Japanese candlestick charting techniques by steve nison

15,742 views
15,489 views

Published on

Published in: Business, Economy & Finance
2 Comments
15 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • @Frank S. Ollie - I need time to use up to 3 weeks. I'm very happy for my capital.
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
  • Hello, Today I want to share my personal experience that helps my business. It is a great surprise for all traders. First time, I applied _Insider John_ but I got bad output, loss and many time fake signals. Then I got free binary video tutorials of *BinaryBoom* from my friend. The *BinaryBoom* is new version, so easy, always provides me right time signal to buy or sell and auto earning. The _Insider John_ gives me 15%-25% profit before *BinaryBoom* gives me 55%-80% profit till now. I took my product price only 1 day by using The *BinaryBoom* after that it brings only profit to me. I recommend you that *BinaryBoom* has a customer support also. You can check by visiting their *official website* http://tinyurl.com/boomfree "Totally free"
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
No Downloads
Views
Total views
15,742
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
630
Comments
2
Likes
15
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Japanese candlestick charting techniques by steve nison

  1. 1. JAPANESE CANDLESTICKCHARTING TECHNIQUES
  2. 2. ~ - Y ? ~ L & B ~ E ! %L ? A B W t"Candles Exhaust Themselves to Give Light to Men"
  3. 3. JAPANESECANDLESTICKCHARTINGTECHNIQUESA Contemporary Guide to the AncientInvestment Techniques of the Far EastSTEVE NISONNEW YORK INSTITUTE OF FINANCENewYork London Toronto Sydney Tokyo Singapore
  4. 4. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication DataNison, Steve.Japanese candlestick charting techniques : a contemporary guide tothe ancient investment technique of the Far East I Steve Nison.p. cm.Includes bibliographical references and index.ISBN 0-13-931650-71. Stocks-Charts, diagrams, etc. 2. Investment analysis.I. Title.HG4638.N57 1991 90-22736332.6322-dc20 CIPThis publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative infor-mation in regard to the subject matter covered. It is sold with theunderstanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering legal,accounting, or other professional service. If legal advice or other expertassistance is required, the services of a competent professionalperson should be sought.From a Declaration of Principles Jointly Adopted bya Committee of the American Bar Associationand a Committee of Publishers and Associations01991 by Steve NisonAll rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in anyform or by any means without permission in writing from the pub-lisher.New York Institute of FinanceSimon & SchusterPrinted in the United States of America1 0 9 8 7
  5. 5. AcknowledgementsLike having ice cream after a tonsillectomy, this section is my treat afterthe books completion.Some of those who deserve recognition for their help are addressedin Chapter 1 in my discussion of my candlestick education. There aremany others whom I would like to thank for their help along my candle-stick path. Candles might help light the way, but without the assistanceand insights of many others it would have been almost impossible to dothis book. There were so many who contributed in one way or anotherto this project that if I have forgotten to mention anyone I apologize forthis oversight.The Market Technicians Association (MTA)deserves special mention.It was at the MTAfslibrary that I first discovered candlestick materialwritten in English. This material, albeit scant, was extremely difficult toobtain, but the marvelously complete MTA library had it. This informa-tion provided the scaffolding for the rest of my candlestick endeavors.Besides the two English references on candlesticks I mention inChapter 1, I also obtained a wealth of information from books publishedin Japanese. I would like to thank the following Japanese publishers andauthors for these books that I used as references:Kabushikisouba no Technical Bunseki (Stock Market Technical Analysis) byGappo Ikutaro, published by Nihon Keizai ShinbunshaKabuka Chato no Tashikana Yomikata (A Sure Way to Read Stock Charts) byKatsutoshi Ishii, published by JiyukokuminshaKeisen Kyoshitsu Part 1 (Chart Classroom Part I ) , published by Toshi RaderHajimete Kabuka Chato wo Yomu Hito no Hon (A Book for Those Reading StockCharts for the First Time) by Kazutaka Hoshii, published by Asukash-uppansha
  6. 6. vi AcknowledgementsNihon Keisenshi (The History of Japanese Charts), Chapter 2 by KenjiOyama, published by Nihon Keisai ShimbunshaShinpan Jissen Kabushiki Chart Nyumon (Introduction to Stock Charts) byOkasan Keisai Kenkyusho, published by Diamond-shaSakata Goho Wa Furinkazan (Sakatas Five Rules are Wind, Forest, Fire andMountain), published by Nihon Shoken ShimbunshaYoshimi Toshihiko no Chato Kyoshitsu (Toshihiko Yoshimis Chart Classroom) byToshihiko Yoshimi, published by Nihon ChartThen theres the team at Merrill Lynch who were so helpful in look-ing over the manuscript, making suggestions, and providing ideas. JohnGambino, one of the best colleagues anyone can work with provided allthe Elliott Wave counts in this book. Chris Stewart, Manager of FuturesResearch, not only read the entire manuscript but provided valuablesuggestions and finely dissected the many, many charts I used. I alsowant to thank Jack Kavanagh in compliance who also read the manu-script. Yuko Song provided extra insights by conveying some of my can-dlestick questions to her Japanese customers who use candlesticks.I have included hundreds of charts in this book from various services.Before I thank all the services that have generously provided use of theircandlestick charts, I want to give plaudits to Bloomberg L.P. and CQG(Commodity Quote Graphics).Bloomberg L.P. was among the first on-line services to provide can-dlestick charts on the American markets. Its too bad I didnt discoverthis earlier. I was drawing candlestick charts on my own for years beforeI found out about Bloomberg. CQG, an on-line futures charting service,was also among the first to see the potential of candlestick charts. Withina few weeks of my first candlestick article, they sent me an alpha test(this is a high-tech term for the very early stages of software prototypetesting) of their candlestick software for my CQG System OneT". Once Ihad this software, my candlestick research progressed exponentially.Most of the charts in this book are courtesy of CQG.Besides Bloomberg L.P. and CQG, other services that were kindenough to provide charts are:Commodity Trend Service Charts (North Palm Beach, FL), CompuTracT"(New Orleans, LA), Ensign Software (Idaho Falls, ID), Future-SourceT" (Lombard, Ill), and Quick 10-E Financial Information System(New York, N.Y.).I want to thank those who took time from their busy schedules toreview the introductions for Part Two of the book. These are: Dan
  7. 7. -- -Acknowledgements viiGramza for the chapter on Market Profile@;Jeff Korzenik for the chapterson options and hedging; John Murphy for the chapter on volume andopen interest; once again, John Gambino for the chapter on Elliott Wave;Charles LeBeau for the chapter on oscillators; Gerard Sanfilippo andJudy Ganes for the chapter on hedging; and Bruce Kamich for theEnglish language glossary.The Nippon Technical Analysts Association (NTAA)deserves utmostpraise for their assistance. Mr. Kojiiro Watanabe at the Tokyo InvestmentInformation Center helped me to contact NTAA members who havebeen especially helpful. They are: Mr. Minoru Eda, Manager, QuantativeResearch, Kokusai Securities Co.; Mr. Yasushi Hayashi, Senior ForeignExchange Trader at Sumitomo Life Insurance; and Mr. Nori Hayashi,Senior Analyst, Fidelity Management and Research (Far East). When Iasked them questions via fax I expected just brief answers. But thesethree NTAA members took their valuable time to write pages of explana-tions, complete with drawings. They were wonderful about sharing theircandlestick experiences and insights with me. I also want to thank themfor reading over and providing information for Chapter 2 on the historyof Japanese technical analysis. If there are any mistakes that remain, theyare those that I failed to correct.I want to thank again "idea a day" Bruce Kamich. Bruce is a friendand a fellow futures technician. Throughout our 15-year friendship hehas provided me with many valuable ideas and suggestions. Probablytwo of the most important were his suggestion that I join the MTA andhis constant haranguing until I agreed to write a book about candle-sticks.Then theres the publishing staff of the New York Institute ofFinance. They were all great, but those with whom I worked mostclosely deserve extra praise. Susan Barry and Sheck Cho patiently, skill-fully and affably guided a neophyte author through the labyrinth of thebook publishing business.Of course there is my family. At the time that I was writing this book,our newborn son Evan entered the picture (with all the excitement aboutcandlesticks, I came close to callinghim Candlesticks Nison).Try writing abook with a newborn and a rambunctious four-year-old daughter, Rebec-ca, and you start to get an idea of how much my wife, Bonnie, contributedto this book. She cared for the children while I maladroitlypummeled awayat the keyboard. Obviously, she had the harder job.For each chapters heading, and throughout the book, I used Japa-nese proverbs or sayings. Many times proverbs in the United States areconsidered trite and are rarely used. This is not so in Japan where prov-erbs are respected. Besides being enjoyable to read, the Japanese prov-erbs offer insights into Japanese beliefs and perspectives. I would like to
  8. 8. viii Acknowledgementsthank the following publishers for the use of their material for the prov-erbs and sayings used in this book: University of Oklahoma Press,Charles E. Tuttle, and Kenkyusha Ltd.Finally, I must give proper and legal acknowledgements to many ofthe services I relied upon during my writing and research. Tick VolumeProfileT" is a registered trademark of CQG. Market Profile@and Liquid-ity Data Bank@are registered trademarks of the Chicago Board of Trade.The CBOT holds exclusive copyrights to the Market ProfileB and Liquid-ity Data Bank@graphics. Graphics reproduced herein under the permis-sion of the Chicago Board of Trade. The views expressed in thispublication are solely those of the author and are not to be construed asthe views of the Chicago Board of Trade nor is the Chicago Board ofTrade in any way responsible for the contents thereof.
