><ul><li>Significantly  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>greater ease-of-use </...
What do you think?
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Some possible futures of e-learning: Lessons and Enablers

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A bit of crystal ball gazing about the factors that might influence the future of e-learning.

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  • Some additional resources are available on this page (http://cq-pan.cqu.edu.au/david-jones/Publications/Presentations/PossibleFutures/) and there is also a
    wiki page (http://eros.cqu.edu.au/index.php/PossibleFutures) that lists the resources/links used in the presentation (including the movies).
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Some possible futures of e-learning: Lessons and Enablers

  1. 1. Some posible futures of e-learning: Lessons and Enablers David Jones
  2. 2. Overview Context Current Practice Possible Futures Lessons Enablers
  3. 3. Context: Who am I <ul><li>Kiersey architect </li></ul><ul><li>Ex-IS academic </li></ul><ul><li>Head of E-Learning & Materials Development (aka CD&DU), DTLS </li></ul><ul><li>Lot's of e-learning </li></ul>http://flickr.com/photos/aviatordave/7007033/
  4. 4. Glass half empty http://flickr.com/photos/aviatordave/7007033/
  5. 5. Context: E-Learning? <ul><li>the use of information and communications technology to support and enhance learning and teaching in higher education institutions (HEIs) </li></ul>OECD (2005). E-Learning in Tertiary Education: Where do we stand? Paris, France, Centre for Educational Research and Innovation, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. http://new.sourceoecd.org/education/9264009205
  6. 6. Context: Benfits <ul><li>It can be demonstrated that the use of new technologies can provide benefits by improving the efficiency of existing practice (McCormack and Jones, 1997). However, Sproull and Kiesler (1991) argue that the most significant effects of new technologies come from enabling previously impossible practices . </li></ul>David Jones, Emergent Development and the Virtual University, Learning'2000, Roanoke, Virginia http://cq-pan.cqu.edu.au/david-jones/Publications/Papers_and_Books/Learning_2000/
  7. 7. Context: Determinism #1 <ul><li>… the relationship between educational progress and technological innovation is one of mutual influence and implication , how it involves a range of other factors, and how technological &quot;progress&quot; can sometimes be stopped dead in its tracks … </li></ul>Norm Friesen, E-Learning Myth #2: Technology drives educational change http://learningspaces.org/myths/determinism.html
  8. 8. Context: Determinism #2 <ul><li>For both research and practice, an appreciation of the complex and unpredictable dynamic between technology and education implies an openness to users' appropriation and rejection of technology, and a healthy skepticism towards bold technological predictions or visions. </li></ul>Norm Friesen, E-Learning Myth #2: Technology drives educational change http://learningspaces.org/myths/determinism.html
  9. 9. Overview Context Current Practice Possible Futures Lessons Enablers
  10. 10. Overview Context Current Practice Possible Futures Lessons Enablers
  11. 11. Overview Context Possible Futures Lessons Enablers Current Practice
  12. 12. Overview Context Lessons Enablers Current Practice Possible Futures
  13. 13. Context http://scottmcleod.typepad.com/dangerouslyirrelevant/2007/01/gone_fischin.html
  14. 14. How did I find this Blog post pointed me to
  15. 16. Which I tagged on del.icio.us
  16. 17. <ul><ul><li>Which I re-found when preparing for this talk </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>And found this remix </li></ul></ul>
  17. 18. <ul><ul><li>Where I got the movie </li></ul></ul>
  18. 19. <ul><ul><li>And added the blog to my feeds </li></ul></ul>
  19. 20. <ul><ul><li>Actually, that's a lie </li></ul></ul>
