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MGT581 The History of the Future

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  • http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/02/pictures/110208-jules-verne-google-doodle-183rd-birthday-anniversary/#/jules-verne-inventions-solar-sail-light-propulsion_32044_600x450.jpg
  • http://paleo-future.blogspot.com/2007/04/what-may-happen-in-next-hundred-years.html http://www.yorktownhistory.org/homepages/1900_predictions.htm
  • http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_48/b3961001.htm http://homepage.mac.com/bobembry/studio/biz/conceptual_resources/authors/peter_drucker/bibliography.html
  • http://myweb.msoe.edu/~westr/Onion.htm
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    • 1. David A. JarvisSalve Regina University, MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 The History of the Future: The Evolution of Foresight
    • 2. The History of the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 “I believe that the time is drawing near when it will be possible to suggest a systematic exploration of the future.” - H.G. Wells, 1902 2
    • 3. The History of the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Utopian works are products of their times, but serveas important future visions for societies Plato – The Republic Sir Thomas More – Utopia (1516) Sir Francis Bacon – New Atlantis (1627) Louis-Sébastien Mercier – LAn 2440, rêve sil en fut jamais (The Year 2440: A Dream If Ever There Was One) (1770) Edward Bellamy – Looking Backward: 2000-1887 (1888) H. G. Wells – A Modern Utopia (1905) 3
    • 4. The History of the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Dystopian literature serves a purpose – to reflect,forewarn, and frighten into action  Aldous Huxley – Brave New World (1932)  George Orwell – Nineteen Eighty Four (1949)  Kurt Vonnegut – Player Piano (1952)  Anthony Burgess – A Clockwork Orange (1962)  P.D. James – The Children of Men (1992) 4
    • 5. The History of the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Six Major Modern Eras of The American Future (Samuel) The Shape of Post WWI; rise and Power of the machine; Things to 1920-39 collapse of Wall Wells quantitative Come Street forecasting techniques Great Day Hope of postwar 1940-45 World War II von Kármán abundance Coming Globalization; The Best is Yet Kahn; Application to public 1946-64 technological Drucker policy to Come progress More disciplined, Social, economic de Jouvenel; Future Shock 1965-79 and political turmoil Bell; Toffler focused approach; limits to growth Tool of consumer Cold War; The Empire capitalism; computer 1980-94 economic Schwartz modeling; scenario Strikes Back expansion planning Rise of the Internet; The Matrix 1995-??? the millennium; Kurzweil - climate crisis 5
    • 6. The History of the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Verne and Wells took different approaches inexploring the future – using both hope and fearJules Verne H.G. Wells1828-1905 1866-1946 His science fiction inspired  Thought that the future could be engineers and scientists to create predicted through science and the future imagination Paris in the 20th Century (1863) –  The Time Machine (1895) skyscrapers, high speed trains, gas-powered  Anticipations (1901) – the world in the year automobiles 2000, motor trucks, air power in war From the Earth to the Moon (1865) –  “The Discovery of the Future” (1902) – aluminum space capsule, splashdowns speech calling for a science of the future Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea  The World Set Free (1914) – the atomic (1870) – the electric submarine bomb and its use In The Year 2889 (1889, short story) –  The Shape of Things to Come (1933) – phonotelephote (videoconferencing), news broadcasts future history - World War II, World State 6
    • 7. The History of the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 Predictions about the future have been common throughout history  You are bound to be right some of the time  Article by John Elfreth Watkins, Jr. (Dec. 1900 issue of Ladies Home Journal)  Predictions for the year 2000: – 350-500M people living in America – There will be no C, X or Q – Hot and cold air from spigots – Coal will not be used for heating or cooking – Photographs will be telegraphed from any distance – Wireless telephone and telegraph circuits will span the world – Trains traveling at 150 mph – Pneumatic tubes will deliver packages 7
    • 8. The History of the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012The 1939 World’s Fair brought the “The World ofTomorrow” to the masses The future can be better through the application of science and technology General Motors’ “Futurama” exhibit – The world in the year 1960 – Automobile manufacturer’s vision of the future – Superhighways, multi-decked bridges, speed lanes – Usefulness of automobiles – Urban planning concepts An optimistic vision of the future put on hold by World War II 8
