Energy-water nexus and sustainability

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Dr. Rajan Gupta of the Los Alamos National Laboratory discusses the energy-water nexus and its impact on sustainability. (Aug 29, 2012)

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Energy-water nexus and sustainability

  1. 1. Growing Energy-Water Demand: Implications for sustainable development Rajan Gupta Laboratory Fellow Theoretical Division Los Alamos National Laboratory, USALA-UR 12-21494
  2. 2. Highlights•  Ignore energy security and climate security at global peril•  You cannot wish away fossil fuels – create alternatives ! R&D•  Evolution of coal-fired power – self limiting in most countries•  Emergence of natural gas – more than a bridge fuel Hydro &•  Growth of solar & wind requires storage & smart grid gas turbines as backup•  Water security and hydropower•  Is China too big to be allowed to fail?•  Population stabilization•  Policy will be made with uncertain, incomplete information. Collateral repercussions will increase in a complex interconnected world•  Ever growing need for Enlightened Leadership
  3. 3. Sustainable Development:The development-energy-environment-climate challenge •  Development: moral imperative, creates resilient societies, facilitates transformations, drives politics •  Energy: basis of modern technological societies •  Water: basis of life •  Environment: health and sustainability •  Climate: the driver of the need to transform to carbon-neutral energy and transportation systems Climate Change: Impacts are global, long-term and likely catastrophic
  4. 4. !"#$%&&(")&*+,"-.$//0&(01"2-*&*34-"5060/*730&89""2&0:(,9";/43$80<"=*"0$>,?4#0$/">*/%*&@"A.$8">.*%/#?B4//"B0"#*C" !60:$(0"80370:$8%:0"D#0("EF"
  5. 5. The mean temperature is rising Mean temperature rise since 1900 ~ 0.74oC
  6. 6. Land Temperature is rising faster We do not know the full consequences of current 395 ppm of CO2!!! A change in Tav (land) from 20 year patterns between 1800-1960 to a uniform growth after 1970. Rise in mean temperature since 1970 ~ 0.9oC Source: http://berkeleyearth.org/analysis/
  7. 7. The timeliness and strength of our actions will decide ONE number that nature cares about: CO2 concentration in the atmosphere Billions of Tons BAU (easier) CO2 target 16 Carbon Emitted ~850 ppm per Year Stabilization Interim Goal ~500 ppm only Triangle 395 if emissions stabilize TODAY 8 Historical emissions Flat path1.6 Source: CMI Princeton 0 1950 2000 2050 2100 Full warming due to 395 ppm CO2 are not known
  8. 8. QUESTIONS:When and at what level will GHG emissions peak? Billions of Tons 16 Carbon Emitted per Year Stabilization Triangle 395 8 Historical emissions1.6 0 1950 2000 2050 2100 Nature will enforce consequences
  9. 9. The world will not stop using fossil fuels in the 21st century because there is not enough, butbecause there are cleaner cost-effective alternatives•  High Energy density: energy per kilogram•  High Power density: Power per unit volume Fossil Fuels are•  Safe: Do not self combust and are easy to use amazing sources•  Transport: Easy to transport around the world of energy•  Easy and cheap to extract from the ground: Challenges: Environment, Climate Change
  10. 10. The energy goal is clearNeed cheap clean carbon-neutral (C3) energyfor electric power and transportation needs. The challenge ismeeting these needs without using fossil fuels(and without nuclear power in some countries)
  11. 11. Coal and Gas for power generation •  ~25 countries dominate coal use –  Future big players: China, India, USA •  Natural gas is/will be the dominant fuel in many regions of the world •  Urbanization is proceeding at a very rapid rate –  Numbers of Mega-cities and large cities are growing and will remain centers of economic activity. –  Large centralized power plants near cities will continue to have the benefit of economy of scale.2020-2050: Coal and gas will retain >4TW capacity
  12. 12. Total Installed Capacity: China, India, USA China India United States 1,200.000 Gas 1,000.000 Electric Power Generation:GigaWatts 800.000 600.000 USA: 50% Coal Coal China: 80% Coal 400.000 India: 70% Coal 200.000 0.000 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 1987 1997 2007 Coal capacity will saturate in China & India ! each country plans 500+ GW of nuclear capacity in addition to coal and gas to meet their power needs Source: EIA, http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf63.html
  13. 13. Cheap gas in the U.S. is replacing coal China India United States 35% 1,200.000 Gas 1,000.000 Electric Power Generation:GigaWatts 800.000 600.000 USA: 50% Coal Coal China: 80% Coal 400.000 India: 70% Coal 200.000 0.000 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 1987 1997 2007 Coal capacity will saturate in China & India ! each country plans 500+ GW of nuclear capacity in addition to coal and gas to meet their power needs Source: EIA, http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf63.html
