Developing Climate Smart Crops for a 2030 worldClimate smart crops for 2030
2 • 3/21/11  TheChallenge
3 • 3/21/11The concentration of  GHGs is rising                       Long-term implications                        for th...
4 • 3/21/11 Historical impacts on food security                              Observed changes in growing                  ...
5 • 3/21/11    Crop suitability is changing      Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050
6 • 3/21/11    Food security is at risk In order to meet global demands,   we will need    60-70%   more food             ...
7 • 3/21/11                     Message 1:         In the coming decades, climate change          and other global trends ...
8 • 3/21/11      Ecosystem valuation                                      Average price in voluntary                      ...
9 • 3/21/11                CO2 Fertilisation       • Enhanced CO2 fertilisation, with great         potential for some crops
10 • 3/21/11                       Message 2:               With new challenges also come                     new opportun...
11 • 3/21/11Program        Design
12 • 3/21/11               CCAFS: the partnership
13 • 3/21/11     CCAFS objectives                        • Identify and develop pro-poor                          adaptati...
14 • 3/21/11    The CCAFS Framework                                   Adapting Agriculture to                             ...
15 • 3/21/11     THE VISION    To adapt farming    systems, we need    to:    • Close the                        Progressi...
16 • 3/21/11  Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1    Objective One:    Adapted farming systems via integrated    ...
17 • 3/21/11               Why do we need breeding?       • For starters, we have novel climates
18 • 3/21/11 Development of strategiesMilestone 1.2.1.1 Research and policy organizations            Milestone 1.2.1.5 Set...
19 • 3/21/11  Dissemination of strategiesMilestone 1.2.2.1 High-level meetings heldwith key stakeholders resulting inmains...
20 • 3/21/11
21 • 3/21/11               Initial Analysis of Vulnerability                           Andy Jarvis     “Developing Climate...
22 • 3/21/11               Climate change is not new…but is                         accelerating
23 • 3/21/11               Global Climate Models (GCMs) • 21 global climate models in the world, based on   atmospheric sc...
24 • 3/21/11
25 • 3/21/11
26 • 3/21/11                    Changes in Average and                   Variability around the mean                      ...
27 • 3/21/11               Temperatures rise….
28 • 3/21/11               Changes in rainfall…
29 • 3/21/11Areas where maximum temperature during the primary growing seasonis currently < 30°C but will flip to > 30°C b...
30 • 3/21/11               Projected Climate: Andes
31 • 3/21/11                 DIRECT EFFECTS:     elevated levels of Carbon dioxide on potato                         crops...
32 • 3/21/11 Effect of elevated levels of Carbon dioxide on                  potato crops                        Process  ...
33 • 3/21/11Effect of elevated Temperature on potato crops               •Elevated temperatures seems to reduce tuber init...
34 • 3/21/11INDIRECT EFFECT: potato pests and diseases               Baseline                  w/o crop protection 75 % of...
35 • 3/21/11     Changes in the         •alterations in the geographical distribution of     climate are expected   specie...
36 • 3/21/11   Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez
37 • 3/21/11                                   Potato Current Suitability               Kiling temperature (°C)           ...
38 • 3/21/11   Potato Current Suitability and Presence
39 • 3/21/11               Potato Current Climatic Constraints
40 • 3/21/11   Potato Future Suitability and Change                                                 2030s SRES-A1B        ...
41 • 3/21/11                   Potato Breeding Priorities               Rop-Cumulative        Top-Cumulative
42 • 3/21/11                 Potato Impacts by Countries               AND   Andean Region               EAS   East Asia  ...
43 • 3/21/11Late Blight (LB)                    Warmer temperatures with                     some humidity in higher     ...
Potato tuber moth (PTM)44 • 3/21/11                 PTM is actually present in                  interandean valleys and t...
© Neil Palmer (CIAT)     The critical role of crop wild relatives in        45 • 3/21/11      ensuring long-term food secu...
Why conserve CWR diversity?46 • 3/21/11                                                           Use!!                   ...
47 • 3/21/11               Threats
48 • 3/21/11               Impact of climate change on                           CWR                      • Assessment of ...
