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Strategy and future scenarios part 1

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Using future scenarios is a valuable complement to the strategy and strategic thinking process....these two presentations aim to provide a high-level overview of the approach and potential value to be …

Using future scenarios is a valuable complement to the strategy and strategic thinking process....these two presentations aim to provide a high-level overview of the approach and potential value to be gained

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  • 1. 1
    Strategy Planning and Executing with Future Scenarios
    Improving decision making and strategic paths to creating the futurePart 1 – Introduction to Future Scenarios
    1
  • 2. Introduction
    2
    The purpose of this document is to show how scenarios – realistic and plausible stories about our future business environment – can be used to develop and test strategies and decisions when faced with uncertainty and ambiguity.
    It assumes limited knowledge of the philosophy and application of scenario planning – and therefore aims to introduce the concepts and approach.
    It is important to note that the real value in scenario planning, and the learning involved, comes from the strategic conversations that the process facilitates between key stakeholders and the creation and embedding of a ‘scenario thinking’ mindset.
    This document cannot convey the full process, the richness of information and creativity that the process facilitates – however – it is hopefully up to the task of conveying the approach, insights to be gained, and the potential for gaining foresight of how the future can evolve - and through this – enable us to develop more robust strategies and roadmaps – and anticipate and rapidly adapt as the future unfolds.
  • 3. 3
    Achieving Our Destination
    Requires us to
    Understandrapids of change
    Anticipate potential disruptions and critical uncertainties
    Develop strategies and make real-time decisions to better navigateour way towards specific goals and aspirations
  • 4. As a leader/manager/strategistHow can you:
    Strengthen your ‘radar scanning’ skills
    Better detect those weak yet important signals on the far horizon
    Assess their potential significance
    and
    use this information to think, decide and act in a way that enhances your ability to reach your destination
    4
  • 5. 5
    “The most important use of scenarios is to devise new insights about the future environment. From this foresight, organisations can craft more effective strategies and plans.”
    Learning from the future – competitive foresight scenarios : Fahey & Randall
  • 6. 6
    What is a Future Scenario?
    • A scenario is a story about the future, describing a plausible, coherent and challenging picture of the business environment
    • 7. It also contains a consistent account of how the world gets to that future state, from current reality
    • 8. Scenarios always come in sets of more than one, to express the uncertainty of the future
    • 9. Good scenarios are: They are not:
    • 10. Plausible, > predictions
    • 11. Internally consistent, > extrapolations
    • 12. Relevant and challenging > best case/worst case/ ‘blue sky’
    • 13. Scenarios are based on solid and in-depth research and gathering of opinions from a diverse group of people - including outside the company
  • 7
    How do Future Scenarios contribute to the strategy process
    Future Scenarios
    • Improve yourstrategic thinking, strategy and decision making process
    • 14. Help challenge assumptions and ideas about the future
    • 15. Help refinecurrent plans and decisions – improve strategic risk management
    • 16. Assess the implications and viability of options against the futures
    • 17. Improve your environmental and externalradar scanning
    • 18. Makeyou more attuned and sensitive to how the future is unfolding
    • 19. Increase the speed at which you can react and adapt as events unfold
    • 20. Createa shared environment of ‘standing inthe future’ – whilecreatinga path of least resistance towards specific goals
  • 8
    Future business contexts
    Future Scenarios
    Future
    Scenario
    II
    Future
    Scenario
    I
    Future
    Scenario
    III
    Future
    Scenario
    IV
    Bringing it all together – leadership teams use the scenarios to develop and test actions and plans – and take decisions as the future unfolds
    The
    Present
    Future Destination & Goals
    Test robustness of thinking and actions against future scenarios
    Continually monitor events to anticipate which scenario is emerging
    Functional
    Leadership
    Teams
    Strategic
    Themes
    Strategic
    Actions
    Continually assess and adapt strategies and decisions as future unfolds
    • Actions we should be doing anyway, but overlooked
    • 21. Actions we should take until unfolding events tell us to stop
    • 22. Actions we need to have ready for a specific future
    • 23. Actions to influence the future
    • 24. Capabilities required for all futures
    • 25. Directional, distinctive capabilities to create competitive advantage in longer term
    • 26. Contingent capabilities to win in a specific future
    • 27. Capabilities needed but have no basis for at present
    Adapted from IDON Scenario methods
  • 28. 9
    If you are interested in exploring or applying this further – then feel free to contact me :
    david.a.carson@diageo.com
    +44 (0)7803855573

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