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2013 producer meeting

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  • 1. 2013ProducerMeeting
  • 2. Risk Management In An Uncertain EnvironmentJanuary 25th 2013HLC/ AgQuest Producer Meeting
  • 3. Todays agenda includes:8:50-9:00- Ben Fast-County Executive Director-Disaster Payment9:00-9:25-Kurt Legred- CHS- broad range of markets9:25-9:35-Dennis Schreier-General Manager9:35-10:50-Kevin, Joel, Mark, Steve- Scenarios, Matrix, Marketing prices & localYields-Bull, Neutral, & Bearish Scenarios10:50-11:10- Lynn Button- Insurance Quoting Software continuing on from Joel’sexamples & numbers on how insurance minimizes lost members including insurancecost, insurance indemnity during the bull, neutral, & bearish scenarios11:10-11:40- Marty Bonnell- Petroleum- Brams Engineering LLC-Senior CivilEngineer11:40-12:00-Tim Lewis-Agribusiness Farm Insurance Specialist, Certified InsuranceCounselor, Master Farm Certified
  • 4. Ben Fast-FSACounty Executive Director (CED)USDA Farm Service Agency
  • 5. CHS Hedging January 25th, 2013 Harvest Land Kurt LegredThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 6. Grain Trade has become a Global Exercise This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 7. CRB- old and newThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 8. Reuters CRB IndexThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 9. Weekly Continuous Commodity IndexThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 10. Weekly Baltic Dry Freight IndexThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 11. Weekly U.S. Dollar IndexThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 12. Monthly U.S. Dollar IndexThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 13. Weekly Crude Oil Futures on CMEThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 14. Monthly Crude Oil Futures on the CME This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 15. US CornThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 16. Corn Outlook• USDA raised the planted acres……lowered harvested acres slightly• The yield was raised 1.1 bushel per acre…..• Feed & Residual saw a healthy 300 million bushel increase while exports were reduced 200 million bushels• 2012-13 exports are down 593 million bushels from 2011-12 marketing year• Ending stocks are at 602 million bushels, down 45 million bushels This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 17. US Corn Supply/Demand Balance Table Estimate 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13Planted Acres 79.6 75.7 78.9 78.6 80.9 81.8 78.3 93.5 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2Harvested Acres 72.4 68.8 69.3 70.9 73.6 75.1 70.6 86.5 78.6 79.5 81.4 84.0 87.4Yield 136.9 138.2 129.3 142.2 160.4 148.0 149.1 150.7 153.9 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4Sep 1 Stocks 1,718 1,899 1,596 1,087 958 2,114 1,967 1,304 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 989Production 9,915 9,503 8,967 10,089 11,807 11,114 10,535 13,038 12,092 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780Imports 7 10 14 14 11 9 12 20 14 8 28 29 100Total Supply 11,639 11,412 10,578 11,190 12,776 13,237 12,514 14,362 13,729 14,774 14,182 13,516 11,869Domestic Use 7,799 7,911 7,903 8,332 8,444 9,122 9,086 10,302 10,198 11,079 11,220 10,985 10,317Exports 1,941 1,905 1,588 1,900 1,818 2,147 2,125 2,436 1,858 1,987 1,835 1,543 950Ethanol 628 706 996 1,168 1,323 1,603 2,117 3,026 3,677 4,568 5,021 5,011 4,500Total Use 9,740 9,815 9,491 10,232 10,662 11,270 11,210 12,737 12,056 13,066 13,055 12,527 11,267Aug 31 Carryout 1,899 1,596 1,087 958 2,114 1,967 1,304 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 602Stocks to Use 19.5% 16.3% 11.5% 9.4% 19.8% 17.5% 11.6% 12.8% 13.9% 13.1% 8.6% 7.9% 5.3% This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 18. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 19. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 20. US Corn Planted Acres 120.0 97.2 100.0 93.5 91.9 86.0 86.4 88.2 78.9 80.9 81.8 80.0 79.6 78.6 78.3 75.7Milion Acres 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 21. US Corn Harvested Acres 100.0 86.5 87.4 90.0 81.4 84.0 79.5 80.0 78.6 72.4 73.6 75.1 69.3 70.9 70.6 70.0 68.8 60.0Million Acres 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 22. US Corn Yield 180.0 160.4 152.8 153.9 160.0 149.1 147.2 164.7 140.0 136.9 129.3 150.7 148.0 138.2 142.2 120.0 123.4Bushels Per Acre 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 23. US Corn Production 14000 13038 13092 12447 12360 12092 12000 11807 11114 10535 10780 9915 9503 10089 10000 8967Million Bushels 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 24. US Corn FSI Usage 7000 6428 6437 5939 5867 6000 4953 5000 4363Million Bushels 4000 3488 2981 3000 2686 2537 2340 1957 2047 2000 1000 0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 25. US Corn Feed Usage 7000 6158 6141 5938 5842 5864 5795 6000 5563 5598 5246 5140 4793 5000 4548 4450Million Bushels 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 26. US Corn Domestic Use 12000 11079 11220 10985 10302 10198 10317 10000 9122 9086 8844 8332 7911 7903 8000 7799Million Bushels 6000 4000 2000 0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 27. US Corn Exports 3000 2500 2436 2147 2125 2000 1941 1905 1900 1987 1818 1858 1835Million Bushels 1588 1543 1500 1000 950 500 0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12E 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 28. US Corn Used For Ethanol 6000 5021 5011 5000 4568 4500 4000 3677Million Bushels 3026 3000 2117 2000 1603 1168 