49 • 3/21/11
50 • 3/21/11                 Summary Impacts       • 16-22% (depending on migration scenario) of         these species pre...
51 • 3/21/11                        Wild relative species               A. batizocoi - 12 germplasm accessions            ...
Impact of Climate Change – Wild52 • 3/21/11                       Peanuts                                   Change in area...
53 • 3/21/11        CWR supporting adaptation but       also threatened by climate change
Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change 54• 3/21/11Collecting, Protecting and Preparing Crop Wild Relatives                ...
© Neil Palmer (CIAT)        55 • 3/21/11                  How well conserved are crop                       wild relatives...
56 • 3/21/11               Why Gap Analysis?    • Tool to assess crop and crop wild relative genetic and      geographical...
57 • 3/21/11               An example in Phaseolus
58 • 3/21/11Herbarium versus germplasm: Geographic
59 • 3/21/11 Herbarium versus germplasm: Taxon
60 • 3/21/11Conserved ex situ richness versus potential
61 • 3/21/11 Priorities: Geographic and taxonomic
62 • 3/21/11           “Validation”: The man versus the                        machine
63 • 3/21/11Model priorities versus expert priorities
64 • 3/21/11               Taxon-level and genepool level                         priorities
Wild Vigna collecting priorities 65 • 3/21/11• Spatial analysis on  current conserved  materials• *Gaps* in current  colle...
66 • 3/21/11                           stay in touch                         www.ccafs.cgiar.org               sign up for...
67 • 3/21/11
68 • 3/21/11                   Sweetpotato Current Suitability               Kiling temperature (°C)             -0.4   Gr...
69 • 3/21/11   Sweetpotato Current Suitability and Presence
70 • 3/21/11               Sweetpotato Current Climatic Constraints
71 • 3/21/11   Sweetpotato Future Suitability and Change                                                     2030s SRES-A1...
72 • 3/21/11               Sweetpotato Breeding Priorities               Rop-Cumulative      Top-Cumulative
73 • 3/21/11                 Sweetpotato Impacts by Countries           AND   Andean Region               EAS   East Asia ...
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Andy Jarvis' presentation in the framework of the expert consultation on the use of crop wild relatives for pre-breeding in potato

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The expert consultation on the use of crop wild relatives for pre-breeding in potato was a workshop organized by the Global Crop Diversity Trust in collaboration with CIP and took place from the 22nd – 24th of February 2012.

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  • For Lobell map: Values show the linear trend in temperature for the main crop grown in that grid cell, and for the months in which that crop is grown. Values indicate the trend in terms of multiples of the standard deviation of historical year-to-year variation. ** A 1˚C rise tended to lower yields by up to 10% except in high latitude countries, where in particular rice gains from warming. ** In India, warming may explain the recently slowing of yield gains. For yield graph: Estimated net impact of climate trends for 1980-2008 on crop yields for major producers and for global production. Values are expressed as percent of average yield. Gray bars show median estimate and error bars show 5-95% confidence interval from bootstrap resampling with 500 replicates. Red and blue dots show median estimate of impact for T trend and P trend, respectively. ** At the global scale, maize and wheat exhibited negative impacts for several major producers and global net loss of 3.8% and 5.5% relative to what would have been achieved without the climate trends in 1980-2008. In absolute terms, these equal the annual production of maize in Mexico (23 MT) and wheat in France (33 MT), respectively. Source: Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980 David B. Lobell 1 , , Wolfram Schlenker 2 , 3 , and Justin Costa-Roberts 1 Science magazine
  • Why focus on Food security And climate change has to be set in the context of growing populations and changing diets 60-70% more food will be needed by 2050 because of population growth and changing diets – and this is in a context where climate change will make agriculture more difficult.
  • Carbon becomes a commodity, and a profitable one at that. Can smallholders get a piece of the action?
