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- 1. Project Complexity<br />One year later<br />David A. Maynard<br />MBA, PMP<br />January, 2010<br />
- 2. Ice Storm – Winter of 2008 – My Front Yard<br />(Lilly Pods )<br />Complexity occurs all around us<br />2<br />
- 3. Why do you keep harping about project complexity?<br />3<br />You’re starting to scare us<br />
- 4. Choose the most correct answer<br />Kathi made me do it<br />You have a mild case of OCD<br />You need the PDUs<br />The question “What processes or tools should I use for this project?” comes up all the time<br />4<br />
- 5. Lets review some answers to the question<br />5<br />
- 6. This question comes up in EVERY Project Management class<br />Connelly Library – Moore College of Art and Design<br />6<br />
- 7. Some possible answers<br />All of the PMBOK guide<br />The parts of the guide I Iike the best<br />Priorities change every day, we don’t have time for this<br />Whatever Prince2 template software says<br />What my boss tells me<br />We use all the templates in ‘Method 123’ software<br />Whatever Lynn says<br />What I used the last time<br />7<br />Only Microsoft Project<br />We don’t use processes in our company<br />My bosses don’t know anything about managing projects, so I can get away with anything<br />We use all the templates in MPMM software<br />What I’ve read about on Gantthead.com<br />The least amount possible<br />
- 8. Is there an better answer?<br />8<br />
- 9. The time has arrived for a new approach<br />9<br />
- 10. The best answer<br />It all depends upon the relative complexity of the project<br />10<br />
- 11. The search for complexity information led to several documents…<br />11<br />
- 12. And, there are new texts on the topic since last year…<br />12<br />
- 13. The state of project management<br />We should have better guidance about what processes & tools to apply to a particular project<br />13<br />
- 14. My Goal From Last Year<br />“Build a model and let it learn from us”<br />14<br />
- 15. The Proposed Model Development<br />15<br />Changed<br />
- 16. The Model<br />16<br />
- 17. Some people doubt this could work<br />17<br />
- 18. Consider psychological inventories<br />Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MTBI)<br />Questionnaire designed to measure psychological preferences in how people perceive the world and make decisions<br />DiSC<br />Four quadrant behavioral model based to examine the behavior of individuals in their environment <br />Dominance, Influence, Steadiness, Conscientiousness<br />18<br />
- 19. 19<br />Are those tests perfect?<br />Are they often-times close?<br />Are they useful?<br />
- 20. Enough!What about the online model?<br />20<br />
- 21. I’ve got it working<br />21<br />Just what do you think you're doing, Dave? <br />
- 22. What / where?<br />It’s written in Perl / CGI with MySQL and is running on a bit of my personal web space.<br />But, it’s not ready for prime-time yet. <br />22<br />
- 23. Perl?<br />Developed by Larry Wall, a linguist working as a systems administrator for NASA, in 1987<br />Perl is nicknamed "the Swiss Army chainsaw of programming languages" due to its flexibility and adaptability.<br />Extract of the Complexity Model<br />23<br />
- 24. Implementation<br />The user sees a series of HTML forms<br />It appears just like a survey that we’ve all done many, many times. <br />Best browser support<br />Most familiar interface<br />Little confusion<br />Rather boring <br />I’m looking for a way to make it more interesting<br />24<br />
- 25. Graphics<br />I think a dashboard would be nice <br />From my 38 year old Porsche<br />(I’m the first owner!)<br />25<br />
- 26. The inputs to the model<br />8 dimensions of project complexity were determined by “sitting and thinking” plus reading the reference texts<br />One of the new books agrees with me!<br />There are many factors which affect the dimensions<br />Not all factors apply to all projects<br />The factors may all have different weights<br />26<br />
- 27. Dimensions and Factors<br />27<br />
- 28. Dimensions of complexity<br />28<br />
- 29. Factors<br />We discussed the factors for each dimension last year<br />No changes were made<br />THEORY: As long as the most significant factors are included, the software should be able to produce a reasonable result<br />I want to add a way so that users can add factors as they see fit<br />29<br />