  9. 9. PREFACE"A clever hawk hides his claws"Would you like to learn a technical system refined by centuries of use,but virtually unknown here? A system so versatile that it can be fusedwith any Western technical tool? A system as pleasurable to use as it ispowerful? If so, this book on Japanese candlestick charting techniques isfor you. You should find it valuable no matter what your background intechnical analysis.Japanese candlestick charts are older than bar charts and point andfigure charts. Candlesticks are exciting, powerful, and fun. Using can-dlesticks will help improve your market analysis. My focus will bemainly on the U.S. markets, but the tools and techniques in this bookshould be applicable to almost any market.Candlestick techniques can be used for speculation and hedging.They can be used for futures, equities, options, or anywhere technicalanalysis is applied. By reading this book you will discover how candle-sticks will add another dimension of analysis.Do not worry if you have never seen a candlestick chart. The assump-tion of this book is that they are new to you. Indeed, they are new to thevast majority of the American and European trading and investing com-munity.If you are a seasoned technician, you will discover how joining Japa-nese candlesticks with your other technical tools can create a powerfulsynergy of techniques. The chapters on joining Japanese candlesticktechniques with Western technical tools will be of strong interest to you.If you are an amateur technician, you will find how effective candle-stick charts are as a stand alone charting method. To help guide you, I
  10. 10. x Prefacehave included a glossary of all the western and Japanese candlestickterms used.The Japanese technicals are honed by hundreds of years of evolution.Yet, amazingly, we do not know how the Japanese analyze our marketswith their traditional technical tool called candlesticks. This is disconcert-ing if you consider that they are among the biggest players in the finan-cial markets. The Japanese are big technical traders. Knowing how theJapanese use candlestick charts to analyze both our markets and theirsmay help you answer the question "What are the Japanese going to do?"The Japanese use a combination of western chart and candlesticktechniques to analyze the markets. Why shouldnt we do the same? Ifyou do not learn about Japanese candlestick charts, your competitionwill!If you like reading about colorful terminology like "hanging-manlines," "dark-cloud covers," and "evening stars" then this book is foryou. If you subscribe to one of the multitude of services now providingcandlestick charts and would like to learn how to use these charts, thenthis book is for you.In the first part of the book, you learn how to draw and interpret over50 candlestick lines and formations. This will slowly and clearly lay asolid foundation for the second part where you will learn to use candle-sticks in combination with Western technical techniques.This book will not give you market omniscience. It will, however,open new avenues of analysis and will show how Japanese candlestickscan "enlighten" your trading.
  11. 11. ContentsPreface ixChapter 1 INTRODUCTION 1Some background, 1How I learned about candlestick charts, 1Why have candlestick charting techniques capturedthe attention of traders and investors around the world?, 4What is in this book, 5Some limitations, 7The importance of technical analysis, 8Chapter 2 A HISTORICAL BACKGROUNDPART ONE: THE BASICSChapter 3 CONSTRUCTING THE CANDLESTICKSDrawing the candlestick lines, 21Chapter 4 REVERSAL PATTERNSHammer and hanging-man lines, 28Engulfing pattern, 38Dark-cloud cover, 43Piercing pattern, 48
  12. 12. xii ContentsChapter 5Chapter 6Chapter 7Chapter 8Chapter 9STARS 55The morning star, 56The evening star, 59The morning and evening doji stars, 64The shooting star and the inverted hammer, 70The inverted hammer, 75MORE REVERSAL PATTERNSThe harami pattern, 79Harami Cross, 85Tweezers tops and bottoms, 88Belt-hold lines, 94Upside-gap two crows, 98Three black crows, 101The counterattack lines, 103Three mountains and three rivers, 107The importance of the number three in candlesticks, 112Dumpling tops and fry pan bottoms, 113Tower tops and tower bottoms, 115CONTINUATION PATTERNSWindows, 119Upward- and downward-gap tasuki, 129High-price and low-price gapping plays, 131Gapping side-by-side white lines, 134Rising and falling three methods, 135Three advancing white soldiers, 143Separating lines, 147THE MAGIC DOJIThe importance of the doji, 149Doji at tops, 150Doji after a long white candlestick, 154The long-legged doji and the rickshaw man, 154The gravestone doji, 159Doji as support and resistance, 161The tri-star, 162PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER . 165
  13. 13. xiv ContentsChapter 16 CANDLESTICKS WITH ELLIOTT WAVEElliott wave basics, 253Elliott wave with candlesticks, 254Chapter 17CANDLESTICKS WITH MARKET PROFILE"Market profile" with candlesticks, 261Chapter 18CANDLESTICKS WITH OPTIONSOptions basics, 268Options with candlesticks, 269Chapter 19 HEDGING WITH CANDLESTICKSChapter 20 HOW I HAVE USED CANDLESTICKSCONCLUSIONGlossary A CANDLESTICK TERMS AND VISUAL GLOSSARYGlossary B AMERICAN TECHNICAL TERMSBIBLIOGRAPHYINDEX
  14. 14. Contents xiiiPART TWO: THE RULE OF MULTIPLETECHNICAL TECHNIQUESChapter 10 A CONFLUENCE OF CANDLESTICKSChapter 11CANDLESTICKS WITH TRENDLINESSupport and resistance lines with candlesticks, 185Springs and upthrusts, 193The change of polarity principle, 201Chapter 12 CANDLESTICKS WITH RETRACEMENT LEVELSChapter 13 CANDLESTICKS WITH MOVING AVERAGESThe simple moving average, 215The weighted moving average, 216The exponential moving average and the MACD, 216How to use moving averages, 217Dual moving averages, 220Chapter 14 CANDLESTICKS WITH OSCILLATORSOscillators, 227The relative strength index, 228How to Compute the RSI, 228How to Use RSI, 229Stochastics, 232How to Compute Stochastics, 232How to Use Stochastics, 233Momentum, 236Chapter 15 CANDLESTICKS WITH VOLUME AND OPEN INTEREST 241Volume with candlesticks, 242On balance volume (OBV), 244OBV with candlesticks, 245Tick volume", 245Tick Volume"with candlesticks, 246Open interest, 248Open interest with candlesticks, 249
  15. 15. CHAPTER 1INTRODUCTIONliA S"The beginning is most important"SOME BACKGROUNDSome of you may have already heard of candlecharts. Probably, manymore of you have not. In December 1989, I wrote an introductory articleon candlesticks that precipitated an immediate groundswell of interest.It turned out that I was one of the few Americans familiar with thiscenturies-old Japanese technique. I wrote follow-up articles, gavenumerous presentations, taught classes, and was interviewed on televi-sion and by newspapers across the country. In early 1990, I wrote a shortreference piece for my Chartered Market Technician thesis about candle-stick charts. It contained very basic introductory material, but it was theonly readily available information on candlestick charts in the UnitedStates. This handout became very popular. Within a few months, MerrillLynch, the publisher of the booklet, received over 10,000 requests.HOW I LEARNED ABOUT CANDLESTICK CHARTS"Why," I have often asked myself, "has a system which has beenaround so long almost completely unknown in the West?"Were the Jap-anese trying to keep it secret? Was it the lack of information in theUnited States? I dont know the answer, but it has taken years ofresearch to fit all the pieces together. I was fortunate in several ways.
  16. 16. 2 IntroductionPerhaps my perseverance and serendipity were the unique combinationneeded that others did not have.In 1987, I became acquainted with a Japanese broker. One day, whileI was with her in her office, she was looking at one of her Japanese stockchart books (Japanese chart books are in candlestick form). Sheexclaimed, "look, a window." I asked what she was talking about. Shetold me a window was the same as a gap in Western technicals. She wenton to explain that while Western technicians use the expression "fillingin the gap" the Japanese would say "closing the window." She thenused other expresions like, "doji" and "dark-cloud cover." I washooked. I spent the next few years exploring, researching, and analyz-ing anything I could about candlestick charts.It was not easy. There are scant English publications on the subject.My initial education was with the help of a Japanese broker and throughdrawing and analyzing candlestick charts on my own. Then, thanks tothe Market Technicians Association (MTA)library, I came across a book-let published by the Nippon Technical Analysts Association called Anal-ysis of Stock Price in Japan. It was a Japanese booklet which had beentranslated into English. Unfortunately, there were just ten pages oninterpreting candlestick charts. Nonetheless, I finally had some Englishcandlestick material.A few months later, I borrowed a book that has had a major influenceon my professional life. The MTA office manager, Shelley Lebeck,brought a book entitled The Japanese Chart of Charts by Seiki Shimizu andtranslated by Greg Nicholson (published by the Tokyo Futures TradingPublishing Co.) back from Japan. It contains about 70 pages on candle-stick charts and is written in English. Reading it was like finding an oasisin a desert.As I discovered, while the book yielded a harvest of information, ittook some effort and time to get comfortable with its concepts. Theywere all so new. I also had to become comfortable with the Japanese ter-minology. The writing style was sometimes obscure. Part of this mighthave resulted from the translation. The book was originally written inJapanese about 25 years ago for a Japanese audience. I also found out,when I had my own material translated, that it is dreadfully difficult totranslate such a specialized subject from Japanese to English. Nonethe-less, I had some written reference material. This book became my"Rosetta Stone."I carried the book with me for months, reading and rereading, takingcopious notes, applying the candlestick methods to the scores of myhand-drawn candlestick charts. I chewed and grinded away at the newideas and terminology. I was fortunate in another sense. I had the help
  17. 17. Introduction 3of the author, Seiki Shimizu, to answer my many questions. AlthoughMr. Shimizu does not speak English, the translator of the book, GregNicholson, graciously acted as our intermediary via fax messages. TheJapaneseChart of Charts provided the foundation for the rest of my inves-tigation into candlesticks. Without that book, this book would not havebeen possible.In order to continually develop my abilities in candlestick chartingtechniques, I sought out Japanese candlestick practitioners who wouldhave the time and inclination to speak with me about the subject. I meta Japanese trader, Morihiko Goto who had been using candlestick chartsand who was willing to share his valuable time and insights. This wasexciting enough! Then he told me that his family had been using candle-stick charts for generations! We spent many hours discussing the historyand the uses of candlestick charts. He was an invaluable storehouse ofknowledge.I also had an extensive amount of Japanese candlestick literaturetranslated. Obtaining the original Japanese candlestick information wasone problem. Getting it translated was another. Based on one estimatethere are probably fewer than 400 full-time Japanese-to-English transla-tors in America (this includes part-time translators) I had to find a trans-lator who could not only translate routine material, but also the highlyspecialized subject of technical analysis. In this regard I was lucky tohave the help of Languages Services Unlimited in New York. The direc-tor, Richard Solberg, provided indispensable help to this project. He wasa rarity. He was an American fluent in Japanese who understood, andused, technical analysis. Not only did Richard do a wonderful job oftranslating, but he helped me hunt down and obtain Japanese candle-stick literature. Thanks to his help I might have the largest collection ofJapanese books on candlesticks in the country. Without Richard this bookwould have been much less extensive.Before my introductory article on candlestick charts appeared in late1989, there were few services offering candlestick charts in the UnitedStates. Now a plethora of services offer these charts. These include:Bloomberg L.P. (New York, NY);Commodity Trend Service Charts (North Palm Beach, FL);CompuTrac"(New Orleans, LA);CQG (Glenwood Springs, CO);Ensign Software (Idaho Falls, ID);Futuresource"(Lombard, IL); andKnight Ridder-Commodity Perspective (Chicago, L).
