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Npv2214(1)
 

Npv2214(1)

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    Npv2214(1) Npv2214(1) Presentation Transcript

    • Value and Money When we talk about the value of any asset we use Monetary value as the common denominator The value of cash is easy to understand A bank account with €10m in it is worth €10M The value of other assets is more difficult to ascertain. How much are bank loans transferred to NAMA with a book value of €77 Billion really worth?
    • What can you do with your Money ? Spend it (Consume it)
    • If you don’t spend your money? You save or invest it. Why would you do this? So that you could consume more at a later date. Investing involves foregoing current consumption in anticipation of greater future consumption.
    • Wealth  The maximum that you could spend today is your wealth.  Definition: An individuals wealth is equal to the present value of all his future income plus his existing assets. This is the maximum amount that he can consume now.
    • The needs the Shareholder/Investor To maximise wealth This is achieved by maximising the value of his investments. If all companies that the shareholder has invested in maximise their own value this maximises the value of the investor’s investments and hence his/her wealth.
    • What determines Value ? An Asset’s value is determined by the benefits that its owner derives for holding it. The benefits from a business asset are represented by its future cash flows. Example: an apartment owned in a rental area derives its value from the rent it can command.
    • Cash Flows and Value The greater the future cash flows that are expected to accrue from ownership of an asset the greater its value But the future sometimes does not turn out as expected – what if there is a chance the asset will not generate the amount of cash that you expect or may be nothing at all! The riskier the future cash flows from a asset, ceteris paribus, the less valuable it is.
    • The time value of money The timing of cash flows significantly affects their value. The sooner a cash flow is received the more valuable it is.
    • Why are far off cash flows less valuable? Say you are offered €50,000 to be lodged in your bank account anytime in the next 50 years. When will you take it?  Obviously ASAP  You have things that you could do with €50K now (immediate consumption needs)  A nice car would be a lot more useful now that in 50 years time.  You could be dead in 50 years time. People prefer to consume now rather than later.
    • Three Reasons €1 in the future is lessvaluable than expectation of €1 now Can invest €1 in a bank to get more in the future Inflation: a euro now will generally purchase more than a euro in the future. Risk/Uncertainty  Cannot be absolutely sure that you will receive the euro in the future  Cannot be sure how much you will be able to purchase with a euro in the future relative to now.
    • Because of the above three reasons:money or capital has a cost The opportunity cost of capital is the price of getting money (capital) today rather than in the future. For example if you borrow money from a bank: this is a cost of capital. Alternatively you are foregoing putting the money in the bank and earning interest. Large companies can usually get money from different sources. For the moment let us just assume that there is one big bank or market that provides cash and charges the cost of capital.
    • Perfect Capital Market The last assumption is effectively assuming that we have a perfect capital market and complete certainty Perfect capital market  You can lend or borrow as much as you want  Information is costless and freely available  No taxes or other transactions cost  Borrowing rate = lending rate  Instantaneous access to the market. If we allow assume certainty the cost of capital is just the interest rate.
    • Investors’ ObjectivesInvestors are trying to achieve two things:1. More consumption – maximisation of wealth will achieve this.2. A consumption pattern that suits them – this involves maximising the utility for a given level of wealth.
    • Spreading consumption over time – in avery simple one period model If an investor has €100 and the interest rate in the capital market is 10% he can consume that €100 now. Alternatively, he can invest the €100 in the capital market and consume €110 in one years time. So we get a sense that €100 now is equivalent to €110 in one years time.
    • The interest rate in the capital market reflects the price of money inthe future in terms of money today.If i = interest rate = 10% then £100 now is worth (1.1)£100 = £110 inone years time.Similarly the present value of £110 to be received in one years time is£110/(1.1) = £100.The rate of return on the £100 in the above situation is clearly 10% 110 - 100 = 10% 100
    • Many One-Period Investments Suppose that as well as investing in the market an individual could invest in several real assets offering the following payoffs.Investment Outlay in t0 Payoff in t1 ReturnA 100 110 10%B 100 125 25%C 100 150 50%D 100 200 100%
    • How much should the investor invest? If there is no capital market it depends on his or her own consumption preferences If there is a capital market s/he should invest in real assets so long as the return on these assets exceed the return s/he could earn in the capital market
    • Extension of the four project example toinclude a capital market Assume the capital market pays 20%. An investor faced with the projects A B C D outlined above would only invest in D C and B. He would reject A since it gives return of only 10% while he could get 20% in the capital market.
    • Cash Flow After Investing in D B & C This would give him the following consumption pattern assuming that T0 T1 he did not use the Cash 400 0 capital market. Invest 300 475 Consume 100 475
    • Cash Flow After Investing in D B & C This would give him the following consumption pattern assuming that T0 T1 he DID use the capital Cash 400 0 market other than as an Invest 300 investment for his final 475 €100. Invest in Market 100 120 Total 0 595
    • Cash Flow from in investing in ABCD T0 T1 Cash 400 0 Invest 400 Payoff 585 Consume 0 585
    • Terminal Values We have compared the terminal values or cash flows at the end of the project If we invest in all four projects. The terminal value is just the cash inflows at t1 from those projects that is 585. If we invest in only the three best projects we must invest the remaining 100 in the capital market at 20%. This gives a terminal value of 475 + 100(1.2) = 595
    • Comparison of both Strategies To compare the two investment strategies we must bring the cash flows from each to a common period. We did this in the previous slide by ensuring all cash flows were received at t1 – the end of the project – (we compute the Terminal Value). The normal procedure is to get the present value of the cash flows
    • The PV of Cash Flows from investingin D C & B only T0 T1 PV Cash 400 0 Invest 300 Payoff 475 NCF 100 475Divide By 1 1.2 PV 100 396 496
    • PV of Cash Flows from A B C D T0 T1 PV Cash 400 0 Invest 400 Payoff 585 NCF 0 585 1 Divide by 1.2 0 488 488
    • Investment Decision Rule Invest in all projects whose rate of return is greater than that of the capital market. If you invest in a project with a rate of return that is less than the opportunity cost of capital this will reduce your wealth. This is precisely what happens when you invest in project A. In the example above the individual’s wealth is €496 if he invests in B C and D but only €488 if he invests in all four projects.
    • The (Internal) Rate of Return Rule The above rule is called the internal rate of return (IRR) rule. Invest in all projects that have a rate of return greater than the expected rate of return in the capital market (cost of capital).