2050 “Series 12” Forecast July 10, 2009
Revised Approach <ul><li>SANDAG staff would attend council/board meetings, at the request of the jurisdiction’s SANDAG Boa...
Topics for Today’s Meeting <ul><li>Goals and purpose of the forecast </li></ul><ul><li>DRAFT growth projections: 2050 </li...
Goals of the SANDAG Forecast <ul><li>Produce a regionwide growth forecast that is accurate and reasonable. </li></ul><ul><...
Purpose of SANDAG’s Forecast
2050 RTP Development Process 2050 Regional Growth Forecast RTP Goals and Objectives Draft 2050 RTP Scenarios Draft 2050 RT...
DRAFT Results: Population, Housing, Jobs DOF 2050 Forecast: Population = 4.5 mil.
DRAFT Results: Age Structure  Male Female Populations: 2008 = 3.1 mil. 2050 = 4.4 mil.
Steps in the Forecasting Process: Phase 2:  Alternative land-use scenario for 2050 Phase 1: Existing Plans and Policies
Estimating Existing Plans and Policies (EP) Housing Capacity <ul><li>Starts with existing general plans </li></ul><ul><li>...
Anticipated Deficit by 2050 <ul><li>2050 scenario target: 450,000 additional units </li></ul>*NOTES: Draft is current as o...
Existing City/County Planned Housing Capacity: 2008
Remaining City/County Planned Housing Capacity: 2020
Remaining City/County Planned Housing Capacity: 2030
Remaining City/County Planned Housing Capacity: 2040
Remaining City/County Planned Housing Capacity: 2050
General Plan Updates (recently completed and in-progress)
Scenarios for Each Jurisdiction to Consider for 2050: <ul><li>Assume that 100% buildout of existing plans could occur </li...
Revised Approach <ul><li>SANDAG staff would attend council/board meetings, at the request of the jurisdiction’s SANDAG Boa...
Proposed Next Steps <ul><li>July – Sept. 2009: Meet with councils/board (as requested) </li></ul><ul><li>Sept. – Dec. 2009...
Recommendation <ul><li>The Board of Directors is asked to accept the revised 2050 Regional Growth Forecast outreach plan. ...
2050 “Series 12” Forecast July 10, 2009
Transit investment area (Transit Priority Area, plus I-15 Corridor)
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2050 San Diego Population and Housing Forecast

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2050 draft projections of population and housing presented to the SANDAG Board of Directors. This presentation was put together by the Regional Model staff.

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2050 San Diego Population and Housing Forecast