  18. 18. 4 IntroductionBy the time you read this book, there probably will be additional servicesproviding candlestick charts. Their popularity grows stronger every day.The profusion of services offering the candlestick charts attests to boththeir popularity and their usefulness.WHY HAVE CANDLESTICK CHARTING TECHNIQUESCAPTURED THE ATTENTION OF TRADERSAND INVESTORS AROUND THE WORLD?I have had calls and faxs from around the world requesting more infor-mation about candlestick techniques. Why the extensive interest? Thereare many reasons and a few are:1. Candlestick charts are flexible. Users run the spectrum from first-timechartists to seasoned professionals. This is because candlestick chartscan be used alone or in combination with other technical analysistechniques. A significant advantage attributed to candlestick chartingtechniques is that these techniques can be used in addition to, notinstead of, other technical tools. I am not trying to convince veterantechnicians that this system is superior to whatever else they may beusing. That is not my claim. My claim is that candlestick chartingtechniques provide an extra dimension of analysis.2. Candlestick charting techniques are for the most part unused in theUnited States. Yet, this technical approach enjoys a centuries-old tra-dition in the Far East, a tradition which has evolved from centuries oftrial and error.3. Then there are the picturesque terms used to describe the patterns.Would the expression "hanging-man line" spark your interest? This isonly one example of how Japanese terminology gives candlesticks aflavor all their own and, once you get a taste, you will not be able todo without them.4. The Japanese probably know all the Western methods of technicalanalysis, yet we know almost nothing about theirs. Now it is our turnto benefit from their knowledge. The Japanese use a combination ofcandlestick charting techniques along with Western technical tools.Why shouldnt we do the same?5. The primary reason for the widespread attention aroused by candle-stick charts is that using them instead of, or in addition to, bar chartsis a win-win situation.
  19. 19. Introduction 5As we will see in Chapter 3 on drawing candlestick lines, the samedata is required in order to draw the candlestick charts as that which isneeded for our bar charts (that is, the open, high, low, and close). Thisis very significant since it means that any of the technical analysis usedwith bar charting (such as moving averages, trendlines, Elliott Wave,retracements, and so on) can be employed with candlestick charts. But,and this is the key point, candlestick charts can send signals not avail-able from bar charts. In addition, there are some patterns that may allowyou to get the jump on those who use traditional Western charting tech-niques. By employing candlestick charting instead of bar charting youhave the ability to use all the same analyses as you would with barcharting. But candlestick charts provide a unique avenue of analysis notavailable anywhere else.WHAT IS IN THIS BOOK?Part I of the book reveals the basics on constructing, reading, and inter-preting over 50 candlestick chart lines and patterns. Part I1 explains howto meld candlestick charts with Western technical analysis techniques.This is where the true power of candlecharts is manifested. This is howI use them.I have drawn illustrations of candlestick patterns to assist in the edu-cational process. These illustrations are representative examples only.The drawn exhibits should be viewed in the context that they show cer-tain guidelines and principles. The actual patterns do not have to lookexactly as they do in the exhibits in order to provide the reader with avalid signal. This is emphasized throughout the book in the many chartexamples. You will see how variations of the patterns can still providemportant clues about the state of the markets.Thus, there is some subjectivity in deciding whether a certain candle-stick formation meets the guidelines for that particular formation, butthis subjectivity is no different than that used with other charting tech-niques. For instance, is a $400 support area in gold considered broken ifprices go under $400 intra-day, or do prices have to close under $400?Does a $.I0 penetration of $400 substantiate broken support or is a largerpenetration needed? You will have to decide these answers based onyour trading temperment, your risk adversity, and your market philoso-phy. Likewise, through text, illustrations and real examples I will pro-vide the general principles and guidelines for recognizing the candlestickformations. But you should not expect the real-world examples to alwaysmatch their ideal formations.
  20. 20. 6 IntroductionI believe that the best way to explain how an indicator works isthrough marketplace examples. Consequently, I have included manysuch examples. These examples span the entire investment spectrumfrom futures, fixed-income, equity, London metal markets and foreignexchange markets. Since my background is in the futures markets, mostof my charts are from this arena. I also look at the entire time spectrum-from intra-day to daily, weekly, and monthly candlestick charts. For thisbook, when I describe the candlestick lines and patterns, I will oftenrefer to daily data. For instance, I may say that in order to complete acandlestick pattern the market has to open above the prior days high.But the same principles will be valid for all time frames.Two glossaries are at the end of the text. The first includes candle-stick terms and the second Western technical terms used in the book.The candlestick glossary includes a visual glossary of all the patterns.As with any subjective form of technical analysis, there are, at times,variable definitions which will be defined according to the users experi-ence and background. This is true of some candlestick patterns. Depend-ing on my source of information, these were instances in which I cameacross different, albeit usually minor, definitions of what constitutes acertain pattern. For example, one Japanese author writes that the openhas to be above the prior close in order to complete a dark-cloud coverpattern (see Chapter 4). Other written and oral sources say that, for thispattern, the open should be above the prior high.In cases where there were different definitions, I chose the rules thatincreased the probability that the patterns forecast would be correct. Forexample, the pattern referred to in the prior paragraph is a reversal sig-nal that appears at tops. Thus, I chose the definition that the market hasto open above the prior days high. It is more bearish if the market opensabove the prior days high and then fails, then it would be if the marketjust opens above the prior days close and then failed.Much of the Japanese material I had translated is less than specific.Part of this might be the result of the Japanese penchant for being vague.The penchant may have its origins in the feudal ages when it was accept-able for a samurai to behead any commoner who did not treat him asexpected. The commoner did not always know how a samurai expectedhim to act or to answer. By being vague, many heads were spared.However, I think the more important reason for the somewhat ambigtl-ous explanations has to do with the fact that technical analysis is moreof an art than a science. You should not expect rigid rules with mostforms of technical analysis-just guideposts.Yet, because of this uncertainty, some of the ideas in this book maybe swayed by the authors trading philosophy. For instance, if a Japa-nese author says that a candlestick line has to be "surpassed to signal
  21. 21. Introduction 7the next bull move, I equate "surpassed" with "on a close above." Thatis because, to me, a close is more important than an intra-day moveabove a candlestick line. Another example of subjectivity: In the Japa-nese literature many candlestick patterns are described as important at ahigh-price area or at a low-price area. Obviously what constitutes a"high-price" or "low-price" area is open to interpretation.SOME LIMITATIONSAs with all charting methods, candlestick chart patterns are subject tothe interpretation of the user. This could be viewed as a limitation.Extended experience with candlestick charting in your market specialtywill show you which of the patterns, and variations of these patterns,work best. In this sense, subjectivity may not be a liability. As you gainexperience in candlestick techniques, you will discover which candlestickcombinations work best in your market. This may give you an advantageover those who have not devoted the time and energy in tracking yourmarkets as closely as you have.As discussed later in the text, drawing the individual candlestickchart lines requires a close. Therefore, you may have to wait for the closeto get a valid trading signal. This may mean a market on close order maybe needed or you may have to try and anticipate what the close will beand place an order a few minutes prior to the close. You may also preferto wait for the next days opening before placing an order.This aspect may be a problem but there are many technical systems(especially those based on moving averages of closing prices) whichrequire a closing price for a signal. This is why there is often a surge inactivity during the final few minutes of a trading session as computer-ized trading signals, based on closing prices, kick into play. Some tech-nicians consider only a close above resistance a valid buy signal so theyhave to wait until the close for confirmation. This aspect of waiting for aclose is not unique to candlestick charts.On occasion, I can use the hourly candlestick charts to get a tradesignal rather than waiting for the close of that day. For instance, therecould be a potentially bullish candlestick pattern on the daily chart. Yet,I would have to wait for the close before the candlestick pattern is com-pleted. If the hourly charts also show a bullish candlestick indicator dur-ing that day, I may recommend buying (if the prevalent trend is up)even before the close.The opening price is also i.mportant in the candlestick lines. Equitytraders, who do not have access to on-line quote machines, may not be
  22. 22. 8 Introductionable to get opening prices on stocks in their newspapers. I hope that, ascandlestick charts become more common, more newspapers will includeopenings on individual stocks.Candlestick charts provide many useful trading signals. They do not,however, provide price targets. There are other methods to forecast tar-gets (such as prior support or resistance levels, retracements, swingobjectives, and so on). Some Japanese candlestick practitioners place atrade based on a candlestick signal.and stay with that trade until anothercandlestick pattern tells them to offset. Candlestick patterns shouldalways be viewed in the context as to what occurred before and in rela-tion to other technical evidence.With the hundreds of charts throughout this book, do not be sur-prised if you see patterns that I have missed within charts. There willalso be examples of patterns that, at times, did not work. Candlestickswill not provide an infallible trading tool. They do, however, add avibrant color to your technical palette.Candlestick charts allow you to use the same technical devices thatyou use with bar charts. But the candlestick charts give you signals notavailable with bar charts. So why use a bar chart? In the near future,candlestick charts may become as standard as the bar chart. In fact, I amgoing to make a bold prediction: As more technicians become comfortablewith candlestick charts, they will no longer use bar charts. I have been a tech-nical analyst for nearly 20 years. And now, after discovering all theirbenefits, I only use candlestick charts. I still use all the traditional West-ern technical tools, but the candlesticks have given me a unique perspec-tive into the markets.Before I delve into the topic of candlestick charts, I will briefly discussthe importance of technical analysis as a separate discipline. For those ofyou who are new to this topic, the following section is meant to empha-size why technical analysis is so important. It is not an in-depth discus-sion. If you would like to learn more about the topic, I suggest you readJohn Murphys excellent book Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets(The New York Institute of Finance).If you are already familiar with the benefits of technical analysis, youcan skip this section. Do not worry, if you do not read the following sec-tion, it will not interfere with later candlestick chart analysis information.THE IMPORTANCE OF TECHNICAL ANALYSISThe importance of technical analysis is five-fold. First, while funda-mental analysis may provide a gauge of the supplyidemand situations,
