Climate Change, Mitigation and   Adaptation and Key PastoralResource Management in Pastoral             Areas        Danie...
Climate change manifests itself through:• Changes in average climatic conditions. For  example, some regions may become dr...
• Emissions of greenhouse gas from human  activities are a significant driver of climate  change, and that climate change ...
• Collective evidence suggests that the  observed changes over the past fifty years can  be mostly attributed to human act...
• There has been a general trend of  atmospheric warming in Ethiopia. According  to the National Meteorological Agency (NM...
• In the Ethiopian highland, the temperature has  been increasing by 0.3ºC per decade (Muna,  2006).• In the southern lowl...
• Coupled with declining and unreliable patterns in  the rainfall, increasing temperatures in pastoral  regions will exace...
An analysis of the average annual rainfall trends in  the past four or five decades in Ethiopia shows a  more or less cons...
• changes in the seasonality, distribution and  regularity of rainfall than the overall amount of  rainfall.• The main rai...
• Of all the environmental and socio-economic shocks  and stressors drought is the most common  adversely impacted sustain...
• Previous droughts and the frequency of  rainfall deviation from the average suggest  that drought occur every 3-5 years ...
• In recent years, flood hazards in Ethiopia have  become more frequent and of increasing severity.• For instance, floods ...
• recent changes in the climate system have  brought about rapid changes which have  affected natural resources,
• Although there are many other potential drivers  the contribution of changing weather patterns  (such as more frequent d...
• The decline in the amount of rainfall, the  erratic nature of the rains and even the failure  of the main or short rainy...
• Climate change is expected to affect disease and  pest distribution, range, prevalence, incidence  and seasonality but t...
• Drought• Declining rangeland is reducing the amount  and quality of feed• Less water is making the situation more  diffi...
• Mitigation is tackling climate change by limiting greenhouse  gas emissions.• Vulnerability: the degree to which a syste...
• The ability to respond and adjust to actual or  potential impacts of changing climate conditions  in ways that moderate ...
• Adaptation is a broad concept covering actions by  individuals, communities, private companies and  public bodies such a...
• A serious disruption of the functioning of a  community or a society involving widespread  human, material, economic or ...
• The concept and practice of reducing disaster  risks through systematic efforts to analyze and  manage the causal factor...
• The ability of a system, community or society  exposed to hazards to resist, absorb,  accommodate to and recover from th...
• Mismanagement in natural resource contributes to the  vulnerability of human systems to disaster, and that  enhanced man...
• Today, there are two main disciplines  concerned with human vulnerability to  climate extremes –those of climate change ...
• Disaster risk and climate change reinforce each  other.• Disaster risk is an intrinsic characteristic of  human society,...
• Recognition of the linkages between climate  variability, climate change, and extreme events  has fostered a small but g...
• Advocates using the tools, methods and  policies of disaster risk reduction as a basis for  addressing the risk aspects ...
• At the same time, the climate change  community offers a growing body of research  and experience on adaptation as a soc...
• Given these overlapping areas of expertise  and empirical experience, there have been  numerous calls for increased coll...
• strategies for disaster risk reduction and climate  change adaptation have until now evolved largely in  isolation from ...
• Climate change adaptation has a somewhat shorter history,  emerging in the United Nations Framework Convention on  Clima...
• The Bali Action Plan (BAP), agreed upon at the In the  BAP, risk management and disaster risk reduction are  identified ...
• Climate change will compound existing  poverty. Its adverse impacts will be most  striking in the developing nations bec...
• Within these countries, the poorest, who have the  least resources and the least capacity to adapt, are the  most vulner...
• Developing adaptive capacity to minimize the  damage to livelihoods from climate change is  a necessary strategy to comp...
• Adaptation should not be approached as a  separate activity, isolated from other  environmental and socioeconomic concer...
Changes in mean                       Impact on povertyclimate, variability,extreme eventsIncreased temperature           ...
THANK YOU10/27/2011               39
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Climate change & disaster risk managment in Pastoral areas by daniel temesgen

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Pastoralist areas are Vulnerable to climate change hazardsand disater risks

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Climate change & disaster risk managment in Pastoral areas by daniel temesgen

  1. 1. Climate Change, Mitigation and Adaptation and Key PastoralResource Management in Pastoral Areas Daniel Temesgen (PhD) 15-16 Nov 2011 Adama
  2. 2. Climate change manifests itself through:• Changes in average climatic conditions. For example, some regions may become drier or wetter on average• Changes in climate variability : rainfall & Temperature variation• Changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events .• Changes in sea levels
  3. 3. • Emissions of greenhouse gas from human activities are a significant driver of climate change, and that climate change poses a threat to current development.• The Focus on limiting greenhouse gas emissions associated with human activity, particularly the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas.
