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Spring 2010 Housing Briefing
 

Spring 2010 Housing Briefing

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Spring 2010 Housing Briefing...

Spring 2010 Housing Briefing
The Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook
by
John McClain, AICP, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy, George Mason University

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  • Open with this and then go into bullet points – We are local, we re in the community. We contribute, we give back., we care about greater washington, we care about you, and we want to succeed together. We want to do well by doing good. Whether it’s helping to shape regional policy through our involvement in the Greater Washington Board of Trade, Local Chambers of Commerce, Community Organizations, or serving on local non profit boards, your friends at Apex Home Loans are making a different LOCALLY. We are a DIRECT LENDER (caveat right now on fixed to 729750, arms by 4/1, and fha soon)
  • You may not know our name, but we have been around for a long time. Our loan officers are well supported with a 1:1 staff ratio and many carry the industry designations that are not easy to achieve. We are consistently called on by local and national media to provide expertise of mortgage topics and our blog is one of the highest rated in the industry. Bottom line, our industry expertise helps us serve your homebuyer clients better and insure they get the right mortgage and the service they deserve every time.
  • Why is being Independent important? Being independent allows us to provide the wide array of loan product you might find with a mortgage broker, but still bring to you the benefits of the financial backing you would find at a larger retail bank, all while maintaining control over the loan process. Independence means decisions are made by management and owners that are on site and understand the importance of your buyers closing on time……everytime.
  • John McClain is the Deputy Director of the Center for Regional Analysis and George Mason University. He has over 25 years of experience analyzing the Washington region. For fifteen years he was at the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments where he directed the planning and policy programs and economic and demographic forecasting programs for the Washington region. He helped establish and for several years directed the Cooperative Forecasting Program, which provided official forecasts for metropolitan and local planning programs in the region. He was a senior executive at the Greater Washington Board of Trade, where he directed policy and research programs for the region's business community. Professor McClain also directed economic and real estate research for the Northeast region of the U.S. for a major international commercial real estate company. He received a BS in Civil Engineering from Duke University and a Masters of Regional Planning from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. This is the 3 rd year that John has presented this data to our partners and we are very happy to have him with us once again. Please join me in welcoming Professor John McClain.
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Spring 2010 Housing Briefing Spring 2010 Housing Briefing Presentation Transcript