  • Challenge Program then CGIAR Research Program Theme Leaders spread across CG system and the global change community in advanced research institutes New way of working – deliberately networked
  • RUE=radiation use eficiency or radiation transformed into biomass; WUE=water use efficiency. I did not listed the impact of O3, which seems to be deleterious for the crops were analyzed in growth chambers
  • RUE=radiation use eficiency or radiation transformed into biomass; WUE=water use efficiency. I did not listed the impact of O3, which seems to be deleterious for the crops were analyzed in growth chambers
  • RUE=radiation use eficiency or radiation transformed into biomass; WUE=water use efficiency. I did not listed the impact of O3, which seems to be deleterious for the crops were analyzed in growth chambers
  • As temperature increases, an erratic humidity, the likelihood of pest and diseases is expected to augment. Late blight is a devastating water mold that affect potato and one of the main causes of the well-known Great Irish famine. LB is climbing up the Andean highlands already. This slides shows the scenario for 2050 for Peru and the second one highlights the areas above 3000 m asl where today is virtually absent and where only poor farmers crop the land.
  • PTM is another major potato disease of global importance. The prognosis for the near future is not good, as can be seen from the scenarios mapped.
  • Collaboration with RBG Kew
  • Transcript of "Andy Jarvis' presentation in the framework of the expert consultation on the use of crop wild relatives for pre-breeding in potato"

    1. 1. Developing Climate Smart Crops for a 2030 worldClimate smart crops for 2030
    2. 2. 2 • 3/21/11 TheChallenge
    3. 3. 3 • 3/21/11The concentration of GHGs is rising Long-term implications for the climate and for crop suitability
    4. 4. 4 • 3/21/11 Historical impacts on food security Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008. Lobell et al (2011) % Yield impact for wheat
    5. 5. 5 • 3/21/11 Crop suitability is changing Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050
    6. 6. 6 • 3/21/11 Food security is at risk In order to meet global demands, we will need 60-70% more food by 2050.
    7. 7. 7 • 3/21/11 Message 1: In the coming decades, climate change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security, and rural livelihoods.
    8. 8. 8 • 3/21/11 Ecosystem valuation Average price in voluntary carbon markets ($/tCO2e) 2006 2007 2008 Spot the livestock! Left: Example of a silvo-pastoral system
    9. 9. 9 • 3/21/11 CO2 Fertilisation • Enhanced CO2 fertilisation, with great potential for some crops
    10. 10. 10 • 3/21/11 Message 2: With new challenges also come new opportunities.
    11. 11. 11 • 3/21/11Program Design
    12. 12. 12 • 3/21/11 CCAFS: the partnership
    13. 13. 13 • 3/21/11 CCAFS objectives • Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food systems. • Support the inclusion of agricultural issues in climate change policies, and of climate issues in agricultural policies, at all levels.
    14. 14. 14 • 3/21/11 The CCAFS Framework Adapting Agriculture to Climate Variability and Change Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for: Improved 2.Adaptation to Progressive Climate Environmental Improved Change Health Rural 3.Adaptation through Managing Climate Livelihoods Risk Improved 4.Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation Food Security 4. Integration for Decision Making Trade •Linking Knowledge with Action - of f s a nd Sy •Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and nergie s Planning •Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, natural resource management, and food systems
    15. 15. 15 • 3/21/11 THE VISION To adapt farming systems, we need to: • Close the Progressive production gap by effectively using current technologies, practices and policies • Increase the Adaptation bar: develop new ways to increase food production potential • Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level
    16. 16. 16 • 3/21/11 Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climates Objective Three: Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity
    17. 17. 17 • 3/21/11 Why do we need breeding? • For starters, we have novel climates