  23. 23. Introduction 9pricelearnings ratios, economic statistics, and so forth, there is no psy-chological component involved in such analysis. Yet the markets areinfluenced at times, to a major extent, by emotionalism. An ounce ofemotion can be worth a pound of facts. As John Manyard Keynes stated,"there is nothing so disastrous as a rational investment policy in an irra-tional ~ o r l d . " ~Technical analysis provides the only mechanism to mea-sure the "irrational" (emotional) component present in all markets.Here is an entertaining story about how strongly psychology canaffect a market. It is from the book The New G a t ~ b y s . ~It takes place at theChicago Board of Trade.Soybeans were sharply higher. There was a drought in the Illinois Soy-bean Belt. And unless it ended soon, there would be a severe shortage ofbeans. . . . Suddenly a few drops of water slid down a window. "Look,"someone shouted, "rain!". More than 500 pairs of eyes [the traders-editors note] shifted to the big windows. . . . Then came a steady tricklewhich turned into a steady downpour. It was raining in downtown Chi-cago.Sell. Buy. Buy. Sell. The shouts cascaded from the traders lips with aroar that matched the thunder outside. And the price of soybeans beganto slowly move down. Then the price of soybeans broke like some tropicfever.It was pouring in Chicago all right, but no one grows soybeans in Chi-cago. In the heart of the Soybean Belt, some 300 miles south of Chicagothe sky was blue, sunny and very dry. But even if it wasnt raining onthe soybean fields it was in the heads of the traders, and that is all that counts[emphasis added]. To the market nothing matters unless the marketreacts to it. The game is played with the mind and the emotions [emphasisadded].In order to drive home the point about the importance of mass psy-chology, think about what happens when you exchange a piece of papercalled "money" for some item like food or clothing? Why is that paper,with no intrinsic value, exchanged for something tangible? It is becauseof a shared psychology. Everyone believes it will be accepted, so it is.Once this shared psychology evaporates, when people stop believing inmoney, it becomes worthless.Second, technicals are also an important component of disciplinedtrading. Discipline helps mitigate the nemesis of all traders, namely,emotion. As soon as you have money in the market, emotionalism is inthe drivers seat and rationale and objectivity are merely passengers. Ifyou doubt this, try paper trading. Then try trading with your ownfunds. You will soon discover how deeply the counterproductive aspectsof tension, anticipation, and anxiety alter the way you trade and view
  24. 24. 10 Introductionthe markets-usually in proportion to the funds committed. Technicalscan put objectivity back into the drivers seat. They provide a mechanismto set entry and exit points, to set riskheward ratios, or stoplout levels.By using them, you foster a risk and money management approach totrading.As touched upon in the previous discussion, the technicals contrib-ute to market objectivity. It is human nature, unfortunately, to see themarket as we want to see it, not as it really is. How often does the fol-lowing occur? A trader buys. Immediately the market falls. Does he takea loss. Usually no. Although there is no room for hope in the market, thetrader will glean all the fundamentally bullish news he can in order tobuoy his hope that the market will turn in his direction. Meanwhileprices continue to descend. Perhaps the market is trying to tell himsomething. The markets communicate with us. We can monitor thesemessages by using the technicals. This trader is closing his eyes and earsto the messages being sent by the market.If this trader stepped back and objectively viewed price activity, hemight get a better feel of the market. What if a supposedly bullish storyis released and prices do not move up or even fall? That type of priceaction is sending out volumes of information about the psychology of themarket and how one should trade in it.I believe it was the famous trader Jesse Livermore who expressed theidea that one can see the whole better when one sees it from a distance.Technicals make us step back and get a different and, perhaps, betterperspective on the market.Third, following the technicals is important even if you do not fullybelieve in their use. This is because, at times, the technicals are the majonreason for a market move. Since they are a market moving factor, theyshould be watched.Fourth, random walk proffers that the market price for one day hasno bearing on the price the following day. But this academic view leavesout an important component-people.People remember prices from oneday to the next and act accordingly. To wit, peoples reactions indeedaffect price, but price also affects peoples reactions. Thus, price, itself,is an important component in market analysis. Those who disparagetechnical analysis forget this last point.Fifth, and finally, the price action is the most direct and easily acces-sible method of seeing overall supplyldemand relationships. There maybe fu.ndamenta1 news not known to the general public but you canexpect it is already in the price. Those who have advance knowledge ofsome market moving event will most likely buy or sell until currentprices reflect their information. This knowlehge, at times, consequently,
  25. 25. Introduction 11may be discounted when the event occurs. Thus, current prices shouldreflect all available information, whether known by the general public orby a select few.NOTESHill, Julie Skur. "Thats Not What I Said," Business Tokyo, August 1990, pp. 4647Smith, Adam. The Money Game, New York, NY: Random House, 1986, p. 154.3Tamarkin, Bob. The New Gatsbys, Chicago, IL:Bob Tamarkin, 1985, pp. 122-123.
  26. 26. CHAPTER 2A HISTORICALBACKGROUND"Through Inquiring of the Old We Learn the New"This chapter provides the framework through which Japanese technicalanalysis evolved. For those who are in a rush to get to the "meat" of thebook (that is, the techniques and uses of candlesticks), you can skip thischapter, or return to it after you have completed the rest of the book. Itis an intriguing history.Among the first and the most famous people in Japan to use pastprices to predict future price movements was the legendary MunehisaHomma. He amassed a huge fortune trading in the rice market duringthe 1700s. Before I discuss Homma, I want to provide an overview of theeconomic background in which Homma was able to flourish. The timespan of this overview is from the late 1500s to the mid-1700s. During thisera Japan went from 60 provinces to a unified country where commerceblossomed.From 1500 to 1600, Japan was a country incessantly at war as each ofthe daimyo (literally "big name" meaning "a feudal lord") sought towrestle control of neighboring territories. This 100-year span between1500 and 1600 is referred to as "Sengoku Jidai" or, literally, "Age ofCountry at War." It was a time of disorder. By the early 1600s, threeextraordinary generals-Nobunaga Oda, Hideyoshi Toyotomi, andIeyasu Tokugawa-had unified Japan over a 40-year period. Their prow-ess and achievements are celebrated in Japanese history and folklore.
  27. 27. 14 A Historical BackgroundThere is a Japanese saying: "Nobunaga piled the rice, Hideyoshikneaded the dough, and Tokugawa ate the cake." In other words, allthree generals contributed to Japans unification but Tokugawa, the lastof these great generals, became the shogun whose family ruled Japanfrom 1615 to 1867. This era is referred to as the Tokugawa Shogunate.The military conditions that suffused Japan for centuries became anintegral part of candlestick terminology. And, if you think about it, trad-ing requires many of the same skills needed to win a battle. Such skillsinclude strategy, psychology, competition, strategic withdrawals, andyes, even luck. So it is not surprising that throughout this book you willcome across candlestick terms that are based on battlefield analogies.There are "night and morning.attacks", the "advancing three soldierspattern", "counter attack lines", the "gravestone", and so on.The relative stability engendered by the centralized Japanese feudalsystem lead by Tokugawa offered new opportunities. The agrarian econ-omy grew, but, more importantly, there was expansion and ease indomestic trade. By the 17th century, a national market had evolved toreplace the system of local and isolated markets. This concept of a cen-tralized marketplace was to indirectly lead to the development of techni-cal analysis in Japan.Hideyoshi Toyotomi regarded Osaka as Japans capital and encour-aged its growth as a commercial center. Osakas easy access to the sea,at a time where land travel was slow, dangerous, and costly, made it anational depot for assembling and disbursing supplies. It evolved intoJapans greatest city of commerce and finance. Its wealth and vast store-houses of supplies provided Osaka with the appellation the "Kitchen ofJapan." Osaka contributed much to price stability by smoothing outregional differences in supply. In Osaka, life was permeated by thedesire for profit (as opposed to other cities in which money making wasdespised). The social system at that time was composed of four classes.In descending order they were the Soldier, the Farmer, the Artisan, andthe Merchant. It took until the 1701)sfor merchants to break down thesocial barrier. Even today the traditional greeting in Osaka is "Mokari-makka" which means, "are you making a profit?".In Osaka, Yodoya Keian became a war merchant for Hideyoshi (oneof the three great military unifiers). Yodoya had extraordinary abilities intransporting, distributing, and setting the price of rice. Yodoyals frontyard became so important that the first rice exchange developed there.He became very wealthy-as it turned out, too wealthy. In 1705, theBakufu (the military government led by the Shogun) confiscated hisentire fortune on the charge that he was living in luxury not befitting his
  28. 28. A Historical Background 15social rank. The Bakufu was apprehensive about the increasing amountof power acquired by certain merchants. In 1642, certain officials andmerchants tried to corner the rice market. The punishment was severe:their children were executed, the merchants were exiled, and theirwealth was confiscated.The rice market that originally developed in Yodoyas yard was insti-tutionalized when the Dojima Rice Exchange was set up in the late 1600sin Osaka. The merchants at the Exchange graded the rice and bargainedto set its price. Up until 1710, the Exchange dealt in actual rice. After1710, the Rice Exchange began to issue and accept rice warehousereceipts. These warehouse receipts were called rice coupons. These ricereceipts became the first futures contracts ever traded.Rice brokerage became the foundation of Osakas prosperity. Therewere more than 1,300 rice dealers. Since there was no currency standard(the prior attempts at hard currency failed due to the debasing of thecoins), rice became the defacto medium of exchange. A daimyo needingmoney would send his surplus rice to Osaka where it would be placedin a warehouse in his name. He would be given a coupon as a receiptfor this rice. He could sell this rice coupon whenever he pleased. Giventhe financial problems of many daimyos, they would also often sell ricecoupons against their next rice tax delivery (taxes to the daimyo werepaid in rice-usually 40% to 60% of the rice farmers crop). Sometimesthe rice crop of several years hence was mortgaged.These rice coupons were actively traded. The rice coupons soldagainst future rice deliveries became the worlds first futures contracts.The Dojima Rice Exchange, where these coupons traded, became theworlds first futures exchange. Rice coupons were also called "emptyrice" coupons (that is, rice that was not in physical possession). To giveyou an idea of the popularity of rice futures trading, consider this: In1749, there were a total of 110,000 bales (rice used to trade in bales) ofempty-rice coupons traded in Osaka. Yet, throughout all of Japan therewere only 30,000 bales of ricea2Into this background steps Homma, called "god of the markets.""Munehisa Homma was born in 1724 into a wealthy family. The Hommafamily was considered so wealthy that there was a saying at that time,"I will never become a Homma, but I would settle to be a local lord."When Homma was given control of his familybusiness in 1750, he begantrading at his local rice exchange in the port city of Sakata. Sakata was acollections and distribution area for rice. Since Homma came fromSakata, you will frequently come across the expression "Sakatas Rules"in Japanese candlestick literature. These refer to Homma.
