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A new era for specialist media

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The slides for the keynote I will present at SIPA 09 in London on Thursday Nov 19, 2009

The slides for the keynote I will present at SIPA 09 in London on Thursday Nov 19, 2009

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  • Things have changed now. This is a world in which information and its distribution is no longer controlled by a small number of people.So let’s start by understanding what we are dealing with... What is this thing they call social media?
  • Examples: person threatening to blog about the Huntingdon marriotWhen I was buying this laptop I was tweeting with my community to find out if the salesman was spinning me a yarn or doing me a good deal.Power.And that genie is out of the bottle. It ain’t going back.
  • The first thing you need to know about adapting to survive is that in order to survive in a landscape you have to live in it:So take the plunge, emerge with rudimentary legs and weak lungs and try to explore this new landscape.Take part, comment, blog, upload pictures on flickr, post on twitter. Participate.Eg not what the government’s director of digital engagement does.
  • How do we adapt how we deliver messaging? Start by understanding that it’s not the website, but the user, who is the destination now.
  • Angling and the 20K big community
  • One thing is certain – you have neither the time nor the money to tailor your messages or products for each ever increasing number of niches
  • If I can form a group of my own, unmediated by any central authority, why do I need (here’s a biggy) political parties for example– they served the lowest common denominator world of mass – The fact that groups can form at low cost around things they choose to act on means where-ever there is mediation there is a threat of disruption.Media, music distribution has already seen it. Advertising and marketing are experiencing it. Apple outsources customer service way beyond a call centre in another country – it outsources it to its customers.
  • For the way in which information is distributed
  • No, because in a digital world we can all sit down next to each other – we’re all sharing the global hotdesk – at a distance and velocity which was never possible offline.Think of stamp collecting. Huntingdon could have had one stamp collecting club. But most people weren’t interested in stamps in general – they had specific interests – Antiguan bird stamps, for example. The digital world enables that community of purpose to form and get value from that formation.
  • Technology doesn’t get interesting until it gets boring.If you want to know the future don’t look at what teenage boys are doing – look at what their mothers are doing.Change doesn’t become truly disruptive until everyone understands that they can form groups for the purposes they choose at very low cost.Then they will organise- and that will challenge every organisational status quo.Social media (networks) are the user-friendly interface for group forming – just as the telephone was for one to one communications.When the phone was still regarded as a bit freaky, it hadn’t changed the worldWhen a phone appeared on every desk – in every pocket – then the world changed – how we reported, how we bought and sold, how far we lived apart...When everyone and their mother is real-time connected then, the world will be seriously changed.If you think there has been a disruption so far – you really ain’t seen nothing yet.
  • Transcript

    • 1. A new era for specialist mediaDavid Cushman, MDNinety10group.com
    • 2. 10-Nov-09
      2
      Who am I?
      20+ years in media, advertising, marketing and organisational change
      Author of The Power of the Network
      Blog ranked world No7 for publishing, UK’s top 20 for marketing/advertising
      Invited to speak on the impact of social tech from New York to San Francisco (the valley, too) Cannes to Canada
      Helped Bauer/emap, Honda, Phillips, Sony-Ericsson, Gatwick Airport, Edge, UKBA, CWDC, DfT, Grey (London), MCBD, Digitas, RIOT/180, ThirdeyeT, Band&Brown, Gambling Compliance, The Met Police et al
      Trustee of UK charity Citizens Online
      MD of social tech consultancy 90:10
    • 3. 10-Nov-09
      3
      Context
    • 4. What’s changed? How to respond
      Content production, distribution and user experience is now in the hands of everyone. What does that mean for those who used to control all that – publishers.
      Why the internet-powered long tail of demand is a disaster for traditional broad mass media models but a huge opportunity for specialists.
      How fragmentation means you can never hope to target all emerging niche communities – and what you can do to engage them
      When nobody wants to pay for content and no one clicks on the ads why thinking of specialist content as 'social objects' can reveal where the ROI comes from.
    • 5. Out of control
      How content production, distribution and user experience is now in the hands of everyone - and what that means for publishers
    • 6. 10-Nov-09
      6
      A huge shift. From one - to many
      Image?
    • 7. 10-Nov-09
      7
      Everybody’s Media: Social Media
      Digitally enabled peer-to-peer networks
      From email and sms to Facebook and Twitter
      Distribution is by people to people
      Content is by people to be shared with other people
    • 8. 10-Nov-09
      8
      Everybody’s Media: Social Media
      Digitally enabled peer-to-peer networks
      From email and sms to Facebook and Twitter
      Distribution is by people to people
      Content is by people to be shared with other people
      POWER!