1323 995 1000 706 628 0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 29. US Corn Ending Stocks 2500 2114 2000 1967 1899 1673 1708 1596 1624 1500Million Bushels 1304 1087 1128 1000 958 989 602 500 0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 30. US Corn Stocks To Use Ratio 25.0% 19.5% 19.8% 20.0% 17.5% 16.3% 15.0% 13.9% 12.8% 13.1%Percent 11.6% 11.5% 9.4% 10.0% 8.6% 7.9% 5.3% 5.0% 0.0% 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 31. World Corn Outlook• World production was increased 3.21 million tonnes to 852.30 million tonnes• Brazil production was increased 1.0 million tonnes to 71.0 million tonnes• FSU corn production was reduced ½ a million to 31.76 million tonnes• World ending stocks were lowered 1.62 million tonnes This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 32. World Corn Production & Ending Stocks 1000 884 900 832 852 799 819 792 800 713 697 712 700 589 602 623 599 600Million Tonnes 500 400 300 200 171 148 131 130 149 144 132 125 125 109 127 116 100 104 0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 33. 25% World Corn Stocks to Use20% 19% 18%15% 15% 15% 13%10%5%0% 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 34. China Corn Production & Exports 250.0 208.0 192.8 200.0 177.3 165.9 164.0 151.6 152.3 150.0 130.3 139.4Million Tonnes 121.3 114.0 115.8 106.0 100.0 50.0 15.2 7.3 8.6 7.6 7.6 3.7 5.3 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 35. Argentine Corn Production & Exports 30.0 28.0 25.2 25.0 23.3 22.5 22.0 20.5 21.0 20.0 19.5Million Tonnes 15.8 17.5 15.4 15.5 15.0 15.5 16.5 16.4 14.7 15.3 15.0 14.8 14.6 10.8 11.2 10.9 10.0 10.3 9.7 9.5 5.0 0.0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 36. Brazil Corn Production & Exports 80.0 73.0 71.0 70.0 60.0 58.6 56.1 57.4 51.0 51.0 50.0 47.6 41.7Million Tonnes 41.5 42.8 40.0 35.5 35.0 30.0 20.0 21.5 17.5 10.0 10.8 11.6 7.8 7.1 8.4 6.5 5.2 4.1 4.5 1.9 0.7 0.0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 37. South Africa Corn Production & Exports 16.0 14.0 13.5 13.2 13.4 12.6 12.4 12.0 11.7 10.9 10.1 9.7 10.0 9.7Million Tonnes 8.0 8.0 6.9 7.3 6.0 4.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 38. Annual Corn Use Implied by Weekly EthanolProduction 4620 4600 Cumulative average is at 4541 mb. 4580 4560 mb corn use 4540 4520 4500 4480 4460 USDA est. 4440 4420 Dec 07 Dec 14 Dec 21 Dec 28 Oct 05 Oct 12 Oct 19 Oct 26 Jan 04 Sep 07 Sep 14 Sep 21 Sep 28 Nov 02 Nov 09 Nov 16 Nov 23 Nov 30 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 39. CBOT July 1996 Corn Futures versusCBOT December 1996 Corn FuturesThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 40. CME July 2013 Corn Futures versus Dec. 2013 Corn FuturesThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 41. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 42. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 43. CME Nearby Monthly Corn FuturesThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 44. CME March 2013 Corn FuturesThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 45. CME July 2013 Corn FuturesThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 46. CME December 2013 Corn FuturesThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 47. Soybeans• WORLD SUPPLY/DEMAND• US BALANCE SHEET• PRICESThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 48. World SituationThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 49. Local Marketing YearsSeptember 1, August 31, 2012 2013 U.S. April 1, 2013 Argentina March 31, 2014 Feb. 1, 2013 Brazil Jan. 31, 2014This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 50. World Soybean Stocks 80 Exporter Stocks- Local 70 Marketing Years World Stocks 60 50 mmt 40 30 20 10 0This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 51. Brazil & Argentina Ending Stocks Local Marketing Years 14 Argentina 12 Brazil Local marketing years ending early 2013 10 8mmt 6 4 2 0 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 52. Stocks/Use 30% Exporters Stocks/Use- Local World Aggregate 25% 20% 15% MY ended fall 2013 U.S., and spring 2014 S.A. 10% 5% 0% This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 53. Stocks-to-Use RatioLocal Marketing Year 16% Argentina Brazil 14% Any additional production losses will come out of use in Brazil; Argentina could maintain current export projection without making a 12% new low in the ratio. 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 54. Area Harvested 30 Brazil Argentina 27.5 25.0 25 22.9 22.2 23.5 24.2 21.5 21.7 20.7 21.3 19.5 20 18.4 18.6 18.3 17.6 16.4 16.3 16.4 16.0million ha 15.2 15 13.0 12.9 13.6 13.9 14.0 14.4 12.6 11.4 10.4 10 8.2 8.6 7.0 5 0 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 55. Soybean Yield 49 Argentina Brazil Linear (Argentina) Linear (Brazil) 46.3 44.6 43.7 44 42.2 41.9 42.442.6 44.5 43.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 41.7 41.9 42.0 37.9 38.1 41.2 39 37.2 40.3 39.7 39.6 39.8 36.1 39.1 bpa 35.2 34.4 34.4 33.032.8 36.436.7 34 36.035.2 32.1 31.5 35.1 34.434.1 33.9 29.6 32.6 29 31.0 29.7 24.0 26.9 24 1991/92 1992/93 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 1990/91 1993/94 1997/98 2001/02 2005/06 2009/10 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 56. Production: Brazil & Argentina Brazil Argentina 160 Crop estimates are coming in as low as 45 mmt for Argentina and 65 mmt for 140 Brazil. 