  20. 21. Where are we? Context Possible Futures Lessons Enablers Current Practice
  21. 22. T2, 2006 - CQU On-line #1 <ul><li>427 online courses (71.2% of courses) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>121 Webfuse </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>326 Blackboard </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Issues </li></ul><ul><ul><li>8% had no student enrollments </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>11% effectively had no content </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Actually 56.7% courses had sites </li></ul>
  22. 23. T2, 2006 - CQU On-line #2 <ul><li>60% had discussion board </li></ul><ul><ul><li>62% Bb, 59% Wf Avg: .93 posts/student </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>9% make it assessable Avg: 3.2 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>11.6% used quizzes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>12.9% Bb, 10.7% Wf </li></ul></ul><ul><li>27% some form of oline submission </li></ul><ul><ul><li>19% Bb, 48% Wf </li></ul></ul><ul><li>10% use ICT enabled group work </li></ul><ul><ul><li>13% Bb, 2% Wf </li></ul></ul>
  23. 24. Elsewhere? <ul><li>Best practice implementations report no more than 55% staff adoption rates </li></ul>Sausner, R. (2005). Course Management: Ready for prime time? University Business . http://universitybusiness.com/page.cfm?p=791
  24. 25. Elsewhere? Allen, I.E. and J. Seaman (2005). Growing by Degrees: Online Education in the United States, 2005. Needham, MA, The Sloan Consortium 42.1% 28.8% Private, for-profit 20.6% 20.2% Private, non-profit 36.4% 34.2% Public 2005 2003 Institution
  25. 26. Elsewhere? <ul><li>Universities have not employed technology to the same degree or effect as the business community </li></ul>Piccoli, G., R. Ahmad, et al. (2000). &quot;Knowledge management in academia: A proposed framework.&quot; Information Technology and Management 1: 229-245
  26. 27. Overview Context Current Practice Possible Futures Enablers Lessons
  27. 28. Lessons <ul><li>Universities as a business </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Misguided transplantation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>People are changing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Perhaps </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Teleological and ateleological design </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Autism in IT and organisational practice </li></ul></ul><ul><li>There are many learning theories </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Challenging the cognitivist/constructivist orthodoxy </li></ul></ul>
  28. 29. University as a business <ul><li>Declining revenues and public support … coupled with increased competition, performance requirements, constituent accountability, globalization and changing political climates . All of this has forced a new reality for higher education … one that requires greater efficiency, effectiveness and business-like processes . </li></ul>David Dodd (2004) Decisions, data and the universities as a business. College Planning & Management http://www.allbusiness.com/management/148850-1.html
  29. 30. But what type of business? http://flickr.com/photos/joelip/403947420/ http://flickr.com/photos/monceau/134884500/ http://flickr.com/photos/sherlock77/318280666/
  30. 31. What type of business? <ul><li>Two aspects…create the special management challenges of the professional service firm . First… a high degree of customization in their work … Second, … strong component of face-to-face interaction with the client </li></ul>David Maister. (1993). Managing the Professional Service Firm. The Free Press.
  31. 32. What type of business? <ul><li>Management principles and approaches from the industrial or mass-consumer sectors , based..on standardization, supervision, and marketing of repetitive tasks.. are not only inapplicable … but may be dangerously wrong . </li></ul>David Maister. (1993). Managing the Professional Service Firm. The Free Press.
