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Using future scenarios is a valuable complement to the strategy and strategic thinking process....these two presentations aim to provide a high-level overview of the approach and potential value to be ...

Using future scenarios is a valuable complement to the strategy and strategic thinking process....these two presentations aim to provide a high-level overview of the approach and potential value to be gained.

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Strategy and future scenarios   part 2 Strategy and future scenarios part 2 Presentation Transcript

  • Strategy Planning and Executing with Future Scenarios
    Improving decision making and strategic paths to creating the futurePart 2 - A Process Framework
    1
  • What do we mean by strategy?
    2
  • 3
    What do we mean by strategic thinking?
    Grundy 1994
  • The traditional strategy process cycle...
    4
    “Most companies have an annual cycle of strategic planning reviews...”
    - however -
    “...strategies are rarely made in conference rooms but are more likely to be cooked up informally and often in real time.”
    McKinsey Quarterly – Tired of Strategic Planning? Henry Mintzberg : The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning
  • Creating a new cycle and approach
    5
    How do we transform the traditional approach into conversations and dialogue that prepare senior managers for real-time strategy making
  • 6
    “The ability to learn faster than your competitors may be your only sustainable competitive advantage.”
    Arie de Geus
  • So what then is the purpose?
    The tools of conventional strategic analysis are still required
    – however –
    they have another purpose
    7
    “We do this so that we have prepared minds.”
    Extracted from “Creating Strategy in an unknowable Universe”. - Eric D. Beinhocker. HBS Working Knowledge series
  • What then is the purpose?
    8
    “...to provide the context for making real-time decisions and to help deal with all the uncertainties they know will come their way...”
    “...the point is not predicting the future...but a learning exercise to prepare for a future that was inherently uncertain.”
    This shift in perspective implies a rethinking and redesign of the strategy process and the outcomes it needs to deliver
    Extracted from “Creating Strategy in an unknowable Universe”. - Eric D. Beinhocker. HBS Working Knowledge series
  • A successful approach will
    • Facilitate in-depth discussion and debate among key decision makers
    • Create a forum in which decision makers are intensely aware of the key strategic issues – and spend adequate time understanding them
    • Be driven by facts and analysis – not opinions – and based on well researched preparation prior to strategy conversations
    • Have decision makers fully engaged in the preparation of contextual information
    • Use separate decision making forums – to avoid overburdening the strategy process with short term budgets and targets
    • Maximise engagement and participation across the organisation – both top-down and bottoms-up
    9
    build “prepared minds” - challenge assumptions - increase innovativeness
    Set the context for the design and delivery of a portfolio of initiatives
  • 10
    A Process Framework – High Level
    Assess Context
    Make it Work
    Develop , select and design key strategies and priorities
    Where do we want to be?
    What Progress are we making
    Where are we now?
    What future possibilities do we face?
    How do we get there?
  • A Process Framework – Mid Level
    Assess Context
    Develop , select and design key strategies and priorities
    Make it Work
    Where do we want to be?
    What Progress are we making
    Where are we now?
    Understand Business Strategies, Goals, Opportunities
    Macro Analysis
    • Political
    • Environmental
    • Economic
    • Social
    • Demographic
    Agree Functional Vision, Mission
    Identify key Strategic Goals & Issues
    What future possibilities do we face?
    Plan Portfolio Delivery
    Agree key Environmental Issues
    Micro Analysis
    • Customer
    • Competitor
    • Technology
    • Strategic partners
    • Markets
    Develop future scenarios
    Mobilise and Execute Initiatives
    Review implications
    Monitor execution performance
    Decide on strategies and resource allocations
    How do we get there?
    Internal Analysis
    • Landscapes
    • Portfolios
    • Strengths
    • Weaknesses
    Decide on Portfolio of Initiatives
    11
  • 12
    A Process Framework - Overview
    Macro Analysis
    Political - Economic - Social - Technological - Regulatory - Environment
    Destination Vision and Goals
    IT Portfolios, Landscapes & Lifecycles, Strengths
    & Weaknesses
    Future Scenarios
    Internal Analysis
    Blended Business & IS Strategy
    Strategic
    Resource Allocations
    Manage Portfolio Mix
    Trigger events that indicate how future environment is evolving
    Develop
    Approve
    Deliver
    Manage Execution and Throughput
    Customers – Competitors – Markets – Strategic Partners
    Micro Analysis
  • 13
  • 14
    If you are interested in exploring or applying this further – then contact me :
    david.a.carson@diageo.com
    +44 (0)7803855573