    18. 18. 18 • 3/21/11 Development of strategiesMilestone 1.2.1.1 Research and policy organizations Milestone 1.2.1.5 Set of “virtual crops” designedactively engaged in research design; one regional and assessed for their efficacy in addressing thebreeding strategy workshop involving regional likely future conditions in terms of the economic,decision-making and priority setting bodies delivered social and cultural benefits expected; findingsin each of 3 initial target regions (2011) presented in summary report and journal article. Engagement of ARI modeling groups (e.g. Leeds Milestone 1.2.1.2 Crop breeding institutions University), NARES scientists (2014) coordinated in development of climate-proofed crops for a 2030-2050 world; Document written Milestone 1.2.1.4 Detailed crop-by-crop strategies jointly by CCAFS and crop breeding institutions and plans of action for crop improvement outlining coordinated plans for breeding. (2012) developed, incorporating portfolio of national, regional and global priorities; findings presented in summary report (2015) Milestone 1.2.1.3 Range of crop modeling approaches developed and evaluated for biotic and abiotic constraints for the period 2020 to 2050; Milestone 1.2.1.6 Set of breeding strategies findings presented in summary report and at key identified and socialized with funding bodies, stakeholders meetings ; including modelling national and international organizations, approaches to evaluate the impacts of climate universities and other actors; findings presented in change and the effects of adaptation technologies summary report and policy briefs (including such as supplemental irrigation and water harvesting percentage of total food crop production (in recent on water availability for crops and their productivity history) accounted for by set of breeding strategies) under decadal futures from 2020 to 2050 (2013). (2015)
    19. 19. 19 • 3/21/11 Dissemination of strategiesMilestone 1.2.2.1 High-level meetings heldwith key stakeholders resulting inmainstreaming of new breeding strategies inworkplans and existing breeding programs.(2015) Milestone 1.2.2.2 Global, regional and national policy briefs produced for investments in climate-proofed crop breeding initiatives (2015) Milestone 1.2.2.3 (2015) One policy briefing meeting per region based on the briefs in 1.2.2.2. Milestone 1.2.3.1 Policy recommendations provided to national agencies, policy makers and key actors in the agricultural sector on how to target strategies to enable equitable access by different social groups (e.g. pastoralists, fishers, urban farmers) and by women and men. (2015)
    20. 20. 20 • 3/21/11
    21. 21. 21 • 3/21/11 Initial Analysis of Vulnerability Andy Jarvis “Developing Climate-Smart Crops for a 2030 World” Workshop ILRI, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 6-8 December 2011
    22. 22. 22 • 3/21/11 Climate change is not new…but is accelerating
    23. 23. 23 • 3/21/11 Global Climate Models (GCMs) • 21 global climate models in the world, based on atmospheric sciences, chemistry, biology, and a touch of astrology • Run from the past to present to calibrate, then into the future • Run using different emissions scenarios
    24. 24. 24 • 3/21/11
    25. 25. 25 • 3/21/11
    26. 26. 26 • 3/21/11 Changes in Average and Variability around the mean +Climate Baseline _ Timescale Short (change in baseline and variability) Long
    27. 27. 27 • 3/21/11 Temperatures rise….
    28. 28. 28 • 3/21/11 Changes in rainfall…
    29. 29. 29 • 3/21/11Areas where maximum temperature during the primary growing seasonis currently < 30°C but will flip to > 30°C by 2050Areas where rainfall per day decreases by 10 % or more between 2000 and 2050.
    30. 30. 30 • 3/21/11 Projected Climate: Andes
    31. 31. 31 • 3/21/11 DIRECT EFFECTS: elevated levels of Carbon dioxide on potato crops Leaf Processes Increased CO2 Photosynthetic rate •When exposed for a short period -substantial increment •Down regulation when grown continuously in elevated CO2 Stomatal conductance •Decreases at elevated CO2 •Expected to increase WUE Leaf Protein, •Contradictory responses, probably associated to cultivar differences Chlorophyll content Starch / CHO content •Increases with long-term exposure to elevated CO2
