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MGT581 Understanding Change

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  • Technology Trigger: A potential technology breakthrough kicks things off. Early proof-of-concept stories and media interest trigger significant publicity. Often no usable products exist and commercial viability is unproven. Peak of Inflated Expectations: Early publicity produces a number of success stories—often accompanied by scores of failures. Some companies take action; many do not. Trough of Disillusionment: Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investments continue only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters. Slope of Enlightenment: More instances of how the technology can benefit the enterprise start to crystallize and become more widely understood. Second- and third-generation products appear from technology providers. More enterprises fund pilots; conservative companies remain cautious. Plateau of Productivity: Mainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. The technology’s broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off.
  • Relation – there are many researches who study the diffusion of innovations in complex networks Information Flow in Social Groups A generalized model of social and biological contagion Modeling diffusion of innovations in a social network The Power of a Good Idea: Quantitative Modeling of the Spread of Ideas from Epidemiological Models Relation – there are many researches who study the diffusion of innovations in complex networks Information Flow in Social Groups A generalized model of social and biological contagion Modeling diffusion of innovations in a social network The Power of a Good Idea: Quantitative Modeling of the Spread of Ideas from Epidemiological Models

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  • 1. David A. JarvisSalve Regina University, MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Understanding Change
  • 2. Understanding Change – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7. 2012 “For time and the world do not stand still. Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or the present are certain to miss the future.” - John F. Kennedy, address in the Assembly Hall at Paulskirche in Frankfurt, June 1963 2
  • 3. Understanding Change – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7. 2012Agenda Sources Change Change Creating of & theories change change foresight 3
  • 4. Understanding Change – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7. 2012What causes change? individuals nature groups of governance people systems economic ideas systems technology 4
  • 5. Understanding Change – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7. 2012There are two major types of change Change that you can’t control 1 (reactive, anticipatory) Change that you can control 2 (creative) 5
  • 6. Understanding Change – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7. 2012 We tend to overestimate change in the short term and underestimate change in the long term 6
  • 7. Understanding Change – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7. 2012 How change happens Continuous Change Discontinuous Change  Gradual improvement over  Sudden change to new long periods levels  Usually preserves the  Usually destroys the framework / context framework / context  Always involves short-term loss  Life expectancy  Multiple types of disruptive technologies (cotton gin,  Darwin’s evolutionary theory steam engine, personal  Many social changes computers, digital media) 7SOURCE: Dr. Peter Bishop, University of Houston
  • 8. Understanding Change – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7. 2012How change happens – the S-curve 3. Maturity 2. Rapid growth 1. Introduction TIME Shows the growth and maturation of technologies, ideas, concepts The change accelerates as a concept propagates through society, groups of individuals, businesses, etc. 8
  • 9. Understanding Change – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7. 2012How change happens – eras Transition Transition Era #3 CAPABILITY Era #2 Era #1 TIME Eras are periods of time marked by particular characteristics; transitions between eras can be difficult and disruptive 9
  • 10. Understanding Change – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7. 2012How change happens – punctuated equilibrium CHANGE Rapid change Stability TIME Long periods of relative stability punctuated by radical transformation 10
  • 11. Understanding Change – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7. 2012 How change happens – hype cycles 2. Peak of inflated expectations VISIBILITY 5. Plateau of productivity 4. Slope of enlightenment 3. Trough of disillusionment 1. Technology trigger TIME 11SOURCE: Gartner
  • 12. EmergenceUnderstanding Change – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7. 2012How change happens - emergence Surprising or unexpected global results that can occur when the parts of any system interact locally via simple rules The whole is greater than the sum of its parts Emergent behavior arises in complex systems; self- organization EXAMPLES • Human consciousness • Traffic patterns • Galaxy formation • Ant colonies, flocking behavior • Urban evolution • Life 12
  • 13. Understanding Change – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7. 2012How change happens – diffusion ofinnovations to the French sociologist Gabriel Tarde who  Traces roots back identified the innovation adoption S-curve  Progressed through the agricultural research of Ryan and Gross in the 1940’s – lead to the notion of adopter categories  Rogers seminal work Diffusion of Innovation (1962) formalized these theories 13
