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www.fukushimaaccident.net

Marc De Cort:
"The EURDEP system during the Fukushima accident: data analysis and information exchange and the
radiological consequences for Europe"

L'incidente avvenuto alla centrale nucleare di FUKUSHIMA, in Giappone, l'11 Marzo 2011, a differenza degli incidenti di Three Mile Island e di Chernobyl, ha scatenato un acceso dibattito sull'accettabilità pubblica dell'energia nucleare, anche in Paesi che sono stati storicamente fra i maggiori promotori di questa tecnologia.


Le ansie generate dai rilasci di radioattività nell'ambiente e dalla presenza di contaminazione negli alimenti, così come l'esito dell'incidente stesso, che sembrò -per diverse settimane- non dovesse risolversi mai positivamente, sono state amplificate dai mezzi di comunicazione di massa, oscurando perfino le enormi conseguenze umane e sociali del terremoto e dello tsunami.

La popolazione, e non solo quella giapponese, si è interrogata sui rischi dell'esposizione alle radiazioni, indirizzando alla comunità scientifica la propria legittima preoccupazione sui pericoli reali e sui rischi, e pretendendo dai tecnici e dagli scienziati risposte chiare e comprensibili, anche in merito alle possibili conseguenze sulle future generazioni.

Ma qual è stata l'entità del rilascio di radiazioni dalla centrale nucleare di FUKUSHIMA? quale è stata l'estensione della contaminazione terrestre e marina? che impatto sulla popolazione hanno avuto le restrizioni alimentari imposte dal Governo Giapponese? quali sono le dosi ricevute dagli Operatori della centrale e dalla popolazione circostante? quali le conseguenze sanitarie osservate ed ipotizzabili? e quali sono le lezioni principali che la comunità internazionale di Radioprotezione ha tratto da questo evento, per aiutare a sviluppare una percezione del rischio sempre più vicina alle legittime aspettative della popolazione?

Per rispondere a queste e ad altre domande, le quattro Associazioni italiane che si occupano di protezione dalle radiazioni, l'Associazione Italiana di Fisica Medica (AIFM), l'Associazione Italiana di Radioprotezione Medica (AIRM), l’Associazione Italiana di Radioprotezione (AIRP) e l'Associazione Nazionale Professionale Esperti Qualificati nella sorveglianza fisica di radioprotezione (ANPEQ) hanno organizzato un convegno, che avrà luogo il 14 settembre 2012 alla Villa Napoleonica nel Centro Congressi delle Ville PONTI, a Varese.



L'obbiettivo del Convegno, la cui partecipazione è aperta anche ai non addetti ai lavori (www.fukushimaaccident.net) è di trattare gli aspetti radioprotezionistici dell'incidente, indicando anche una linea per possibili futuri sviluppi del sistema della Radioprotezione, che si rendono necessari anche nei Paesi -come l'Italia- che non utilizzano più l'energia nucleare, ma che fanno tuttora vasto uso di sostanze radioattive per la medicina, l'industria e la ricerca.

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    04   de cort 04 de cort Presentation Transcript