120 mmt 54.0 100 54.5 49.0 48.8 46.2 40.1 80 40.5 35.5 39.0 32.0 33.0 60 30.0 27.8 40 75.3 82.5 61.0 69.0 66.5 52.0 51.0 53.0 57.0 59.0 57.8 20 39.5 43.5 0 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 57. World Import Demand Rest of World China 120 100 80mmtr 60 40 20 0 1990/91 1992/93 1994/95 1995/96 1997/98 1999/00 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2005/06 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2012/13 1991/92 1993/94 1996/97 1998/99 2001/02 2003/04 2006/07 2011/12 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 58. Chinese Crush Margins 800 600 400 200CNY/tonne 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1000This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 59. Chinese Soybean Imports 7 6 5 2007/08 4 2008/09 mmt 3 2009/10 2010/11 2 2011/12 1 2012/13 0This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 60. Brazil Soybean Exports 7 6 5mmt 4 2011 2012 3 2013 2 1 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 61. U.S. Balance SheetThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 62. NOPA Crush 170 2009/10 2010/11 160 2011/12 2012/13 150 140mb 130 120 Unadjusted for April 2011 110 membership change December was up 10% y/y. 100This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 63. Quarterly Crush Y/Y Assumptions: Q1 +10% 600 Q2+2% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q3 -7% Q4 -28% 500 467 459 451 442 445 443 420 412 400mb 300 200 100 0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 64. U.S. Bean Export Commitments 1800 1600 1400 1200million bushels 1000 12/13 exports were unchanged at 800 1,345 mb. 600 400 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 200 2012/13 0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 65. Export Commitments: % of FinalSoybeans 120% 2012/13 5-yr average 100% 80% 1,345 is consistent with the pace from 2010/11. 60% 40% 20% 0% This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 66. Export Commitments: % of FinalSoybean Oil 2012/13 5-yr avg. 120% 100% 80% 60% Oil exports were raised by 350 million pounds. Commitments are now 69% of 40% the projected total, ahead of the average of 39% for this date. 20% 0% This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 67. Export Commitments: % of FinalSoybean Meal 2012/13 5-yr avg 120% 100% 80% 60% Meal export s were unchanged on the 40% January report. 20% 0% This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 68. Source: U of IllinoisThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 69. Source: U of Illinois, OPISThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 70. Soy Oil Use Soyoil use for biodiesel Estimate of soyoil use required to meet RFS2 biodiesel mandate (calendar 6000 year) If biodiesel production is 1.83 billion gallons, calendar 2013 soy 5000 oil use is estimated at 6,241 4000 million pounds 3000 2000 1000 0 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 71. Soy Oil 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13Beginning Stocks 3009 3084 2485 2862 3406 2425 2542Production 20490 20580 18746 19615 18887 19740 18700Imports 37 66 90 104 159 150 351Total Supply 23537 23731 21321 22580 22452 22315 21592Exports 1876 2910 2194 3360 3232 1464 2150Soyoil use for biodiesel 2762 3245 2022 1680 2736 4901 4901Food Use 15814 15091 14244 14134 14059 13409 13001Total Domestic Use 18576 18336 16266 15814 16795 18309 17902Ending Stocks 3084 2485 2862 3406 2425 2542 1541Stocks/Use 17% 14% 18% 22% 14% 14% 9% Limited room for an 2000 million lb. increase in bio. use This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 72. October to March Soybean/CornRatio2.552.452.352.252.152.051.951.851.75 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 73. New-Crop Soybean/Corn Ratio 2.6 2012 2.5 2013 2008-2012 avg 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2 1.9 October November December January February MarchThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 74. Price and Acre Ratios 1 2013 at 98 corn and 2006 0.95 78 beans 2010 0.9 2004 2009 2005 0.85 2008soy/corn acres 2013 2011 0.8 0.75 2012 0.7 2007 0.65 0.6 0.55 0.5 1.8 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 soy/corn price This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 75. U.S. Soybean Supply/Demand Jan. 11 USDA Jan. 11 USDA Jan. est. Jan. est. 2011/12 2012/13 2012/13 2013/14 Planted Acres 75.0 77.2 77.2 78.0 Harvested Acres 73.8 76.1 76.1 76.4 Yield 41.9 39.6 39.6 43.4 Beginning Stocks 215 169 169 135 Production 3,094 3,015 3,015 3,317 Imports 16 20 20 15 Total Supply 3,325 3,204 3,204 3,467 Crush 1,703 1,605 1,606 1,675 Exports 1,362 1,345 1,370 1,450 Seed 90 89 89 89 Residual 1 30 5 25 Total Usage 3,155 3,070 3,070 3,239 Ending Stocks 169 135 135 228 Stocks/Use Ratio 5.4% 4.4% 4.4% 7.0% This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 76. PricesThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 77. CME March 2013 Soybeans WeeklyThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 78. CME Nov 2013 Soybeans WeeklyThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 79. CME Nearby Monthly CME Soybean FuturesThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 80. Dec. 1 Soybean Stocks% On-Farm 60% 56% 55% 55% 54% 54% 54% 54% 54% 52% 53% 52% 53% 51% 50% 49% 48% 48% 48% 48% 47% 47% 46% 46% 45% 44% 40% 35% 30% This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  • 81. Marketing Scenarios• Kevin Deberg-Grain Manger• Joel Heiling-Account Manager• Steve Bach-Business Relationship Manger• Mark Kubesh-Business Relationship Manger• Lynn Button-VP of AgQuest InsuranceThe following information is subject to change at anytime.Harvest Land Cooperative makes no representation or warranty regarding the correctness of anyinformation contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. There isa risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options.