  • Local Experienced Independent Spring Housing Briefing
  • Local Apex Home Loans, Inc © 2010 3204 Tower Oaks Boulevard #400 Rockville, MD 20852 || www.apexhomeloans.com
    • Largest Independent Mortgage Banking Firm
    • Headquartered in Montgomery County
    • Licensed in DC, MD, VA
    • Decisions Made Locally
    • In house processing, underwriting, appraisal
    • management, doc draw, and funding
  • Apex Home Loans, Inc © 2010 3204 Tower Oaks Boulevard #400 Rockville, MD 20852 || www.apexhomeloans.com Experienced
    • Founded in 1998
    • Staff to originator ratio of 1:1
    • Loan originators all have 10+ years experience
    • Owners all have 15+ years experience
    • Consistently called on by local & national
    • media
  • Independent Apex Home Loans, Inc © 2010 3204 Tower Oaks Boulevard #400 Rockville, MD 20852 || www.apexhomeloans.com
    • More control than a mortgage broker
    • or large retail bank
    • Owners all on site
    • Full Product Menu
    • Direct Lender
  • Thank You To Our Sponsors
  • Keynote Presentation by John McClain , George Mason Center for Regional Analysis
  • Apex Home Loans March 3, 2011 The Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook John McClain, AICP, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy, George Mason University
  • Quarters After Trough % Change in GDP Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Five Recessions Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, (2009 Recession has 6 th Q added from GI Forecast)
  • U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2006 – 2013 % 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Global Insight Forecast > > > > > > >
  • ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices
  • Annual Change in Payroll Jobs – US Month over-the-Year THOUSANDS Jan = + 550 Source: BLS Establishment Survey, NSA
  • Initial Unemployment Claims 000s (4-week moving average) 402 Feb-11
  • U.S. Unemployment Rate Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted 9.0 % GI FCST 11 – 9.0 12 – 8.5 13 – 7.8 14 – 7.1 15 – 6.6
  • U.S. Housing Trends New & Existing Home Sales Existing (left scale) New (Right Scale) (000s) (000s)
  • L.I. C.I. U.S. Coincident and Leading Indices Nov 2006 – Jan 2011 RECESSION > > >
  • Interest Rates 2001 - 2015 Forecast > > > > > > %
  • Oil Prices $ per barrel $/barrel Source: Global Insight Forecast > > > > > > > >
  • Consumer Confidence 100 Present Situation Expectations Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Jan-11
  • The Washington Economy
  • 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change from Recession Start (12/07) (000s) Washington -22,000 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Last 10 Years (000s) Washington 280,000 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average
  • Washington MSA Coincident Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average
  • 000s Annual Job Change – MOTYC Washington MSA Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Annual Job Change Washington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Dec 09 – Dec 10 (000s) Washington + 57,500 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Job Change by Sector Dec 2009 – Dec 2010 Washington MSA (000s) Total 57,500 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Annual Job Change District of Columbia 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Annual Job Change Northern Virginia 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Annual Job Change Suburban Maryland 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • 9.2 – DC 9.1 – U.S. 6.0 – SMD 5.7 – MSA 4.7 - NVA Unemployment Rate Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
  • 15 Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate November 2010 % US 9.1 Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted 5.7
  • Wages & Salaries Procurement Federal Spending By Type 1984 - 2009 $ Billions
  • DOD Federal Procurement in MSA Projection of Sec. Gates Proposed Cuts $ Billions Source: Census Consolidated Federal Funds Reports
    • - $9.5 Billion
    • 66,000 Jobs
  • Federal Employment Washington Metro Area 000s Eisenhower Kennedy – Johnson Nixon - Ford Carter Reagan Bush 1 Clinton Bush 2 - 22 + 80 + 36 + 18 - 6 + 4 - 42 + 23 Obama +28
  • Housing Market Trends
  • House Price Index Change Q3 2000 – Q3 2010 % Source: FHFA
  • House Price Change Q4 2009 – Q4 2010 % Source: NAR Single Family
  • Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through January 2011 12-Month Moving Average
  • Median House Sales Price Washington MSA Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5.0%/Year
  • Average Sales Price Annual Percent Change Washington MSA All Existing Homes % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-the-Year-Change 2000 – 2010, MSA Jan-May, 2006 >100 % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis % Jan = -17.3%
  • Total Active Listings Per Sale January Each Year – Metro Area Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2008 2009 2010
  • Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All Housing Types % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2008 2009 2010
  • Average Sales Price Percent Change Suburban Maryland All Housing Types % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2008 2009 2010
  • Average Sales Price Percent Change District of Columbia All Housing Types % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2008 2009 2010
  • Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area – Single Family Detached % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2008 2009 2010 2011 Nov %: DC = -7, SM = +5, NV = +1
  • Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area – Single Family Attached % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2008 2009 2010 2011 Nov %: DC = +16, SM = -.2, NV = +2
  • Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area – Condos % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2008 2009 2010 2011 Nov %: DC = -9, SM = -21, NV = -5
  • Washington MSA Building Permits 2000 – 2010, 3-Month Mvg Avg
  • Economic Forecast
  • Employment Change by Sub-state Region (000s ) Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 D.C. 10.1 -0.6 10.5 10.5 9.7 9.3 9.6 9.4 Sub. MD -4.3 -26.8 1.5 15.5 13.6 14.9 15.6 14.6 No. VA 3.6 -24.5 9.5 22.1 20.7 22.3 22.6 20.3 REGION 9.5 -51.9 21.5 48.1 44.0 46.5 47.8 44.2
  • Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) % DC SM MSA NV Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • % Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015 Washington U.S.
    • Nationally most economic measures are positive and gaining momentum, jobs and housing lag
    • Local Economy
      • Good job growth, declining unemployment, and job growth in high-wage sectors
    • Local Housing Market
      • Prices are stable, rising
      • Inventories moderate
      • Given that and with mortgage rates low, sales
      • New housing is yet to recover…later this year & 2012
    SUMMARY
  • policy-cra.gmu.org
  • Local Experienced Independent Spring Housing Briefing