  29. 29. 16 A Historical BackgroundWhen Munehisa Hommas father died, Munehisa was placed incharge of managing the familys assets. This was in spite of the fact thathe was the youngest son. (It was usually the eldest son who inheritedthe power during that era.) This was probably because of Munehisasmarket savvy. With this money, Homma went to Japans largest riceexchange, the Dojima Rice Exchange in Osaka, and began trading ricefutures.Hommas family had a huge rice farming estate. Their power meantthat information about the rice market was usually available to them. Inaddition, Homma kept records of yearly weather conditions. In order tolearn about the psychology of investors, Homma analyzed rice pricesgoing back to the time when the rice exchange was in Yodoyas yard.Homma also set up his own communications system. At prearrangedtimes he placed men on rooftops to send signals by flags. These menstretched the distance from Osaka to.Sakata.After dominating the Osaka markets, Homma went to trade in theregional exchange at Edo (now called Tokyo). He used his insights toamass a huge fortune. It was said he had 100 consecutive winningtrades.His prestige was such that there was the following folk song fromEdo: "When it is sunny in Sakata (Hommas town), it is cloudy inDojima (the Dojima Rice Exchange in Osaka) and rainy at Kuramae (theKuramae exchange in Edo)." In other words when there is a good ricecrop in Sakata, rice prices fall on the Dojima Rice Exchange and collapsein Edo. This song reflects the Hommas sway over the rice market.In later years Homma became a financial consultant to the govern-ment and was given the honored title of samurai. He died in 1803.Hommas books about the markets (Sakata Senho and Soba Sani No Den)were said to have been written in the 1700s. His trading principles, asapplied to the rice markets, evolved into the candlestick methodologycurrently used in Japan.
  30. 30. - -A Historical Background 17NOTESHis first name is sometimes translated as Sokyu and his last name is sometimes translated asHonma. This gives you an idea of the difficulty of translating Japanese into English. The sameJapanese symbols for Hommas first name, depending on the translator, can be Sokyu or Mune-hisa. His last name, again depending on the translator, can be either Homma or Honma. I chosethe English translation of Hommas name as used by the Nippon Technical Analysts Association.Hirschmeier, Johannes and Yui, Tsunehiko. The Development of JapaneseBusiness 1600-1973, Cam-bridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1975, p. 31.
  31. 31. PART ITHE BASICS"Even a Thousand Mile Journey Begins with the First Step"
  32. 32. CHAPTER 3CONSTRUCTINGTHE CANDLESTICKSwwm < T A T W I ~"Without Oars You Cannot Cross in a Boat"A comparison between the visual differences of a bar chart and a can-dlestick chart is easy to illustrate. Exhibit 3.1 is the familiar Western barchart. Exhibit 3.2 is a candlestick chart of the same price information asthat in the bar chart. On the candlestick chart, prices seem to jump offthe page presenting a stereoscopic view of the market as it pushes theflat, two-dimensional bar chart into three dimensions. In this respect,candlecharts are visually exciting.DRAWING THE CANDLESTICK LINESSince candlestick charts are new to most Western technicians, the mostcommon Western chart, the bar chart, is used throughout this chapter asan instructional tool for learning how to draw the candlestick lines.Drawing the daily bar chart line requires open, high, low, and close.The vertical line on a bar chart depicts the high and low of the session.The horizontal line to the left of the vertical line is the opening price. Thehorizontal line to the right of the vertical line is the close.Exhibit 3.3 shows how the same data would be used to construct abar chart and a candlestick chart. Although the daily bar chart lines andcandlestick chart lines use the same data, it is easy to see that they aredrawn differently. The thick part of the candlestick line is called the real
  33. 33. 22 The Basics8 :13 CCHO DAILY BAR 0 1989 CQG INC.o=-H= . . . . . . .L=-L= . . .. . . .b=_......................................................................................................................................... .: 1:. ........................................ . . I t . .- .............................. .......- 2/27/90,, ...o=ti= . .-L=C= Dec Jan Feb 1127 14 111 118 126 1112 18 115 122 129 15 112 120 126EXHIBIT 3.1. Cocoa-March, 1990, Daily Bar ChartCCHO DAILY BAR @ 1989 CQG INC.EXHIBIT 3.2. Cocoa-March, 1990, Daily Candlestick Chart
  34. 34. Constructing the Candlesticks 23Time Period Open High Low Close1 20 30 15 252 25 25 10 153 30 35 15 204 45 50 35 405 25 40 25 351 2 3 4 5Time PeriodCandlestick ChartI1 2 3 4 5Time PeriodEXHIBIT 3.3 Bar Chart and Candlestick Chartbody. It represents the range between that sessions opening and closing.When the real body is black (i.e., filled in) it means the close of the ses-sion was lower than the open. If the real body is white (i.e., empty), itmeans the close was higher than the open.The thin lines above and below the real body are the shadows. Theseshadows represent the sessions price extremes. The shadow above thereal body is called the upper shadow and the shadow under the real bodyis known as the lower shadow. Accordingly, the peak of the upper shadowis the high of the session and the bottom of the lower shadow is the lowof the session. It is easy to see why these are named candlestick chartssince the individual lines often look like candles and their wicks. If acandlestick line has no upper shadow it is said to have a shaven head. Acandlestick line with no lower shadow has a shaven bottom. To the Japa-nese, the real body is the essential price movement. The shadows areusually considered as extraneous price fluctuations.Exhibits 3.4 through 3.7 demonstrate some common candlestick lines.Exhibit 3.4 reveals a long black candlestick reflecting a bearish period inwhich the market opened near its high and closed near its low. Exhibit3.5 shows the opposite of a long black body and, thus, represents a bull-ish period. Prices had a wide range and the market opened near the lowand closed near the high of the session. Exhibit 3.6 shows candlestickshaving small real bodies and, as such, they represent a tug of warbetween the bulls and the bears. They are called spinning tops and areneutral in lateral trading bands. As shown later in this book (in the sec-
  35. 35. 24 The BasicsEXHIBIT 3.4. Black Candlestick EXHIBIT 3.5. White CandlestickHigh 1_,HighJCloseClose-- -OpenLOWL o w,------EXHIBIT 3.6. Spinning Tops EXHIBIT 3.7. Doji Examplestions on stars and harami patterns), these spinning tops do becomeimportant when part of certain formations. The spinning top can beeither white or black. The lines illustrated in Exhibit 3.6 have small upperand lower shadows, but the size of the shadows are not important. It isthe diminutive size of the real body that makes this a spinning top.Exhibit 3.7 reveals no real bodies. Instead, they have horizontal lines.These are examples of what are termed doji lines.A doji occurs when the open and close for that session are the sameor very close to being the same (e.g., two- or three-thirty-seconds inbonds, a Yi cent in grains, and so on.). The lengths of the shadows canvary. Doji are so important that an entire chapter is devoted to them (seeChapter 8 The Magic Doji).Candlestick charts can also be drawn more colorfully by using theclassical Japanese candlestick chart colors of red and black. Red can beused instead of the white candlestick. (This could be especially useful forcomputer displays of the candlestick charts.) The obvious problem withthis color scheme is that photo copies and most computer printouts willnot be useful since all the real bodies would come out as black.Some readers may have heard the expression yin and yang lines.These are the Chinese terms for the candlestick lines. The yin line isanother name for the black candlestick and the yang line is equivalent tothe white candlestick. In Japan, a black candlestick is called in-sen (blackline) and the white candlestick is called yo-sen (white line).The Japanese place great emphasis on the relationship between theopen and close because they are the two most emotionally charged
  36. 36. Constructing the Candlesticks 25points of the trading day. The Japanese have a proverb that says, "thefirst hour of the morning is the rudder of the day."So is the opening therudder for the trading session. It furnishes the first clue about that daysdirection. It is a time when all the news and rumors from overnight arefiltered and then joined into one point in time.The more anxious the trader, the earlier he wants to trade. Therefore,on the open, shorts may be scrambling for cover, potential longs maywant to emphatically buy, hedgers may need to take a new or get out ofan old position, and so forth.After the flurry of activity on the open, potential buyers and sellershave a benchmark from which they can expect buying and selling. Thereare frequent analogies to trading the market and fighting a battle. In thissense, the open provides an early view of the battlefield and a provi-sional indication of friendly and opposing troops. At times, large tradersmay try to move the market on the open by executing a large buy or sellorder. Japanese call this a morning attack. Notice that this is another mil-itary analogy. The Japanese use many such military comparisons as weshall see throughout the book.CANDLESTICK TERMINOLOGY AND MARKET EMOTIONTechnicals are the only way to measure the emotional component of the :market. The names of the Japanese candlestick charts make this fact evi- :dent. These names are a colorful mechanism used to describe the emo- itional health of the market at the time these patterns are formed. After :hearing the expressions "hanging man" or "dark-cloud cover," would you ithink the market is in an emotionally healthy state-of course not! These :are both bearish patterns and their names clearly convey the unhealthy :state of the market.While the emotional condition of the market may not be healthy at thetime these patterns form, it does not preclude the possibility that the mar- :ket will become healthy again. The point is that at the appearance of, say, ia dark-cloud cover, longs should take defensive measures or, depending :on the general trend and other factors, new short sales could be initiated. iThere are many new patterns and ideas in this book, but the descrip-tive names employed by the Japanese not only make candlestick charting :fun, but easier to remember if the patterns are bullish or bearish. For iexample, in Chapter 5 you will learn about the "evening star" and the :"morning star." Without knowing what these patterns look like or what :they imply for the market, just by hearing their names which do you think iis bullish and which is bearish? Of course, the evening star which comes :out before darkness sets in, sounds like the bearish signal-and so it is! iThe morning star, then, is bullish since the morning star appears just :before sunrise.
  37. 37. 26 The BasicsThe other pivotal price point is the close. Margin calls in the futuresmarkets are based on the close. We can thus expect heavy emotionalinvolvement into how the market closes. The close is also a pivotal pricepoint for many technicians. They may wait for a close to confirm a break-out from a significant chart point. Many computer trading systems (forexample, moving average systems) are based on closes. If a large buy orsell order is pushed into the market at, or near, the close, with theintention of affecting the close, the Japanese call this action a night attack.Exhibits 3.4 to 3.7 illuminate how the relationship between a periodsopen, high, low, and close alters the look of the individual candlestickline. Now let us turn our attention to how the candlestick lines, alone orin combination, provide clues about market direction.
