8.
The Principle of Optimum Failure Rate Potential Information 0% 50% 100% Probability of Failure@cyetain
9.
Greater Asserted Greater Asserted Information Information Potential Information 0% 50% 100% Probability of Failure@cyetain
10.
Greater Asserted Greater Asserted Information Information Interesting Ideas Potential Information Pretty Pretty Sure Sure theory theory is right is wrong 0% 50% 100% Probability of Failure@cyetain
11.
Greater Asserted Greater Asserted Information Information Interesting Ideas Potential Information Uncomfortable Conﬁdent Pretty Pretty Sure Sure theory theory is right is wrong 0% 50% 100% Probability of Failure@cyetain
12.
Number of Samples The Competency Trap Experience of Failure@cyetain
13.
Potential Information 0% 50% 100% Probability of Failure@cyetain
14.
The Line of SURPRISE! Interesting Hidden Hidden Risk Ideas Value Potential Information Pretty Pretty Sure Sure theory theory is right is wrong 0% 50% 100% Probability of Failure@cyetain
15.
3 2 Interesting Hidden Hidden Risk Ideas Value Potential Information 1 Pretty Pretty Sure Sure theory theory is right is wrong 0% 50% 100% 1 During Customer Development Focus on Interesting Ideas Probability of Failure Before Scaling Validate Your "We Know This Assumptions" to 2 reduce risk of Failure Demand 3 After Customer Validation Run experiments to Validate Assumptions of Failure@cyetain
16.
Utilize Abduction & Scientific Method Just Say No to Xenophobia@cyetain
22.
Theories Opinions Hypothesizes Request More Information@cyetain
23.
•Based on your experiences, what would you do to solve this problem? This is your Hypothesis. •Identify What Needs to Be True if your Hypothesis is true. •Assert, Presume, Assume Truth •Imagine Experiments that would justify the Assumptions How Would I Validate myHow Would I understanding of this solve this problem? Problem?@cyetain
24.
I Assert that this I know this Interesting Ideas Potential Information Pretty Pretty Sure Sure theory theory is right is wrong 0% 50% 100% Probability of Failure I Presume Somebody knows this Interesting Ideas Potential Information Pretty Pretty Sure Sure theory theory I am going to Assume is right is wrong 0% 50% 100% this is true for my Probability of Failure Hypothesis to be true Interesting Ideas Potential Information Pretty Pretty Sure Sure theory theory is right is wrong 0% 50% 100% Probability of Failure@cyetain
25.
Rotate Pairs 2-3 Times Allow Time for Revision Between Rounds This is my Hypothesis, Challenge Assumptions and Assumptions & Experiments Experiments@cyetain
26.
This is my Hypothesis, Assumptions and Experiments@cyetain
27.
Multiple Smaller Experiments against Multiple Abductive Hypotheses instead of Single Large Experiment against Single Hypotheses@cyetain
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