The Death Of Advertising: Omexpo Madrid 2010

The death of advertising?
If you landed in a world without advertising today, would you reinvent it?
Ninety10Group.com

Who are we?
The 90:10 Group is a global business consultancy which helps brands and media owners deliver business innovation through social technologies
Jamie Burke (@jamie247) is its CEO. His background is in digital advertising, social media and as a digital entrepreneur.
David Cushman (@davidcushman) is MD with 20+ years experience in traditional and social media. He’s the author of The Power of the Network and the blog FasterFuture.blogspot.com

We’re here to tell you...
All media that is a growing media invites the user into its creation and distribution. It is a social media.
That which isn’t is slowly dying (becoming less relevant)
Advertising money has followed the users from broadcast media to these new and more social medias
So has the ineffective mass advertising model
In a peer-to-peer (P2P) world this is even less relevant
Social media actually offers the opportunity to form relationships between an organisation and its customers.
This creates new and more valuable opportunities for ALL parties (media owner, user and previously advertisers).
We’ll ask: If you landed in a world without advertising today, would you reinvent it? And if not what would replace it?

Why is it dying?
Economic
Media
Don’t be fooled economic problems are just exaggerating a bigger disruption in media

Socialisation of Media
Globally more time is spent with online than with any other media (IDC 2008)
This is now true in Spain, too (as of Feb 2010)
All Top 20 media online is social in some form...
It can be shared, commented on or has been created by users
Google’s search results are dominated by Wikipedia, blogs and increasingly Twitter. They now have launched Google Social Search.
Almost every website has a comment box
Every TV and radio show has an official Facebook Fanpage and many unofficial communities
News is reported faster via Twitter than by the BBC
More UGC video has been uploaded to YouTube in one year than has been broadcast by TV, globally, EVER
Almost every computer game in the last year released by major studios, has some kind of online multi-player and social element to it. MMOPRG Massively multiplayer online role-playing games has become a global billion dollar industry.

Ad money and method follows eyeballs..
Mass Market Advertising
Practices
Search
Online Ad
Formats
Traditional Broadcast
Media
(TV / Print)
Social Networks
Mobile?
But is the improvement more than increment?

The Best of Digital?
Even video combined with flash, still 97.4% waste

With Behavioural Targeting?
Industry CTR = 0.06% - 0.17% is low
Let’s be generous and call the average 0.12%
For every 1,000,000 Impressions that’s 12,000 Clicks
That’s 988,000 people who you spammed and 98% of the clients budget wasted.
Re-Targeting only improves this on average by max of 0.05%
(2009 offmaddissonave)
ValueClick report 98% of people leave a site without converting and the average user needs 7 different contact points before completing a purchase.
So you could argue you actually need 7 times the impressions.

Search?
On average, Adwords accounts will have a CTR of around 2%.
E-commerce sites might have an average around 6%.
Accounts where a company only bids on terms related to their trademark might have 15%.
In general Google AdSense generates around $2 and $3 CPM on an average with CTR – 1-5% (SEO World)
But Google don’t publish figures (why?)
Natural Search: Google and MSN just integrated social into their results so SEO and gaming the system will become secondary to real PEOPLE
by pasukaru76

The clever are socialising but not REALLY innovating..
Advertising such as PPC Remains?

Social Networks?
News Corp reports $203 Million Loss on MySpace Writedown (Aug 2009)
Twitter hasn’t made a penny.. Yet.
In 2010 Facebook will account for nearly one-quarter of all social network ad spending worldwide (Source Vitrue SRM Findings) and still only just broke even on August ’09
But that’s just ad money following eyeballs.
Value is still low with CTR on ads estimated to be between 0.01%-0.05% (Business Week)
As brands try to build communities on fan pages via Wall Posts it can raise to around 6.5%. There’s a clue in that.
But the only networks to make money are via virtual goods (VirtualTencent.com) 1 billion in 2009 (There is a clue in that too)

Mobile
Some people will currently pay for the privilege of content delivered to their handset but soon we will take this for granted. It will be expected.
Content will become increasingly user generated
Geo-targeting around UGC will increase CTR and CR but... Even Blyk failed
The only ones making real money are those selling ringtones ($750 million, CNN Money), games and Apps ($250 million in Dec 2009, Apple)
Apple’s App Store – hasn’t been about advertising. It’s delivered function, utility, fun and innovation

Insanity
We move from media to media and repeat the experiment of advertising.
The Tech gets better and better yet the experiment continues to fail.

