Hang on! Stand back for a second... This is how half of our pupils want to travel... Only 2% of adults and I doubt close to half would say they want to cycle... Us adults have been conditioned by our environment, experiences, perceptions and perceived expectations. But half our pupils want to cycle. And barely 3% actually do so.
Cuts across departments – at least six Ministers Frances Fitzgerald Alan Kelly Leo Varadkar James Reilly James Ring Michael Noonan At least six Ministers Societal obesity
Black line is car; blue line is walking; red line is bus; Green line is cycling At primary school level it in the period 1986 – 2002 it was a largely story of children been driven instead of walking. At secondary school cycling colapsed (15 per cent to 3 per cent); walking slipped significantly, and again car rose sharply.
Images car companies and their advertisers don’t want us to see? Are they fair comment?
&quot;The impacts of combustion emissions on air quality and climate – From coal to biofuels and beyond“ – title of Gaffney and Marley article
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/1130/1224284430098.html In Cork, Dublin, Limerick and Galway there is the scope – and the need – to get the public transport figure above 30%
Dublin Bus: 128.3m journeys in 2009 - http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2010/0830/1224277854676.html DART/commuter rail: 90,000 a day (or 33m a year)  Luas: 74,000 a day (or 27m a year) 
Misallocation of resources 252km one way Cork/Dublin the toll between Calais and Paris is set at 6.6 cents per km (the distance between these two French destinations is 292 km and the 2011 charge is €19.30; http://about-france.com/travel.htm#tolls)
WHO (2007) “Economic assessment of transport infrastructure and policies: Methodological guidance on the economic appraisal of health effects related to walking and cycling”, Copenhagen: Denmark.
For the methodology used see: “Criteria for Mitigation of Climate Impact from Food Production and Distribution”, 5 Oct 2010, available on http://www.klimatmarkningen.se
Empowering community and voluntary transport organisation, in an approach that would mirror developments across northern England and Scotland, where examples in Inverness.
A shift to active commuting delivers energy and emissions reductions together with ancillary benefits Focusing on projects that lend themselves to opening ceremonies and fanfare ‘hard hat and ribbon’ (new rail lines, electric vehicle trips etc) would see us miss the wood for the trees – and our 2020 targets
Smarter Travel: what’s it all about?
Southern & Eastern Regional Assembly - Annual Conference Fri 27 May 2011 Mermaid Arts Centre, Bray, Co Wicklow James Nix Irish Environmental Network PlanBetter www.ien.ie www.planbetter.ie
Smarter Travel: what’s it all about? Starting with our pockets...
The An Taisce Green Schools Travel Programme now covers around 150,000 pupils – or 650 schools, 307 of which joined the programme September 2010
Steep fall in car use in participating schools <ul><li>Figures from 2008/2009 show the numbers driven all the way to school dropped from 57% to 44% (a 13% mode share fall) </li></ul><ul><li>Replaced by increases in walking, up from 17.5% to 25% (a 7.5% increase), with the balance made up of higher shares for Park ‘n Stride and other mixed modes </li></ul><ul><li>Cycling did not win any of the car falloff at aggregate level (constant at 3% over the survey period) but... </li></ul>
Cycling (Green Schools) <ul><li>Cycling jumped to a modal share of almost 7% where cycle training and cycle parking was provided (up from 2.5% to 6.7% in rural schools, and from 1% to 6.6% in urban schools – after training & parking) </li></ul><ul><li>When asked, 87% of pupils want to travel by sustainable modes (cycle / walk / bus); cycling to school is the 1 st choice of 50% of pupils </li></ul><ul><li>Clearly, there is huge pent-up demand to cycle to school we are not meeting </li></ul><ul><li>Above sourced from 2008/09 Green Schools Travel report </li></ul>