  • 82. Jan 8, 2013CORN YIELD AFFECT SOYBEANS YIELD AFFECT Trend Below Above Trend Below AbovePlanted Acres 100.0 100.0 100.0 Planted Acres 77.0 77.0 77.0Harvested Acres 93.0 93.0 93.0 Harvested Acres 76.0 76.0 76.0Yield 158 148 168 Yield 43 41 45Total Crop 14694 13764 15624 Total Crop 3268 3116 3420Carry In 602.0 602.0 602.0 Carry In 135.0 135.0 135.0Total Supply 15296.0 14366.0 16226.0 Total Supply 3403.0 3251.0 3555.0Usage 12750.0 12750.0 12750.0 Usage 3250.0 3250.0 3250.0Carry Out 14 2546.0 1616.0 3476.0 Carry Out 14 153 1 305 ACRES PLANTED CROP YEAR CORN BEANS TOTAL WHEAT C,B,&W COTTON C.B.W.& C. 2005 81.8 72.1 153.9 57.2 211.1 2006 78.3 75.5 153.8 57.3 211.1 2007 93.5 64.7 158.2 60.4 218.6 2008 86 75.7 161 63.2 224.2 2009 86.5 77.5 164 59.1 223.1 7.56 230.66 2010 88.2 77.4 165.6 53.6 219.2 10.7 229.9 2011 91.9 75 166.9 54.4 221.3 14.7 236 2012 96.9 77.2 174.1 55.7 229.8 12.4 242.2 2013 - est. 100 77 177 57 234 10 244
  • 83. CORN ACRES 2013 CORN ACREAGE AFFECT TREND BELOW ABOVE• Planted Acres 100.0 100.0 100.0• Harvested Acres 93.0 93.0 93.0• Yield 158.0 148.0 168.0• Total Crop 14694 13764 15624• Carry In 602 602 602• Total Supply 15296 14366 16226• Usage 12750 12750 12750• Carry Out 2014 2546 1616 3476• Proj. $ / bu. 5.50 6.50 3.50
  • 84. PLANTED ACRES 2013 SOYBEAN ACREAGE AFFECT TREND BELOW ABOVE• Planted Acres 77.0 77.0 77.0• Harvested Acres 76.0 76.0 76.0• Yield 43.0 41.0 45.0• Total Crop 3268 3116 3420• Carry In 135 135 135• Total Supply 3403 3251 3555• Usage 3250 3250 3250• Carry Out 2014 153 1 305• Proj. $ / bu. 13.50 16.00 11.00
  • 85. Cash price ranges for corn and soybeans 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Cash Corn Price $2.80 - $4.37 $2.61 - $7.05 $2.76 - $4.12 $3.01 - $5.79 $5.45 - $7.57 $5.65 - $8.06 Range $1.57 $4.44 $1.36 $2.78 $2.12 $2.41Cash Beans Price $5.94 - $11.50 $7.36 - $15.25 $8.09 - $11.96 $8.60 - $13.38 $10.50 - $13.87 $10.98 - $17.64 Range $5.56 $7.89 $3.87 $4.78 $3.37 $6.66
  • 86. 2013 Insurance Information AgQuest Insurance is an Equal Opportunity Provider
  • 87. Dry Pea/Dry BeanNew for 2013
  • 88. Program Overview• Revenue coverage for pulse crops will operate identically to the Revenue coverage available for other crops. • The concept: • Use alternative methods to determine “projected” and “harvest” prices. • Without a futures market for pulse crops, the prices will be established using statistically tested data from industry stakeholders and governmental agencies to publish the projected and harvest prices. • Otherwise, the product is identical to the coverage offered by existing Combo Revenue plans.
  • 89. Price Determination• To calculate the projected price: • On or before February 15 of the crop year the offer price and expected contract volume will be collected. • The volume and prices will be used to calculate a weighted average projected price.• To calculate the harvest price: • The dry pea harvest price will utilize an average price from the USADPLC check-off assessment data set. The dry bean harvest price will use an average price from AMS Bean Market News.