  38. 38. CHAPTER 4REVERSAL PATTERNS--%%ImJ"Darkness Lies One Inch Ahead"Technicians watch for price clues that can alert them to a shift in mar-ket psychology and trend. Reversal patterns are these technical clues.Western reversal indicators include double tops and bottoms, reversaldays, head and shoulders, and island tops and bottoms.Yet the term "reversal pattern" is somewhat of a misnomer. Hearingthat term may lead you to think of an old trend ending abruptly andthen reversing to a new trend. This rarely happens. Trend reversals usu-ally occur slowly, in stages, as the underlying psychology shifts gears.A trend reversal signal implies that the prior trend is likely to change,but not necessarily reverse. This is very important to understand. Com-pare an uptrend to a car traveling forward at 30 m.p.h. The cars redbrake lights go on and the car stops. The brake light was the reversalindicator showing that the prior trend (that is, the car moving forward)was about to end. But now that the car is stationary will the driver thendecide to put the car in reverse? Will he remained stopped? Will hedecide to go forward again? Without more clues we do not know.Exhibits 4.1 through 4.3 are some examples of what can happen aftera top reversal signal appears. The prior uptrend, for instance, could con-vert into a period of sideways price action. Then a new and oppositetrend lower could start. (See Exhibit 4.1.) Exhibit 4.2 shows how an olduptrend can resume. Exhibit 4.3 illustrates how an uptrend can abruptlyreverse into a downtrend.It is prudent to think of reversal patterns as trend change patterns. Iwas tempted to use the term "trend change patterns" instead of "rever-sal patterns" in this book. However, to keep consistent with other tech-
  39. 39. 28 The BasicsEXHIBIT 4.1. Top Reversal EXHIBIT 4.2. Top Reversal EXHIBIT 4.3. Top Reversalnical analysis literature, I decided to use the term reversal patterns.Remember that when I say "reversal pattern" it means only that theprior trend should change but not necessarily reverse.Recognizing the emergence of reversal patterns can be a valuableskill. Successful trading entails having both the trend and probability onyour side. The reversal indicators are the markets way of providing aroad sign, such as "Caution-Trend in Process of Change." In otherwords, the markets psychology is in transformation. You should adjustyour trading style to reflect the new market environment. There aremany ways to trade in and out of positions with reversal indicators. Weshall discuss them throughout the book.An important principle is to place a new position (based on a rever-sal signal) only if that signal is in the direction of the major trend. Let ussay, for example, that in a bull market, a top reversal pattern appears.This bearish signal would not warrant a short sale. This is because themajor trend is still up. It would, however, signal a liquidation of longs.If there was a prevailing downtrend, this same top reversal formationcould be used to place short sales.I have gone into detail about the subject of reversal patterns becausemost of the candlestick indicators are reversals. Now, let us turn ourattention to the first group of these candlestick reversal indicators, thehammer and hanging-man lines.HAMMER AND HANGING-MAN LINESExhibit 4.4 shows candlesticks with long lower shadows and small realbodies. The real bodies are near th.e top of the daily range. The varietyof candlestick lines shown in the exhibit are fascinatingin that either linecan be bullish or bearish depending on where they appear in a trend. Ifeither of these lines emerges during a downtrend it is a signal that thedowntrend should end. In such a scenario, this line is labeled a hammer,
  40. 40. Reversal Patterns 291 TII I ,T<;,hite or BlackThese Lines Can Be Either BullishPWhite orIIor Bearish BlackEXHIBIT 4.4. Hammer and EXHIBIT 4.5. Hammer EXHIBIT 4.6. HangingHanging Man Candlesticks Manas in "the market is hammering out" a base. See Exhibit 4.5. Interest-ingly, the actual Japanese word for this line is takuri. This word meanssomething to the affect of "trying to gauge the depth of the water byfeeling for its bottom."If either of the lines in Exhibit 4.4 emerge after a rally it tells you thatthe prior move may be ending. Such a line is ominously called a hangingman (see Exhibit 4.6). The name hanging man is derived from the factthat it looks like a hanging man with dangling legs.It may seem unusual that the same candlestick line can be both bull-ish and bearish. Yet, for those familiar with Western island tops andisland bottoms you will recognize that the identical idea applies here.The island formation is either bullish or bearish depending on where itis in a trend. An island after a prolonged uptrend is bearish, while thesame island pattern after a downtrend is bullish.The hammer and hanging man can be recognized by three criteria:1. The real body is at the upper end of the trading range. The color ofthe real body is not important.2. A long lower shadow should be twice the height of the real body3. It should have no, or a very short, upper shadow.The longer the lower shadow, the shorter the upper shadow and thesmaller the real body the more meaningful the bullish hammer or bear-ish hanging man. Although the real body of the hammer or hangingman can be white or black, it is slightly more bullish if the real body ofthe hammer is white, and slightly more bearish if the real body of thehanging man is black. If a hammer has a white real body it means themarket sold off sharply during the session and then bounced back toclose at, or near, the sessions high. This could have bullish ramifica-tions. If a hanging man has a black real body, it shows that the closecould not get back to the opening price level. This could have potentiallybearish implications.It is especially important that you wait for bearish confirmation with
  41. 41. 30 The Basicsthe hanging man. The logic for this has to do with how the hanging-manline is generated. Usually in this kind of scenario the market is full ofbullish energy. Then the hanging man appears. On the hanging-manday, the market opens at or near the highs, then sharply sells off, andthen rallies to close at or near the highs. This might not be the type ofprice action that would let you think the hanging man could be a topreversal. But this type of price action now shows once the market startsto sell off, it has become vulnerable to a fast break.If the market opens lower the next day, those who bought on the openor close of the hanging-man day are now left "hanging" with a losingposition. Thus, the general principle for the hanging man; the greater thedown gap between the real body of the hanging-man day and the open-ing the next day the more likely the hanging man will be a top. Anotherbearish verification could be a black real body session with a lower closethan the hanging-man sessions close.Exhibit 4.7 is an excellent example of how the same line can be bear-ish (as in the hanging-man line on July 3) or bullish (the hammer on July23). Although both the hanging man and hammer in this example haveblack bodies, the color of the real body is not of major importance.Exhibit 4.8 shows another case of the dual nature of these lines.There is a bearish hanging man in mid-April that signaled the end of the7:39 BOZO DAILY BAR @ 1990 CQG INC.Or. . .-HangingMan240230fHammer. . .220L=C= .Jun .Jul 4ug 117 114 121 128 14 111 118 125 I2 19 116 123 130 16EXHIBIT 4.7. Soybean Oil-December, 1990, Daily (Hanging Man and Hammer)
  42. 42. Reversal Patterns 3113:26 OJIS DAILY BAR @ 1989 CQG INC.0127122H=2?164. L=26743L=26743v Hanging-A=. .:3?6.....................I.. .....................................:.............................................................HangingMan. . . . . ........... 27000................ 26000. . .EXHIBIT 4.8. Dow Jones Industrials-1990, Daily (Hanging Man and Hammer)L.". 4/20/9o...................................................................................................................................,0=27122, H=27164L=26743C-26743 Feb Mar Aprrally which had started with the bullish hammer on April 2. A variationof a hanging man emerged in mid-March. Its lower shadow was long,but not twice the height of the real body. Yet the other criteria (a realbody at the upper end of the daily range and almost no upper shadow)were met. It was also confirmed by a lower close the next day. This line,although not an ideal hanging man, did signal the end of the upturnwhich started a month earlier. Candlestick charting techniques, likeother charting or pattern recognition techniques, have guidelines. But,they are not rigid rules.As discussed above, there are certain aspects that increase the impor-tance of hanging-man and hammer lines. But, as shown in the hangingman of mid-March, a long lower shadow may not have to be twice theheight of the real body in order to give a reversal signal. The longer thelower shadow, the more perfect the pattern.Exhibit 4.9 shows a series of bullish hammers numbered 1 to 4 (ham-mer 2 is considered a hammer in spite of its minute upper shadow). Theinteresting feature of this chart is the buy signal given early in 1990. Newlows appeared at hammers 3 and 4 as prices moved under the July lowsat hammer 2. Yet, there was no continuation to the downside. The bearshad their chance to run with the ball. They fumbled. The two bullish-25000115 122 129 15 112 120 126 15 112 119 126 12 19 116
  43. 43. 32 The BasicsEXHIBIT 4.9. Copper-Weekly (Hammers)hammers (3 and 4) show the bulls regained control. Hammer 3 was notan ideal hammer since the lower shadow was not twice the height of thereal body. This line did reflect, however, the failure of the bears tomaintain new lows. The following weeks hammer reinforced the conclu-sion that a bottom reversal was likely to occur.In Exhibit 4.10 hammers 1 and 3 are bottoms. Hammer 2 signaled theend of the prior downtrend as the trend shifted from down to neutral.Hammer 4 did not work. This hammer line brings out an importantpoint about hammers (or any of the other patterns I discuss). Theyshould be viewed in the context of the prior price action. In this context,look at hammer 4. The day before this hammer, the market formed anextremely bearish candlestick line. It was a long, black day with a shavenhead and a shaven bottom (that is, it opened on its high and closed onits low). This manifested strong downside momentum. Hammer 4 alsopunctured the old support level of January 24. Considering the afore-mentioned bearish factors, it would be prudent to wait for confirmationthat the bulls were in charge again before acting on hammer 4. Forexample, a white candlestick which closed higher than the close of ham-mer 4 might have been viewed as a confirmation.Drawing the intra-day chart using candlesticks shows the high, low,open, and close of the session (see Exhibit 4.11). For example, an hourly
  44. 44. - -Reversal Patterns 33EXHIBIT 4.10. Lumber-May, 1990, Daily (Hammers)10:27 LBKO DAILY BAR @ 1989 CQG INC.O=19760.H=19930 , . . . . . .. L-19760-L=19890B , . . . . . .A= +170- 20500. .. . . . .. .. ......... .............................. ..........- 20000. .. . . . . . . .. . . . .Hammer 2 . .-. . . Hammer 4. . .. . .. .. . . . .: 4/ 5/90.,.....................................:.............................................................................................,-0=19760-H=19930 . . . . . .L=19760 C=198801 Feb Mar Aprl9OOO13:53 CLMO 60 MINUTE BAR @ 1989 CQG INC..O=1900 .H= 1905 .L= 1853 .-L= 18824A= -5 :2000-.............................................. .- 1900......... ......................... ........... ......... . . . . . . . ..............1 : : 1.1. 18001 4/2013:45 1 : /.rn 1112 18 115 122 129 15 112 120 126 15 112 119 126 12O= 1890 . Hammer .H= 1895-;=:::: .:...........:...........:...........:. . . . . . .. .. . . . .. . . . . .1. . . . . . . .1. . .. . . . .1. . . . . . . . 1700rn 1 4/ 9 1 4/16EXHIBIT 4.11. Crude Oil-June, 1990, Intra-day (Hammer)
  45. 45. 34 The Basicssession would have a candlestick line that uses the opening and close forthat hour in order to determine the real body. The high and low for thathour would be used for the upper and lower shadows. By lookingclosely at this chart, one can see that a hammer formed during the firsthour on April11. Like hammer 4 in Exhibit 4.10, prices gapped lower butthe white candlestick which followed closed higher. This helped to con-firm a bottom.The second hourly line on April 12, although in the shape of a ham-mer, was not a true hammer. A hammer is a bottom reversal pattern.One of the criterion for a hammer is that there should be a downtrend(even a minor one) in order for the hammer to reverse that trend. Thisline is not a hanging man either since a hanging man should appear afteran uptrend. In this case, if this line arose near the highs of the priorblack candlestick session, it would have been considered a hanging man.Exhibit 4.12 shows a hammer in early April that successfully calledthe end of the major decline which had began months earlier. The longlower shadow, (many times the height of the real body) a small realbody, and no upper shadow made this a classic hammer.Exhibit 4.13 shows a classic hanging-man pattern. New highs weremade for the move via an opening gap on the hanging-man day. TheL= . . . . . .:c= . . Mar .Apr "May .&,,. Jul . Aug12915 11211912615 112I1912612 19 11612313017 11412112814 lll11812512 19 116123130167:33 NKIC DAILY BAR @ 1990 CQG INC.EXHIBIT 4.12. Nikkei-1990, Daily (Hammer). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .:0=27657., H=28521-L=27572. . . . I . . . . : . . . ,: . . . . 1. . . . : . . . . 1 .L=A=-..................................................................................................................................................... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7-40000
  46. 46. Reversal Patterns 35Oct Nov Dec Jan ISource: Copyright 1990 Commod~tyTrend Service"EXHIBIT 4.13. Silver-May 1990,Daily (Hanging Man)market then gaps lower leaving all those new longs, who bought on thehanging mans open or close, left "hanging" with a losing position.In Exhibit 4.14 we see that the rally, which began in early February,terminated with the arrival of two consecutive hanging-man lines. Theimportance of bearish confirmation after the hanging-man line isreflected in this chart. One method of bearish confirmation would be forthe next days open to be under the hanging mans real body. Note thatafter the appearance of the first hanging man, the market opened higher.However, after the second hanging man, when the market openedunder the hanging mans real body, the market backed off.Exhibit 4.15 illustrates that a black real body day, with a lower closeafter a hanging-man day, can be another method of bearish confirma-tion. Lines 1, 2, and 3 were a series of hanging-man lines. Lack of bear-ish confirmation after lines 1 and 2 meant the uptrend was still in force.