    • 9. The History of the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 VIDEO (1939 World’s Fair – 5:42) 9
    • 10. The History of the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012France contributed extensively to the field of foresight,focusing on the future as an act of individual creation  Reconstruction post World War II  Satre and Camus “The future is  Gaston Berger not the realm – International Center for Foresight of ‘true or (1957) – Prospective false’ but the realm of  Pierre Massé – Committee of 1985 (1963) ‘possibles’.” - De Jouvenel  Bertrand de Jouvenel – Futuribles (1960) – The Art of Conjecture (1964) 10
    • 11. The History of the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012American futurism had its origins in military technologyforecasting President Hoover’s Committee on U.S. Social Trends (1933) – William F. Ogburn – Published the first catalog of trends for the U.S., “Recent Social Trends” Scientific Advisory Group (1944) – Long-range studies on the future of military aviation – Theodore von Kármán – Toward New Horizons (1947) Founding of the RAND Corporation (1948) – War gaming, the “scenario”, game theory, operations research, Delphi technique (1964) – Herman Kahn Commission on the Year 2000 (1965) – Daniel Bell – Toward the Year 2000 (1967) 11
    • 12. The History of the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 20121964-65 New York World’s Fair – the end of an optimistic era Showcase of mid-20th century American culture and technology – General Motors – IBM – Bell Systems – DuPont – Westinghouse – General Electric Highlights of the “Space Age” Demonstrated the use of computer technology – Mainframes – Computer terminals with keyboards and CRT displays – Teletype machines and telephone modems The “Disney World’s Fair” 12
    • 13. The History of the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 VIDEO (1965 World’s Fair – 7:17) 13
    • 14. The History of the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012In the mid-to-late 20th century dire warnings about thefuture dominated The Challenge developmental Harrison Brown 1954to Mans Future problems environmental Silent Spring Rachel Carson 1962 damageThe Population Paul Ehrlich 1968 overpopulation Bomb The Limits to limited The Club of Rome 1972 Growth resources 14
    • 15. The History of the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Peter Drucker – a master of business foresight trying toimprove the way society worked The Future of 1942 Changing role of business in society Industrial Man Concept of a How large corporations impact society on a 1946 Corporation broad level; Decentralization Americas Next Labor shortages, automation, significant wealth 1957 Twenty Years in the hands of a few individuals Landmarks of The concept of the “knowledge worker” (work 1959 Tomorrow that is based on the mind, rather than the hand) The Age of The knowledge society, world economy (Global 1969 Discontinuity Shopping Centre)“Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country roadat night with no lights while looking out the back window.” 15
    • 16. The History of the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Exploring the future entered the popular mainstreamand became a tool for business 1970 1982 1991 1994 16
    • 17. The History of the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 Visions of the future of technology have been popular throughout history – a view from the 1970s 17SOURCE: Future Cities: Homes and Living into the 21st Century (World of the Future), 1979
    • 18. The History of the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 The jobs of 2012 as seen by 1982…  Thanks to the home computer: – Travel agents and stockbrokers will become scarce – Jobs at the post office will disappear IS EARTH CENTURIAN GETTING TOO EMPLOYMENT CROWDED FOR COUNSELOR. Would you YOU? New Frontiers, like to specialize in the Inc. is currently listing employment needs of persons thousands of job over 100? High-level job opportunities in space. search skills necessary. Top Registration pay, liberal time off benefits. information from Contact Lyn, CENTURY TY**039##4 EMPLOYMENT, *193B8*G26OURCE: http://blogs.smithsonianmag.com/paleofuture/2012/05/no-more-travel-agents-or-stockbrokers-1982s-jobs-of-the-year-2012/ 18
    • 19. The History of the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012The world in 2034 19
    • 20. The History of the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012The Shanghai World Expo (2010) focused on oururban future “Better City – Better Life”, urban best practices and concepts Largest number of participating countries; most expensive 73M visitors (mostly Chinese nationals) Theme, national and corporate pavilions “Pavilion of Future” – focused on cities 20
    • 21. The History of the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 VIDEO (2010 Shanghai Expo Pavilion of Future – 2:41) 21

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