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ProbMTisabadidea,asisviolatingthePrinciple of Total Evidence.
• TheLawofLikelihoodisbetter,butitissubjectto a problem – how can one identify what is wrong with absurd conspiracy theories?
• Bayesianismcansolvethisproblemwhenprior probabilities are objective.
• Whenpriorsarenotobjective,AICcansometimes help determine when coinciding observations should be dismissed as a “mere coincidence.”