  • 90. Dry Pea Pilot• The Dry Pea Revenue Endorsement is available for the following types: • Green/yellow peas • Lentils • Large Kabuli Chickpeas • Small Kabuli Chickpeas
  • 91. Pilot – Dry Pea Revenue - AvailabilityCoverage is offered to all counties where spring dry peayield coverage is available in Idaho, Montana, North © 2012 NCISDakota, and Washington. DRAFT 98 Plans 01, 02, and 03
  • 92. Dry Bean Pilot• The Dry Bean Revenue Endorsement is available for the following types: • Black Beans • Dark Red Kidney Beans • Pea (Navy) Beans • Pinto Beans • Revenue Policy RP • HP Exclusion • YP bushel guarantee
  • 93. Dry BeanCoverage levels 50-75 % in 5% incrementsOptional and Basic units only -- No Enterprise unitsQuality adjustments limited to US#3Establishing Prices for projected price and Harvest priceNortharvest Bean Growers Association & AMS Bean marketNewsEstablish projected price by Feb 15 and will be out no later thanMarch 3Harvest Price – track sales from Sept 1 – date closest toNovember 30 and will be out no later than December 15Harvest Price can be no greater than 1.5 higher than projected
  • 94. Dry Bean Pilot• Coverage is offered to all counties where spring dry bean yield coverage is available in North Dakota and Minnesota.
  • 95. Program Example• Identically to the Combo revenue product, start by calculating the Expected Revenue: • Exp Rev = Approved Yield * Projected Price $448/ac = 14 cwt./ac * $32.00/cwt.• The Guarantee is calculated as the product of the Expected Revenue, Coverage Level, and Share: • Guarantee = Exp Revenue * Coverage Level* Share $336/ac = $448/ac * 75% * 100%• Assume the following: • Actual yield: 11 cwt./ac • Harvest price: $20/cwt.
  • 96. Program Example• Revenue to Count is calculated identical to Combo Revenue Protection program: • Rev to Count = Actual Yield * Harvest Price $220/ac = 11 cwt./ac * $20.00/cwt• Indemnity is calculated as Guarantee less Revenue to Count: • Indemnity = max (0, Guarantee – Rev to Count) $116/ac = $336/ac - $220/ac Please note: The producer would have received no indemnity at the 75% coverage level under Yield (APH) coverage plan.
  • 97. Actual Production History (APH)• Actual production history minimum 4 years up to 10 years for insured unit• Added land will get the higher of the County T-yield or Simple average of the existing• Added Land -• less than 640 cropland acres • Simple Average (SA) or T-Yield or Variable T-yield (whichever is higher)• 640 and less than 2,000 cropland acres • Variable T-yield or request to RO to use the Simple Average (SA) T-yield• Greater than or equal to 2,000 cropland acres • Variable T-yields apply only
  • 98. Trend-Adjusted APH (TA)• Eligibility:• Must have at least 1 actual yield in 1 of most recent 4 crop years.• If database contains < 4 actual yields in the 12 most recent crop years the trend adjustments are prorated as follows: • 4 years = 100% of TA • 3 years = 75% of TA • 2 years = 50% of TA • 1 Year = 25% of TA• Elect by Sales Closing Date• Available on Buy-up policies only – excludes CAT policies• Corn and Soybeans only • Corn for Silage, Specialty Soybeans and Organic crops are excluded
  • 99. TA Example
  • 100. Unit Structure• Optional – Subdivided basic unit • Reporting and keeping production separate section by section• Enterprise – Crops • All acres of the insured crop in the county in which insured has a share • 2 or more basic or optional units of crop located in 2 or more section, 20 Acres or 20% of insured crop acreage
  • 101. Optional/Enterprise Unit Example 80 acres 80 acres 80 acres 1 2 3 TA 190 TA 190 TA 190 #1 $12,960 @ 85% = $77,760 OU = 3 insurance guarantees #2 $12,960 @ 85% = $77,760 Subsidy @ 85% $33.00 #3 $12,960 @ 85% = $77,760 Insured Cost $53.84 / ac EU = All crop/county = 1 Guar.#1, #2, and #3 = $38,800 bu Guar. Subsidy @ 85% $37.50@ $6.00 = $232,800 Rev. Guar. Insured Cost $33.28 / ac
  • 102. Enterprise Plus Example 80 acres 80 acres 80 acres 1 2 3 TA 190 TA 190 TA 190# 1 $12,960 @ 85% = $77,760 # 2 $12,960 @ 85% = $77,760 # 3 $12,960 @ 85% = $77,760 $38,800 bu. Guar. $232,800 rev. guarantee @ 80% E+ $72,960 $72,960 $72,960 190 190 190 1 2 3 152 bu. Gty. 152 bu. Gty. 152 bu. Gty.