    • The EURDEP system during the Fukushima accident: data analysis and information exchange and the radiological consequences for Europe Marc De Cort, DG JRC, ITU E.08, Ispra Peter Bossew, BfS, Berlin ITU - Institute for Transuranium Elements Ispra - Italy http://itu.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ 1
    • Content I. EC International information and data exchange systems - ECURIE, emergency response, information policy - EURDEP: dose rate, air monitors II. synopsis of observations in Europe - radionuclide concentrations in air - radionuclide ratios - estimation methods - fallout, foodstuff - dosesAIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 2
    • Part I: EC international information and data exchange systemsAIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 3
    • Council Decision 87/600 • The ECURIE system is the practical implementation of the Council Decision 87/600. It is the early notification system for radiological accidents of the EC. When a Member State decides to take counter-measures, it shall forthwith notify the Commission and the affected MS’s • This Council Decision was taken to assure a better preparedness and response to transboundary events as caused by the Chernobyl accident • The Council Decision is binding for EU Member States and foresees that each country nominates a Contact Point (CP, 24/7 available) and Competent Authority (CA). Other countries can subscribe on a voluntary basis. • The Commission shall immediately forward notifications to all the national competent authorities (CA) • Any MS will inform the Commission of the levels of radioactivity that it measuresAIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 4
    • ECURIE <> IAEA• The worldwide counterpart of ECURIE is the early notification system of the IAEA (EMERCON/ENATOM).• Intense collaborations have resulted in the definition of a common data-format (International Radiological Information eXchange : IRIX) and an identical set of information to exchange during an event.• The EC has signed the IAEA early notification convention.• WebECURIE and USIE (IAEA) will both be compatible to the IRIX standards.• Being able to use the same data-format for the EC and the IAEA reduces need for duplication, therefore the EU MSs are strongly facilitated in notifying the two organizations during an accident.AIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 5
    • European radiological (status 2008)monitoring networks Ambient dose-rate Air concentration on-line stations: ±4500 on-line stations: 236 off-line stations: 383 AIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 6
    • EURDEP - On-linedata base - WWW♦ Internationally recognized standard format for radiological data;♦ Network (35 European countries with 4500 stations participating);♦ daily and hourly transmissions, mostly γ- dose rates;♦ Raw data available at 3 mirror-sites (Ispra, Italy – Freiburg, Germany – Luxembourg)♦ Web-site to view and download data.http://eurdep.jrc.ec.europa.eu AIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 7
    • Data availability • To all data-providers • National and international governmental Organizations related to emergency response • Some exceptions for research – Authorization by EC and/or IAEA – Authorization by national Contact Point – Reference to data-providers • Public web-site – Country imposed delay – No download of data – No meteo-dataAIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 8
    • IRMIS / EURDEP relation • EURDEP technology available to IAEA – Web-site with configuration file to run as EURDEP private, EURDEP public, IRMIS private, IRMIS public – Further development by EC / JRC – IAEA is part of decision making structure to define future requirements – All data collected under EURDEP is available at IRMIS, all data collected under IRMIS is available at EURDEPAIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 9