  4. 4. • Collective evidence suggests that the observed changes over the past fifty years can be mostly attributed to human activities.• The warming trend in the global average surface temperature is expected to increases in the range of 1.4 to 5.8 ºC by 2100 in comparison to 1990 (IPCC 2001a).
  5. 5. • There has been a general trend of atmospheric warming in Ethiopia. According to the National Meteorological Agency (NMA, 2007) the average minimum temperature in Ethiopia has been increasing by 0.37ºC per decade in the last sixty years.
  6. 6. • In the Ethiopian highland, the temperature has been increasing by 0.3ºC per decade (Muna, 2006).• In the southern lowland regions of Borena, Guji and South Omo temperature has increased by 0.4ºC per decade in the period 1950-2000• the temperature increase in the lowland regions has been much faster with bigger implications.
  7. 7. • Coupled with declining and unreliable patterns in the rainfall, increasing temperatures in pastoral regions will exacerbate the water and feed shortages thus making the environment more and more vulnerable to increased aridity and degradations.
  8. 8. An analysis of the average annual rainfall trends in the past four or five decades in Ethiopia shows a more or less constant trend (NMA, 2007).• However, an increasing trend of rainfall was observed in central Ethiopia• an overall declining trend was recorded in the water stressed northern and southern lowland regions.
  9. 9. • changes in the seasonality, distribution and regularity of rainfall than the overall amount of rainfall.• The main rainy season is also seen as becoming progressively shorter –• it starts later and finishes earlier than it used to be – and the rains in general are becoming more unpredictable.
  10. 10. • Of all the environmental and socio-economic shocks and stressors drought is the most common adversely impacted sustainable livelihoods of pastoralists.• The eastern lowlands of Ethiopia are vulnerable to drought and there have been notable droughts in this part of the country throughout human history
  11. 11. • Previous droughts and the frequency of rainfall deviation from the average suggest that drought occur every 3-5 years in the ;low land regions of Ethiopia• every 8-10 years for the whole country (Haile 1988, 90).
  12. 12. • In recent years, flood hazards in Ethiopia have become more frequent and of increasing severity.• For instance, floods in 2006 have battered huge portions of eastern, southern and northern Ethiopia.• Floods that have also occurred in 2007 and 2008 have caused huge havoc on the livelihoods of many rural people.
  13. 13. • recent changes in the climate system have brought about rapid changes which have affected natural resources,
  14. 14. • Although there are many other potential drivers the contribution of changing weather patterns (such as more frequent droughts, increasing temperatures, and shortening rainy seasons that prevent grass growth and propagation) could be significant
  15. 15. • The decline in the amount of rainfall, the erratic nature of the rains and even the failure of the main or short rainy seasons, aggravated by climate change, is creating serious water shortage and stress
  16. 16. • Climate change is expected to affect disease and pest distribution, range, prevalence, incidence and seasonality but the degree of change remains highly uncertain .• through changes in temperature, precipitation, humidity and wind patterns• Heat stress and drought are likely to have further negative impacts on animal and human health and disease resistance
  17. 17. • Drought• Declining rangeland is reducing the amount and quality of feed• Less water is making the situation more difficult.• Lead to Animals venerability to endemic and newly emerging varieties of animal diseases, which can be linked to the changing climate and the extreme weather conditions
  18. 18. • Mitigation is tackling climate change by limiting greenhouse gas emissions.• Vulnerability: the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes• It is dependent on a wide variety of institutional, economic and environmental factors, not all of which are linked directly with the climate
  19. 19. • The ability to respond and adjust to actual or potential impacts of changing climate conditions in ways that moderate harm or take advantage of any positive opportunities that the climate may afford.• Adaptation is about reducing the risks posed by climate change to people’s lives and livelihoods.
  20. 20. • Adaptation is a broad concept covering actions by individuals, communities, private companies and public bodies such as governments.• Successful adaptation can reduce vulnerability by building on and strengthening existing coping mechanisms and assets, targeting climate change vulnerability with specific measures, and integrating vulnerability reduction into wider policies
  21. 21. • A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society involving widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources.
  22. 22. • The concept and practice of reducing disaster risks through systematic efforts to analyze and manage the causal factors of disasters, including through reduced exposure to hazards ,lessened vulnerability of people and property, wise management of land and the environment, and improved preparedness for adverse events.
  23. 23. • The ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate to and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions.
  24. 24. • Mismanagement in natural resource contributes to the vulnerability of human systems to disaster, and that enhanced management can provide a tool for vulnerability reduction.• conservation of particular natural systems will in many circumstances offer adaptation opportunities.• A range of the tools for implementing effective management of natural areas have been developed are available.