  32. 33. Lessons <ul><li>Universities as a business </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Misguided transplantation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>People are changing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Perhaps </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Teleological and ateleological design </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Autism in IT and organisational practice </li></ul></ul><ul><li>There are many learning theories </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Challenging the cognitivist/constructivist orthodoxy </li></ul></ul>
  33. 34. People are changing <ul><li>Our students have changed radically . Today’s students are no longer the people our educational system was designed to teach. </li></ul>Marc Prensky (2001). Digital Natives, Digital Immigrants . On the Horizon . 9(5) http://www.marcprensky.com/writing/
  34. 35. People are changing <ul><li>For the first time in history children are more comfortable, knowledgeable, and literate than their parents about an innovation central to their society. And it is through the use of the digital media that the N-Generation will develop and superimpose its culture on the rest of society” </li></ul>Don Tapscott (1997) Growing up Digital: The Rise of the Net Generation, McGraw-Hill
  35. 36. Can you hear this? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teen_Buzz
  36. 37. http://www.educause.edu/content.asp?PAGE_ID=5989&bhcp=1
  37. 38. Some disagreement <ul><li>… young people..are.. claiming greater online self-efficacy and skills than…their parents (Livingstone, Bober & Helsper, 2005) . … do not take these claims at face value , and universalize them to youth in general. Instead.. the complex skills needed to effectively utilize the Internet are distributed not only by age, but also by “gender and socio-economic status” (Livingstone, Bober & Helsper, 2005) . </li></ul>Norm Friesen, E-Learning Myth #1: The &quot;Net Gen&quot; Myth http://ipseity.blogsome.com/2006/08/14/p36/ Sonia Livingstone, Magdalena Bober & Ellen Helsper (2005), Active participation or just more information? Information, Communication and Society 8(3): 287-314
  38. 39. More complex continuum <ul><li>Per tool brakedown </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Digital Voyeur Knowing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Digital Immigrant Participating </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Digital Native Living </li></ul></ul>Christopher Harris(2006). Knowing | Particpating | Living, http://schoolof.info/informancy/?p=159
  39. 40. Literacy Everyone Everyone Programmers Priests, wealthy, educated Specialised technicians Scribes Programming Writing
  40. 41. Literacy http://techrepublic.com.com/5100-10878_11-5053961.html Everyone Everyone Programmers Priests, wealthy, educated Specialised technicians Scribes Programming Writing
  41. 42. Lessons <ul><li>Universities as a business </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Misguided transplantation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>People are changing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Perhaps </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Teleological and ateleological design </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Autism in IT and organisational practice </li></ul></ul><ul><li>There are many learning theories </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Challenging the cognitivist/constructivist orthodoxy </li></ul></ul>
  42. 43. How do you design? <ul><li>You have won a holiday to China and Russia </li></ul><ul><li>You have </li></ul><ul><ul><li>30 days </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>All the money you need </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Your choice how to use both </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What do you do? </li></ul>
  43. 46. Design extremes Lucas Introna (1996). &quot;Notes on ateleological information systems development.&quot; Information Technology & People 9(4): 20-39 Rules/regulators Master plan Control Decentralised Centralised Management Time Complexity/conflict Problems Local adaptation Problem solving Process Whole Part Scope Participant Explicit designer Designers Means/process Ends/results Design focus Homeostasis Effect/Efficiency Intermediate goals Harmony Goal/purpose Ultimate purpose Ateleological Teleological Attributes
  44. 47. Evolution of IT planning http://www.educause.edu/er/erm05/erm0522.asp?bhcp=1  Focus on sensing, not planning  Modular infrastructure  Rapid execution  Close bus. and IT cooperation Just-in-time 2000s Adaptive organisation  Set direction  Build infrastr.  Small components delivered quickly  Joint bus and IT planning Short-term 1990s Iterative planning  Set vision  Less specificity  Project-based execution  Alignment of IT/bus. planning Medium-term 1980s Strategic planning  Detailed plans  Large docs  Not much action  Separate bus. and IT planning Long-term 1970s Big planning Characteristics Focus When Planning style
  45. 48. Does teleological work? <ul><li>If a major project is truly innovative , you cannot possibly know its exact cost and its exact schedule at the beginning. And if in fact you do know the exact cost and the exact schedule, chances are that the technology is obsolete </li></ul>`Fly Me to the Moon: An Interview with Joseph G. Gavin, Jr.'', Technology Review , 97:5, July, 1994, Page 62. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joVTR-nUoPg
