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Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
Yen Carry Trade
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Yen Carry Trade

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  • 1. Yen Carry Trade
    Amandeep Singh Kalra
    CharuMishra
    Harsh Advani
    Manpreet Singh
    MayankAgrawal
  • 2. JAPANESE ECONOMY
    Pre World War II period:
    • A rural agrarian society
    • 3. Need for Industrialization
    • 4. New Western-based education system for all young people.
    • 5. The government also built railroads, improved roads, and inaugurated a land reform program.
    • 6. A banking system was started with the establishment of the Bank of Japan and yen was introduced.
  • World War :
    • The war left the Japanese economy destroyed
    • 7. World War II wiped out many of the gains Japan had made since 1868
    • 8. About 40 percent of the nation's industrial plants and infrastructure were destroyed, and production reverted to levels of about fifteen years earlier
  • Post War Period:
    • Korean War boosted Japan's economy as Japan became the supplier of goods needed for war.
    • 9. The yen was pegged at 1 USD = ¥360 in April 1949. It remained at this value for a period of 22 years until 1971
    • 10. Payments from the U.S. government bolstered the Japanese economy, amounting to 27 percent of Japan’s total export trade
  • 1960’s Boom
    • Between 1953 and 1965:
    • 11. GDP expanded by more than 9 percent per year
    • 12. Manufacturing and mining by 13 percent
    • 13. Construction by 11 percent
    • 14. Infrastructure by 12 percent
    1985- Plaza Accord
    2000 onwards:
    • In 2001, however, the economy slid back into recession because of domestic problems as well as international factors
    • 15. In the 1st quarter of 2008, Japanese exports grew by 19.5%
  • Current Statistics of Japanese Economy
    Key Facts:
    Services : 72%
    Industrial : 26.4%
    Agricultural : 1.4%
    Trading Partners
    US, China, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong
    Economic Statistics
    ^As of March 2009 ^^As of April 2009 ^^^ May 2009
  • 16.
  • 17. Trade with US
  • 18. Introduction to Carry Trade
    In general terms the carry of an asset is the positive return received from holding it. For example, the interest received from a term-deposit account.
    The term 'carry trade' refers specifically to interest rates and currencies , between countries.
    Carry trade is the name of the strategy of going short in a low-interest rate currency and simultaneously long in a high-interest rate currency
    Each country sets its own interest rate, theoretically based upon the money supply and inflation. 
  • 19. Basics of Carry Trade
    Funding Currency
    Currency with low interest rates
    Target Currency
    Currency with high rate interest (high yield asset)
    Carry to risk Ratio
    It adjusts the interest rate differential by the risk of future exchange rate movements, where this risk is proxied by the expected volatility (implied by foreign exchange options) of the relevant currency pair.
  • 20. Implementation of Carry Trade
    exchanging borrowed funds into the target currency in the spot market
    derivative contracts, including foreign exchange futures, forwards and interest rate swaps.
    Bonds
    Profit = I(f) – I (j) + E (1) – E (0)
    Participants:
    Hedge Funds, pension funds, charitable endowments, investment banks, and wealthy individuals
  • 21. CARRY TRADE
    “Low Volatility” required.
    Exchange rate stability, reduces Risk appetite of investors
    “Interest Rate Arbitrage”
    differential Interest rate
    “Bad news is actually good news for Yen”
    More depreciation of Yen
  • 22. Example
    Suppose a carry trader is looking for differential profit between GBP/JPY.
    One lot size (=100000) is bought of GBP/JPY
    Interest rates :GBP-5%, JPY-.25%
    Interest profit :$4750 approx ( USD/JPY =90)
    ( Buy/Sell 204.73/221.25)
  • 23.
  • 24. Brief History
    In 1990-91 recession in US led to drop in interest rates.
    Search for yield led to Latin American and Asian investments.(Dollar carry trade)
    By mid 1990’s reversal happened in the US and also marked start of Yen carry trade.