    • Part II: Observations in Europe after the accident in Fukushima Daiichi NPPAIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 10
    • 11
    • Arrival of contaminatedair in Europe• Earthquake: 11 Mar 2011, 14:46; Approximate passage date Tsunami ca. 15:27 of the• Explosions, venting maximum concentration 2500000• First notice in Europe: of 131I (part.). Scale: days CTBTO Reykjavik after 20 March 2000000 (Iceland), 20/21 Mar 11 2011. Axis 18 units: m.• Maxima in Europe: 1500000 17 6 Apr 11 16 27 Mar – 6 April 11 15 14 1000000 13 12 1 Apr 11 11 500000 10 9 8 source: IRSN 0 7 27 Mar 11 6 -500000 -1000000 -1500000 -1000000 -500000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 12
    • Time series 10000 Österös NO Schauinsland DE • Data from 227 max. ca. 6 mBq/m³ Stockholm SE stations available; Lodz PL Vienna AT • Different quality; Praha CZ • 150 could be usedI-131 (part.), µBq/m³ 1000 Skopje MK Athens GR for spatial Genova IT evaluations; • Stat.-based adaptation and 100 harmonization necessary in many cases 10 21.3.11 0:00 23.3.11 0:00 25.3.11 0:00 27.3.11 0:00 29.3.11 0:00 31.3.11 0:00 2.4.11 0:00 4.4.11 0:00 6.4.11 0:00 8.4.11 0:00 10.4.11 0:00 12.4.11 0:00 14.4.11 0:00 16.4.11 0:00 18.4.11 0:00 20.4.11 0:00 22.4.11 0:00 24.4.11 0:00 26.4.11 0:00 28.4.11 0:00 25 20 3 131 I (aerosol) activity conc., Bq/m sampling mid time 15 10 Fukushima, Central Europe: 5 137 Cs (aerosol) >3 orders of 0 131Iand 137Cs concentrations in air over magnitude lower 30 30 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 4/ 4/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 Ispra (Italy) after the Chernobyl accident. 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 than Chernobyl! :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Source: REM database. AIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 13
    • Problems of data harmonization 4000 "true" series 3500 1 d sampling, offset 1 1 d sampling, offset 2 Establish a consistent input data set. 3000 1 d sampling, offset 3 1 d sampling, offset 4 Among problems: • Stations have different offsets ofconcentration 2500 2000 sampling period; 1500 • Stations have different durations of 1000 sampling periods. 500 4000 4000 0 3500 1 day 3500 5 10 15 20 2 days 3000 3000 days grey: simulated “true” series 2500 2500 (principle: 2000 2000 multiplicative cascade) 1500 1500 1000 1000 scaling of maximum with size of 500 500 0 0 observation window 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 4000 4000 Braunschw eig 1 Potsdam Offenbach 3500 3500 0.9 Schauinsland 3 days 5 days Skopje 3000 3000 0.8 MEDIAN 2500 2500 relative maximum Reykjavik 0.7 Stockholm Umea 2000 2000 Beograd 0.6 Linz 1500 1500 Hradec Kralove 0.5 Ostrava 1000 1000 Sevilla 0.4 Sacavém 500 500 Cáceres 0.3 Österös 0 0 Kiruna 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 0.2 Firenze 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 window size (d) AIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 14
    • 131Iconcentrations in aerosols2500000 observed maximum within domain2000000 (corrected for sampling offset and duration): 61500000 5 6.4 mBq/m³ (±11%), Łodz, PL, 29.3.111000000 4 3 500000 2 source of most maps and graphs: - P. Bossew, G. Kirchner, M. De Cort, G. de Vries, A. 1 Nishev, Luca de Felice: Radioactivity from Fukushima- 0 Dai-ichi in air over Europe, part 1: Spatio-temporal analysis. publ. on-line, JER 0 - G. Kirchner, P. Bossew, M. De Cort: Radioactivity from Fukushima Dai-ichi in air over Europe, part 2: -500000 What can it tell us about the accident? publ. on-line, JER. Estimated distribution of maximum 131I-1000000 (particulate) concentration over Europe. Scale unit: mBq/m³. Axis units: m. -1500000 -1000000 -500000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 AIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 15