  46. 49. Lessons <ul><li>Universities as a business </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Misguided transplantation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>People are changing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Perhaps </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Teleological and ateleological design </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Autism in IT and organisational practice </li></ul></ul><ul><li>There are many learning theories </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Challenging the cognitivist/constructivist orthodoxy </li></ul></ul>
  47. 50. Learning &quot;Orthodoxy&quot; <ul><li>Behaviourist </li></ul><ul><li>Cognitivist </li></ul><ul><li>Constructivist </li></ul>
  48. 51. Connectivism <ul><li>At its heart, connectivism is the thesis that knowledge is distributed across a network of connections , and therefore that learning consists of the ability to construct and traverse those networks …. connectivism denies that knowledge is propositional . That is to say, these other theories are 'cognitivist', in the sense that they depict knowledge and learning as being grounded in language and logic. </li></ul>http://halfanhour.blogspot.com/2007/02/what-connectivism-is.html http://www.elearnspace.org/media/SituatingConnectivism/player.html
  49. 52. Overview Context Current Practice Possible Futures Lessons Enablers
  50. 53. Enablers <ul><li>Web 2.0 - the read/write web </li></ul><ul><li>Software as a service </li></ul><ul><li>3D worlds </li></ul><ul><li>Everything is open </li></ul>
  51. 54. http://flickr.com/photos/kosmar/62381076/
  52. 55. Watch the video <ul><li>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsa5ZTRJQ5w The boring version </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gmP4nk0EOE </li></ul><ul><li>The &quot;cultural&quot; approach </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.youtube.com/video_response_view_all?v=6gmP4nk0EOE </li></ul><ul><li>Responses </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EAVmB5dKZZ8 A nice response </li></ul><ul><li>http://mojiti.com/kan/2024/3668 Let's annotate it </li></ul>
  53. 56. The Challenge <ul><li>Streaming of CQU 2007 T&L Showcase </li></ul><ul><li>http://learning.cqu.edu.au/showcase2007/cqu_presentations.htm </li></ul><ul><li>A Web 2.0 solution </li></ul><ul><li>http://cq-pan.cqu.edu.au/david-jones/Publications/Presentations/missingPs/ </li></ul>
  54. 57. Enablers <ul><li>Web 2.0 - the read/write web </li></ul><ul><li>Software as a service </li></ul><ul><li>3D worlds </li></ul><ul><li>Everything is open </li></ul>
  55. 59. Up the abstraction layer
  56. 60. Enablers <ul><li>Web 2.0 - the read/write web </li></ul><ul><li>Software as a service </li></ul><ul><li>3D worlds </li></ul><ul><li>Everything is open </li></ul>
  57. 61. Second Life
  58. 62. Enablers <ul><li>Web 2.0 - the read/write web </li></ul><ul><li>Software as a service </li></ul><ul><li>3D worlds </li></ul><ul><li>Everything is open </li></ul>
  59. 63. Everything is open <ul><li>Three rules (Polese, 2004) : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Nobody owns it </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Everybody uses it </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Anybody can improve it </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Current examples </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Open source </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Open content </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Social software - Wikis, Blogs </li></ul></ul>http://creativecommons.org/
  60. 64. CQU site #2
  61. 65. Produce/consumer
  62. 66. Students as co-producers <ul><li>Romantic Audience Project </li></ul><ul><li>http://ssad.bowdoin.edu:9780/snipsnap/eng242-s05/space/start </li></ul>
  63. 67. Scarcity and changes <ul><li>Lecture -- scarce books </li></ul><ul><ul><li>&quot;action of reading, that which is read&quot; </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Textbooks -- scarce media </li></ul><ul><li>Face-to-face -- scarce time </li></ul><ul><li>Web -- abundance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Multiple points of entry </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Flexiblity through diverse sources </li></ul></ul>http://www.h-net.org/teaching/essays/mcclymer.html
  64. 68. The long tail
  65. 69. CQU's Long Tail
  66. 70. Scarcity - enrolment <ul><li>IT and the network makes it possible to serve the long tail </li></ul><ul><li>Though practices have to change </li></ul>Saul Fisher (2005) Long Tails in Higher Education http://www.insidehighered.com/views/2005/05/27/fisher
  67. 71. Overview Context Current Practice Lessons Enablers Possible Futures
  68. 72. Possible futures <ul><li>Greater use of SaaS </li></ul><ul><li>Significantly </li></ul><ul><ul><li>greater ease-of-use </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Different pedagogy and practice </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Course sites go away </li></ul><ul><li>Exploiting the &quot;long tail&quot;? </li></ul><ul><li>All content is open </li></ul><ul><li>Perpetual beta </li></ul>
  69. 73. What do you think?

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