    32. 32. 32 • 3/21/11 Effect of elevated levels of Carbon dioxide on potato crops Process Increased CO2 Changes in plant growth •Stimulates both above- and below-ground biomass (early growing season) and development •Period of active plant growth ends prematurely •Senescence begins earlier •Limited growth rates towards the end of growing season Effects on crop yield •Tuber yield stimulated and magnitude varies with cultivar and growing conditions •Increase number of tubers Effects on tuber quality •Increased tuber DM & starch content •Reduced tuber N and glycoalkaloid content
    33. 33. 33 • 3/21/11Effect of elevated Temperature on potato crops •Elevated temperatures seems to reduce tuber initiation •Temperature above the desired ones reduce the photosynthetic efficiency, thus reducing potato growth •High temperature may also reduce the ability of the plant to translocate photosynthates to the tuber •Elevated temperature increases DM partitioning to stems but reduces root, stolon, tuber and total DM and total tuber number •Offset the CO2 fertilization effect
    34. 34. 34 • 3/21/11INDIRECT EFFECT: potato pests and diseases Baseline w/o crop protection 75 % of potato production today would be lost to pests Major factors likely to •increased CO2, influence plant disease •heavy and unseasonal rains, severity and spread •increased humidity, droughts and hurricanes, •warmer winter temperatures
    35. 35. 35 • 3/21/11 Changes in the •alterations in the geographical distribution of climate are expected species, to produce •increase overwintering, •changes in population growth rates, •increase the number of generations per season, •extension of the development season, •changes in crop-pest synchrony, •increase risk of invasion by migration pests, •may cause the appearance of new thermophilic species, •changes in the physiology of pathogens/insects and host plants, •changes in host plants resistance to infection/infestation, •critical temperature/infection threshold, •modification of pathogen aggressiveness and/ or host susceptibility
    36. 36. 36 • 3/21/11 Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez
    37. 37. 37 • 3/21/11 Potato Current Suitability Kiling temperature (°C) -0.80 Growing season (days) 120 Minimum absolute temperature (°C) 3.75 Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 150.00 Minimum optimum temperature (°C) 12.40 Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 251.25 Maximum optimum temperature (°C) 17.80 Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 326.50 Maximum absolute temperature (°C) 24.00 Maximum absolute rainfall (mm) 785.50
    38. 38. 38 • 3/21/11 Potato Current Suitability and Presence
    39. 39. 39 • 3/21/11 Potato Current Climatic Constraints
    40. 40. 40 • 3/21/11 Potato Future Suitability and Change 2030s SRES-A1B 2030s SRES-A1B
    41. 41. 41 • 3/21/11 Potato Breeding Priorities Rop-Cumulative Top-Cumulative
    42. 42. 42 • 3/21/11 Potato Impacts by Countries AND Andean Region EAS East Asia NEU North Europe WAF West Africa BRA Brazil EAF East Africa SAF South Africa WEU West Europe CAC Cen. America and Caribean EEU East Europe SAH Sahel OCE Oceania CAF Central Africa WAS West Asia SAS South Asia SAM South Latin America CAS Central Asia NAF North Africa SEA Southeast Asia CEU Central Europe NAM North America SEU South Europe Change in Suitable Area Overall Suitability Change PIA/NIA ratio
    43. 43. 43 • 3/21/11Late Blight (LB)  Warmer temperatures with some humidity in higher grounds will increase the presence of potato late blight.  High incidence of LB in the future (2050) above 3000 masl (highlighted in the map) where it is virtually absent today
    44. 44. Potato tuber moth (PTM)44 • 3/21/11  PTM is actually present in interandean valleys and the coastal areas of the Andes  PTM is expected to climb as well due to climate change
    45. 45. © Neil Palmer (CIAT) The critical role of crop wild relatives in 45 • 3/21/11 ensuring long-term food security and their need for conservation
    46. 46. Why conserve CWR diversity?46 • 3/21/11 Use!! 234 papers cited Maxted and Kell, 2009 • Use: 39% pest resistance; 17% abiotic stress; 13% yield increase • Citations: 2% <1970; 13% 1970s; 15% 1980s; 32% 1990s; 38% >1999
    47. 47. 47 • 3/21/11 Threats