  47. 47. 36 The BasicsEXHIBIT 4.14. Cocoa-May 1990, Daily (Hanging Man)- " . 2/27/90"" ..................................................................................................................................--O= 1016 . . . . .. .H= 1017L= 1003-C= 1005 Dec Jcm FebEXHIBIT 4.15. Dollar Index-Weekly (Hanging Man)900127 14 111 118 126 1112 18 115 122 129 15 112 120 126
  48. 48. Reversal Patterns 37Observe hanging man 3. The black candlestick which followed pro-vided the bearish confirmation of this hanging man line. Although themarket opened about unchanged after hanging man 3, by the time of itsclose, just about anyone who bought on the opening or closing of hang-ing man 3 was "hanging" in a losing trade. (In this case, the selloff onthe long black candlestick session was so severe that anyone who boughton the hanging-man day-not just those who bought on the open andclose-were left stranded in a losing position.)Exhibit 4.16 shows an extraordinary advance in the orange juice mar-ket from late 1989 into early 1990. Observe where this rally stopped. Itstopped at the hanging man made in the third week of 1990. This chartillustrates the point that a reversal pattern does not mean that prices willreverse, as we discussed in Chapter 3. A reversal indicator implies thatthe prior trend should end. That is exactly what happened here. Afterthe appearance of the hanging-man reversal pattern, the prior uptrendended with the new trend moving sideways.Another hanging man appeared in July. This time prices quicklyreversed from up to down. But, as we have discussed previously, thisscenario should not always be expected with a top trend reversal.Exhibit 4.17illustrates a classic hanging-man pattern in May. It shows7:43 OJ WEEKLY BQR 0 1990 CQG INC.o=HangingManA=1 Hanging -20001EXHIBIT 4.16. Orange Juice-Weekly (Hanging Man)-
  49. 49. 38 The Basics30 13APR 27 1l M A Y 25Source: Bloomberg L.P.EXHIBIT 4.17. American Airlines-1989, Daily (Hanging Man)a very small real body, no upper shadow, and a long lower shadow. Thenext days black real body confirmed this hanging man and indicated atime to vacate longs. (Note the bullish hammer in early April.)ENGULFING PATTERNThe hammer and hanging man are individual candlestick lines. As pre-viously discussed, they can send important signals about the marketshealth. Most candlestick signals, however, are based on combinations ofindividual candlestick lines. The engulfing pattern is the first of thesemultiple candlestick line patterns. The engulfing pattern is a major rever-sal signal with two opposite color real bodies composing this pattern.Exhibit 4.18 shows a bullish engulfing pattern.The market is in a down-trend, then a white bullish real body wraps around, or engulfs, the priorperiods black real body. This shows buying pressure has overwhelmedselling pressure. Exhibit 4.19 illustrates a bearish engulfing pattern. Herethe market is trending higher. The white real body engulfed by a blackbody is the signal for a top reversal. This shows the bears have takenover from the bulls.There are three criteria for an engulfing pattern:1. The market has to be in a clearly definable uptrend or downtrend,even if the trend is short term.
  50. 50. Reversal Patterns 39EXHIBIT 4.18. Bullish Engulfing Pattern EXHIBIT 4.19. Bearish Engulfing Pattern2. Two candlesticks comprise the engulfing pattern. The second realbody must engulf the prior real body (it need not engulf the shad-ows).3. The second real body of the engulfing pattern should be the oppositecolor of the first real body. (The exception to this rule is if the first realbody of the engulfing pattern is so small it is almost a doji (or is adoji). Thus, after an extended downtrend, a tiny white real bodyengulfed by a very large white real body could be a bottom reversal.In an uptrend, a minute black real body enveloped by a very largeblack real body could be a bearish reversal pattern).The closest analogy to the Japanese candlestick engulfing pattern isthe Western reversal day. A Western reversal day occurs when, during anuptrend (or downtrend), a new high (or low) is made with prices closingunder (or above) the prior days close. You will discover that the engulf-ing pattern may give reversal signals not available with the Westernreversal day. This may allow you to get a jump on those who use tradi-tional reversal days as a reversal signal. This is probed in Exhibits 4.21,4.22, and 4.23.Some factors that would increase the likelihood that an engulfingpattern would be an important reversal indicator would be:1. If the first day of the engulfing pattern has a very small real body andthe second day has a very long real body. This would reflect a dissi-pation of the prior trends force and then an increase in force behindthe new move.2. If the engulfing pattern appears after a protracted or very fast move.A protracted trend increases the chance that potential buyers arealready long. In this instance, there may be less of a supply of newlongs in order to keep the market moving up. A fast move makes themarket overextended and vulnerable to profit taking.3. If there is heavy volume on the second real body of the engulfingpattern. This could be a blow off (volume using candlestick charts isdiscussed in Chapter 15).
  51. 51. 40 The BasicsEXHIBIT 4.20. Swiss Franc-Weekly (Bullishand Bearish Engulfing Patterns)4. If the second day of the engulfing pattern engulfs more than one realbody.Exhibit 4.20 shows that the weeks of May 15 and May 22 formed abullish engulfing pattern. During the last two weeks of July, a bearishengulfing pattern emerged. Septembers bullish engulfing pattern wasthe bottom of the selloff prior to the major rally.In Exhibit 4.21 a monthly crude oil chart with both the bullish andbearish engulfing patterns can be seen. In late 1985, a precipitous $20decline began. The third and fourth month of 1986 showed the two can-dlestick lines of the bullish engulfing pattern. It signaled an end to thisdowntrend. The rally that began with this bullish engulfing pattern con-cluded with the bearish engulfing pattern in mid-1987. The small bullishengulfing pattern in February and March of 1988 terminated the down-trend that started with the mid-1987 bearish engulfing pattern. After thisbullish engulfing pattern, the trend went from down to sideways for fivemonths.The black candlestick of February 1990 came within 8 ticks of engulf-ing the January 1990 white candlestick. Consequently, this was not aperfect bearish engulfing pattern but, with candlesticks, as with other
  52. 52. Reversal Patterns 41EXHIBIT 4.21. Crude Oil-Monthly (Bullish and Bearish Engulfing Pattern). 9108 CL MONTHLY BAR @ 1989 CQG INC.charting techniques, there should be some latitude allowed. It is safer toview this as a bearish engulfing pattern with all its inherently bearishimplications than to ignore that possibility just because of 8 ticks. Aswith all charting techniques, there is always room for subjectivity.The bearish engulfing patterns in 1987 and in 1990 convey an advan-tage provided by the engulfing pattern-it may give a reversal signal notavailable using the criteria for a reversal day in Western technicals. Arule for the Western top reversal day (or, in this case, reversal month) isthat a new high has to be made for the move. New highs for the movewere not made by the black real body periods in the bearish engulfingpatterns. Thus, using the criteria for the Western reversal they would notbe recognized as reversal patterns in the United States. Yet, they werereversals with the candlestick techniques.Exhibit 4.22 shows another instance where the candlestick charts mayallow one to get a jump on regular bar charting tools. Observe the priceaction on July 7 and 8. Here again, since there was no new high made,there was no sign of a top reversal by using the traditional Westernreversal day as a gauge. Yet, with candlesticks, there is a bearish rever-sal signal, namely the bearish engulfing pattern, does show itself.The two candlestick lines 1 and 2 in early June look like a bullish-O= 1620 .........................................................................................................................................,-. H= 1620 .. L= 1595 ., L= 1600vA= +6 :. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4000300,Bearish EngulfingPatterns. . . . . . / . . :..... 2000. . 1000 : Bullish Engulfing Patterns : 1
  53. 53. 42 The BasicsSource: ~ o r n p u ~ r a c ~ ~EXHIBIT 4.22. Platinum-October, 1989, Daily.(Bearish Engulfing Pattern)engulfing pattern. However, the bullish engulfing pattern is a bottomtrend reversal indicator. This means it must appear after a downtrend (orsometimes at the bottom of a lateral band). In early June, when the bull-ish engulfing pattern appeared it did not warrant action since it did notappear in a downtrend.Exhibit 4.23 is a series of bearish engulfing patterns. Pattern 1dragged the market into a multi-month lateral band from its prioruptrend. Engulfing pattern 2 only called a temporary respite to the rally.Bearish engulfing patterns 3, 4, and 5 all gave reversal signals that werenot available with Western technical techniques (that is, since no newhighs were made for the move they were not considered reversalweeks).