Challenging perceptions (Green Schools) <ul><li>The most formidable barrier to walking and cycling appears to be misconception of distance: 40% of pupils say it is too far, but 76% of pupils live within 3km of their school!) </li></ul><ul><li>After distance (which is at 40%) the second highest reason for not walking or cycling to school is absence of permission; “not allowed” registered 15% </li></ul><ul><li>Above sourced from baseline research for Green Schools Travel </li></ul>
Graphs sourced from Chaos at the Crossroads 1986 – 2002 In primary schools walking lost ground to car In secondary schools cycling collapsed, walking slipped, again with car gaining rapidly
Focusing on pupils <ul><li>It’s easier to change! </li></ul><ul><li>The data show younger people want to change the way they go to school – but obviously it is not a situation they entirely control </li></ul><ul><li>Leaving aside energy and emissions, change is chronically required for health reasons </li></ul><ul><li>Ireland’s adult obesity rate (24%) is now higher than in 18 states in the US </li></ul>
Pursuing the link to energy: compare cycling and biofuels <ul><li>“ 60% of commutes by car are less than 10 km long. If half cycled to work instead, emissions would fall by 7%” - Richard Tol of the ESRI </li></ul><ul><li>Contrast cycling with biofuels where Tol notes that if we increased the mandatory blend from 3% to 10% (in energy terms) emissions would also fall by 7%, but here we have to “ignore all the evidence that biofuels are bad for the environment and bad for poor people” </li></ul>
But biofuels don’t actually deliver aggregate emissions reductions <ul><li>First, there is no net CO2 saving. While "the emission of CO2 per gallon of fuel burned is lower than for fossil fuels, the CO2 emissions per mile are not“ - Gaffney & Marley (2009) Atmospheric Environment (43) 23 – 36 </li></ul><ul><li>Second, there are higher particulate matter (PM) emissions: "in general PM emissions are seen to increase with the use of biodiesel” – Gaffney & and Marley, from above </li></ul>
Pursuing the link to energy: electric cars (EVs) <ul><li>If 10% of cars were all-electric, transport emissions would only fall by 2% (ESRI) </li></ul><ul><li>Work done at UCC shows it may even be a smaller fall (the finding there was a 2% reduction in emissions from cars, as distinct from transport emissions) </li></ul>
Conclusion on biofuels and EVs <ul><li>It’s doubtful if biofuels can deliver any aggregate emissions reduction at all </li></ul><ul><li>EVs may be able to deliver a small reduction (in the region of 2%) but, as the figures show, in the overall bid to reduce emissions from transport their contribution is somewhat marginal </li></ul>
Ireland’s car dominated cities <ul><li>In Dublin: </li></ul><ul><li>56% commute by car </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(52% drivers; 4% passengers) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>21% public transport </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(14% bus; 7% heavy rail or </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>tram) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>17% walk or cycle </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(13% walk; 4% cycle) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Above Sourced from Census 2006 </li></ul><ul><li>Good practice: </li></ul><ul><li>30% by car </li></ul><ul><li>30% public transport </li></ul><ul><li>30 to 35% walk or cycle (e.g. Copenhagen, Freiburg, etc) </li></ul>
14% by bus and 7% by rail in Dublin <ul><li>These figures, from Census 2006, are based on the 4 Dublin local authorities aggregated </li></ul><ul><li>There is some correlation with daily figures for transport operators but data is poor because we are not counting private bus companies properly! Note also journeys beginning in Kildare, Meath, Wicklow will raise rail figures more than bus </li></ul><ul><li>350,000 daily Dublin Bus journeys (128m p.a.) </li></ul><ul><li>165,000 daily rail journeys (90,000 a day on DART/ commuter rail and 75,000 on Luas) </li></ul>