  25. 25. • Today, there are two main disciplines concerned with human vulnerability to climate extremes –those of climate change and disaster management.
  26. 26. • Disaster risk and climate change reinforce each other.• Disaster risk is an intrinsic characteristic of human society, arising from the combination of natural and human factors and subject to exacerbation or reduction by human agency.• While the adverse impacts of climate change on society may increase disaster risk, disasters themselves erode environmental and social resilience, and thus increase vulnerability to climate change..
  27. 27. • Recognition of the linkages between climate variability, climate change, and extreme events has fostered a small but growing literature on the connections between disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. This literature shows that there is a great potential for coordinated efforts towards addressing adaptation. The disaster risk community• .
  28. 28. • Advocates using the tools, methods and policies of disaster risk reduction as a basis for addressing the risk aspects of climate change. Methodologies and experiences in working with vulnerable people and their needs through community-based initiatives are emerging as a cornerstone for disaster risk reduction
  29. 29. • At the same time, the climate change community offers a growing body of research and experience on adaptation as a social process, with an emphasis on strategies and measures to reduce vulnerability and enhance the capacity to adapt to shocks and stressors.• This includes initiatives aimed at building resilience through community-based adaptation.
  30. 30. • Given these overlapping areas of expertise and empirical experience, there have been numerous calls for increased collaboration between the two communities.
  31. 31. • strategies for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation have until now evolved largely in isolation from each other through different conceptual and institutional frameworks• The disaster risk management community has gone through various paradigm shifts since the early 1970s.• Throughout these stages the “disaster” or humanitarian community has refined its practical and conceptual approach from managing disasters by addressing the hazards, to understanding and addressing the underlying factors and vulnerabilities that turn hazards into disasters, culminating in the disaster risk reduction framework.
  32. 32. • Climate change adaptation has a somewhat shorter history, emerging in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) signed in 1992. However, the UNFCCC and the Kyoto protocol predominantly addressed 18 climate change mitigation and policies and measures to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases.• Recently that adaptation came to the forefront as a key concern within the UNFCCC.109 The possibilities for Least Developed Countries to develop National Adaptation Programmes of Actions (NAPAs) and the Nairobi Work Program—a 5- year (2005-2010) initiative under the UNFCCC,110 were important first steps towards both enhancing the understanding communities of adaptation and catalyzing action on adaptation
  33. 33. • The Bali Action Plan (BAP), agreed upon at the In the BAP, risk management and disaster risk reduction are identified as important elements of climate change adaptation.• Further, the BAP emphasizes the importance of “building on synergies among activities and processes, as a means to support adaptation in a coherent and integrated manner.”• comprehensive formal scientific assessment has been undertaken yet of the research findings and empirically based activities that are emerging from the two
  34. 34. • Climate change will compound existing poverty. Its adverse impacts will be most striking in the developing nations because of their geographical and climatic conditions, their high dependence on natural resources, and their limited capacity to adapt to a changing climate.
  35. 35. • Within these countries, the poorest, who have the least resources and the least capacity to adapt, are the most vulnerable.• Projected changes in the incidence, frequency, intensity, and duration of climate extremes (for example, heat waves, heavy precipitation, and drought), as well as more gradual changes in the average climate, will notably threaten their livelihoods – further increasing inequities between the developing and developed worlds.• Climate change is therefore a serious threat to poverty eradication. However, current development strategies tend to overlook climate change risks.
  36. 36. • Developing adaptive capacity to minimize the damage to livelihoods from climate change is a necessary strategy to complement climate change mitigation efforts. Climate change adaptation – all those responses to climatic conditions that reduce vulnerability – is therefore an integral and urgent part of overall poverty reduction strategies.
  37. 37. • Adaptation should not be approached as a separate activity, isolated from other environmental and socioeconomic concerns that also impact on the development opportunities of the poor. A comprehensive approach is needed that takes into account potential synergistic and antagonistic effects between local and global environmental changes as well as socioeconomic factors.
  38. 38. Changes in mean Impact on povertyclimate, variability,extreme eventsIncreased temperature Lowered output and labour productivity, highand changes in precipitation reduce inequality, impacts on trade, and fiscal andagricultural and natural resources. macro-economic lead to reduced economic growth, and poverty- reducing effectsChange in precipitation, Reduced productivity and security of poorrun-off and variability people’s livelihood assets, and reduced accessleads to greater water stress. for the poor to their livelihood assetsIncreased incidence or intensity of Less effective coping strategies among the poor,climate related disasters leads to and increased vulnerability of poor peopledamage to assets and infrastructureTemperature, water andvegetation changescontribute to increasedprevalence of disease
  39. 39. THANK YOU10/27/2011 39

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