  • 14. Understanding Change – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7. 2012 How change happens - The life-cycle of a technological revolution (Perez) Phase one Phase two Phase three Phase four Degree of technological maturity and Full Last new constellation products and (new industries, industries; earlier technology, ones approaching market saturation systems and maturity and infrastructure) Full expansion market saturation Early new of innovation products and and market industries; potential explosive growth and fast innovations Gestation Paradigm Introduction of successive new Constriction of period configuration products, industries and potential technological systems, plus Big-bang modernization of existing ones Around half a century 14SOURCE: Carlota Perez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital, 2002
  • 15. Understanding Change – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7. 2012 Five successive technological revolutions, 1770-2000 Technological Popular name Core country Big-bang initiating the Year revolution for the period or countries revolution The Industrial Arkwrights’s mill opens in First Revolution Britian Cromford 1771 Britian (spreading Test of the ‘Rocket’ steam The Age of Steam & Second Railways to Continent and engine for the Liverpool- 1829 USA) Manchester railway Age of Steel, Carnegie Bessemer steel plant USA and Third Electricity & Heavy Germany opens in Pittsburgh, 1875 Engineering Pennsylvania USA (with Age of Oil, the Germany), First Model-T comes out of Ford Four Automobile, & Mass spreading to plant in Detroit, Michigan 1908 Production Europe USA (spreading The Intel microprocessor is Age of Information & Fifth Telecommunications to Europe and announced in Santa Clara, 1971 Asia) California 15SOURCE: Carlota Perez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital, 2002
  • 16. Understanding Change – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7. 2012There are four main ways that futurists classify change Quantities or changes that move Trend incrementally in a specific direction over a period of time A repeating pattern or sequence of Cycle events over a set period of time Issues, or new ideas, that are currently Emerging being discussed and those that could Issue become important Expected or unexpected events that Disrupter/ would disrupt, change and potentially end Wildcard a current era16
  • 17. Understanding Change – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7. 2012Trends can help organize our thoughts on thefuture and aid in practical decision making Provide some certainty • Decreasing use of landline Must have a direction phones • Increasing urbanization rates Come from all aspects of • Increased use of “Big Data” and nature and society analytics by corporations • Decreasing energy use per Sometimes trends reverse, household potentially becoming a cycle • Increasing number of “smart” devices (electric/water meters, Most common type of mobile devices, etc.) change in popular literature • Increasing per capita income in (“Top 10 Trends”) India and China 17
  • 18. Understanding Change – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7. 2012Understanding cycles allows us to forecastfuture developments and events Need to develop an understanding of where we currently are with respect to different cycles Need to understand how different cycles interrelate and impact each other There are both short and long-term cycles • Economic cycles (boom and bust) • Weather patterns • Seasons • Elections • Generational cycles • Electricity & utilities use • Technology adoption 18
  • 19. Understanding Change – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7. 2012Emerging issues are the most difficult type ofchange to identify and assess the impact of Could be an emerging technology, innovation, new idea, social development, threat or challenge Hard to detect and determine if it will capture attention Do not confuse for a fad or bandwagon effect ● Algae fuel ● Electric vehicle deployment ● Hacking physical infrastructure ● Gestural interfaces ● Synthetic cells ● Commercial space travel ● Hyperlocal media ● Smart/intelligent cities ● Mobile payment systems Toxicity of nanomaterials ● Socially responsible investing 19
  • 20. Understanding Change – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7. 2012Wildcards are big, important surprises A specific event that has a very low probability of occurrence, but if it does occur has enormous impact Unexpected, but not uncommon Can be positive or negative We tend to focus on catastrophic wildcards • Global epidemic • Unforeseen natural disaster Requires new forms of problem • Cheap, renewable energy solving for an organization • Earth-like planet discovered Demand enormous creativity to • Global financial collapse manage • Large terrorist attack 20
  • 21. Understanding Change – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7. 2012 EXERCISE (Change Classification)21
  • 22. Understanding Change – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7. 2012EXERCISE – Change classification  Divide into teams  Select an industry or a domain for analysis  Identify a trend, cycle, emerging issue and potential wildcard that could impact that industry or domain  Prepare for discussion  TIME: ~30 min. 22
  • 23. Understanding Change – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7. 2012Creating change… We have limited control over the future – we do have control over ourselves and, to a lesser extent, the organizations we are a part of Foresight plays a critical role in leadership, organizational change, change management “If you dont create change, change will create you” 23