  14. 14. Coal-fired power in 21 Countries •  USA (1000/230000) •  China (3500/114000) •  UK (18/228) •  Japan, Korea, Taiwan (35%) •  Germany (183/41000) •  Vietnam (45/150) •  Poland (135/5700) •  Australia (424/76000) •  Czech, Ukraine, •  Indonesia (306/5500) Bulgaria, Romania, •  India (570/60000) Greece, Turkey (350/42000) •  Russia (325/157000) •  South Africa (255/30000) •  Kazakhstan (110/33000)(#/#) =(Annual produced/Reserves) MT (%) % power generated by coal: (BP2011)
  15. 15. China burns ~50% of world coal •  USA (1000/230000) •  China (3500/114000) •  UK (18/228) •  Japan, Korea, Taiwan (35%) •  Germany (183/41000) •  Vietnam (45/150) •  Poland (135/5700) •  Australia (424/76000) •  Czech, Ukraine, •  Indonesia (306/5500) Bulgaria, Romania, •  India (570/60000) Greece, Turkey (350/42000) •  Russia (325/157000) •  South Africa (255/30000) •  Kazakhstan (110/33000)(#/#) =(Annual produced/Reserves) MT (%) % power generated by coal: (BP2011)
  16. 16. By 2050 only 7/21 will remain coal rich countries •  USA (1000/230000) •  China (3250/114000) •  UK (18/228) •  Japan, Korea, Taiwan (35%) •  Germany (183/41000) •  Vietnam (45/150) •  Poland (135/5700) •  Australia (424/76000) •  Czech, Ukraine, •  Indonesia (306/5500) Bulgaria, Romania, •  India (570/60000) Greece, Turkey (350/42000) •  Russia (325/157000) •  South Africa (255/30000) •  Kazakhstan (110/33000)(#/#) =(Annual produced/Reserves) million tons (%) power generated by coal: (BP2011)
  17. 17. De-carbonizing: Technology•  Fuel Substitution Gas Hydro Coal Wind Nuclear Solar Charging•  Higher fuel efficiency cars ! electric vehicles
  18. 18. Natural Gas: the multi-purpose fuelDominant in Major fuel in•  South America (after Hydro) •  North America•  North Africa •  Europe•  Middle East •  South-east Asia•  Central Asia, Iran •  Australia•  Russia •  China (Shale Gas) Shale Gas: USGS
  19. 19. Countries that can switch to gas relatively easily Growth using shale gas •  USA? •  China •  UK •  Japan, Korea, Taiwan •  Germany •  Vietnam •  Poland •  Australia •  Czech, Ukraine, •  Indonesia Bulgaria, Romania, •  India Greece, Turkey •  Russia •  South Africa •  Kazakhstan Growth using shale gasAlmost all of these countries will have nuclear power plants. ??GW??
  20. 20. Solar and Wind•  On a purely kWh cost basis (2012) –  Wind @ $1/Wattp is competitive •  $0.10/kW-hour –  Solar is 2-3X more expensive: For sustainability: utility scale capital costs = $2/Wattp installed •  $0.20/kWh•  Intermittency & daily/seasonal variations are key challenges solar
  21. 21. A stable grid must dynamically take care of variability in demand & generation•  Day, week and seasonal variations in demand and generation•  Need to plan for highest peak load if brownouts unacceptable Source: Paul Denholm, NREL
  22. 22. Storage is the 1st key•  There are only two large-scale storage systems that provide backup to solar and wind:•  Hydro: (reservoir based) –  seasonal regulation ! only about 40% of rated capacity Hydro•  Hydro: (pumped storage) + Gas turbines –  daily regulation: only 40% of day in generation mode + Wind•  Gas Turbines (intermediate step to reduce CO2 ) + Solar –  GT are oil or gas based with natural gas being more efficient –  Unlimited potential but give rise to large GHG emissions if required to cover 50-70% of the load on a typical day
  23. 23. Smart Grid is the 2nd key•  Integrating power generation, transmission, distribution, load with information systems and real-time monitors•  Management of generation to minimize fossil-fuel use –  integrating the full potential of solar and wind•  Demand management to –  compensate for fluctuations in wind and solar generation by controlling load –  Reduce/balance peak loads
  24. 24. Water has no substitute •  Essential for life and agriculture •  Industrial processes •  Thermal Power generationOver 2 billionpeople live inwater stressedareas. Severityand numbersare growing. IPCC 2007
  25. 25. Climate change could disrupt India’s Monsoon.Essential for Rain and Himalayan Snow cover
  26. 26. Hydropower & Irrigation•  The potential of most rivers has already been exploited•  Contention for water amongst riparian states will increase. Scarcity will increase the probability of wars over water.•  Major development planned by China and India•  A large fraction of Chinese development is planned in high Himalayas (Tibet) in the Tsangpo-Bhramaputra basin –  Steep hillsides with narrow valleys –  Prone to large landslides –  Active earthquake zone with major faults•  Growing Soil Salinity
  27. 27. Possible-Existing Projects
  28. 28. This is an Active Seismic Zone Map Source: Terry Wallace
  29. 29. Impacts of these dams downstream?