This is not a blip
This is not cyclical – it is structural
The way information is created, published and distributed has changed.
The terms and conditions of the way you were able to engage with consumers have changed. Forever.
You can’t apply traditional advertising models to the social space.
What worked for mass media does not work in the peer to peer realm of social media – where people talk to each other...

Hugh McLeod: GapingVoid.com

1-Mar-10
16
Social Media: is everybody’s media
Digitally enabled peer-to-peer networks
From email and sms to Tuenti and Twitter
Distribution is by people to people
Content is by people to be shared with other people
POWER! It’s shifted from the centre to the edge – from you to them...

Where people have access to social media they use it. And they don’t stop
The more we talk to and hear from our friends, peers, people we trust, the less we need central authorities broadcasting a lowest common denominator version of events
Across Europe, the more people participate in social media, the less they consume broadcast media.
Global Time Spent on Social Media Sites is up 82% Year on Year (Nielsen)

A different animal: Then sheep, now wolves
Easy to herd
Hunt in Packs
By Bertoz
By Tambako

What worked in the old world won’t work in the new

YOU SPOKE THEY LISTENED

You were in control
You made the content
You distributed the content
You controlled the user experience

Who gets to control production of content now?

Anyone and everyone

Anyone and everyone
Who gets to control distribution of content now?

Anyone and everyone
Anyone and everyone

Anyone and everyone
Anyone and everyone
Who gets to control the user experience now?

Anyone and everyone
Anyone and everyone
Who gets to control the user experience now?
The user controls their own A-Z journey

EVERYONEIS AN ADVERTISER NOW

We are in the world of the ever lengthening long tail

You can’t buy space in conversations
They can
Here’s how
http://flickr.com/photos/caribb/

You can’t target every community of purpose.
They can
Here’s how

THESTAGE
Message broadcast at audience
Scale = audience = where the eyeballs have gone

THE STAGE
But in social networks the broadcast message doesn’t arrive

They aren’t looking
at The Stage.
They are looking
at each other
Scale = lots of communities of purpose = where the eyeballs are focused

They share messages among
their groups.
They adapt them to suit theirgroups
They make the message theirs
We share what we think is good with people who (we think) will think its good, too

The groups are not fixed (adhoc).
The message spreads when the
groups reform around a new purpose
Users select what they think is cool (has utility) to take with them on theirjourney

Participants adapt
the message
to suit the group
they wish to share it with
The people best-placed to adapt the message are in the group, not on the stage

And so it continues; the
message evolving to
survive. Or it dies out
We share what we think is cool. That which we co-create, we embrace

They aren’t your groups,
they are theirs.
They aren’t your messages,
they are theirs
Marketing is not done to them, it is done by them

So, if everyone is an advertiser now...
Where does that leave you?
What is your role?
What would you do if you were parachuted in to Planet Now?
By Satane

What if your role isn’t...

To control who makes content

To control distribution
By STP243

To control distribution
To control the user experience
By: mattimattila/

What then?
If it is not to control who makes content
If it is not to control distribution
If it is not to control the user experience
What is the role of advertising, then?
If it’s going to survive then it’s going to have to adapt.

The Market Development Cycle
Indefinitely Elastic Period
Main Street
(Declining)
Main Street
(Early)
Fault Line
End of Life
Chasm
Technology Adoption Life Cycle

The advertising opportunity:
Experiential
Marketing
Revenue Growth
Process
Business Model
Structural
Product
Application
Time
Disruptive
Disruptive

We asked 90:10 consultants: What replaces ads?
Interesting content and services and the means to see what those around you are doing, thinking & getting excited about – Mark Earls (author Herd)
A network of active and (usually) passive recommendations – Luke Brynley-Jones – organiser Monitoring Social Media
Long term relationship and advocacy building. Nothing advertises better than buying the same thing again and telling your friends you like it Dr Chris Thorpe – Developer Advocate The Guardian, advisor to UK Government on open data
The tour de France – designed to sell newspapers ,says it all – Alan Moore, Author Communities Dominate Brands
1. Transparency of Offering (allowing crystal clear understanding 2. Relevancy of Communication (not assumed but assured 3. Value of Incentive (not necessarily monetary 4. Ease of Interaction (enabling intuitive interaction) – Jonathan MacDonald: CEO JME

We have the greatest set of tools in history to connect people
Surely you don’t think we use them to harvest eyeballs?