    • 131Iconcentrations in aerosols plot: E[Z(U(x))|{zi}]2500000 spatial mean in domain: 9.1 mBq*d/m³ observed max. (corr. for cut-off) 23.3 mBq*d/m³ (±4%), Utena, LT2000000 mBq*d/m³ 181500000 16 141000000 12 10 500000 8 6 0 4 -500000-1000000 -1500000 -1000000 -500000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 Estimated distribution of time-cumulated 131I (particulate) concentration over Europe. Scale Chernobyl (1986); mean (Austria): 30 Bq*d/m³ unit: mBq*d/m³. Axis units: m. AIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 16
    • radionuclide ratios 1 derived from observations over Europe 131I, gaseous : particulate 131I : 137Cs 400 20 18 126 AT 100 16 ES FR I, gaseous : particulate IT Cs 14 other 28.6 137 Median(2 days) 12 Median(25 values) I: Med(25 val, except FR+ES) 131 10 Med(25 val, FR+ES) 10 ratio 8 med2(part.) particulate131 6 med2(total) 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 21 201 26 201 31 201 05 201 10 201 15 201 20 201 25 201 30 201 05 201 10 201 15 201 0 20 23.03.11 28.03.11 02.04.11 07.04.11 12.04.11 17.04.11 22.04.11 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 16 • ratio regionally and temporally variable (meteo influence?) ratio over Europe ± temporally • Median over Europe ± constant constant AIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 17
    • radionuclideratios 2 1000 100ref: 20.3.2011 # samples median 5% 95% p level Cs, µBq/m³131I (gas): 131I 136 3.71 3.19 4.36 <0.001* 10(part.) 134131I (part): 137Cs 862 28.6 27.3 29.8 <0.001* 1134Cs : 137Cs 393 0.874 0.840 0.907 <0.001* 1 10 100 1000 137 Cs, µBq/m³136Cs : 137Cs 38 0.132 0.099 0.164 <0.001* 100132Te : 137Cs 121 2.45 2.21 2.75 <0.001* 136Cs : 137Cs129mTe : 132Te 14 0.46 0.30 0.73 0.002* Cs, µBq/m³95Nb 10 : 137Cs 10 0.9 0.5 2.3 0.37 136140La : 137Cs 8 0.2 0.04 0.4 0.91 1Sr, Pu: not observed in European air filters, to our knowledge; 10 100except one Pu result reported from Lithuania (Lujaniene et al., JER 2012): 137 Cs, µBq/m³239+240Pu ≈ 26 nBq/m³, 239+240Pu/137Cs ≈ 2*10-4. 10000 140La : 137Cs I(part.), µBq/m³ 1000 1000 129mTe : 132Te La, µBq/m³ 100 ? Te, µBq/m³ 10 131 131I(part) : 137Cs 140 10 100 129m 1 10 100 1000 10 100 137 137 Cs, µBq/m³ Cs, µBq/m³ 100 1000 AIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 132 Te, µBq/m³ 18
    • Environment: rain, fallout, …… 1000 131 I rainwater Sarasdorf AT, 1 Apr 2011 7 Be 131 I: 1.7 Bq/L deposition, Austria: 100counts 137Cs, kBq/m² 10 global up to 10 rain water: Austrian Inst. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Applied Ecology E (keV) Chernobyl up to 200 Fukushima up to 0.001 compilation of European data 16 (AT, BG, ES, FR, GR, IE, IT, SK) 14 12 131I, rain water, Bq/L source: IRSN, Bull. 15, 10 June 2011 10 131I, grass, vegetables, Bq/kg 131I, cow milk, Bq/L 8 6 France 4 2 0 21.03.11 31.03.11 10.04.11 20.04.11 30.04.11 10.05.11 AIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 19
    • ….grass, milk, veggies 131I, Sheep milk, Macedonia data: Zdenka Stojanowska, Skopje Bull. 15, 10 June 2011 France source: IRSN, 131I, cow milk, Bq/L; Italy, Ireland 1.6 0.8 Vegetali / foraggio, Piacenza IT, Reggio Calabria 1.4 131I, Bq/kg 0.7 Trivigno Udinese 1.2 0.6 Vernasca Emilia R. 0.5 Ireland 1 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.2 Vegetable, grass, Italy 0 0 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 .20 .20 .20 .20 .20 .20 .20 .20 .20 .20 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 .03 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .04 .05 .05 .05 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 28 02 07 12 17 22 27 02 07 12 .0 3.2 .0 3.2 .0 4.2 .0 4.2 .0 4.2 .0 4.2 .0 4.2 .0 4.226 31 05 10 15 20 25 30 data: ISPRA / ARPA, RPII AIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 20