  • 103. Enterprise Plus Example• 140 Harvest Bushels• X 7.50 Harvest Price• 152 – 140 = 12 bu. 12 X $7.50 = $90 Claim• Up to 10 on E+ Optional Units• Cannot have Enterprise policy loss• If, EU policy has payout then NO E+ payout• 5% less Coverage on E +
  • 104. 2013 Subsidy Levels
  • 105. Reduced Premium Rates• 5 – 10% Corn reduction / level based• 4 – 10 % Soybean reduction / level based• Moved to a 20 year rating instead 30-36 year • Adjustment of pre 1995 losses agronomic differences • Use of weather data adjust premium rates • Higher factor based on last 5 years closer to current crop
  • 106. Production Hail Coverage-NAUProducer:Crop: CORNYear: 2013County:Underwriting Company: NAU 228 Modified APHAPH 190Coverage level 85%Bushel gty 161.5Coverage Price $6.00 (See Spring Prices below)Coverage $969.00 190 APHProduction Hail Plan 1.2 (1.0 or 1.1, 1.15, 1.2)Modified APH 228less guaranteed bu 161.5Hail bushels covered 66.5RP, YP price $6.00Dollars of Hail Coverage $399.00 161.5 MPCI Bushel GtyProduction Plan Rate $3.40 (See "Rate Factors" tab)Cost of Hail (Coverage/Acre) $13.57Total Acres CoveredTotal Cost Per Crop $0.00 0Spring Base Prices: (RP)Corn $6.00Soybeans $13.00PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS:1) Losses are based on the harvested bushels vs. the adjusted % loss (spot losses) Loss Example: Agreed percentage of loss = 10% (Attributed to hail) Modified APH (from above) = 228 x 10% = 22.8 Adjusted bu/acre loss Assuming a harvested yield of 205.2 or less, the loss payment will be --------> #### If, however, harvested bushels = 216.6 The amount of loss payment 68.40 (Modified APH minus harvested bu. times spring price) $=
  • 107. Production Hail Coverage-NAUProducer:Crop: SOYBEANSYear: 2013County:Underwriting Company: NAU 62.4 Modified APHAPH 52Coverage level 85%Bushel gty 44.2Coverage Price $13.00 (See Spring Prices below)Coverage $574.60 52 APHProduction Hail Plan 1.2 (1.0 or 1.1, 1.15 or 1.2)Modified APH 62.4less guaranteed bu 44.2Hail bushels covered 18.2RP, YP price $13.00Dollars of Hail Coverage $236.60 44.2 MPCI Bushel GtyProduction Plan Rate $7.45 (See "Rate Factors" tab)Cost of Hail (Coverage/Acre) $17.63Total Acres CoveredTotal Cost Per Crop $0.00 0Spring Base Prices: (RP)Corn $6.00Soybeans $13.00PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS:1) Losses are based on the harvested bushels vs. the adjusted % loss (spot losses) Loss Example: Agreed percentage of loss = 10% (Attributed to hail) Modified APH (from above) = 62.4 x 10% = 6.24 Adjusted bu/acre loss Assuming a harvested yield of 56.16 or less, the loss payment will be --------> #### If, however, harvested bushels = 59.28 The amount of loss payment 40.56 (Modified APH minus harvested bu. times spring price) $=
  • 108. Wind, Freeze – Sugar Beets • Wind, Freeze and Soil Crusting Coverage • Endorsement to the Hail Policy with a 5% deductible • Provides growers to start planting April 1st or initial planting of April 10th • Purchase Dollar coverage same as hail. • Wind Freeze Stages April 1 – April 28 Stage 1 33.3% April 29 – May 25 Stage 2 66.7% May 26 – August 15 Stage 3 100 % August 16 - September 10 Stage 4 66.7% September 11 – September 30 Stage 5 33.3%
  • 109. Spill Prevention Control Countermeasure Regulation 40 CFR 112Presented by Martin Bonnell, PEJanuary 25, 2013
  • 110. PRESENTATIONOVERVIEW• Introductions• Who needs a SPCC Plan & what is covered?• State and Federal Regulations• How is a SPCC Plan used and maintained?• What to do in the event of a product spill• Questions & Discussion
  • 111. Who Needs a SPCC Plan• Owners or operators of petroleum facilities that have discharged or, due to their location, could reasonably be expected to discharge oil in harmful quantities into or upon the navigable waters of the United States or adjoining shorelines to prepare, in writing, an SPCC Plan.