We asked Twitter
Word of mouth – on and offline
Back to how people got the message out before the printing press – with steroids
Affinity, advocacy and influence
Engagement
Recommendations
Trust
Virtualgoods
The broadcasting of content and opinion
Commercial partnerships

Making a better message
Many of us default to thinking about ways we can make incremental improvements to the messaging or our targeting
It’s where innovation has focused.
It’s what technology has been deployed to respond to.

It’s an approach that fails
Bleeding edge tech doesn't = bleeding edge demand.
I’m old enough to remember Betamax.
Then there was Phillips CD-i – answering questions customers hadn’t asked
It tried to do too many things
Phillips added and added technical functions and spec.
The execs were convinced the market would lap it up.
But they forgot to ask what the user would find useful.

Who are you innovating for?
Often we innovate to make things better for ourselves.
Or to show off how technically clever we are (our spec's bigger than your spec!)

A technological arms race
Is this what much innovation in digital marketing has been about?
Sharper and sharper focus on tracking and responding to online behaviour - cleverer and cleverer tech, more and more spec.
All the better to serve the right ad at the right time...
All the innovation focused on building a better advert.
A technological arms race in pursuit of incremental improvements in quality or relevance of messages.

As many people in the supply chain of advertising as it could be?
Of course it’s useful to those in advertising, marketing, PR... but
What do other elements of the messaging supply chain want from digital innovation – from the best-ever way of connecting people?
Is a better advert what the manufacturers and service providers want from digital technology?
Is a better advert what 'consumers' want? (they’d like better info, of course, but is that all)?
Is it what media owners find most useful?
Who is that useful to?

Not a better message, better things
What if what we all actually want (manufacturers and service providers - customers, media owners too) is improvement in quality or relevance of products and services?
More potential 'customers' for advertising would find that useful.
So the role of advertising and marketing may just be in deploying your skills and relationships to improve the quality and relevance of products and services.
How do you innovate that using digital tools?

Become the platform
A platform organisation uses its available resources to find, connect and support those who share its Purpose.

This is not just an advertising solution
It’s about much more than message delivery, more even than behaviour changing
This is a solution for media, for consumers, and businesses
This is the future of the business of business
It is a solution for the way things get made and made better, for how services get created and how ideas get shared
It is the new way the world gets changed

Platform thinking
Organisations should be ‘enabling platforms’ – to bring people together to create outcomes they all care about.
Using technology creatively to bring people together to act delivers the most powerful consumer engagement there is:
That which we create, we embrace.
That which we create we advocate – to our peers.
Without peer-to-peer sharing there is NO distribution in social spaces.
Marketing and advertising agencies should use technology creatively to join their clients in building platforms.
Help those with shared purpose find each other, talk together, act together and improve what matters to them, together

Instead of this

Throw away your hammers; open your doors
In-the-silo design
Beyond the Silo
What you tell them they want
What they get
What they want
What they say they want

Or be a broken business
Inspired by Clay Shirky:
‘A screen that ships without a mouse, ships broken’)
Any business that runs without a comment box, is running brokenDoing business without being open to contribution, is the wrong model for the networked world:

Collaboration
Internal
External
Any business that fails to open up to the riches it could share in through the feedback loops and real-time collaboration the internet enables, is a business that is in peril - at risk of being disrupted and defeated by those that are.Next to those from the open future, it is broken.Don’t let yours be one of them.

We want to talk to you
Jamie Burke: +44 7590 488502
Jamie@ninety10group.com
David Cushman
+44 7736 353590
david@ninety10group.com
Picture by caese via Flickr

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The Death Of Advertising: Omexpo Madrid 2010

by david cushman on Mar 01, 2010

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The Death Of Advertising: Omexpo Madrid 2010 — Presentation Transcript