MGT581 Business Foresight

2,420 views
2,303 views

Published on

Published in: Business
1 Comment
9 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Dear David Jarvis:
    I would like to connect with you to discuss the possibility of partnering with you to deliver this course/workshop in the Caribbean.
    Claire Nelson Ph.D.
    www.thefuturesforum.org
    nelson.claire@gmail.com
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
No Downloads
Views
Total views
2,420
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
40
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
1
Likes
9
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • An increasing number of companies seek foresight capability to be able to develop a strategy that can withstand medium term uncertainties Companies increasingly find a near term strategy plan only serves as a component of robust strategic direction; many have started to use both tools and processes to form longer-term visions (2015/2020). Foresight is critical for a senior team to align on a set of portfolio bets, to develop the next billion dollar growth platforms, and to manage risks Companies that have introduced employees to tools around trend literacy are thought to have more aligned views around the future
  • http://www.z-punkt.de/workshops-en.html http://www.forbes.com/2007/10/13/futurist-business-consultant-tech-future07-cx_ee_1015futurist.html
  • “ Blueprints” - policymakers pay little attention to efficient energy use until supplies are tight; greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks “ Scramble” - growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution; a price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies
  • http://www.slideshare.net/CiscoIBSG/ten-technology-trends-that-will-change-the-world-in-ten-years
  • "... team is part of Nokia’s corporate strategy team , we spend significant time looking at the fairly long term issues...generally falling in the three to five year timeframe.“ http://scip.cms-plus.com/files/FileDownloads/0904_Richardson%20interview.pdf
  • Nokia's head of corporate strategy, Heikki Norta The Way We Live Next 3.0 was a unique two-day event at Nokia’s global headquarters in Espoo, Finland. The event featured presentations and demonstrations from Nokia and our ecosystem partners, showing how we are connecting and building the communities of the future – many were presented and showcased for the first time. A presentation laced with liberal doses of augmented reality , pervasive connectivity , dual-display clamshells , and as always: micro projectors and laser keyboards . Beyond hardware and software, Nokia sees itself at the heart of a global network aggregating data from hundreds of millions of intelligent devices for an unprecedented level of knowledge sharing that enables services such as highly localized traffic reports and weather trends . http://www.engadget.com/2009/11/11/nokia-reveals-2015-vision-while-struggling-with-2009-realities/
  • MGT581 Business Foresight

