[…] the mere number of tweetsmentioning a political party can beconsidered a plausible reflection of thevote share and its predictive power evencomes close to traditional election polls.
The job approval poll is the most straightforward [...]The sentiment ratio also generally declines during thisperiod, with r = 72.5% for k = 15.[...] in 2008 the sentiment ratio does not substantiallycorrelate to the election polls (r = -8%) [...] We mightexpect the sentiment for mccain to be vary inverselywith obama, but they in fact slightly correlate.
[...] the performance of their (Tumasjan et al.)indicator varies over time as well as it criticallyhinges upon which subset of the German partysystem is covered. The number of partymentions in the Twittersphere is thus not a validindicator of offline political sentiment or even offuture election outcomes.
Winner predicted in only half of the races.Sentiment analysis slightly better thanrandom classifier (36.9%).Sentiment analysis weakly correlates withusers’ political preference.
“Aquellos que norecuerdan el pasado están condenados a repetirlo” George Santayana
¿Qué problemas plantea Twitter? Foto por J e n s (away)
usuarios/votantes urbanos & rurales votan y usan Twitter de forma diferenteFotos por Vegagevle y Solveig782
Si fuésemos capaces de predecirelecciones con Twitter de forma precisa habría interes en manipular los resultados haciendo entonces imposible la predicción.
medios sociales dan pistas sobre resultados electoralesmejores métodos = mejores pistasmétodos actuales no predicenresultados de manera consistente Twitter no va a reemplazar encuestas a corto plazo