    • 9. 10-Nov-09
      9
      Power?
      Every hotel
      Every restaurant
      Every shop
      Everywhere…
      Filled with published critics
    • 10. We’re all publishers now
    • 11. 10-Nov-09
      11
      We’re all publishers now
      300m blogs globally
      73% of web users read blogs
      Facebook members now over 300m (from 120m a yr ago)
      Twitter has now exceeded 50m – up 49m in a year! (overtaken myspace in UK)
      More video added to YouTube in last year than broadcast by TV EVER!
      The revolution is speeding up...
    • 12. 10-Nov-09
      12
      Peer to peer interaction
      The most powerful behaviour changer there is
      We do what others like us do
      Social media brings us together with people like us
      Social media helps people like us act together
    • 13. 10-Nov-09
      13
      All publishers, advertisers & marketers now
      Friend-recommendation is responsible for 70%+ of all purchase decisions
      34% write about products and brands on their blogs
      20% of all tweets are brand related
      23% of social network users have added applications
      18% of bloggers install widgets
      Image by Melissa Gray
    • 14. 10-Nov-09
      14
      How do we adapt?
    • 15. The internet-powered long tail of demand is a disaster for traditional broad mass media models
      But it’s a huge opportunity for specialists.
      A disaster and an opportunity
    • 16. The user is the destination now
    • 17. 10-Nov-09
      17
      Hits are worth(-)less in a networked world
      The long tail...
      The idea that the majority is made up of people who don’t want the thing that the largest single group do.
      Twitter Trends, the charts and often elections – surface the largest single group – not, by a long way, the majority
    • 18. 10-Nov-09
      18
      The science bit
      Three laws describe how value growsand is distributed in networks…
    • 19. 10-Nov-09
      19
      Sarnoff’s Law – the red line
      The value of a broadcast network is proportional to the number of viewers/listeners:
      Eg TV, Radio, Cinema
    • 20. 10-Nov-09
      20
      Metcalfe’s Law: the yellow line
      The value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of users of the system (n² growth):
      Fax machines, telephones, one-to-one communications.
    • 21. 10-Nov-09
      21
      Reed’s Law: the green line
      • The value of large networks, particularly social networks, grows exponentially with the size of the network.(2n)
      Because: The number of possible sub-groups of network participants grows faster than either the number of participants, ‘N’ (Sarnoff’s Law), or the number of possible pairs (Metcalfe's law) (N squared)
    • 22. 10-Nov-09
      22
      How does this reveal the value of a broad, ‘lowest common denominator’ hit in the networked world?
    • 23. 10-Nov-09
      23
      Flip the graphs to find the demand curve
      …and we discover why the long tail succeeds in the group forming (Reed’s Law) world of social networks that IS the internet.
    • 24. 10-Nov-09
      24
      Hits take more of the available valuein a broadcast world
    • 25. 10-Nov-09
      25
      Hits were worth more in broadcast world
      Shaded area shows hits account for a greater proportion of the available demand and total value in Sarnoff’s broadcast world and in Metcalfe’sworld of one-to-one communications.
      The biggest single group = the majority in a broadcast world but a small minority in the networked world
    • 26. 10-Nov-09
      26
      Hits are still worth having… but
      They have less proportional value compared to the overall economics of the networked world.
      In a broadcast world the hit was where MOST of the value resided
      The opposite is true in a networked world.
      Narrowcasting serves a greater number of people. All those tiny niches are bigger in total than the largest of your lowest-common-denominator single groups.
      So if you're really about scale - you know what to do… or at least try to do
    • 27. 10-Nov-09
      27
      Caution: Snakes
      Long tail is getting longer…
    • 28. 10-Nov-09
      28
      Frightening Fragmentation
      Q: How can we reach deep into and along the ever-elongating long tail?
      A: Understand how messages/ideas and conversations evolve in the networked world
    • 29. You can’t target – they can
      Fragmentation means you can never hope to target all emerging niche communities
      So what you can do to engage them?
    • 30. The internet is for people.
    • 31. The internet is for people. For people to form groups
    • 32. The internet is for people. For people to form groupsGroups with sharedpurposes
    • 33. The internet is for people. For people to form groupsGroups with shared purposesGroups of people that can form at little or no cost
    • 34. 10-Nov-09
      34
      That changes everything
      http://flickr.com/photos/stuckincustoms/
    • 35. Three key disruptions
      Who gets to create content?
      Who gets to distribute content?
      Who controls the user experience?
    • 36. Three keydisruptions
      Who gets to create content?
      Any and everyone
      Who gets to distribute content?
      Any and everyone
      Who controls the user experience?