  54. 54. Reversal Patterns 43,..............................................,...............:................... .....................+....................:...........,,................:...I Aor Jul Oct Jan AD^ JulSource: Copyright 1990 Commodity Trend ServiceeDARK-CLOUD COVEREXHIBIT 4.23.Soybeans-Weekly(BearishEngulfingPatterns)Our next reversal pattern is the dark-cloud cover (see Exhibit 4.24). It is atwo candlestick pattern that is a top reversal after a uptrend or, at times,at the top of a congestion band. The first day of this two candlestick pat-tern is a strong white real body. The second days price opens above the
  55. 55. 44 The BasicsEXHIBIT 4.24. Dark-cloud Coverprior sessions high (that is, above the top of the upper shadow). How-ever, by the end of the second days session, the market closes near thelow of the day and well within the prior days white body. The greaterthe degree of penetration into the white real body the more likely a topwill occur. Some Japanese technicians require more than a 50% penetra-tion of the black sessions close into the white real body. If the blackcandlestick does not close below the halfway point of the white candle-stick it may be best to wait for more bearish confirmation following thedark cloud cover.The rationale behind this bearish pattern is readily explained. Themarket is in an uptrend. A strong white candlestick is followed by a gaphigher on the next sessions opening. Thus far, the bulls are in completecontrol. But then no continuation of the rally occurs! In fact, the marketcloses at or near the lows of the day moving well within the prior daysreal body. In such a scenario, the longs will have second thoughts abouttheir position. Those who were waiting for selling short now have abenchmark to place a stop-at the new high of the second day of thedark-cloud cover pattern.The following is a list of some factors that intensify the importance ofdark-cloud covers:1. The greater the degree of penetration of the black real bodys closeinto the prior white real body, the greater the chance for a top. If theblack real body covers the prior days entire white body, a bearishengulfing pattern would occur. The dark-cloud covers black realbody only gets partially into the white body. Think of the dark-cloudcover as a partial solar eclipse blocking out part of the sun (that is,covers only part of the prior white body). The bearish engulfing pat-tern can be viewed as a total solar eclipse blocking out the entire sun(that is, covers the entire white body). A bearish engulfing pattern,consequently, is a more meaningful top reversal. If a long, white realbody closes above the highs of the dark-cloud cover, or the bearishengulfing pattern, it could presage another rally.
  56. 56. Reversal Patterns 452. During a prolonged uptrend, if there is a strong white day whichopens on its low (thatis, a shaven bottom) and closes on its high (thatis, a shaven head) and the next day reveals a long black real bodyday, opening on its high and closing on its low, then a shaven headand shaven bottom black day have occurred.3. If the second body (that is, the black body) of the dark-cloud coveropens above a major resistance level and then fails, it would provethe bulls were unable to take control of the market.4. If, on the opening of the second day there is very heavy volume, abuying blow off could have occurred. For example, heavy volume ata new opening high could mean that many new buyers have decidedto jump aboard ship. Then the market sells offs. It probably wont betoo long before this multitude of new longs (and old longs who haveridden the uptrend) realize that the ship they jumped onto is theTitanic. For futures traders, very high opening interest can be anotherwarning.Exhibit 4.25 demonstrates the difference between the dark-cloudcover and the bearish engulfing pattern. The two candlesticks in June1989 constitute a dark-cloud cover. A long, white real body is followedby a long, black real body. The black real body opened on a new highfor the move and then closed near its lows and well into the prior daysEXHIBIT 4.25. Municipal Bonds-Weekly(Dark-cloud Cover and Bearish EngulfingSource: Copyright 1990 Commodity Trend Service Pattern)
  57. 57. 46 The Basics3:26 CLNO DAILY BAR O 1989 CQG INC.I= 1855 .4= 1880 . Dark-cloud.r 1842 . ..= 1873~:h= +15 ............ ............ ............................................ . .. . . . .Dark-cloudCover 320015/ 4/9001 1855............................................................................................................-. .:. :. .- 1800........C= 1873 Feb Mar Apr MayI 129 I5 112 120 126 15 112 119 126 12 I9 116 123 130EXHIBIT 4.26. Crude Oil-July 1990, Daily (Dark-cloud Cover)white real body. The municipal bond market backed off after this topreversal appeared. The final coup de grace came a few weeks later whenthe bearish engulfing pattern materialized. We see how the dark-cloudcovers black real body covered only part of the prior white real body.The black real body of the bearish engulfing pattern enveloped the entireprevious white real body.In Exhibit 4.26 three dark-cloud covers can be seen. Other bearishsignals confirmed each of these patterns. Let us look at them on an indi-vidual basis.1. Dark-cloud cover 1. This is a variation on the ideal dark-cloud coverpattern. In this dark-cloud cover, the second days black real bodyopened at the prior days high instead of above it. It was still only awarning sign but it was viewed as a negative factor. This dark-cloudcover also signified a failed attempt by the bulls to take out resistanceat the mid-February highs.2. Dark-cloud cover 2. Besides this dark-cloud cover, there was anotherreason for caution at this $21 level. A technical axiom is that a priorsupport level, once broken, can convert to new resistance. That iswhat happened at $21. Note how the old $21 support, once breached
  58. 58. Reversal Patterns 47on March 9, converted to resistance. The failed rally attempt duringthe dark-cloud cover pattern during the first two days of April provedthis resistance. (Chapter 11 examines this concept of the interchange-ability of support and resistance.)3. Dark-cloud cover 3. This shows that there was also a failure at a resis-tance zone made during the late April highs.These are instances where the bearish dark-cloud cover coincidedwith resistance levels. This concept, where more than one technical indi-cator corroborates another, is important. It is the main focus of the sec-ond half of this book where the combination of candlestick techniqueswith other technical tools is discussed.Exhibit 4.27 shows that during the early part of March, dark-cloudcover 1 halted a two-week rally. A week-long correction ensued. Twomore dark-cloud covers formed in April. Dark-cloud cover 2 hinted thatthe prior sharp two-day rally was probably over. Dark-cloud cover 3, inmid-April, was especially bearish. Why did this dark-cloud cover turnout to be so negative? The reason has to do with the psychology of thispattern.As noted previously, the rationale behind the negative aspect of the8:15 SPMO DAILY BAR @ 1990 CQG IEIC.o=Cover 2 Dark-cloud ,. . . Dark-cloud .Cover 1................-3400C. .. . .I . .1EXHIBIT 4.27. S&P-June 1990 (Dark-cloud Covers)
  59. 59. 48, The Basics~ark-dloudA Cover.......................9FEBEXHIBIT 4.28. Bristol Myers-1990, Daily source: Bloomberg L.P.dark-cloud cover is the result of a new high on the open, with the mar-ket closing deeply into the prior white real body. What would happen,though, if, on the second day of the dark-cloud cover, the open pene-trates the highs not from days, or even weeks ago, but from months agoand then fails at these new highs? This would produce very negativeconnotations. This is the scenario that unfolded in April. The highestlevels in at least three months were touched on the black candlesticksession of dark-cloud cover 3. This high failed to hold and prices closedwell within the prior white real body.In Exhibit 4.28, we see that the price incline commencing February 10came to an abrupt halt with the mid-February dark-cloud cover.PIERCING PATTERNDuring many of my speaking engagements, after I have discussed thebearish dark-cloud cover pattern, its not too long before I am asked ifthere is an opposite formation. Yes, there is and it is called a piercingpattern. Just as a dark-cloud cover is a top reversal, its opposite, thepiercing pattern, is a bottom reversal (see Exhibit 4.29). It is composed oftwo candlesticks in a falling market. The first candlestick is a black realbody day and the second is a long, white real body day. This white dayopens sharply lower, under the low of the prior black day. Then prices
  60. 60. Reversal Patterns 49EXHIBIT 4.29. Piercing Patternpush higher, creating a relatively long, white real body that closes abovethe mid-point of the prior days black real body.The bullish piercing pattern is akin to the bullish engulfing pattern.In the bullish engulfing pattern the white real body engulfs the previousblack real body. With the bullish piercing pattern, the white real bodyonly pierces the prior black body. In the piercing pattern, the greater thedegree of penetration into the black real body, the more likely it will bea bottom reversal. An ideal piercing pattern will have a white real bodythat pushes more than halfway into the prior sessions black real body.If the market closes under the lows of the bullish engulfing pattern orthe piercing pattern by way of a long black candlestick, then anotherdownleg should resume.The psychology behind the piercing pattern is as follows: The marketis in a downtrend. The bearish black real body reinforces this view. Thenext day the market opens lower via a gap. The bears are watching themarket with contentment. Then the market surges toward the close,managing not only to close unchanged from the prior days close, butsharply above that level. The bears will be second guessing their posi-tion. Those who are looking to buy would say new lows could not holdand perhaps it is time to step in from the long side.The piercing pattern signal increases in importance based on thesame factors (1)through (4)as with the dark-cloud cover, but in reverse.(See previous section.) In the section on the dark-cloud cover, I men-tioned that although some Japanese traders like to see the black realbody close more that midway in the prior white candlestick, there issome flexibility to this rule. With the piercing pattern, there is less flexi-bility. The piercing patterns white candlestick should push more thanhalfway into the black candlesticks real body. The reason for less lati-tude with the bullish piercing pattern than with the bearish dark-cloudcover pattern is the fact that the Japanese have three other patternscalled the on-neck, the in-neck, and the thrusting pattern (see Exhibits 4.30to 4.32) that have the same basic formation as the piercing pattern, butwhich are viewed as bearish signals since the white real body gets lessthan halfway into the blacks real body.

×