  30. 30. Mekong River Basin: A lifeline for•  China•  Burma-China•  Burma-Laos•  Laos-Thailand•  Laos-Cambodia•  Cambodia•  Vietnam
  31. 31. Water Wars•  When river basins span international borders ! Which riparian state can build water management systems? !  Dams !  Canals !  Hydroelectric Power Plants ! How much water can a country withdraw for its “needs”? ! Reservoirs ! Increased evaporation losses•  Water rights reflect history not equity –  Militarily strongest nations have dictated rights and these “historic” rights are hard to change•  Water wars at the individual farmer level
  32. 32. The Nile•  Egypt has dominated rights•  Ethiopia and Uganda are hydropower dependent•  Ethiopia and Sudan’s growing populations need water•  ~30% of water evaporates at Lake Nasser (Aswan dam)
  33. 33. What can nature sustain? OECD, China, India, … orOECD + (China or India or …) or only OECDAnd at what level of resource use?
  34. 34. What can nature sustain? OECD, China, India, … 9 Billion orOECD + (China or India or …) 3 Billion or only OECD 1.5 billion At U.S. or EU or Brazil’s level?
  35. 35. What can nature sustain? OECD, China, India, … 9 Billion (Brazil) orOECD + (China or India or …) 3 Billion (EU) or only OECD 1.5 billion (USA) Mesa Verde: now a tourist attraction
  36. 36. Options:High efficiency use of energy: Broad based R&D in energy-climate science and technology:
  37. 37. Innovation Fund: If I was allowed to pick only 5 Priorities•  Storage: 3X Battery for cars (Higher power and energy density and longer life). Fuel cells? Grid scale storage?•  Solar PV at $1-2/Wattp installed & 200 GW/yr manufacturing capacity (16 x 2012). Address the issue of rare Energy Critical Elements•  Forecasting and control systems –  Smart Grid to integrate solar and wind & manage load:•  Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)•  Nuclear Fuel Cycle: reprocessing & waste management
  38. 38. 4 Infrastructure (Efficiency) Priorities•  Cities and communities planned around energy efficiency•  Public transport & electric long-haul railway•  Energy efficient buildings•  Solar/geothermal hot water and heat-ventilation-AC (HVAC) systems
  39. 39. What lies ahead •  Environmental degradation & loss of ecosystems/species •  Water shortages in large parts of China and India •  Accumulating evidence of Climate Change –  Impacts of intense heat & storms on infrastructure & agriculture •  Uncertainty in timeline and scale of solar and wind –  Uncertainty in date & height of peak in GHG emissions •  Volatility in price of fossil fuels for many countries –  Many countries will continue to not be able to afford clean (or even fossil) energy systems and lack Energy SecurityPolicy will have to be made under uncertainty & stress
  40. 40. Oil, Coal, Gas Prices: Expect Volatility NW Europe USA (Appalachian) Japan Coking Japan Steam US$/Tonne 300.00 200.00 Coal 100.00 0.00 1989 1991 1993 1995 1999 2001 2003 2005 2009 2011 1987 1997 2007 Gas: US$/MbtuNatural Gas Source: BP Statistical Review 2012
  41. 41. Is China too big to be allowed to fail?•  Chinese leaders must deliver prosperity to maintain political control by the communist party•  China wants to be & is the manufacturing center of the world. It already has a large trade surplus with most countries.•  China needs to dominate resources and markets to succeed•  China’s rise has been unprecedented in scope & speed•  China is central to discussions/policy on geo-politics (Syria, Iran, Pakistan, North-Korea, …), economy, sustainable development, climate change•  Will China emerge as an enlightened world leader or remain self-centered and disdainful of human rights?•  Can the world afford a single dominant manufacturing center?
  42. 42. Land routes & barriers to resources and markets
  43. 43. Change is happening People are becoming more aware and concerned People are asking for action Alternate energy systems are maturingGoal is to accelerate this transformation by movingfrom organic evolution to a planned/equitable one
  44. 44. Population stabilization•  Almost all the population growth is happening in the lowest/poorest 25% (South Asia, Middle East, Africa)•  2050: India !1.75 billion, China !1.44 billion•  Will require enormous resources to integrate these large populations into knowledge societies and prevent systemic generational poverty•  Access to information & travel has raised expectations•  Can these expectations be met sustainably?•  Can technology provide sustainable options?
  45. 45. Sustainable Development?•  The global system is being pushed to [over] the edge of sustainability and natural recovery on all fronts making it vulnerable to catastrophic failures•  Formulating consistent policy over decades in the face of uncertainty & costs requires exceptional leadership•  Enlightened Governance –  Outstanding Leadership –  Trust –  Transparency/No Corruption –  Bi-partisan Politics
  46. 46. Munch’s 3-D view of our collective responsibility towards the globalcommons and human impact on nature My view: playing dice with nature
  47. 47. Extras
  48. 48. De-carbonizing the global economy GDP CO2 EnergyCO2 = Population ! ------------- ! --------- ! -------- Population Energy GDP ~+1% ~+4% ~-0.1% ~-1.5% Population Prosperity: Carbon Energy stabilization: historically it Intensity: Intensity: a political has driven De-carbonize Efficiency hard sell people, policy technology and politicians Reading: “The Science and Politics of Global Climate Change”, Dessler and Parson, Cambridge University Press; “The Climate Fix”, Roger Pielke Jr., Basic Books, 2010

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