      The user is the destination now, they control their own A-to-anywhere journey
    • 37. You can’t target every community of purpose
      They can
      Here’s how
      http://flickr.com/photos/caribb/
    • 38. You can’t target every community of purpose
      They can
      Here’s how
    • 39. 10-Nov-09
      39
      THE STAGE
      Message broadcast at audience
      Scale = audience = where the eyeballs have gone
    • 40. 10-Nov-09
      40
      THE STAGE
      But in the networked world the broadcast message doesn’t arrive
    • 41. 10-Nov-09
      41
      They aren’t looking
      at The Stage.
      They are looking
      at each other
      Scale = lots of communities of purpose = where the eyeballs are focused
    • 42. 10-Nov-09
      42
      • They share messages among
      their groups.
      • They adapt them to suit their groups
      • 43. They make the message theirs
      We share what we think is cool with people who (we think) will think its cool, too
    • 44. 10-Nov-09
      43
      • The groups are not fixed (adhoc).
      • 45. The message spreads when the
      groups reform around a new purpose
      Users select what they think is cool (has utility) to take with them on their journey
    • 46. 10-Nov-09
      44
      Participants adapt
      the message
      to suit the group
      they wish to share it with
      The people best-placed to adapt the message are in the group, not on the stage
    • 47. 10-Nov-09
      45
      And so it continues;
      the message evolving to
      survive. Or it dies out
      We share what we think is cool. That which we co-create, we embrace
    • 48. 10-Nov-09
      46
      They aren’t your groups
      they are theirs
      They aren’t your messages
      they are theirs
      Communication is not done to them, it is done by them
    • 49. 8th Mass Media
      WE are the distribution,
      WE are the content,
      WE are the 'user journey',
      WE are how messages are transmitted.
      WE are the medium and the media carried by it
      WE are the connections.
      and how the connections are made.
    • 50. 10-Nov-09
      48
      Same as it ever was?
    • 51. Strategies for success in the 8th Mass Media
      We need to think of specialist content as 'social objects'
      This will reveal the new revenues in a world where nobody wants to pay for content and no one clicks on the ads.
    • 52. What’s a social object?
      You and your friend, Joe, like to go bowling every Tuesday. The bowling is the Social Object. 
      Hugh Macleod – GapingVoid.com
      It is the interesting thing that brings people together to talk/interact/do stuff
      10-Nov-09
      50
    • 53. Give them something interesting to do together (social objects)
      Make it easy for people who care to connect and interact
      People who care, act
      Action creates value (makes change)
      Their actions attract more people to the purpose by amplifying and sustaining the conversation
    • 54. The value is in the community interaction
      Nursery Rules: Distribution vs Contribution
      CompareMyRadio, Synth Britannia, Mixcloud: why the long tail wins
      The publisher’s role in discovery: the value of keeping the silo open
    • 55. Lessons from the network
      Publishing is The Great Reminder. It has real potential to be the social object around which peer-to-peer interaction happens. And the real magic happens in those peer-to-peer interactions. This is where the purchase reminders and recommendations happen in the main.
      Getting your share: It is therefore where the greater revenue opportunities lay. Your click-to-buy model (or it's equivalent) therefore has to be portable so peers can take it with them on their journeys.
      Narrowcasting serves a greater number of people. All those tiny niches are bigger in total than the largest of your lowest-common-denominator single groups. So if you're really about scale - you know what to do.
      Discovery = community curated content ONLY where communities are fuzzy-edged. Bear that in mind when you consider whose communities we are talking about - and where they reside.
    • 56. Monetising the interactions requires:
      Tracking from source of inspiration
      Portability (goes with the user)
      Agreements on revenue shares (with platform providers and/or users, too?)
    • 57. 10-Nov-09
      55
      The networked journey
      Listening to and responding to the network requires and drives cultural change within the organisation itself.
      It raises and answers big questions about ownership and control to make your brand or organisation a better fit with the demands of the networked world.
      It is your safe passage to the future
    • 58. 10-Nov-09
      56
      Remember: Something’s got to give
      If the world outside is changing faster than the world inside, something is going to tear
      It won’t be the world outside
    • 59. 10-Nov-09
      57
      Remember: There’s more help outside than in
      The people who can make the biggest difference to your company - who can help you most - don't work for it.
      Adapting to the network means they can.
    • 60. 10-Nov-09
      58
      Remember: The great disruption has only just begun
      Brian Eno 1991
    • 61. David Cushman
      Ninety10group.com
      FasterFuture.blogspot.com
      twitter.com/davidcushman
      davidpcushman@gmail.com
      david@ninety10group.com
      Call or text +447736 353590
      10-Nov-09
      59