  1. 1. 2050 “Series 12” Forecast July 10, 2009
  2. 2. Revised Approach <ul><li>SANDAG staff would attend council/board meetings, at the request of the jurisdiction’s SANDAG Board member, to present the following information: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>2050 growth projections regionwide </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Regional capacity shortfall </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Jurisdiction’s anticipated future capacity based on information collected to date from jurisdiction’s planning department </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Land use scenarios developed with the TWG </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Solicit jurisdiction’s feedback on preferred land use scenario for later years of forecast </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. Topics for Today’s Meeting <ul><li>Goals and purpose of the forecast </li></ul><ul><li>DRAFT growth projections: 2050 </li></ul><ul><li>Capacity shortfall </li></ul><ul><li>Revised recommendation </li></ul><ul><li>Next Steps </li></ul>
  4. 4. Goals of the SANDAG Forecast <ul><li>Produce a regionwide growth forecast that is accurate and reasonable. </li></ul><ul><li>Produce a subregional forecast based on local plans, policies, and an understanding of likely development patterns in the future that could reasonably accommodate projected growth within the region. </li></ul>
  5. 5. Purpose of SANDAG’s Forecast
  6. 6. 2050 RTP Development Process 2050 Regional Growth Forecast RTP Goals and Objectives Draft 2050 RTP Scenarios Draft 2050 RTP and EIR Evaluation of Alternatives Final GHG Reduction Target Urban Core Transit Strategy Regional Climate Action Plan / Regional Energy Strategy Airport Multimodal Planning Other Regional / Corridor Studies Initial 2050 RTP / SCS / RHNA Alternatives Draft GHG Reduction Target
  7. 7. DRAFT Results: Population, Housing, Jobs DOF 2050 Forecast: Population = 4.5 mil.
  8. 8. DRAFT Results: Age Structure Male Female Populations: 2008 = 3.1 mil. 2050 = 4.4 mil.
  9. 9. Steps in the Forecasting Process: Phase 2: Alternative land-use scenario for 2050 Phase 1: Existing Plans and Policies
  10. 10. Estimating Existing Plans and Policies (EP) Housing Capacity <ul><li>Starts with existing general plans </li></ul><ul><li>Includes constraints to development: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Natural constraints: habitat, steep slopes, floodplains </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Built environment: existing buildings and infrastructure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Policies: parking requirements, setbacks, etc… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Other local considerations: redevelopment zones </li></ul></ul>
  11. 11. Anticipated Deficit by 2050 <ul><li>2050 scenario target: 450,000 additional units </li></ul>*NOTES: Draft is current as of June 26, 2009. “ Minimum net deficiency” is calculated based on a need for 450,000 housing capacity 2008-2050. If projected need is greater, deficit is also greater. scenario planned capacity expected minimum net deficiency* Phase 1: Series 12 DRAFT “EP” 380,000 70,000 Phase 2: 2050 Scenarios ? ?
  12. 12. Existing City/County Planned Housing Capacity: 2008
  13. 13. Remaining City/County Planned Housing Capacity: 2020
  14. 14. Remaining City/County Planned Housing Capacity: 2030
  15. 15. Remaining City/County Planned Housing Capacity: 2040
  16. 16. Remaining City/County Planned Housing Capacity: 2050
  17. 17. General Plan Updates (recently completed and in-progress)
  18. 18. Scenarios for Each Jurisdiction to Consider for 2050: <ul><li>Assume that 100% buildout of existing plans could occur </li></ul><ul><li>Assume that plan updates in progress today are adopted </li></ul><ul><li>Assume that planned multi-family lands within transit investment areas could redevelop up to a minimum 25 du/acre (or plan maximum, whichever is greater) </li></ul><ul><li>Assume that planned multi-family and commercial lands within a 10-minute walk of transit stations could redevelop to mixed use at a minimum of 25 du/acre (or plan maximum, whichever is greater) </li></ul><ul><li>Assume that local plans are updated to align with the current Smart Growth Concept Map </li></ul><ul><li>Assume density bonus potential in selected areas (with jurisdiction’s guidance) </li></ul><ul><li>Assume jurisdiction-specific alternative(s) </li></ul>
  19. 19. Revised Approach <ul><li>SANDAG staff would attend council/board meetings, at the request of the jurisdiction’s SANDAG Board member, to present the following information: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>2050 growth projections regionwide </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Regional capacity shortfall </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Jurisdiction’s anticipated future capacity based on information collected to date from jurisdiction’s planning department </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Land use alternatives developed with the TWG </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Solicit jurisdiction’s feedback on preferred land use scenario for later years of forecast </li></ul></ul>
  20. 20. Proposed Next Steps <ul><li>July – Sept. 2009: Meet with councils/board (as requested) </li></ul><ul><li>Sept. – Dec. 2009: Develop draft 2050 growth forecast </li></ul><ul><li>Jan. – Feb. 2010: Complete final forecast </li></ul>
  21. 21. Recommendation <ul><li>The Board of Directors is asked to accept the revised 2050 Regional Growth Forecast outreach plan. The outreach plan proposes meeting with each jurisdiction individually through council/board meetings (or by other means if preferred by the jurisdiction) on land use assumptions whereby each jurisdiction will have the option to select a preferred 2050 land use pattern. </li></ul>
  22. 22. 2050 “Series 12” Forecast July 10, 2009
  23. 23. Transit investment area (Transit Priority Area, plus I-15 Corridor)

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