Four choices? <ul><li>Metro North </li></ul><ul><li>DART Underground </li></ul><ul><li>Luas link </li></ul><ul><li>Rail spur off northern line to Dublin airport </li></ul><ul><li>Analysing them: </li></ul><ul><li>Metro North (too expensive) </li></ul><ul><li>DART Underground (still unaffordable) </li></ul><ul><li>Luas link (urban sterilisation effect: dead streets) </li></ul><ul><li>Rail spur off northern line to Dublin airport (would be slower than a coach or cab via port tunnel) </li></ul>
The case for bus investment (option 5) <ul><li>A programme of QBC-plus that has as its goal to bring public transport usage above 30% in Dublin and above 15% in Cork, Limerick, Galway and Waterford </li></ul><ul><li>Necessary, affordable and deliverable within the lifetime of the government, i.e. by 2016, while providing health and well-being benefits </li></ul><ul><li>With QBC-plus, city wide networks can be delivered using new bus technology (at a cost of €7.5m per km compared to €33m a km for tram) </li></ul>
Nantes <ul><li>800,000 pop. in metro area (285,000 the in city itself) </li></ul><ul><li>In 2006 three light rail lines in place; value for money appraisal pointed to BRT for Line 4 </li></ul><ul><li>Line 4 is now carrying 30,000 passengers a day </li></ul><ul><li>Peak time frequency increased to every 3 mins </li></ul>
Four ideas introduced <ul><li>Multi-point tolling </li></ul><ul><li>Updating the cost-benefit analysis process </li></ul><ul><li>Food emission labels </li></ul><ul><li>Volunteer transport </li></ul>
Multi-point tolling <ul><li>We need consistent distance-based road charging </li></ul><ul><li>Background: hopelessly inconsistent tolling, e.g. 3 tolls Blanchardstown - Shannon (€5.60 for a car), but none from Dun Laoghaire to Rosslare. No apparent rationale. Toll diversion (Slane, Suir, etc) </li></ul><ul><li>Charge 4 cent a km for all four-lane road, e.g. €10 for Cork / Dublin (French charges are 6 – 7 cents per km) </li></ul><ul><li>Replace all existing toll booths and thereby end toll diversion, which is responsible for inflating demand for additional roads </li></ul>
Updating cost benefit analysis <ul><li>Health impacts ignored in transport projects </li></ul><ul><li>Methodologies already exist to remedy this, e.g. World Health Organisation (2007) </li></ul><ul><li>It’s a question of decision-makers in Ireland making the change </li></ul>
Food emissions labelling <ul><li>Food is labelled based on its CO2 emissions performance within its class </li></ul><ul><li>Food emissions labelling adopted in Sweden </li></ul><ul><li>Consumers aided choosing within a food group - but not between groups (e.g. fish v. meat) </li></ul><ul><li>Given transport emissions, domestic produce is likely to perform well if sustainably produced </li></ul><ul><li>The Swedish Farmers Federation is on board as are Swedish food companies </li></ul><ul><li>Methodology published in October 2010 </li></ul>
2009 Exports Imports Vegetables 45,159 € 103 m 38,036 € 66.5 m Tonnes Value Poultry/ Poultry meat 38 , 642 € 62m 53,383 € 16 9 m Tonnes Pigmeat 82,476 € 142 m 38,723 € 10 2m Tonnes Frozen Vegetables 1 , 236 € 1.6m 44 , 552 € 43. 4 m Tonnes
Volunteer transport <ul><li>Current rural transport initiative began as a pilot programme; it involves a high cost per passenger and calls for its expansion were rejected </li></ul><ul><li>State could purchase vehicles and grant them to organisations where there is a proven capacity to deliver (Scottish examples, e.g. Inverness) </li></ul><ul><li>Empowering communities to combat isolation </li></ul>
To recap and conclude <ul><li>There is huge pent up demand to cycle to school for which we are not catering </li></ul><ul><li>Only a significant shift to active commuting, particularly cycling, offers large scale emissions savings (7% if half of those commuting less than 10km turn to cycling – how long to achieve it?) </li></ul><ul><li>Comprehensive investment in bus networks right across Ireland represents 5 th investment option </li></ul><ul><li>Changes are needed to reform tolling, cost benefit analysis, perverse trade, and community/rural transport </li></ul>
And let’s not forget the ancillary benefits Thank you Some people I’d like to thank – Katrin, Miles, Justin and Tanya. [email_address]
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