  • 112. SPCC REQUIREMENTS• If the facility total aboveground storage in tanks or containers is > 1,320 gallons and/or > 42K gal underground storage (not 280/281 exempt)• It’s a non-transportation related facility (see 40 CFR Part 112 Appendices A & B)• And there is a reasonable chance of a discharge to waters of the U.S. or adjoining shorelines
  • 113. DEFINITIONS• Oil • Includes oil of any kind or in any form including, but not limited to: • Petroleum and fuel oils (gasoline, diesel, lube oils, aviation gasoline, naphtha, mineral spirits, etc.) • Sludge • Synthetic oils • Created by chemical synthesis
  • 114. DEFINITIONS• Oil (cont’d) • Oil refuse • Oil mixed with wastes other than dredged spoil • Animal fats, oils & greases • Vegetable oils • Mineral oils
  • 115. DENATURED ETHANOL• Denatured ethanol tanks are considered oil storage containers if the denaturant is an oil such as refined gasoline or natural gasoline• Shell capacity of tank used as storage capacity• These facilities may be subject to the SPCC & FRP requirements
  • 116. NON-TRANSPORTATION-RELATED FACILITIES• Industrial, commercial, agricultural, or public facilities which use, store, drill for, produce, gather, process, refine or consumer oil or oil products• Waste treatment facilities or part thereof• Pipeline systems, highway vehicles & railroad cars used to transport oil exclusively within a facility
  • 117. EPA Regulates:• Railroad cars after the transportation process ends and when they are operated as non-transportation-related storage at an SPCC regulated facilityDOT Regulates:• Railroad cars from the time the oil is offered for transportation to a carrier until the time it reaches its destination and is accepted by the consignee
  • 118. “REASONAL EXPECTATION” OF DISCHARGE• The determination must be based solely upon consideration of the geographical & locational aspects of the facility• Exclude manmade features such as dikes, equipment or other features which would restrain, hinder, contain or otherwise prevent a discharge as described in §112.1(b)
  • 119. “REASONAL EXPECTATION”(CONT.)• Factors to consider: • Whether a past discharge of oil reached a navigable water or adjoining shoreline; • Whether the facility is adjacent to navigable waters or adjoining shoreline; • On-site conduits, such as sewer lines, storm sewers, certain underground features (e.g., power or cable lines, or groundwater);
  • 120. “REASONAL EXPECTATION”(CONT.)• Factors to consider: • Unique geological or geographic features; • Whether the facility is near a watercourse & intervening natural drainage; • Whether precipitation runoff could transport oil into navigable waters; • The quantity & nature of oil stored
  • 121. STORAGE CAPACITY THRESHOLDS• IF it meets the other applicable criteria set forth in §112.1, the SPCC rule applies to a facility with: • > 1,320 gallons of aggregate aboveground oil storage capacity, or • > 42,000 gallons of completely buried oil storage capacity
  • 122. STORAGE CAPACITY Included in storage capacity Excluded from storage capacity• Capacity of containers (e.g., bulk • Capacity of completely buried tanks storage containers, oil-filled equipment, & associated underground piping, mobile/portable containers, etc.) with a ancillary equipment & containment capacity of 55 gallons or greater systems that are subject to all technical requirements of 40 CFR part 280 or 281 • Capacity of tanks used exclusively for wastewater treatment • Capacity of containers that are permanently closed • Motive power containers
  • 123. DEFINITION OF STORAGECAPACITY• “Storage capacity” is defined in §112.2 as the shell capacity of a container• Generally, the shell capacity is the rated design capacity rather than the working/operational capacity
  • 124. DEFINITION OF “PERMANENTLYCLOSED”• For a tank to be “permanently closed”, the facility must do the following: • Remove all liquid & sludge from each container & connecting line • Disconnect & blank off all connecting lines & piping • Close & lock all valves (except ventilation valves) • Pose a conspicuous sign on each container stating it is permanently closed with the date of closing• Tanks can remain on site, but they are not included in the total storage capacity
  • 125. SPCC Plan Basics
  • 126. SECONDARY CONTAINMENTREQUIREMENTS• Tank secondary containment requires 110 percent of the volume of the largest tank contained within the dike with the displacement volumes of the tanks accounted for.• Secondary containment needs to allows for additional freeboard for containment of precipitation in the containment dikes.
  • 127. Secondary Containment
  • 128. Secondary Containment
  • 129. Drum Containment
  • 130. RACK SPILL PAD CONTAINMENT• If transport truck makes hard connect to tank – the tank has a “Rack” and must have spill pad containment.• Spill Pad containment must be large enough to contain the largest compartment of the truck unloading at the petroleum facility.
  • 131. Spill Pad Containment
  • 132. §112.3 PREPARE &IMPLEMENT A PLAN• The facility owner/operator must prepare a SPCC Plan: • In writing • In accordance with §112.7 & any other applicable sections of 40 CFR part 112
  • 133. §112.3(c) MOBILE FACILITIES• Onshore & offshore mobile facilities must prepare, implement & maintain a Plan as required by the rule • Amend & implement a Plan, if necessary to ensure compliance with the rule, on or before 11/20/09 • Can be a general Plan; a new Plan is not required each time a facilities moves to a new site
  • 134. §112.3(d) PECERTIFICATION• A licensed PE must review & certify a Plan & technical amendments• The certification does not relieve the owner/operator of his duty to prepare & fully implement a Plan
  • 135. PE “ATTESTATION”• With certification, the PE attests that: • PE is familiar with the rule requirements • PE or his agent visited & examined the facility • The Plan has been prepared in accordance with good engineering practice, including the consideration of applicable industry standards, & with the requirements of 40 CFR part 112 • PE allow flexibility in meeting many rules provisions by providing equivalent environmental protection or developing contingency plans. • Procedures for required inspections & testing have been established • The Plan is adequate for the facility