  • 25. What led to Yen Carry Trade?
    Excess Domestic reserves.
    (Mrs. Watanabe aka $15 trillion)
    External Asset /Liability structure of Japanese banks.
    Japan “Premium”
    Due to structural weakness of Japanese Banks
    BOJ easy monetary policy(ZIRP).
  • 26. Signals towards Yen Carry trade
    DAILY TURNOVER(JPY)
  • 27. Where does the money go?
    North America, OECD Countries, Offshore centers(OFC’s), and Emerging Asia total 90% of this money.
    “Round Tripping Operation”
    Moving money in different currencies and bringing it back to home
    Role of Caribbean OFC’s?
    Hedge Fund established in Cayman Island
  • 28. Cumulative net flows via Banks :Q2 2002-Q1 2007
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32. Hedge Fund Strategies
    Trade on a basket on currencies.
    Build a portfolio on currencies such that loss in one can be made up by others.
    Complex Neural network based Algorithmic programming to time the entry/exit of trades.
  • 33. Pros & Cons of Carry Trade
    Potential “Bubble” creation
    East Asian crisis spillover effects to Brazil and Russia.
    Contagion effect. “George Soros”
    Unwinding
    Capital Flow
    Savings Rich Japan to High demand.
    Providesshorttermliquidity.
  • 34. INTEREST RATES
  • 35. Unwinding
    Interest Rate difference between the two countries becomes minimal thus there exists no incentive to borrow Yen and invest overseas.
    Thus, Japanese Investors have started to sell their dollar and Euro investments and return their money to Japan.
    It impacts many currencies/markets as the carried yen is touring the globe.
    This means the Yen has been appreciating.
    Rise of Interest Rates in the funding currency
  • 36. Because the Yen is rising, the Yen Carry trade becomes unprofitable, investors could lose substantial money if the Yen rises against the dollar and Euro.
    Therefore, with the Yen rising, people are selling their foreign investments and ending their carry trade. This increases demand for Yen even more, causing a further rise in the Yen.
    UNWINDING-------the avalanche
  • 37. Effects of Unwinding
    Falling of Global Stock Markets
    Cascading Effect
    Selling of foreign currency to repay Yen loans
    Domestic Exports hampered
    Further rate cuts, with no scopes left
    Currency Crisis
  • 38. Unwinding of Yen Carry Trade
    Sharp Appreciation of Yen
    October 1998
    May 2006
    February 2007
  • 39. October 1998
  • 40. October 1998
    LTCM debacle
    Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) a U.S. Hedge Funds
    Trades were conducted through a partnership with  Bear Stearns and client relations were handled by Merrill Lynch
    D/E = 25:1, off balance sheet derivative notional value of $1.25 trillion
    Russia declared it was devaluing its currency and basically defaulting on its bonds, In response, the U.S. stock market dropped 20%, while European markets fell 35%.
  • 41. The short Yen carry positions - which had been used to leverage up LTCM's arbitrage activities - had to be paid back, and the USD/JPY fell (Yen strengthened) - initially very fast(9%), then by a more steeper(12%) drop. 
    LTCM lost 50% of its capital value. Bankruptcy.
    Tiger Hedge fund lost $2 bn. Bankrupt.
  • 42. February 2007
    Harshly reminded carry trade is not purely based on interest rates but also on expectations.
    “Sub-prime mortgage” fears.
    Equity and commodities markets tumbled.
    Parallel retail buying gained strength.
    Caught BOJ off gaurd - led to Yen appreciation
    Margin Calls of leveraged accounts forced large scale unwinding
    Increase in Interest rate by BOJ to 0.5%
  • 43.
  • 44. Dollar carry trade/Potential fears.
    Decrease of interest rates to near zero levels by FED.
    Dollar in international reserve asset / Depreciation would hurt economies.
    AUD/USD, NZD/USD, CHF/USD carry trade fears grew.
    Dollar unwinding could have massive “network” effects.
  • 45. THANK YOU !!!!!!!

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