    1. 1. David A. JarvisSalve Regina University, MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Business ForesightHow Companies Explore the Future
    2. 2. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 VIDEO (Corning - “A Day Made of Glass 2” – 5:59) 2
    3. 3. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 VIDEO (Google - “Project Glass: One Day…” – 2:30) 3
    4. 4. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 VIDEO (Microsoft - “Productivity Future Vision” – 6:17) 4
    5. 5. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 VIDEO (Microsoft’s Vision of the Future Parody – 2:27) 5
    6. 6. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 Businesses use the power of foresight to address four objectives GROWTH VISION ALIGNMENT RISK The future will be about more waves, bigger waves, faster waves, and global waves. Successful strategies in the 21st century must anticipate and take advantage of these shifts.SOURCE: Boston Consulting Group 6
    7. 7. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 What is the value of business foresight to an organization? Exploring long-term Reducing uncertainty Identifying changes market developments for the organization in customer needs Influencing others Evaluating potential Initiating innovations (customers, suppliers, innovations and lawmakers, industries) challenging R&D Facilitating process Providing strategic Acting as an early and organizational guidance to leaders warning system change and decision makersSOURCE: Ruff, F. 2006. Corporate foresight: integrating the future business environment into innovation and strategy. International Journal of TechnologyManagement, 34(3-4): 278-295; http://www.futureorientation.net/2010/08/18/exploring-the-value-creation-of-corporate-foresight/ 7
    8. 8. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Companies approach foresight in different ways  Formal vs. ad-hoc programs Structure of  Permanent vs. part-time staff, and the use of external consultants the approach  All employees involved in the process vs. just senior leadership  A listening post, observatory, think-tank, or emerging business incubator Function inthe enterprise  Market focused vs. internally focused  Practical/strategic vs. creative in nature Location  Research and development, product design within the  New and emerging business development, strategic planning organization  Market and competitive intelligence, marketing and communications  Different time horizons – 1-3 years, 3-5 years, 10+ years Maturity of  Industry needs – consumer products vs. capital goods, lead time for foresight product development and investments practices  Focused on developing reports and content or facilitating innovation and foresight processes 8
    9. 9. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Business foresight examples 9
    10. 10. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Things to consider…1. What types of techniques do they use?2. How are they organized?3. What is their timeframe? How far do they look out?4. What are their visions of the future, and how do they see themselves shaping that future?5. What domains do they focus on?6. How can I adapt what they do to what I do? 10
    11. 11. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Siemens’ “Pictures of the Future”  Quarterly magazine exploring transformational technologies and implications  Scenarios and systematic examination of trends that will shape future business • Socio-economic • Market • Customer • Technological  R&D summary (150 locations worldwide)  Sample topics: • Factories of the Future • Materials for the Environment • The Next Economy • Livable Megacities • Elements of Life: Solutions for a Thirsty PlanetSOURCE: Siemens Website, http://w1.siemens.com/innovation/en/publikationen/publications_pof/index.htm 11
    12. 12. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 The “Siemens Way” of planning for the futureSOURCE: Siemens Website, http://w1.siemens.com/innovation/en/publikationen/publications_pof/index.htm 12
    13. 13. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Daimler AG’s Society & Technology Research Group About • Founded in 1979, a group of ~40 that provides future perspectives • Social change, lifestyles, consumption • Mobility, transportation, traffic Focus • Energy, resources, environment • Innovation, value creation, organization • Linking Daimler and its markets with the “big picture” Mission • Provides “outside in” research and tailor-made services to support management with its strategic, market, and product planning • Berlin (Germany), Palo Alto (California) and Kyoto (Japan) Structure • Economics, sociology, mathematics, engineering. transportation science • Development of future scenarios • International business and market environment analysis Core • Analysis of future customer needs competencies • Identification of opportunities and risks for products, services and processes • Prospective evaluation of innovationsSOURCE: Daimler’s Website, http://www.daimler-technicity.de/en/future-gazing/#more-1530 13
    14. 14. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 Daimler’s future focused products and publications • Internal publication covering strategically significant developments Delta • Contains basic economic data, ecological developments, traffic- Report related information, social trends Daimler • Illustrates the broad spectrum of risks to the company and Risk Map examines how to turn into strategic opportunities The • Quarterly publication of the STRG’s latest research for partners Future’s and customers News • Magazine covering intelligent high-tech applications, urban mobility Technicity solutions, technology and innovation processes, trends in creativity and innovation 14SOURCE: Daimler’s Website, http://www.daimler-technicity.de/en/mission-future-2/
    15. 15. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Royal Dutch Shell pioneered the use of scenarios by business  Have been using scenarios for over 30 years  Pioneered by Pierre Wack, Peter Schwartz, Arie de Geus, Kees van der Heijden  Provide alternative views of the future; identify significant events, main actors and their motivations, convey how the world functions  Used to test strategies against potential developments  “How to” guide - Scenarios: An Explorer’s Guide  Current Shell energy scenarios to 2050 – Blueprints – ScrambleSOURCE: Shell Website, http://www.shell.com/scenarios 15
    16. 16. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 VIDEO (Shell energy scenarios to 2050 – 8:40) 16
    17. 17. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Disney has a tradition of envisioningand communicating the future 17
    18. 18. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 18
    19. 19. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Cisco’s Futurist – A focus on technology forecasting Focus purely on technology trends Believes in the ‘technology avalanche’ – The rate of technology innovation is accelerating faster than most estimations – Exponential growth in storage, bandwidth, information, and computing power will result in vast Dave Evans technological leaps Chief Technologist and Futurist, Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group 19
    20. 20. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 Arup’s Foresight program focuses internally and externally MAKE FACILITATE COMMUNICATE  Continuous research  Design, organize and  Research and publish and prototyping deliver sector-based reports, articles, workshops and papers, blogs and  Use emerging ideas, events educational materials concepts and technologies so that  Network with leading  Give talks, produce we are in a better thinkers and short films and curate position to inspire and practitioners from exhibitions inform around the world “We identify and communicate the trends and issues likely to have a significant impact in the built environment and society at large.”SOURCE: Arup website, http://www.driversofchange.com/ 20
    21. 21. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Looking at the future of higher education Students of the future: their needs and expectations – More diverse student body – Cultural backgrounds, learning styles, range of interests Changing the delivery of higher education – Networked, “always-on” students will want constant access – Learning materials, resources, other students, experts, faculty Physical facilities and learning environments – Blend of the physical and digital campus experience – Intelligent buildings Skills needed by future employers 21
    22. 22. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Yes, even beer has a future!  Mega-trends: four emerging global forces – Super diversity – Global migration – Earth strain – Technology explosion  The future of ideas and innovations  The future of cost management  The future of people  Corporate responsibilities 22
    23. 23. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012
    24. 24. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 EXERCISE (Future Logo) 24
    25. 25. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012EXAMPLE: Pepsi’s Evolution 25
    26. 26. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012EXAMPLE: IBM’s Evolution 1911 1924 1947 1956 1972 – Current 26
    27. 27. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012EXERCISE – Future Logo  Divide into teams  Each team picks a major corporation or organization of today (or their own)  Develop 3-4 trends that could impact that organization over the next 10-20 years  Based on your trends, design a logo that best exemplifies what the organization will evolve into over the next 10-20 years  TIME: ~30 min. 27
    28. 28. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 BACKUP 28
    29. 29. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 Insights from Nokia’s head of strategic intelligence "Market and competitive intelligence has a much more outside-in approach. It’s about what’s "It’s about focusing happening ‘out there’ and how that impacts and on what’s changing changes the environment a company will and it must be future face...Strategic intelligence is one facet of this. oriented." And for me strategic references those issues that tend to be big in value terms and cover a longer timeframe.” "Predicting what will happen over the next five years does require companies to use techniques such as scenarios and early warning signal analysis."SOURCE: A Discussion with Peter Richardson of Nokia: SCIP European CI Summit Keynote (2009) 29
    30. 30. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Nokia’s vision of the future A Day in the Life in 2015 By 2015, all people will experience the full power of being connected everywhere anytime Highly personalized and contextually relevant solutions become passports that take us wherever we want or need to be, whenever we want or need to be there We will be able to live a more spontaneous life, never missing an opportunity, as mobile devices and services will learn and anticipate our wants and needs 30
    31. 31. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 VIDEO (Nokia Mixed Reality – 3:12) 31
    32. 32. Business Foresight – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Drivers of Changea set of cards posing questions anddetailing trends 32

    ×