    • Environmental media:summary Japan except Fukushima Europe Fukushima pref. prefecture fallout 137Cs, Bq/m² -10² kBq/m² up to >10 ~ 1 Bq/m² MBq/m² rainwater 131I, Bq/L -7 134Cs, Bq/L - 0.8 tap water 131I, Bq/L - 400 - 1000 0 cow milk 131I, Bq/L - 1700 - 5300 -6 most < 1 sheep milk 131I, Bq/L - 10 most < 3 grass, 131I, Bq/kg (fresh -54000! (Ibaraki) - 22000 - 15 veggies m.) - 5000 most < 3 seafood 131I, Bq/kg - 4000 - 12000 0 134Cs, Bq/kg - 220 - 15000 from Hamada & Ogino, JER 2012AIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 21
    • doses 1: inhalation2500000 Assumptions for spatio- temporal dynamic of 131I(part:gas) ratio;2000000 0.8 Committed 131I thyroid dose probably1500000 0.7 below 1 Sv; mean ≈ 0.4 (10 y child) 0.61000000 0.5 Comm. eff. dose, 131I: 24 nSv (child), 0.4 11 nSv (adult) 500000 134+7Cs: < 1nSv 0.3 0.2 0 (Chernobyl: mean over 0.1 Austria, thyroid: ca. 900 -500000 Sv) doses of 10 y children due to-1000000 inhalation of 131I. Scale unit: µSv. Axis units: m. Spatial variability of estimated committed thyroid -1500000 -1000000 -500000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 AIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 22
    • dose 2: externalgamma:immersion: ground radiation:External dose rate monitoring systems Deposition, 137Cs: 1 Bq/m²; max= 2 ?• LLD typically ~ 10 nSv/h 50 y dose, incl. inhal. due to resuspension, no• immersion by Fukushima cloud, shielding, 100% outdoor; factors: IAEA Tecdoc 1162 Europe: ~ pSv/h; 10 days ⇒ ~1.5 nSv nuclide Bq/m2 nSv/(Bq/m²) nSv % 134Cs 0.9 5.1 4.6 3.0 136Cs 0.13 2.3 0.30 0.2 137Cs 1 130 130 84.7 131I 30 0.27 8.1 5.3 132Te 2.5 0.69 1.7 1.1 129mTe 1.2 0.22 0.26 0.2 140Ba 0.2 2.5 0.5 0.3 140La 0.2 0.32 0.064 0.0 95Nb 0.9 2.1 1.9 1.2 95Zr 0.9 6.8 6.1 4.0 total 154 100External dose rate, daily means over all European probably very conservative!stations (ca. 4000) and weekly running average….no detectable effect! Chernobyl, Central Europe: 137Cs up to ~200 kBq/m² Chernobyl, Central Europe: up to ~ 3 µSv/h 23 AIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese
    • Doses 3: ingestion 10 y child assumed days consumption activity dose conversion comm. eff. contamination (2) (rough) (Bq) factor (3) dose, Sv high / max cow milk 131I: 2 / 6 Bq/L 30 0.3 L/d 18 / 54 52 nSv/Bq 0.94 / 2.8 134+7Cs: 0.05 / 0.2 0.57 / 1.8 12 nSv/Bq (1) 0.007 / 0.02 veggies 131I: 3 / 15 Bq/kg 30 0.1 kg/d 9 / 45 52 nSv/Bq 0.47 / 2.3 134+7Cs: 0.4 / 3 1.2 / 9 12 nSv/Bq (1) 0.014 / 0.11 total 1.4 / 5.2 adult assumed days consumption activity dose conversion comm. eff. contamination factor dose, Sv cow milk 131I: 2 / 6 Bq/L 30 0.4 L/d 24 / 72 22 nSv/Bq 0.53 / 1.6 134+7Cs: 0.05 / 0.2 0.72 / 2.4 16 nSv/Bq (1) .012 /.038 veggies 131I: 3 / 15 Bq/kg 30 0.2 kg/d 18 / 90 22 nSv/Bq 0.40 / 2.0 134+7Cs: 0.4 / 3 2.4 / 18 16 nSv/Bq (1) .038 / 0.30 total 1.0 / 3.9 (1) 134Cs:137Cs = 1:1 conservative! In parts of Europe still winter (2) duration, assumed (3) from EU-Basic Safety Standards ⇒ no cows outside, no fresh vegetables!AIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 24
    • Doses 4, sum orders of doses: comm. eff., µSv; mean, high / max magnitude only! adult 10 y child inhalation 0.011 / 0.022 0.024 / 0.048 γ immersion 0.002 0.002 ground 0.15 / 0.3 0.15 / 0.3 gamma ingestion 1.0 / 3.9 1.4 / 5.2 total mean, high < 1.3 mean, high < 1.7 max < 4.3 max < 5.6 - in Europe trivial doses! …. very different from Japan! - probably conservative!; ‘max’ most probably exaggerated! - ground gamma: mainly from 137Cs, others mainly from 131I. - only 131I and 134+7Cs considered; other radionuclides: minor contributionAIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 25
    • Grazie per l’attenzione! http://itu.jrc.ec.europa.eumarc.de-cort@jrc.ec.europa.eu http://rem.jrc.ec.europa.eu 26