    48. 48. 48 • 3/21/11 Impact of climate change on CWR • Assessment of shifts in distribution range under climate change • Wild potatoes • Wild African Vigna • Wild peanuts
    49. 49. 49 • 3/21/11
    50. 50. 50 • 3/21/11 Summary Impacts • 16-22% (depending on migration scenario) of these species predicted to go extinct • Most species losing over 50% of their range size • Wild peanuts were the most affected group, with 24 to 31 of 51 species projected to go extinct • For wild potato, 7 to 13 of 108 species were predicted to go extinct • Vigna was the least affected of the three groups, losing 0 to 2 of the 48 species in the genus
    51. 51. 51 • 3/21/11 Wild relative species A. batizocoi - 12 germplasm accessions A. cardenasii - 17 germplasm accessions A. diogoi - 5 germplasm accessions Florunner, with no root- knot nematode resistance COAN, with population density of root-knot nematodes >90% less than in Florunner
    52. 52. Impact of Climate Change – Wild52 • 3/21/11 Peanuts Change in area Predicted state Species of distribution (%) in 2055 batizocoi -100 Extinct cardenasii -100 Extinct correntina -100 Extinct decora -100 Extinct diogoi -100 Extinct duranensis -91 Threatened glandulifera -17 Stable helodes -100 Extinct hoehnii -100 Extinct k empff-mercadoi -69 Near-Threatened k uhlmannii -100 Extinct magna -100 Extinct microsperma -100 Extinct palustris -100 Extinct praecox -100 Extinct stenosperma -86 Threatened villosa -51 Near-Threatened
    53. 53. 53 • 3/21/11 CWR supporting adaptation but also threatened by climate change
    54. 54. Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change 54• 3/21/11Collecting, Protecting and Preparing Crop Wild Relatives project
    55. 55. © Neil Palmer (CIAT) 55 • 3/21/11 How well conserved are crop wild relatives? Gap Analysis
    56. 56. 56 • 3/21/11 Why Gap Analysis? • Tool to assess crop and crop wild relative genetic and geographical diversity • Allows detecting incomplete species collections as well as defining which species should be collected and where these collections should be focused • Assesses the current extent at which the ex situ conservation system is correctly holding the genetic diversity of a particular genepool
    57. 57. 57 • 3/21/11 An example in Phaseolus
    58. 58. 58 • 3/21/11Herbarium versus germplasm: Geographic
    59. 59. 59 • 3/21/11 Herbarium versus germplasm: Taxon
    60. 60. 60 • 3/21/11Conserved ex situ richness versus potential
    61. 61. 61 • 3/21/11 Priorities: Geographic and taxonomic
    62. 62. 62 • 3/21/11 “Validation”: The man versus the machine
    63. 63. 63 • 3/21/11Model priorities versus expert priorities
    64. 64. 64 • 3/21/11 Taxon-level and genepool level priorities
    65. 65. Wild Vigna collecting priorities 65 • 3/21/11• Spatial analysis on current conserved materials• *Gaps* in current collections• Definition and prioritisation of collecting areas• 8 100x100km cells to complete collections of 23 wild Vigna priority species
    66. 66. 66 • 3/21/11 stay in touch www.ccafs.cgiar.org sign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate
    67. 67. 67 • 3/21/11
    68. 68. 68 • 3/21/11 Sweetpotato Current Suitability Kiling temperature (°C) -0.4 Growing season (days) 120 Minimum absolute temperature (°C) 2.4 Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 100 Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 300 Minimum optimum temperature (°C) 10.2 Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 1500 Maximum absoluterainfall (mm) 2760 Maximum optimum temperature (°C) 23.8
    69. 69. 69 • 3/21/11 Sweetpotato Current Suitability and Presence
    70. 70. 70 • 3/21/11 Sweetpotato Current Climatic Constraints
    71. 71. 71 • 3/21/11 Sweetpotato Future Suitability and Change 2030s SRES-A1B 2030s SRES-A1B
    72. 72. 72 • 3/21/11 Sweetpotato Breeding Priorities Rop-Cumulative Top-Cumulative
    73. 73. 73 • 3/21/11 Sweetpotato Impacts by Countries AND Andean Region EAS East Asia NEU North Europe WAF West Africa BRA Brazil EAF East Africa SAF South Africa WEU West Europe CAC Cen. America and Caribean EEU East Europe SAH Sahel OCE Oceania CAF Central Africa WAS West Asia SAS South Asia SAM South Latin America CAS Central Asia NAF North Africa SEA Southeast Asia CEU Central Europe NAM North America SEU South Europe

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