  • 136. §112.3(e)(1) PLANREQUIREMENTS• Maintain a complete copy of the Plan: • At the facility if it is attended at least 4 hours per day • At the nearest field office if the facility is attended for less than 4 hours per day• Have the Plan available to the RA for onsite review during normal working hours
  • 137. PLAN REVIEW & EVALUATION• Complete once every 5 years from the date facility becomes subject to the rule • If a facility was in operation on or before 8/16/2002, 5 years from the date of your last review required by the rule• Amend Plan within 6 months to include more effective prevention & control technology• Implement ASAP, but no later than 6 months of amendment
  • 138. DOCUMENTING PLAN REVIEW• Must document Plan review & evaluation• Sign statement at beginning or end of Plan or in a log or an appendix • “I have completed review & evaluation of the SPCC Plan for (name of facility) on (date), and will (will not) amend the Plan as a result.”• PE must certify any technical amendment to Plan • Qualified Facilities exception
  • 139. Smaller Oil Storage Facilities
  • 140. §112.6 QUALIFIED FACILITYPLAN REQUIREMENTS• Smaller oil storage facility that is eligible for streamlined regulatory requirements • Self-certified SPCC Plan instead of one reviewed & certified by a Professional Engineer • Streamlined integrity testing & facility security requirements• Must meet eligibility criteria to use alternative option• EPA’s recent amendment would divide this group of facilities into tiers • Requirements described here would apply to “Tier I” facilities
  • 141. §112.6 QUALIFIED FACILITYPLAN REQUIREMENTS (CONT.)• EPA’s recent amendment would divide this group of facilities into tiers • Requirements described here would apply to “Tier II” facilities • Additional relief would be provided to “Tier I”
  • 142. SELF-CERTIFICATION OPTION FOR QUALIFIED FACILITIES• Allow facility owners that store <=10K oil & meet other “qualifying” criteria to self-certify their SPCC Plans, in lieu of review & certification by a PE• “Qualifying” criteria – • NO discharges for 3 years prior or since becoming subject to the requirements• Under this approach, owners may not deviate from any requirements under §112.7(a)(2) (can’t use EE) & may not make impracticability determinations under §112.7(d)
  • 143. REPORTABLE DISCHARGEHISTORY• A single discharge of oil to navigable water or adjoining shorelines exceeding 1,000 gallons OR,• Two discharges to navigable water or adjoining shorelines each exceeding 42 gallons within any 12 month period• Count only the amount that reaches navigable water or adjoining shorelines
  • 144. REPORTABLE DISCHARGE HISTORY (CONT.)• Oil discharges resulting from natural disasters, acts of war, or terrorism are not included• Sabotage & vandalism are not beyond facilities control• Self-certifying facilities do not automatically lose eligibility if they have a reportable spill, the RA has the authority to require a Plan amendment
  • 145. SELF-CERTIFICATION• Owner/operator attests they are familiar with the rule & have visited & examined the facility• The Plan has been prepared in accordance with accepted & sound industry practices & standards• Procedures for required inspections & testing have been established• The facility meets the qualifying criteria
  • 146. SELF-CERTIFICATION(CONT.)• The Plan does not deviate from rule requirements except as allowed & as certified by a PE• The Plan & staff responsible for implementing it have the full approval of management & the o/o has committed the necessary resources to fully implement the Plan• The Plan is being fully implemented
  • 147. TECHNICAL AMENDMENTS• May self-certify technical amendments as long as a PE has not certified the portion being changed• If a PE certified the affected portion of the Plan, then a PE must certify the technical amendment
  • 148. Drum Containment
  • 149. Tank Containment
  • 150. TIER I SUMMARY If a facility… And a facility… Then the owner/operator of the facility……has 10,000 …meets the oil …may prepare a self-certified SPCC Plangallons or less discharge history instead of one reviewed & certified by ain aggregate criteria Professional Engineer (PE)aboveground …may meet tailored facility security & tankoil storage integrity inspection requirements without PEcapacity certification …may prepare a Plan which includes PE- certified environmentally equivalent measures or impracticability determinations that would require PE certifications for only the portions dealing with environmental equivalence & impracticability determinations. The remaining portions of the Plan could be self-certified by the facility owner/operator
  • 151. ASSISTANCE, SERVICES & PRODUCTS• Brams Engineering Services– Assistance drafting SPCC plans • Inspects and Prepares SPCC Plans • Prepares Tier I SPCC Plans for Owner/Operator Self Certification • Prepares Tier II SPCC Plans for Owner/Operators • Designs Tank Containment Basins • Responses to EPA Violation Letters
  • 152. U.S. EPA – Penalties & Fines
  • 153. What Does it take to fill out the Tier 1 Plan?
  • 154. QUESTIONS & CONTACT INFO Martin Bonnell, PE Senior Civil Engineer Brams Engineering, LLC 172 Spruce Drive Apple Valley, MN 55124 952-261-9351 martybonnell@charter.net
  • 155. Have you serviced yourFarm Policy for 2013 AgQuest Insurance is an Equal Opportunity Provider
  • 156. Major Components of a Farm Insurance Contract/Policy Declaration Page
  • 157. Dwelling
  • 158. Other Structure
  • 159. Personal Property
  • 160. Loss of Use
  • 161. Scheduled Farm Property
  • 162. Unscheduled Farm Property
  • 163. Farm Structures
  • 164. Farm Liability
  • 165. Medical Coverage
  • 166. Concerns of anInsurance Contract
  • 167. Debris Removal
  • 168. Custom Farming
  • 169. CO-INSURANCE CLAUSE
  • 170. Farms Becoming Corporations
  • 171. Thank-you! Contact Information Harvest Land: 800-245-5819 AgQuest: 877-626-7453The full presentation will be available on HLC & AgQuest website’s.

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