- 30. Weighting<br />Each dimension has a dedicated HTML form <br />Each dimension can be weighted via an input to the form<br />Each factor can be weighted individually<br />30<br />
- 31. Asymptote <br />31<br />The intermediate answer is ‘normalized’ and established from 0 to 100<br />Score<br />High Complexity<br />Low Complexity<br />
- 32. I’m starting to not like that methodThere’s a better way!<br />32<br />Statistics<br />
- 33. 33<br />There are three kinds of lies: <br />lies, <br />damned lies<br />and statistics.<br />-- Mark Twain<br />
- 34. New Way: Regression analysis<br />A techniques for modeling and analyzing several variables<br />The focus is on the relationship between a dependent variable and independent variables<br />I hope to use a regression method in which the predictor variables are measured with error<br />All of this goes into the database<br />34<br />
- 35. I hit a snag in one area<br />Procurement<br />You can have complex project, but no procurement <br />You can have a simple project, with lots of procurement<br />And! The project Manager may not be involved in procurement anyway<br />The procurement tools & templates are not directly related to project complexity<br />35<br />
- 36. For instance<br />A complexity score of 75 doesn’t mean you need to use a detailed procurement plan – if you’re doing only software development<br />But it might! If you needed to buy servers, workstations… whatever. <br />36<br />
- 37. Walk-Through<br />37<br />
- 38. Green Kryptonite<br />38<br />The complexity model<br />
- 39. Non-secure entry<br />39<br />The help text may need improvement<br />
- 40. Entry Page Thoughts<br />Should add user account mechanism<br />Would be nice to have a summary page of previous uses available<br />40<br />Hacker paradise<br />
- 41. Security (not)<br />No user login<br />No IP recording<br />Not Russian teenage hacker proof<br />Doesn't implement my “hacker score” code<br />41<br />Real Russian Hacker<br />
- 42. Business Area?<br />Right now the business area input is equally weighted for all results<br />It’s clear that different business areas will have different complexity multipliers<br />Healthcare<br />Automotive<br />Banking..<br />This will become a factor as the model ‘learns’<br />42<br />
- 43. D1: Corporate Environment<br />43<br />
- 44. Everything defaults to “medium”<br />44<br />
- 45. 45<br />Adjust the dimension’s weight<br />
- 46. 46<br />Select each factor’s weight<br />
- 47. MySQL debugging lines<br />The green text (green = good) on the top of each page is the SQL statements. <br />If they turn red, the database didn’t update<br />47<br />
- 48. D2: Project Problem & Solution<br />Each mind map area was converted to an HTML form<br />48<br />
- 49. (some factor selections made)<br />49<br />Dimension 2 of 8<br />
- 50. 50<br />Dimension 3 of 8<br />
- 51. (Some selections Made)<br />51<br />Dimension 4 of 8<br />
- 52. (Some selections Made)<br />Dimension 5 of 8<br />52<br />
- 53. (Some selections Made)<br />Dimension 6 of 8<br />53<br />
- 54. (Some selections Made)<br />Dimension 7 of 8<br />54<br />
- 55. (Some selections Made)<br />Dimension 8 of 8<br />55<br />
- 56. Risks and Opportunities<br />56<br />
- 57. And the answer is…<br />57<br />
- 58. Answer number 1: LOW<br />58<br />
- 59. Answer number 2:What templates / processes are recommended(Greyed out are not recommended)<br />59<br />More<br />
- 60. But wait! There’s more!<br />This is the page that will allow the model to “learn”<br />Users can click on and off templates for their environment<br />The system will remember those choices and adjust the weighting<br />This portion of the code is not complete <br />60<br />
- 61. There are a few bugs to fix<br />61<br />
- 62. Future Work<br />Improve security & user interface<br />Install templates for download<br />Finish the “learning” capability<br />Email results (with links) to the user<br />Create a better graphic of the complexity<br />62<br />
- 63. 63<br />‘RADAR’ plots are commonly used for complexity<br />I have some issues with this type of chart<br />What do the areas between the axes mean?<br />For instance, the ‘dot’ implies a combination of Risks / Opportunities and corporate environment<br />
- 64. Soliciting Input<br />Do I need to make it interesting to use?<br />What about “adaptive” forms?<br />Specialized processes or templates?<br />64<br />
- 65. Ice Storm, 2008 – My front yard<br />(Birch Tree)<br />65<br />

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